My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

[This is LJ]

FEED

Chart looks bearish at this point. We stagnated at the highs 4 the past four trading sessions (before today), and have had three straight days of lower lows. RSI and MACD are also set for imminent bearish crosses. If we continue dropping, the next support is at 5.42 and after that 5.01. Only about 3% potential upside to the next support, so I'm going to hold off on shorting it tomorrow morning, unless I get a good entry. I like this stock a lot long term, but I think if you wait a bit, you'll be looking at a much better entry point. This will drift down on low volume. When do they report?

I think your chart is broken.FEED $5.88 +.26 + 4.28%I'm not sure when they report, but I hope it's after PRGN (it won't be).

I'm still standing by my recommendation. I'd love to short here, but E-Trade doesn't have the shares

 

[MotivationalPoster]

For the technical analysis nerds, we now have a golden cross in PRGN -- very bullish signal:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PRGN&...id=p59871312561

So we have a golden cross, and the stock bounced off the 50 and 200 day MAs at it's low for the day so far. Technicals looking pretty bullish here. I don't mine the low volume -- I think it's just consolidation. If the PRGN bulls are right, that's all this is, and we'll move somewhat sideways a bit before blasting off again.

Fingers crossed gang.

There exist limitless opportunities in every industry. Where there is an open mind, there will always be a frontier

 

[Otis]

By the way, Chesapeake on a major run the past ten tens or so. Up over 21 again now.

CHK 21.02 +0.64 (3.15%)

Perhaps I took those losses a tad too early

 

[siffoin]

By the way, Chesapeake on a major run the past ten tens or so. Up over 21 again now.CHK 21.02 +0.64 (3.15%) Perhaps I took those losses a tad too early

DUDE! Remember. You are the George Costanza of trading. When you are about to buy or sell a stock...apply this exercise."I am George Costanza...Up is Down. Right is Wrong...Buy is Sell...Low is High and High is Low."Trade like you are snagging away someone else's girlfriend. Are you long $10k in AAPL call options yet?

 

[lod01]

OK, huge hole in the stomach after HEB and FREE screwed me yesterday. I am hoping someone can explain this to me based on the SEC filing they just did.

SEC Filing

1. They are offering shares at $1.80. Who can buy those at $1.80?

2. The stock is trading at $1.84 now. I suppose these are the shares that are not included in the $1.80 price.

3. The SEC filing said they expected to be fully diluted by July 28th (next Tuesday). That's insane numbers to sell. But based on the early volume today at $1.81-1.84 (on different shares I think), I tend to believe them. This to me seems like it's creating a SURE THING once dilution passes. This company has stated they will pay down debt. It was already very profitable. Their ship classes are at year highs.

I am extremely tempted here to take a RIDICULOUS large position in this company at $1.82/share or so. If my hunch is correct this will run up to $2.30+ (and possibly higher) by earnings. At the end of the day, this company is doing this MOVE because they can. It's a few week blip before it recovers and is among the best shippers to have in the space. The thing about FREE that one has to love too is that they use their ships in the spot market. Well those numbers are skyrocketing for the smaller vessels. They have been very successful to lock in 45 to 60 day charters at very high prices. If that continues this thing will take off AFTER earnings too.

Considering selling my PRGN to do the same. I watched STP drop from 16's down to 12.5 for an offering of additional shares. Jumped in when it leveled off at the offering level and rode it to 17+. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Suntech-Powe...ml?x=0&.v=4

 

[David Dodds]

added 10,000 HEB at 2.24. This is my last add before looking to move out of this position. Holding 35,000 shares at 2.41 now. Nerves of steel I suppose (or just pure stupidity).

also added 25,000 FREE at 1.83

I am pretty much done here in this thread until either of these things respond. I will get around to updating my last gains (mostly losses) soon, but have too much site work to do the rest of this week. Good luck everyone. I may need it with my last buys here.

 

[saintfool]

Trade like you are snagging away someone else's girlfriend. Are you long $10k in AAPL call options yet?

