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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

Year to Date Profit = $53,897

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: +1,698

DXO + 1476

UCO + 222

Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

2,000 EXM @ 6.94

3,000 PRGN @ 3.55

6,000 FEED @ 3.89

10,000 FREE @ 1.31

Crazy day as I moved a ton of stocks. I somewhat hate leaving oil, but will look for an opportunity to re-enter shortly. I like that the BDI continues to rise and think the Dry Shippers are still headed up.

 
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Any thoughts on how long it takes FAZ to go to 0??? I guess they'll have to start up FAZII.

 
Some of my other long term LONG positions that I kept after the market crash have been on a tear lately:

AAPL - up almost 50% since mid march

CMG - up 70% since mid march

Almost back to even on both of these after being down more than 50%.

 
BassNBrew said:
Any thoughts on how long it takes FAZ to go to 0??? I guess they'll have to start up FAZII.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the nature of futures contracts? From what I understand, ETFs have a half-life that erodes every so often and must be renewed. FAS/FAZ are such futures and I do not believe they were created for long holding...essentially it is a short position that you can buy into and sell out of on a daily basis.I believe that DXO is based upon July 2009 oil futures, and once July hits, DXO will "renew" based upon July 2010. I could be totally wrong here, as I don't understand ETFs, so I refuse to trade in them.Bottom line for me and my understanding is this: ETFs decay and lose value. The high of 100 will never be reached again, only to find a new high of 70, never to be reached again, only to find a new high of 65 never to be reached again, and so on.This is just my simple understanding, but the only people that make real money on ETFs are those that day trade in them or those that sponsor them.That's just my 2 cents.
 
analog_hiss said:
BassNBrew said:
Any thoughts on how long it takes FAZ to go to 0??? I guess they'll have to start up FAZII.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the nature of futures contracts? From what I understand, ETFs have a half-life that erodes every so often and must be renewed. FAS/FAZ are such futures and I do not believe they were created for long holding...essentially it is a short position that you can buy into and sell out of on a daily basis.I believe that DXO is based upon July 2009 oil futures, and once July hits, DXO will "renew" based upon July 2010. I could be totally wrong here, as I don't understand ETFs, so I refuse to trade in them.Bottom line for me and my understanding is this: ETFs decay and lose value. The high of 100 will never be reached again, only to find a new high of 70, never to be reached again, only to find a new high of 65 never to be reached again, and so on.This is just my simple understanding, but the only people that make real money on ETFs are those that day trade in them or those that sponsor them.That's just my 2 cents.
Click to expand...
This is essentially correct. ETFs will generally decay in value due to administrative costs, rollover costs, and especially Contango for commodity ETFs. That's all well and good. They aren't companies and they don't have revenue. They are useful for going short/long on day-to-day or short term (less than a few months).Furthermore, there are ETNs which are slightly different than ETFs. OIL and DXO are ETNs, whereas USO is an ETF. There is a difference... the ETN is a debt backed security, whereas the ETF actually owns the equities.
 
The Z Machine said:
analog_hiss said:
BassNBrew said:
Any thoughts on how long it takes FAZ to go to 0??? I guess they'll have to start up FAZII.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the nature of futures contracts? From what I understand, ETFs have a half-life that erodes every so often and must be renewed. FAS/FAZ are such futures and I do not believe they were created for long holding...essentially it is a short position that you can buy into and sell out of on a daily basis.I believe that DXO is based upon July 2009 oil futures, and once July hits, DXO will "renew" based upon July 2010. I could be totally wrong here, as I don't understand ETFs, so I refuse to trade in them.Bottom line for me and my understanding is this: ETFs decay and lose value. The high of 100 will never be reached again, only to find a new high of 70, never to be reached again, only to find a new high of 65 never to be reached again, and so on.This is just my simple understanding, but the only people that make real money on ETFs are those that day trade in them or those that sponsor them.That's just my 2 cents.
Click to expand...
This is essentially correct. ETFs will generally decay in value due to administrative costs, rollover costs, and especially Contango for commodity ETFs. That's all well and good. They aren't companies and they don't have revenue. They are useful for going short/long on day-to-day or short term (less than a few months).Furthermore, there are ETNs which are slightly different than ETFs. OIL and DXO are ETNs, whereas USO is an ETF. There is a difference... the ETN is a debt backed security, whereas the ETF actually owns the equities.
Click to expand...
Thanks for that.Give me the old time bricks and mortar, something I can see, feel and touch; hypothetically. Maybe sometime in the future I'll have enough confidence, but not now.
 
