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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

and now out of the rest of SBLK at 1.72. I feel so naked. Nothing to sell at the moment. It seems like a good time to be in cash as I could see a major selloff after 3 big days in the market.

Edited to add: I misread my screen and was not fully out of SBLK. I lowered the price on these last 3,000 shares and averaged $1.71 and not 1.72.

 
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Another nice day in the market here. I moved off everything I own as I suspect we could see a violent downturn tomorrow. I love the Dry Shipping Sector, but will look to re enter it on Tuesday after some earnings reports get released.

Today's profit: $1,269

SBLK 6,000 x -3.5 cents = $-210 less $24 in commissions

4,000 EXM x .10 = $400 less $18 commissions

500 DSX x .19 = $95 - $12 commissions

5,000 DXO = 1,050 - 12 commissions

Year to date profit = $24,378

Holding no positions at present

 
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LHUCKS said:
Looks like we all got out of FAS too early...
Click to expand...
:thumbup: :bag: Since it's inception, FAS had not gained more than 3 days in a row. I was proud of myself getting out at 4.15 late yesterday expecting a correction today. Oops.I will expect a correction again tomorrow and hope that I can get back into it.I believe this will be up big by the end of the year. ANd, while I have grand ambitions to play the volitility, I hope it doesn't cause me to lose out on many more of these huge run ups.
 
I planned on waiting to add some Dry Shippers, but loving the big downturn the sector is showing right now with the BDI down (and NASDAQ down a little). Added 1,000 EXM at $4.00. Going to use this as the basis to cost average down should it go lower. I absolutely love this company long-term. Short-term, we might go lower on the earnings report due after the market closes on Monday. If this stock goes below $3, I suspect I will have nearly $100K betting on this company.

 
David Dodds said:
I planned on waiting to add some Dry Shippers, but loving the big downturn the sector is showing right now with the BDI down (and NASDAQ down a little). Added 1,000 EXM at $4.00. Going to use this as the basis to cost average down should it go lower. I absolutely love this company long-term. Short-term, we might go lower on the earnings report due after the market closes on Monday. If this stock goes below $3, I suspect I will have nearly $100K betting on this company.
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They recently suspended their dividend, loaded with debt obligations, and are are strapped for cash. Why all the love?
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TWC

?

TIME WARNER CABLE INC.(NYSE: TWC)

Real-Time: 25.51 17.18 (206.24%) 2:00PM EThelp

Last Trade: 25.59

Trade Time: 1:45pm ET

Change: 17.26 (207.20%)

Prev Close: 8.33

Open: 24.97

Bid: N/A

Ask: N/A

1y Target Est: 23.13

Day's Range: 24.64 - 26.62

52wk Range: 6.73 - 31.56

Volume: 1,835,133

Avg Vol (3m): 2,156,540

Market Cap: 25.00B

P/E (ttm): N/A

EPS (ttm): -7.52

Div & Yield:

 
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Penguin said:
bd3521 said:
FatUncleJerryBuss said:
TWC up 17.00+ on the day, 200+ %
Click to expand...
Up only 2% on the day (the split is screwing with the charts).http://research.scottrade.com/public/stock...o.y=8&go=Go
Click to expand...
It's up 2% off today's open, but 200% from yesterday's close.
Click to expand...
Nobody gained 200% today. Starting today it traded inclusive of the one-for-three stock reverse stock split the companies proposed months ago. 8.33/24.97 => ~1:3 split
 
