The Z Machine
Footballguy
I doubt it. It'll bounce to 4.25 I think pretty easy. We won't see 4.60 again for a while. Probably a month or 6 weeks. It's been a "climb slowly, fall quickly" type thing IMO.
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Mose
Footballguy
I think Dodds said he is getting out of PRGN by Thursday no matter what.
Mose
Footballguy
I feel like we will hit $4.60 before Tuesday.
Random
Footballguy
Gold sets new record high
For those that think they've missed the boat on gold - India bought 200 tons of gold at $1047/oz. I'd say there's a very good chance thats the floor here.
For those that think they've missed the boat on gold - India bought 200 tons of gold at $1047/oz. I'd say there's a very good chance thats the floor here.
Random
Footballguy
So far, it held.Gold $1093Silver $17.53If that holds... That's... that's... I can't explian how big that is.The USD is gaining ground and Gold is more expensive to buy? That would be a decoupling of enormous magnitude.
Mose
Footballguy
I don't think the call is until the 18th of Nov., so still 2 weeks away.I have no idea though to what it is for.
Alias
Footballguy
People looking to get into Gold, wait until the 3rd week of NovemberSo far, it held.Gold $1093Silver $17.53If that holds... That's... that's... I can't explian how big that is.The USD is gaining ground and Gold is more expensive to buy? That would be a decoupling of enormous magnitude.
Alias
Footballguy
2 minute video:http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold1103/If that holds... That's... that's... I can't explian how big that is.
The USD is gaining ground and Gold is more expensive to buy? That would be a decoupling of enormous magnitude.
(it's probably more like a technical analysis for dummies)
Hoosier Daddy?
The General's Army
Hello everyone. Long time reader, first time poster in this thread. I'm looking for some advice on how to get started. I know very little (or nothing) about investing. I started my career 4 years ago and am contributing to my 401k plan as well as putting 10% of my salary towards ESPP where we get to purchase shares at a 15% discount. That ESPP account is accessible through E-Trade, which I haven't looked at in over 2 years.
So that's where I stand. Some stock in our company and that's it. And I don't think our stock is doing much of anything. I keep feeling like, "man, I should diversify or something or at least sell my ERTS and put it in something thats moving." Problem is, I wouldn't know where to start. Some of my coworkers know a little bit more about the stock market than I do and one person recommended this book by William O'Neil to get started. And from what I can tell, after reading that book, the next step would be a subscription to Investors Business Daily and I guess they send out their IBD Top 100 list every week or something. Not sure if that means that those are the companies you should buy stock in, or if they're just saying that they are good companies in general or what.
But like I said, I've been following this thread for a couple of months and am very impressed by the depth of knowledge some of you guys have. So it makes me think, "man, if I dedicate some serious time to this stuff, maybe I could make some real money."
So, thoughts? Recommendations? Buy the book?
So that's where I stand. Some stock in our company and that's it. And I don't think our stock is doing much of anything. I keep feeling like, "man, I should diversify or something or at least sell my ERTS and put it in something thats moving." Problem is, I wouldn't know where to start. Some of my coworkers know a little bit more about the stock market than I do and one person recommended this book by William O'Neil to get started. And from what I can tell, after reading that book, the next step would be a subscription to Investors Business Daily and I guess they send out their IBD Top 100 list every week or something. Not sure if that means that those are the companies you should buy stock in, or if they're just saying that they are good companies in general or what.
But like I said, I've been following this thread for a couple of months and am very impressed by the depth of knowledge some of you guys have. So it makes me think, "man, if I dedicate some serious time to this stuff, maybe I could make some real money."
So, thoughts? Recommendations? Buy the book?
siffoin
Footballguy
See if your local library has the book and check it out. Thoughts:1) The best way to make $ is to save $. Be frugal.
2) No cares more about your $ than you. Don't trust financial advisors. Stock brokers do just that... make you broker.