I will also add that DXO doesn't bleed much because of how they structured it. It resets monthly and not daily like most other leveraged ETFs/ETNs. For example let's say $50 July oil = DXO 2.50 at the end of the month. This creates a factor of 20 to 1 roughly. So for every 20 cents that July oil moves, DXO will move up a penny based on the last month's reset. So to the outside this tracks daily moves, but doesn't officially reset until the end of the month. Over the last few months, it looks like DXO has only bled off a few pennies in decay. It truely is unique in that way.

This does create a weird situation though when oil moves a lot in one month (let's say from 35 to 50). DXO is moving based on the pthe previous month which isn't really accurately reflected at $50 oil. This 2X leveraged asset will go to zero on any month where oil drops in half within one month. This seems unlikely to happen at oil around $50, but it's theoretically possible.

DXO will roll over soon (likely in June) to some unknown contract or contract(s). People have specualted that it will be June 2010, but that has not yet been determined according to the prospectus.

 
David Dodds said:
I guess time will tell if this was smart, but I completely changed my portfolio (from all oil) to Dry Shippers and FEED and no oil all in 1 day. Very active day for me. Hopefully this positions me well for Friday or Monday.
Click to expand...
I think that's very smart. I believe oil is going to get hammered until July/August. Not to say there won't be some money to be made on the dips and blips, but oil players - be careful picking up dimes in front of the bulldozer.
 
analog_hiss said:
BassNBrew said:
Any thoughts on how long it takes FAZ to go to 0??? I guess they'll have to start up FAZII.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the nature of futures contracts? From what I understand, ETFs have a half-life that erodes every so often and must be renewed. FAS/FAZ are such futures and I do not believe they were created for long holding...essentially it is a short position that you can buy into and sell out of on a daily basis.I believe that DXO is based upon July 2009 oil futures, and once July hits, DXO will "renew" based upon July 2010. I could be totally wrong here, as I don't understand ETFs, so I refuse to trade in them.Bottom line for me and my understanding is this: ETFs decay and lose value. The high of 100 will never be reached again, only to find a new high of 70, never to be reached again, only to find a new high of 65 never to be reached again, and so on.This is just my simple understanding, but the only people that make real money on ETFs are those that day trade in them or those that sponsor them.That's just my 2 cents.
Click to expand...
You are referring to leveraged ETF's, not all ETF's, right?
 
Random said:
analog_hiss said:
BassNBrew said:
Any thoughts on how long it takes FAZ to go to 0??? I guess they'll have to start up FAZII.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the nature of futures contracts? From what I understand, ETFs have a half-life that erodes every so often and must be renewed. FAS/FAZ are such futures and I do not believe they were created for long holding...essentially it is a short position that you can buy into and sell out of on a daily basis.I believe that DXO is based upon July 2009 oil futures, and once July hits, DXO will "renew" based upon July 2010. I could be totally wrong here, as I don't understand ETFs, so I refuse to trade in them.Bottom line for me and my understanding is this: ETFs decay and lose value. The high of 100 will never be reached again, only to find a new high of 70, never to be reached again, only to find a new high of 65 never to be reached again, and so on.This is just my simple understanding, but the only people that make real money on ETFs are those that day trade in them or those that sponsor them.That's just my 2 cents.
Click to expand...
You are referring to leveraged ETF's, not all ETF's, right?
Click to expand...
Actually, I haven't the slightest idea how they work, which is why I refuse to invest.ETF's or leveraged ETF's all seem like a bad bet to me...hell, I'm just trying to learn the rope of investing on a day to day basis. I started with $7500, invested nearly $2500, and have about $1700 in profits. I could go all in, but I believe that would be a fool's errand. The stock market is risky enough, and for someone that is just learning I believe throwing my money into leveraged funds is even riskier.I hate losing money, and as I posted around 3/17 I am going low and slow. I want to learn and be profitable. I don't want to learn hard lessons from losing big, and bidding on leverages funds seem like a losing bet to me, but that's just me.If you know better, go right ahead...I sincerely hope you make a killing. It's just not for me. Heck, I'm just trying to get the hang of basic investing.I wish you luck...I want to see everyone in this excellent thread make a gob of money. In other threads, I am a complete posterior end and have been given timeouts...I don't want anymore timeouts cause I think I can contribute a little, and hopefully help someone make money...or at least make some money from other information.Give me some time and I might start exercising some options, taking a short position, or investing in leveraged funds, but for me, right now, it just ain't my cup of tea.I wish you luck in your investments.
 