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Turd Ferguson said:
I just read this whole thread and it was a great read. It takes nads to put it all out there online and I give you kudos. Your original idea was CRAZY and I am glad you recovered you're sanity. Trade what you are comfortable with and "feel" you have some knowledge of.I'll be very interested to follow it especially regarding oil ETF's as I have not felt comfortable to jump into these as you are and have not had a good grasp of the factors and trends that drive the prices. I have had some luck in financial ETF's (FAS, FAZ) but they can be evil....and there are still people that don't understand the scary decay. I have a buy into FAZ at 34.95 tomorrow but I don't think it will get there. The delay of approval of financial stimulus should stall the momentum of Friday but I can hope. Not to hijack but I am documenting my below VERY non conservative stock choices so I can see how I actually do with my other longterm gambles which are:- Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) - This stock dropped like a lead turd over the last few months but there is a good possibility that they will avoid bankruptcy. You have to do you due diligence regarding a lot of takeover rumors now but I believe it you can buy at .10 per share it could easily hit .50 within a year or two....or .0001. - Arthrocare (ARTC) - They have a pretty good business (I work in the healthcare industry) but have had an accounting scandal that has required them to restate financials a few years back. They were dropped from the NASDAQ but should rejoin soon after restating the financials in early March. It is in the mid 5's now and if it hits the high to mid 4's I am buying. Too much was made of the scandal (I believe an overreaction which is accented in this crazy market) and this could be at 12 to 15 by June after the financials are restated.- Nova Chemicals (NCX) - They are a large plastics company in Canada that has dropped a ton awaiting financing issues. I don't think Canada will let them fail and recent rumors of financing drove the stock up 50%. I am buying at 1.35 and will dump in the mid 2's if it gets there. - General Growth Properties (GGP) - This is a total crapshoot. They are a huge mall owner and operator. They really could go bankrupt but I believe they will not as their lenders would get killed in this market attempting to liquidate their assets (malls). Also, they are huge and it could set a scary precedent in the retail sector. There is a boatload of opinions each way but my feeling is they make it. They delayed their Q4 financials 2 weeks which I think will scare off some people. I see it dropping from the .81 close on Friday to the high .50's / high .60's in the week. I am buying there but I don't know if I have the balls to stay in it if it goes above a dollar.Don't put alot of $ in any of these but the rewards for all of them could be interesting. I am interested to see if by the end of the year if any of these potential dogs payoff. Good luck to all.
Click to expand...
Quick Update as of 3/13/09:- Bought SIRI at .08 on 2/13 and sold at .16 on 2/17 (next business day). A cool 100% but could have been more as it went to the mid 20's. I did not buy in for much but never had a 100% gain in 2 days.- Bought ARTC in the mid 4's on 2/18 and still holding on. It is in the mid 4's now but went as low as the high 2's. We'll see but I am selling at 10+ after they restate #'s in a few weeks months. - Bought NCX at 1.31 on 2/17. And the acquisition announcement was made (at 6 per share) on 2/23 and I sold at 5.40 on that day. This was the homerun. A 300%+ gain in a few days. I did not buy in for much but never had that happen before.- Bought GGP at .46 on 2/23 and sold at .55 on 2/25. Got scared and sold quickly. This one scares me more now. It has gone to the .70 and into the .30's since then. I am not getting back in this one for now.- Bought FAZ in hi 30's in February and got out in the 40's a few days later. The fact it went over 100 makes me ill but I did have a gain.- Bought some of the dry shipping stocks based on this thread (NM, EXM) and made a little bit and intend to buy in again if they drop a bit. and HOLD this timeBeen on a good streak....I have to remember that when/if things run bad.The only things I am currently in are:- Bought FAZ today at 40.51. It scares me as the momentum has been so positive for financials it scares me but I think it the next few few days it will break 50 (which I will sell) ...there has to be a pull back. I hate holding over a few days as for the evil decay.- Bought CENX at 1.23 on 3/10. It is a big aluminum company with cash issues but it also a possible takeover candidate. It could be like NCX above.....or to $0.01. I just can't see it going bankrupt but who knows...Good luck to all....
 
opted to do a little day trading here and added 10,000 DXO at 2.42. Seems like it is going up/down within this range right now so this feels safe.

 
bd3521 said:
David Dodds said:
I planned on waiting to add some Dry Shippers, but loving the big downturn the sector is showing right now with the BDI down (and NASDAQ down a little). Added 1,000 EXM at $4.00. Going to use this as the basis to cost average down should it go lower. I absolutely love this company long-term. Short-term, we might go lower on the earnings report due after the market closes on Monday. If this stock goes below $3, I suspect I will have nearly $100K betting on this company.
Click to expand...
They recently suspended their dividend, loaded with debt obligations, and are are strapped for cash. Why all the love?
Click to expand...
Because they own a large percentage of the ships. And with the sector hurting to start the year, new ship contracts were all cancelled. BDI got as high as 11000 last year due to demand and no ships. So when the economy returns even slightly, this company is going to get their share. Yes the news has been bad, but the current market cap of 185 million is downright silly. My calculation shows this stock to be worth around $5.50 now and I expect it will rise steady to the BDI peak season around May/June.
 