3) Your #1 goal should be how to recognize a bull market AND a bear market in the early stages. Knowing how to do that and applying it is critical to long term success. This is what the focus of your studies should be. Technical analysis- or - fundamental analysis? In your search you will find things that make sense to you. When you overlay indicators onto a chart you will find some suit your eye, and others make no sense. Delve into the areas that "suit your eye". There is no holy grail trading system...forget looking for one...and certainly never pay $ to anyone that says they have one. No investor is right 100% of the time either. Losses are part of the game. Wise $ management is critical.
4) IBD is great, but there are going to be lots of stocks that show up. Which ones will you pick? For a new investor the menu of choices in the stock market is confusing...and you wind up chasing stocks that have already made the majority of the move...just like being in a herd of sheep. YOU want to be the investor that is ahead of the crowd. Often it is not a popular position to take. So instead...
5) Focus on a few ETFs that can diversify your portfolio. As an example (and what I'm doing) follow the SPY (SP500), USO (oil), GLD (Gold) and FXE (currency/euro). With 25% of your funds invested in each you have a diversified portfolio that you can be reasonably sure will move, and because there are inverse ETFs in each, you have the ability to make $ in both bull markets AND bear markets. Being on the correct side of the trend in each of these...one could expect gains of between 3%-6% per month in the overall portfolio.
6) The successful investor tends to be the one willing to do the things that the unsuccessful investor isn't. You can learn a lot from watching how failing investors fail.
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Mose
Footballguy
Alot of us in this thread hop in and out of stocks ALOT. If you are looking at investing, this thread isn't it. This is more about trading stocks on a short-term basis.
If you are wanting to do that, you will need to find a brokerage place with pretty cheap trading fees for starters. Scottrade is recommended here a bunch.
Good luck in what ever you choose to do!
If you are wanting to do that, you will need to find a brokerage place with pretty cheap trading fees for starters. Scottrade is recommended here a bunch.
Good luck in what ever you choose to do!
Hoosier Daddy?
The General's Army
I guess I'm interested in both - saving for the future and trying to make some extra cash now. So maybe I'd do something like take half of my ESPP and put into some kind of long term investment, and take the other half for day trading or whatever. Too risky? More long term investments? I guess I read things like this thread and think, "man, if I put enough time in it, maybe I can make a quick $500 here and there too."
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
I'm still holding, Mose ...
Mose
Footballguy
Good luck to us then!
David Dodds
Administrator
Baltic Supramax 1,855 (+1.20%)
Baltic Handysize 880 (+0.46%)
Baltic Dry 3,335 (+1.21%)
Baltic Capesize 5,481 (+0.75%)
Baltic Panamax 3,480 (+2.41%)
BDI is up again. With the market higher too, this is the perfect storm for the Shippers to finish the day very strong here. I am still holding all my PRGN shares for now.
Baltic Handysize 880 (+0.46%)
Baltic Dry 3,335 (+1.21%)
Baltic Capesize 5,481 (+0.75%)
Baltic Panamax 3,480 (+2.41%)
BDI is up again. With the market higher too, this is the perfect storm for the Shippers to finish the day very strong here. I am still holding all my PRGN shares for now.
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Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I think I'm holding my current batch of shares for the longer haul -- unless we get a 20-30+% runup around earnings that seems unlikely to hold. Sure seems like the bump in the BDI and last two days of NASDAQ gains would have pushed this one higher. I don't know how much we'll be able to squeeze out of this over the next week.I'm getting a nagging feeling that I'll be adding to my holding (now 3500 at 4.12 average) on a dip before selling over the next couple of weeks.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I am holding also
bigfishboy
Footballguy
I am still in at 4.69 from pre-dilution. No sense in getting hasty now.
David Dodds
Administrator
I have 15,000 PRGN at 4.04. I have set these levels (Good until cancelled) to sell should they trigger:
sell 5,000 at 4.25, sell 5,000 at 4.30, sell 5,000 at 4.35
sell 5,000 at 4.25, sell 5,000 at 4.30, sell 5,000 at 4.35
I will be hanging tough. I wont sell below $4.50. I am hoping for $4.75+.Lets hope for a Q1 like reaction to their earnings. However, If it doesnt rocket up we still have the 5% dividend to hold for.
siffoin
Footballguy
Not sure if anyone saw this, but UUP was halted earlier due to the issuing of new shares...