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Just thought I would throw out a few of the securities that I am following. These are all small/mid cap stocks that I have found researching for "value." I cannot say they will payoff, just a few I have examined and chose to follow.

CAEI

IO

WRES

HOOK

PERY

RTEC

CSE

EFIJ

 
analog_hiss said:
Random said:
analog_hiss said:
BassNBrew said:
Any thoughts on how long it takes FAZ to go to 0??? I guess they'll have to start up FAZII.
Click to expand...
Isn't that the nature of futures contracts? From what I understand, ETFs have a half-life that erodes every so often and must be renewed. FAS/FAZ are such futures and I do not believe they were created for long holding...essentially it is a short position that you can buy into and sell out of on a daily basis.I believe that DXO is based upon July 2009 oil futures, and once July hits, DXO will "renew" based upon July 2010. I could be totally wrong here, as I don't understand ETFs, so I refuse to trade in them.Bottom line for me and my understanding is this: ETFs decay and lose value. The high of 100 will never be reached again, only to find a new high of 70, never to be reached again, only to find a new high of 65 never to be reached again, and so on.This is just my simple understanding, but the only people that make real money on ETFs are those that day trade in them or those that sponsor them.That's just my 2 cents.
Click to expand...
You are referring to leveraged ETF's, not all ETF's, right?
Click to expand...
Actually, I haven't the slightest idea how they work, which is why I refuse to invest.ETF's or leveraged ETF's all seem like a bad bet to me...hell, I'm just trying to learn the rope of investing on a day to day basis. I started with $7500, invested nearly $2500, and have about $1700 in profits. I could go all in, but I believe that would be a fool's errand. The stock market is risky enough, and for someone that is just learning I believe throwing my money into leveraged funds is even riskier.I hate losing money, and as I posted around 3/17 I am going low and slow. I want to learn and be profitable. I don't want to learn hard lessons from losing big, and bidding on leverages funds seem like a losing bet to me, but that's just me.If you know better, go right ahead...I sincerely hope you make a killing. It's just not for me. Heck, I'm just trying to get the hang of basic investing.I wish you luck...I want to see everyone in this excellent thread make a gob of money. In other threads, I am a complete posterior end and have been given timeouts...I don't want anymore timeouts cause I think I can contribute a little, and hopefully help someone make money...or at least make some money from other information.Give me some time and I might start exercising some options, taking a short position, or investing in leveraged funds, but for me, right now, it just ain't my cup of tea.I wish you luck in your investments.
Click to expand...
There is nothing wrong with etfs. Most etfs are just a basket of equities that track the underlying perfectly minus expenses. If an etf has to use future's contracts or dervatives for leverage there are certain aspects of this approach that make these etfs more suitable for short term trading if the market is choppy. Etfs are a great way to have an inexpensive diversified portfolio. Do your research. Most of the time, it is not that complicated.
 
Not shocked I sold oil to early at all, but am OK with my decision as some of what I bought is doing well.

Already an active day here. Sold 5,000 FREE @ 1.37, Bought 2,000 PRGN @ 3.49, Added 3,000 FEED @ 3.75

 
David Dodds said:
Not shocked I sold oil to early at all, but am OK with my decision as some of what I bought is doing well.

Already an active day here. Sold 5,000 FREE @ 1.37, Bought 2,000 PRGN @ 3.49, Added 3,000 FEED @ 3.75
Click to expand...
Do you mind if I say you could be part of the problem? :wall: Not sure why this just popped into my head.

You are Al in the pro shop.

 
Sold 3000 DXO @ $2.80 for a $333 profit less $16 in commissions.

Still still sitting on 2000 @ $2.50, 2000 @ $2.91, 1000 @3.01

 
I keep barely missing trades for a penny per share. In fact it seems as soon as I put in a sell order, that stock tanks. I have done OK today, but really bummed I did not get rid of any PRGN when it hit 3.55. I also got too greedy on FEED and it's also retreated a bit.

