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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)

David Dodds said:
added 1,000 CENX at 6.13. I am pleased with this, but it could go lower.
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Added 500 earlier at $6.18 and another 1000 FREE. Sold 200 HEB at a loss, still hold 100. Done for the day as I need to leave some ammo for later in the week.
 
I'm sure you guys are aware, but I just got an alert saying FREE is pricing a secondary offering of $15.7m tomorrow. At the price it is now, that's almost 7m shares. Just an FYI.

 
Revo said:
I'm sure you guys are aware, but I just got an alert saying FREE is pricing a secondary offering of $15.7m tomorrow. At the price it is now, that's almost 7m shares. Just an FYI.
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Hmmm...I'm in for 1000 and did not know. May need to exit as this will likely hold the price down for a while.
 
Calendar Of Equity Issues Expected To Price This Week

Last update: 7/21/2009 11:15:53 AM

Secondary or Follow-On Offerings:

BRF-Brasil Foods SA (PDA) - 57.5 million American depositary shares expected to price Tuesday via UBS Securities, JPMorgan Securities and Santander Investment.

Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF) - $100 million in stock expected to price Tuesday via Sandler O'Neill.

CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF) - $115 million in shares expected to price Tuesday via Keefe Bruyette & Woods and Sandler O'Neill.

Bemis Co. Inc. (BMS) - 7.5 million shares expected to price Wednesday via Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo Securities.

FreeSeas Inc. (FREE) - $15.7 million in shares expected to price Wednesday via Dahlman Rose.

Ruby Tuesday Inc. (RT) - 10 million shares expected to price Wednesday via Wells Fargo Securities and Merrill Lynch.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

 
Revo said:
Calendar Of Equity Issues Expected To Price This Week

Last update: 7/21/2009 11:15:53 AM

Secondary or Follow-On Offerings:

BRF-Brasil Foods SA (PDA) - 57.5 million American depositary shares expected to price Tuesday via UBS Securities, JPMorgan Securities and Santander Investment.

Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF) - $100 million in stock expected to price Tuesday via Sandler O'Neill.

CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF) - $115 million in shares expected to price Tuesday via Keefe Bruyette & Woods and Sandler O'Neill.

Bemis Co. Inc. (BMS) - 7.5 million shares expected to price Wednesday via Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo Securities.

FreeSeas Inc. (FREE) - $15.7 million in shares expected to price Wednesday via Dahlman Rose.

Ruby Tuesday Inc. (RT) - 10 million shares expected to price Wednesday via Wells Fargo Securities and Merrill Lynch.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
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sold 6000 shares @2.201. don't feel like messing with a dilution this far out from earnings
 
iowa clubbers said:
Revo said:
Calendar Of Equity Issues Expected To Price This Week

Last update: 7/21/2009 11:15:53 AM

Secondary or Follow-On Offerings:

BRF-Brasil Foods SA (PDA) - 57.5 million American depositary shares expected to price Tuesday via UBS Securities, JPMorgan Securities and Santander Investment.

Central Pacific Financial Corp. (CPF) - $100 million in stock expected to price Tuesday via Sandler O'Neill.

CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF) - $115 million in shares expected to price Tuesday via Keefe Bruyette & Woods and Sandler O'Neill.

Bemis Co. Inc. (BMS) - 7.5 million shares expected to price Wednesday via Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo Securities.

FreeSeas Inc. (FREE) - $15.7 million in shares expected to price Wednesday via Dahlman Rose.

Ruby Tuesday Inc. (RT) - 10 million shares expected to price Wednesday via Wells Fargo Securities and Merrill Lynch.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
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sold 6000 shares @2.201. don't feel like messing with a dilution this far out from earnings
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Me too, I'm out...
 
siffoin said:
The Ref said:
David Dodds said:
sold 1,000 EEV at 17.94....market is fighting back
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2/3d's of earnings are beating the street.The Stimulus in the Asia is really starting to work, and they can afford it.

The USD Index broke support to the downside and we are printing $$ to beat the band.