DB Commodity Services Files with the SEC to Register 100 Million Additional
Shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Business Wire
NEW YORK -- November 05, 2009
DB Commodity Services LLC today announced it has filed a registration
statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to register
100,000,000 additional shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
(NYSE Arca: UUP) in order to meet investor demand. Creations of new shares in
the fund are temporarily suspended pending clearance of the registration
statement by the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the
National Futures Association and declaration of the effectiveness of the
registration statement.
Thoughts?
I had heard there had been record call vol from a few days ago, but wasn't really paying attention.
DB Commodity Services Files with the SEC to Register 100 Million Additional
Shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
Business Wire
NEW YORK -- November 05, 2009
DB Commodity Services LLC today announced it has filed a registration
statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to register
100,000,000 additional shares of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
(NYSE Arca: UUP) in order to meet investor demand. Creations of new shares in
the fund are temporarily suspended pending clearance of the registration
statement by the SEC, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the
National Futures Association and declaration of the effectiveness of the
registration statement.
Thoughts?
I had heard there had been record call vol from a few days ago, but wasn't really paying attention.
David Dodds
Administrator
I mostly just want to bank a win. PRGN could spike at or near earnings, but their history is definitely to drop / slide after earnings. I agree that PRGN possibly could get to $4.50+, but it seems like if that was going to happen we would see movement today. But we are not seeing that. We are seeing very low volume (which is inconsistent with a big move coming in my opinion).
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Siffoin,
If you were going to take a short position in a stock, what chart and/or indicators would you look at and/or what else would you base your decision to short on?
If you were going to take a short position in a stock, what chart and/or indicators would you look at and/or what else would you base your decision to short on?
Alias
Footballguy
well, glad that didn't hit, looking to get in at 12.52 before the end of day
siffoin
Footballguy
What specific stock...and what is the time frame for holding the position? And I'll look at it.In general...the same chart and indicators you use to buy and stock should be used to sell/short a stock but in reverse.I'd use puts. If you are expecting a ST move use the expiration month that is 2-6 weeks out. For example...use Nov if shorting now and expecting the move to occur within the next 1-10 days.In using options for ST moves I created a spreadsheet in which you input the bid/ask of the 5 closest strikes and it will calculate which strike you should purchase for the greatest risk v. reward. I'll post that spreadsheet on my website soon.If you believe the stock IS going to decline but you just aren't sure when...the best thing to do is some kind of put hedge...like a time spread...where you write the near month option and purchase a further out month option...same strike. That strategy buys you some time and helps alleviate premium burn. So you think XYZ is a good short..and it is trading at $50. You'd write the Nov 50 Put for $1.00 and Purchase the March 50 Put for $3.00. Depending on price action after Nov expiration you could then choose to write a Dec Put or Hold the Long March put unhedged (naked) or close out the position...ditto for Jan and Feb. Ideally XYZ would stay at $50 through Feb expiration and you would have 3 cycles to write the Put for $1.00...making your cost basis less than $0.00...then XYZ declares bankruptcy and that long Put is worth $50. Don't count on that happening however.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
up 17% today, this sucker moves this much fairly often in a day.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
I'll have to read this a couple times to make sense of it. I was wondering if BID, AWI, or JAS were good short opportunities.
Well, I got out of 400 shares of NDN +.85. Nice to book a winner. COIN is back to a 4-digit loser. Love how it can go down while the rest of the market is up 2 percent. And ACLS stays the same. Given those are the two stocks I really want out of ... 