In a slightly related question... With Apple poised to launch the iphone in China within the next 6 months, I think the stock may be poised to show significant gains. Same goes for Chinese carrier too. However, in the domestic market, I think much of the success of the iphone is tied to the App Store. Part of hat makes the iphone "special" versus other touch/smart phones is the functionality offered through these apps. Does anyone have insight or opinion about the App Store being ready for the Chinese market?

 

[Random]

I with Dodds on FREE. I think 1.80 is the floor on this one.

Bought 4500 FREE @ 1.82

 

[lod01]

Out of PRGN at 4.412. Stupidly wandering over to the FAZ table for a look.

 

[Norman Einstein]

the way ETF's erode over time, i don't know why people don't just short them and ride em into the ground.

 

[Mark Davis]

the way ETF's erode over time, i don't know why people don't just short them and ride em into the ground.

That's what I'm trying to do. Although FAS is putting up a good fight on this round.

 

[David Dodds]

I with Dodds on FREE. I think 1.80 is the floor on this one.Bought 4500 FREE @ 1.82

Despite saying I was done for today, I just added another 25,000 shares at 1.82. They look like they will sell at least 4M shares at these prices today. That is 10X average volume. The second they announce this dilution is over, instant pop in my opinion. It will not shock me to find out an institution bought all of the shares available at the $1.80 today. It's that underpriced. I think this is as sure a thing as they come in the market. If I can get to 2.35 on HEB today, I am going to dump that position at a loss and buy more FREE before the close. I would like to have 100K shares here if I can. Now watch me get 100K shares and they offer a second offering at $1.65...LOL.Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock? They announced the price would be $1.80. At market value this stock was around $2.12 to 2.16 all day before they announced that price. It won't immediately get back to that price, but I see an instant pop to $1.95 and then a run up through earnings. Mark my words here. This stock will see $2.50 before the year is out.

 

[siffoin]

trying to buy some Oct ATM puts on the DIA. They aren't letting me play...even when I go 1 contract at a time. There we go...1 filled. Thank you Sir may I have another!

 

[Alias]

Forgive me because I have sinned.In 500 shares of FAZ at $39.40

the market does seem like it has gone up too much too fast, gllllll peas

 

[BroadwayG]

ATM puts

Sometimes, in the heat of the moment, it's forgivable

 

[djmich]

I with Dodds on FREE. I think 1.80 is the floor on this one.

Bought 4500 FREE @ 1.82

Despite saying I was done for today, I just added another 25,000 shares at 1.82. They look like they will sell at least 4M shares at these prices today. That is 10X average volume. The second they announce this dilution is over, instant pop in my opinion. It will not shock me to find out an institution bought all of the shares available at the $1.80 today. It's that underpriced. I think this is as sure a thing as they come in the market. If I can get to 2.35 on HEB today, I am going to dump that position at a loss and buy more FREE before the close. I would like to have 100K shares here if I can. Now watch me get 100K shares and they offer a second offering at $1.65...LOL.Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock? They announced the price would be $1.80. At market value this stock was around $2.12 to 2.16 all day before they announced that price. It won't immediately get back to that price, but I see an instant pop to $1.95 and then a run up through earnings. Mark my words here. This stock will see $2.50 before the year is out.

The company has stayed the same, but there are more owners?

 

[David Dodds]

Instead of buying FAZ, I would suggest people look at the EEV chart. It's just ridiculous. If you are betting on a market correction, this thing will catapult on one.

RSI(5) = 11.21. I doubt searching every stock and ETF you can find more than a handful of situations better than this. Note anything below 30 is considered a STRONG BUY.

Trading right now at $16.73

MA(50) = 21.36

EMA(12) = 19.23 - All stocks/ETFs eventually mirror this line. This is a wide deviation

EMA(5) = 17.89 - Only something that is in freefall gets away from this line

Now if the market keeps going up and the dollar keeps weakening EEV is a loser. But this pricing right now is bordering on ridicuolus levels.