The S&P Broke the 200 day moving avg.

The Greatest Company in the world IMHO can't keep macbooks on the shelf, sells millions of Ipods, and has a product that everyone in the world wants and then sells additional applications for said products releases earnings tonight.

And you want to short the emerging markets?

Don't get me wrong, it's not going to rain tulips and rainbows forever, but I question the timing of some of you in here.
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First of all I'm (in the short term) neutral the market...so have no opinion one way or the other right now.Second...I'm not a follower of FA... but would love to gain some insight on the following from your statement.

#1: Are most of these upside earnings beating from a revised lower forecast? Like yesterday's morning headline: "Halliburton 2Q Earnings Plummet, Beat Expectations"

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/07/20...urton.html?_r=2

And if they are then shouldn't some of the enthusiasm be tempered?

#2: Are the earnings due to companies actually selling MORE of their goods and services or are the earnings due to cost cutting measures like laying off employees? Cost cutting measure can only work for so long...don't you agree?

#3: This link is a end of moth data page from Standard and Poors:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/si...,0,0,0,0,0.html

Scroll down to the "S&P 500 Statistics As of June 30, 2009" section and look at the PE Ratio based on "as reported earning of June 30, 2009"

The P/E Ration for the SP500 is: 134.

The seems concerning and doesn't sound like a bargain to me...does it to you?
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Kind of having a busy day here so I'll try and expand on this later. But quickly.1. Stocks are beating much reduced lower forecasts. Companies are showing positive operating leverage. See #2 as the rest is related.

2. Some companies are showing better perfromance on the revenue line, but there is no doubt that a lot of the cost cutting measures are what are driving profits on the bottom line. Thats bad for unemployment over the short term, but it makes stocks as an asset class valuable so long as the company can maintain it's profit margin. If the expense base grows faster then the revneue base thats a bad thing for a stock regardless of the overall economy.

3. I'm not sure that I follow #3. Are you saying the combioned price to earnins ratio as of 6/30 is 134? So the S&P basket of stocks as a whole is going to make $6.86 a year on a june close of ~919?

 
PRGN up big. SBLK doing squat. I should have never wronged Paragon. They are the cream of the crop.

That was a nice switch yesterday. :moneybag:

 
Can anyone point me to what it says about the FREE equity offering? I think I have to try and leverage out of my position here, but really don't want too

 
Mose said:
Did you sell your FREE, David? They diluted, but doesn't that mean they have more cash on hand now?
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It sounds like they will begin diluting Wednesday. No I am have a boatload of shares...seemed super cheap and I am up on them, but unclear what to do this second. I just put in a sell of 5,000 at $2.20 to lessen my position here. I am hping to get a link to the real story as I can't find it
 
Why would someone DILUTE pre-earnings. wow that is shady. This is the one thing I will say about PRGN. I do not see them diluting this quarter at all. I think SBLK definitely could.

 
This is not great for FREE either.

"In addition, the Company announced that it expects off-hire days relating to technical and operational occurrences during the second quarter of 2009 to reduce the Company's income from operations for the quarter by approximately $1 million to $1.5 million in the aggregate. The Company intends to seek to recover a portion of this amount, although there can be no assurances that it will be successful in recovering all or any portion of it."

 
Still holding my 4300 PRGN and 125 (lol) HEB ... tempted to jump off of HEB, but the whole reason I'm in this thing is for the upside ... may as well stick this out ...

 
DD, any thoughts on CNB? It's quite a bit lower than when you were trading it, but I can't find much news on it other than that they sold 21 Nevada branches.

 
This is LJ said:
eoMMan said:
eoMMan said:
Random said:
Am I the only one still holding HEB??? :thumbup:
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I still have some. I'm going to sell 80% of it at $3.15 (if it gets there) and hold the other 20% for the JACKPOT.
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It went through. :thumbup:
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Insane action at that level. Someone just came in and nuked a 22k share sell order within seconds.
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HFS another 38k sell orders filled by the time I wrote this post. This stock is rocking. WTF?
 