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siffoin
Footballguy
What happened to BID after hours? We should be able to work up a nice short position in that one. The others don't look so good.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Ok, so in your example, I assume that if you sell a Nov put and the stock drops, the premium gained plus the March put purchase is greater than the loss on writing the Nov put? I'm kind of a newb with options....The reason I'm looking at shorting is that I often look at the biggest price gainers and losers on the day, and it seems like stocks on the gainer list one day are on the loser list the next day. So instead of trying to randomly guess if a big winner today will give 5% - 10% back tomorrow, I'm trying to find out shorting strategies/indicators/etc.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
You need to look at the option's delta. (google to learn more.) An option's delta tells you how much a change in the underlying will affect the price of the option. An at the money option usually has a delta around .50. If a stock goes up 1.00 the option will increase/decrease in value by 50 cents. Another way of looking at option delta is the percent chance that a option will finish in the money, which is why an at the money option is around .50. (out of the money options will have smaller deltas, in the money will have bigger) In the Siffoin example, the deltas are probably very close, so if the stock dropped by two dollars, both options will move by about the same amount and you will break even. (assuming you bought and sold the same amount). You can look up an option's delta on your brokerage software. (or google it)
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TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Awesome, thanks. I would think the delta on the option farther out would actually change a little less since there is more time to expiration? I've studied this stuff so I have some knowledge of it, just no application of it, which is the hard part. Where can I find the delta? I logged into Scottrade and can't find it.On a somewhat related note, do you ever look for or find any arbitrage opportunities?
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TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it almost seems as if writing Jan puts on ACLS is a good trade at this point.
Axcelis Technologies, Inc.(NasdaqGS: ACLS)
Real-Time: 1.05 0.18 (20.69%) 9:49am EThelp
PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Jan 15, 2010
Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
2.50 ULSMZ.X 2.15 0.00 N/A N/A 13 13
Thoughts?
Axcelis Technologies, Inc.(NasdaqGS: ACLS)
Real-Time: 1.05 0.18 (20.69%) 9:49am EThelp
PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Jan 15, 2010
Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
2.50 ULSMZ.X 2.15 0.00 N/A N/A 13 13
Thoughts?
siffoin
Footballguy
The spread on the bid ask is HUGE.Bid $.45Ask: $1.90Open Interest = 13.My guess is you won't get filled at a decent price.In general with options play ones that have a lot of open interest. Play ones that have a small spread between the bid/ask.In regards to your questions yesterday.I'm not going to say your hypothesis won't work. The questions your going to have to answer are something like this:Hypothesis: Stocks that make a large move will drop a measurable % the following day.Fact: 1) Some stocks will drop, some will flat, some will continue their directional move.The question you must answer is "can you determine which stocks will drop". How can you identify those? And when do they telegraph that they will drop (before the close...after the open on the following day?) You need that so you can weed out with some certainty the inevitable losers.And since this is a quick one day type of trade...you just need to go naked puts. The spreadsheet I have will help determine which strike offers the best risk v. reward...but you can eyeball it too using delta as discussed. Remember a small % in your favor is often the difference between long term success and blowing out your account.My personal opinion is that you'd be much better off finding relatively few stocks that trade with high vol, where there is a small spread ($.01), and lots of open interest...and getting very good at trading those. Every stock has a rhythm and flow...scanning for the grand slam play will result in many many strike-outs, mainly because you are unaccustomed to flow of the underlying. This is a game where pros feast on hopes of and dreams of those hoping for quick riches. It is at the same time the easiest and hardest job in the world. Very few make it...and no one unscathed. Hit singles consistently...try to get a win % over 60%...and you'll be fine.
playin4beer
Footballguy
ACLS up 39% today... 
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Thanks for the info. Regarding the naked puts, it looks like a lot of stocks don't even have changes in their option prices on a daily basis, so one day option trades would only work with REALLY high volume stocks like Citi or AIG. Is this fairly accurate?
siffoin
Footballguy
Options prices should change as the underlying price changes.Real simple...picks stocks in the DOW (there's 30) or Nasdaq 100 (there's 100). Pick 5 or 10...no more than 20. There is plenty to trade. Just let go of that urge to find the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow by chasing. Trade what you know and know what you trade.