 

[Norman Einstein]

Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock?

lower earnings per share

 

[David Dodds]

Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock? They announced the price would be $1.80. At market value this stock was around $2.12 to 2.16 all day before they announced that price. It won't immediately get back to that price, but I see an instant pop to $1.95 and then a run up through earnings. Mark my words here. This stock will see $2.50 before the year is out.

The company has stayed the same, but there are more owners?

and people jumping over themselves to add shares at the $1.80 offering to the tune of 10X volume. I am following the herd on this one. This is grossly under-priced even with the dilution.

 

[lod01]

Forgive me because I have sinned.In 500 shares of FAZ at $39.40

the market does seem like it has gone up too much too fast, gllllll peas

Usually when FAZ hits it's all-time low, it bounces off of it....before heading back down to yet another all time low. It's there. Of course, it has to turn first as it has been setting new lows all day.

 

[siffoin]

ATM puts

Sometimes, in the heat of the moment, it's forgivable

If I can collect a few more contracts...I can then begin to work this trade. My open cost was $3.80...so if I could have the cost down to $2.00 or so in a couple of weeks...I feel I'd have good chance of it being profitable by October. That being said it is pretty risky to take a short position with the general strength of the market. At the same time I think it is equally risky to take a new long position here. So I'm taking a small gamble...with the understanding that this will be a managed trade...not a "set it and forget it" trade.

 

[itriple]

Forgive me because I have sinned.In 500 shares of FAZ at $39.40

the market does seem like it has gone up too much too fast, gllllll peas

Usually when FAZ hits it's all-time low, it bounces off of it....before heading back down to yet another all time low. It's there. Of course, it has to turn first as it has been setting new lows all day.

Out at $38.75. I hate FAZ.

 

[george]

Commision Questino: I've never set a Trailing Stop Loss on a stock before. If I set one, am I charged the commision ONLY if it kicks in or am I charged the commission even if I change my mind and cancel it later or sell it a higher price?

 

[BassNBrew]

Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock?

lower earnings per share

30% of the owners instantly having a lower cost basis than you.10 million shares is a boatload and they'll be taking profits anytime this stock attempts to gain traction.

 

[David Dodds]

Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock?

lower earnings per share

You guys do realize this stock ran up to $3.49 after the last earnings right? They turned HUGE profits last quarter. Since that time the spot rates for their ships has increased, they have locked down great charters going forward and now they are diluting. Dilution isn't pure evil. This money will pay down debt and likely add another ship. They made this price $1.80 because they wanted to dilute this FAST (way before earnings). They could have diluted at market price and it would have settled around $1.95 or so. Believe what you want to believe. I think this is the stock play of 2009. 3.02M shares sold already. Maybe 5.0M+ shares sell today...Don't blink too long. The stock offering likely ends tomorrow sometime.

 

[Norman Einstein]

Commision Questino: I've never set a Trailing Stop Loss on a stock before. If I set one, am I charged the commision ONLY if it kicks in or am I charged the commission even if I change my mind and cancel it later or sell it a higher price?

only when triggered

 

[lod01]

Forgive me because I have sinned.In 500 shares of FAZ at $39.40

the market does seem like it has gone up too much too fast, gllllll peas

Usually when FAZ hits it's all-time low, it bounces off of it....before heading back down to yet another all time low. It's there. Of course, it has to turn first as it has been setting new lows all day.

Out at $38.75. I hate FAZ.

I'm not laughing at you, I'm laughing with you because one has to laugh when entering the world of FAZ. New all-time low just set again. Wow, what a POS.

 

[Norman Einstein]

Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock?

lower earnings per share

You guys do realize this stock ran up to $3.49 after the last earnings right? They turned HUGE profits last quarter. Since that time the spot rates for their ships has increased, they have locked down great charters going forward and now they are diluting. Dilution isn't pure evil. This money will pay down debt and likely add another ship. They made this price $1.80 because they wanted to dilute this FAST (way before earnings). They could have diluted at market price and it would have settled around $1.95 or so. Believe what you want to believe. I think this is the stock play of 2009. 3.02M shares sold already. Maybe 5.0M+ shares sell today...Don't blink too long. The stock offering likely ends tomorrow sometime.

didn't say i was doubting you....you asked, i answered

 

[David Dodds]

Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock?

lower earnings per share

30% of the owners instantly having a lower cost basis than you.10 million shares is a boatload and they'll be taking profits anytime this stock attempts to gain traction.