I found the SEC Filing

FREE SEC Filing

There is some BAD news in this too about a bad 2nd quarter where they had days of unchartered vessels. I was able to move 5,000 shares at $2.20. Stock is plummeting now, but I am going to hold for at least $2.20/share here (probably stupid). Aaargh....so frustrating

 
eoMMan said:
DD, any thoughts on CNB? It's quite a bit lower than when you were trading it, but I can't find much news on it other than that they sold 21 Nevada branches.
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It's a buy at these levels. You can just hold and wait it out, but it will rebound strongly at some point. The govt won't let this bank fail. I am thinking of adding shares today.
 
eoMMan said:
DD, any thoughts on CNB? It's quite a bit lower than when you were trading it, but I can't find much news on it other than that they sold 21 Nevada branches.
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For what it's worth, RF missed their earnings this morning. RF is based in Birmingham and CNB is out of Montgomery. Both have pretty heavy exposure in Florida and are suffering accordingly. Likely the RF news is putting additional pressure on CNB. I do think RF is the stronger bank. Several people I know who have relatives who work for CNB have been hearing FDIC rumors. That's of course with any bank that is in trouble and likely means nothing but it's a high risk/high reward play.
 
St. Louis Bob said:
I keep hearing about a "second housing bubble" that will be caused by the increase in unemployment.Thoughts?
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I see it as a more than likely scenario. Not that I'm personally looking, but have you looked at classified ads for jobs recently? OOOssh!! I can't recall a time in my life that they have looked so thin. I know alot of people in the trades and they are all hurting for hours, doing side jobs, or just plain out of work. I can't imagine being a just out of college kid and trying to land that first job-career. I would definetly be a little jaded.One other point, you were talking about the second housing bubble but what about whats going to happen to commercial real estate?? Double OOOssh!! All i see is vacancy signs everywhere.holy 3.50 heb!!! selling at 2.75 not making me feel any better right now. Hopefully it will be back at 2.00 in a week or two and we can capitalize again.
 
optionmaven said:
St. Louis Bob said:
I keep hearing about a "second housing bubble" that will be caused by the increase in unemployment.

Thoughts?
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I see it as a more than likely scenario. Not that I'm personally looking, but have you looked at classified ads for jobs recently? OOOssh!! I can't recall a time in my life that they have looked so thin. I know alot of people in the trades and they are all hurting for hours, doing side jobs, or just plain out of work. I can't imagine being a just out of college kid and trying to land that first job-career. I would definetly be a little jaded.One other point, you were talking about the second housing bubble but what about whats going to happen to commercial real estate?? Double OOOssh!! All i see is vacancy signs everywhere.

holy 3.50 heb!!! selling at 2.75 not making me feel any better right now. Hopefully it will be back at 2.00 in a week or two and we can capitalize again.
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Good point. Unfortunately I'm used to seeing a lot of vacant commercial around here.
 
optionmaven said:
St. Louis Bob said:
I keep hearing about a "second housing bubble" that will be caused by the increase in unemployment.Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I see it as a more than likely scenario. Not that I'm personally looking, but have you looked at classified ads for jobs recently? OOOssh!! I can't recall a time in my life that they have looked so thin. I know alot of people in the trades and they are all hurting for hours, doing side jobs, or just plain out of work. I can't imagine being a just out of college kid and trying to land that first job-career. I would definetly be a little jaded.One other point, you were talking about the second housing bubble but what about whats going to happen to commercial real estate?? Double OOOssh!! All i see is vacancy signs everywhere.holy 3.50 heb!!! selling at 2.75 not making me feel any better right now. Hopefully it will be back at 2.00 in a week or two and we can capitalize again.
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Yes, it's coming and with it, more bank failures.
 
It's official - I suck. I exit HEB yesterday. I plow my money into FREE without looking at the SEC filing. Now stubbornly don't want to sell it at a loss (which I know is the wrong answer). CRAP.

 
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