Add this to all the troubles I have had with a DVD promotion we thought we were doing with the FFOC at the NFL Draft and I have a huge splitting headache.

 
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BBT BB & T CORP $1,615.82

DXO POWERSHARES DB CRUDEOIL DOUBLE LONG ETN $1,821.41

EXM EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS LTD $153.73

FAS $33.14

FAZ -$2,897.84

PRGN PARAGON SHIPPING INC 04/17/2009 $367.90

SCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRASHORTDJ AIG CRUDE -$828.81

UCO PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG CRUDE $786.49

Total $1052 to the good working with about $30K. Have made slightly over $100K in transactions with $278 in fees.

Thought you guys might find this interesting. This is my profit/loss over the last two months or so on positions that I've closed. If I'd stay away from shorting oil and the financials I'd be $4800 to the good...ouch. That said, oil and BBT have been very good to me.

Currently Hold

5000 DXO in the green @2.73

200 FAZ in the red @ 12.75

1000 PRGN in the red @ 3.60

1000 FEED in the green @ 2.40

 
BassNBrew said:
FavreCo said:
Motion sickness pills needed at the FAS table.
Click to expand...
Just sold my 100 shares that I've been stuck with. In at $8.09, out at $8.40 for a whooping profit of $15. Looks like a sixer and a steak for me tonite.
Click to expand...
It is looking like an end of day run for FAS. I will be moving out of my last shares (7.34) if this breaches 9.00 as I suspect it might.I am beginning to believe that I will only trade FAS at the beginning or the end of the day. Too much happens to it during the day for reasons that I can't predict. The end of the day moves are much easier to figure.EDIT TO ADD: See, wasn't that predictable?
 
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Sold 2500 FREE at 1.35

Today sucked. My timing was all wrong including dumping oil too early (yesterday). I made a profit and love my positions, but I still think I could have done a lot better. I am shocked that the Nasdaq was up 2-3% all day and the Dry Shippers were mostly flat.

 
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David Dodds said:
Sold 2500 FREE at 1.35Today sucked. My timing was all wrong including dumping oil too early (yesterday). I made a profit and love my positions, but I still think I could have done a lot better. I am shocked that the Nasdaq was up 2-3% all day and the Dry Shippers were mostly flat.
Click to expand...
TBS and DSX had nice days.
 
Missed my sell limit for DSX @ 15.95 by 4 cents.

I think it'll get there soon enough, but I wanted to have a bit more capital going into the WE.

 
Year to Date Profit = $55,095

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: +1,198

FREE + 400 - 24

FEED +840 - 18

Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

2,000 EXM @ 6.94 - Currently at 6.93

13,000 PRGN @ 3.47 - Currently at 3.45

5,000 FEED @ 3.84 - Currently at 3.91

2,500 FREE @ 1.31 - Currently at 1.34

 
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Das Boot said:
David Dodds said:
Was not my strategy going into today, but I just bought another 5,000 shares of PRGN at 3.42
Click to expand...
What is your strategy with PRGN?.... are you looking for .20 or so out of it?Congrats on your YTD totals... definitely impressive. :goodposting:
Click to expand...
I just don't get this stock at all. They are one of the best managed shippers. They have already booked 98%, 55% and 38% of its available fleet days for FY 2009, FY 2010 and FY 2011 respectively. So the BDI will not even affect them this year. And they are very profitable. They proactively cut their dividend to accumulate money. They are also adding 10 million shares (dilution effect, but DRYS/EXM did way worse things), but that will allow them to complete orders of extra ships that are delivered soon. Their Fleet's average age is around 8 years. They also have permission to buy back their own stock so I think there is virtually no downside of this stock. So when the whole sector is up and they are down, I am going to buy these guys. I think what is happening right now is they are leaking a lot of these 10 million new shares out to the marketplace which is holding this stock back. With average volume around 450K a day, it might take a few months to get the 10 million shares out there. But make no mistake about it. This stock is going to pop within the next few months. And it might be one of the strongest Dry Shipping plays from June on. I did not intend to hold such a large position so early on it, but now that I have it I am likely going to hold unless I can indeed get my 0.20-0.25/share which I think it should be at already. In fact I think fair value of this stock is above $4.00, but I doubt I have the patience to wait for that.I think things will start clearing up with these guys (against their peers) as we get closer to quarter 2 earnings. I would not bet against PRGN who I would rate as one of the very best managed in this sector.
 
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