I agree that this will be the case. This will be hard to daytrade this for a bit. But I could see it inching a few cents up each and every day. After earnings, this thing will represent true value. And I am saying true value is greater than $1.82/share here. I think the second they announce they have added a ship (which that SEC filing said they would be doing), we will see this move up a quarter at least. Not getting greedy here. I will sell my soon to be 100K shares at $2.40-$2.50/share.

 

[lod01]

Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock?

lower earnings per share

You guys do realize this stock ran up to $3.49 after the last earnings right? They turned HUGE profits last quarter. Since that time the spot rates for their ships has increased, they have locked down great charters going forward and now they are diluting. Dilution isn't pure evil. This money will pay down debt and likely add another ship. They made this price $1.80 because they wanted to dilute this FAST (way before earnings). They could have diluted at market price and it would have settled around $1.95 or so. Believe what you want to believe. I think this is the stock play of 2009. 3.02M shares sold already. Maybe 5.0M+ shares sell today...Don't blink too long. The stock offering likely ends tomorrow sometime.

didn't say i was doubting you....you asked, i answered

Chart looks just like STP's did during it's offering. Dipped a couple of times below the offering price and quickly jumped back up. Then ran for days. I knew STP was a sure thing because that day was a train wreck and STP was a flat line on 3x + average volume. Why am I not just playing STP is what I should be asking myself. 12-20-16-19-15-19.

 

[siffoin]

Would be very common on a day like this to close at or near the highs. And currently I'm short all the indexes via futs. Not a fun position to hold...right now...not fun at all.

 

[KGB]

In ACLS @.49

 

[Cromedog]

I now am in for the Trifecta of Shipping....added 1000 shares of FREE at 1.82

 

[BassNBrew]

OCNF

2. The Company's Amended and Restated Articles of Incorporation were amended to increase authorized common stock from ninety-five million (95,000,000) common shares to one billion (1,000,000,000) common shares (the "Proposal Two");

ONE BILLION???

 

[BassNBrew]

CENX made a huge run for me today. Now do I sell at the close or hold for the news???

 

[None_More_Black]

Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock?

lower earnings per share

30% of the owners instantly having a lower cost basis than you.10 million shares is a boatload and they'll be taking profits anytime this stock attempts to gain traction.

I agree that this will be the case. This will be hard to daytrade this for a bit. But I could see it inching a few cents up each and every day. After earnings, this thing will represent true value. And I am saying true value is greater than $1.82/share here. I think the second they announce they have added a ship (which that SEC filing said they would be doing), we will see this move up a quarter at least. Not getting greedy here. I will sell my soon to be 100K shares at $2.40-$2.50/share.

Their balance sheet is not the best. They have a big debt payment this year. Most of this offering will go to that. Still could be a value.

 

[SkyRattlers]

CENX made a huge run for me today. Now do I sell at the close or hold for the news???

Take the profit and move it into FREE. Easy money.

 

[BassNBrew]

Well yesterday was not high, as we went up more today. The gold sector really didn't confirm we're not at a high though, as they were mixed to down. Today must have been the high then.

Bold prediction. We're sitting 6 points (in the S&P) from yearly highs. Nasdaq set a new yearly high, Dow is within 300 of yearly highs. And I don't even agree with you. I think we reset highs across the board. If not tomorrow, then early next week. Still lots of potential for good news.

What's the problem? I said back in June in this thread a decline was going to start soon. Last week I returned to the thread to say a decline should start in a week to 10 days. I came back to the thread yesterday and said it was either yesterday or today. And now I'm saying the top was today. Its just the process of narrowing down a critical point. I believe the market is going to get hammered over the course of the next weeks to months. The duration I am unclear on. I expect the bottom of this decline will be roughly the same day Obama gives a major TV speech to say something along the lines of "the economy is strong". I'll let you know when I see him do that.

Beee here. I gotta do a mea culpa on this.Looks like the market is rallying today. So I went back and reworked the model. I'm a computer programmer. Many years ago I developed a stock market model. I'll never make it public. Suffice it to say it describes the market in terms of it having a mass and acceleration, and thus a force is applied. So I wrote some software in C and javascript to do a lot of the number crunching. The top should have been last week, which didn't happen as we are rallying today. So I went over the data with a fine tooth comb and found that some recent prices were incorrect. Its not as big of a deal as it sounds. An occasional error like that has no bearing on the long term trend. Everything I have says the market is about to decline. After correcting the mistakes and recompiling the model, it actually says the top should be this tuesday or wednesday. So the error made the me call a top about 2-3 trading days early.The good news to me is the model wasn't wrong, it was just human error resulting in a slightly early call. If the model is off by 2-3 days, I figure that's incredibly good anyway. We definitely should be rallying into a high this week that stands for several weeks or even months.

May want to break out that fine tooth comb again.

 

[KGB]

In ACLS @.49

In FREE @ 1.83

 

[skycriesmary]

In with the herd, 2000 Free @ 1.82

 

[BassNBrew]

CENX made a huge run for me today. Now do I sell at the close or hold for the news???

Take the profit and move it into FREE. Easy money.

This is what I should do. What I'll likely do is sell half and hold half....and see what's behind the curtain.Thanks to DD again. Bought this in the low 6s a week ago and sold it the next day around $6.50. Bought again this week on the retreat in the low 6s.

 

[NYG Endzone]

Does anyone have any thoughts on PetroChina (PTR)?

PTR passed the 50 & 200 day MA's.

 

[Revo]

CENX crushed estimates, losing 46 cents/share compared to the 82 cents/share projected.

 

[BassNBrew]

CENX crushed estimates, losing 46 cents/share compared to the 82 cents/share projected.

Many more quarters of "crushing" estimates and they'll be out of business.

Sales in the first six months of 2009 were $413.7 million compared with $1,016.3 million in the same period of 2008. Shipments of primary aluminum for the first six months of 2009 were 311,181 tonnes compared with 397,894 tonnes for the comparable 2008 period.

Ouch. I sold half my shares at close. It will be interesting to see what the market does with this news.

 

[optionmaven]

In ACLS @.49

Took a chance with you here. 1500@.4950.

 

[Revo]

CENX up to $7.25 afterhours

 

[Joe Mammy]

CENX crushed estimates, losing 46 cents/share compared to the 82 cents/share projected.

WoW! Glad I hung on to my shares, beat the estimate by .36!!It is flying after hours at Ameritrade - 7.20!

 

[Revo]

CENX crushed estimates, losing 46 cents/share compared to the 82 cents/share projected.

Many more quarters of "crushing" estimates and they'll be out of business.

Sales in the first six months of 2009 were $413.7 million compared with $1,016.3 million in the same period of 2008. Shipments of primary aluminum for the first six months of 2009 were 311,181 tonnes compared with 397,894 tonnes for the comparable 2008 period.

Ouch. I sold half my shares at close. It will be interesting to see what the market does with this news.

LOL, it is amusing. The market loves crappy companies that lose a lot of money!

 

[David Dodds]

Aluminum Spot just hit a 6 month high too:

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum...ical_large.html

Yes this company lost money, but the market is looking forward. And with Aluminum headed up, this thing could actually sail.

 

[Norman Einstein]

CENX crushed estimates, losing 46 cents/share compared to the 82 cents/share projected.

Many more quarters of "crushing" estimates and they'll be out of business.

Sales in the first six months of 2009 were $413.7 million compared with $1,016.3 million in the same period of 2008. Shipments of primary aluminum for the first six months of 2009 were 311,181 tonnes compared with 397,894 tonnes for the comparable 2008 period.

Ouch. I sold half my shares at close. It will be interesting to see what the market does with this news.

last year at this time the stock price was nearly 10x higher