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bd3521 said:
Penguin said:
bd3521 said:
FatUncleJerryBuss said:
TWC up 17.00+ on the day, 200+ %
Click to expand...
Up only 2% on the day (the split is screwing with the charts).http://research.scottrade.com/public/stock...o.y=8&go=Go
Click to expand...
It's up 2% off today's open, but 200% from yesterday's close.
Click to expand...
Nobody gained 200% today. Starting today it traded inclusive of the one-for-three stock reverse stock split the companies proposed months ago. 8.33/24.97 => ~1:3 split
Click to expand...
I thought he was joking/fishing from the beginning, I may be wrong though.
 
OPEC to keep present ouput

By George Jahn, Associated Press Writer

OPEC says it will stick to present production levels

VIENNA (AP) -- OPEC tried on Sunday to nudge oil prices up by urging its members to stop overproducing, but the cartel decided not to cut current output levels which could have driven prices sharply higher.

Explaining the decision, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla el-Badri spoke of his organization's concern over "ugly" global economic times that overrode the desire to achieve a quick fix by setting a lower overall output for the 12-nation producer's club.

"We see people who are out of work, we see people in tents in the most rich countries," he told reporters. While OPEC's goal remains higher prices for its product, "the time is not right" for more radical measures, he said.

The decision was sure to be welcomed by the U.S. and other major oil consuming countries, because setting lower output limits would could have jolted the already anemic world economy through a sudden price increase.

It also reflected realization with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that any action more drastic than calling for quota compliance at a time of global economic crisis could ultimately backfire in real terms, by further depressing demand and driving down prices.

The OPEC decision came as the world took a breather from the usual relentless slew of bad news since the financial crisis became most acute last October. The Dow Jones industrial average is up around 10 percent this week, and most Asian and European markets also rose. However, governments and investors are wary of calling it the start of a turnaround.

"They have recognized the fact that they ought to be cutting," said trader and analyst Stephen Schork of Villanova, Pennsylvania. "But they have taken into consideration that this could potentially set prices on fire, which would have ######ed the nascent economic recovery that we have seen."

The move, he said, "sends a strong message to producer and consumer alike that we are all in this together -- they need us to buy and we need to afford to be able to buy."

Still, more drastic measures could be enacted within a few months.

The ministers agreed to meet in special session on May 28 to review prices and supply. That gathering could decide to reduce the oil producing club's output levels, if the oil ministers think that crude prices remain too low and the global economy has improved.

Cheap oil has been a rare bright spot in the otherwise gloomy world economic picture, selling in the mid- to upper-$30s this week -- less than a third of its summer record levels. But while benefiting consumers, those prices have forced many OPEC members to revise spending and warn that they cannot invest in further oil production.

Some OPEC nations had urged direct oil output cuts by setting lower levels, as the 12-nation organization usually does when it wants to raise prices.

But OPEC's de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, and others had instead favored calling on overproducing members to comply with their quotas as a way of reducing world oil supply without causing prices to rise rapidly.

Cuts agreed on since September were meant to take a daily 4.2 million barrels off the market. But the 11 members that are under production quotas are still overshooting their joint daily target level of just under 25 million barrels by more than 800,000 barrels a day, or 21 percent above formal set limits.

While 100 percent compliance with quotas is unlikely, even an additional 10 percent would take more than 400,000 barrels a day off markets, slicing into oversupply while reducing the price shock that an outright cut in existing quotas would have caused.

"We have urged our member countries to comply," said el-Badri. "We have an overhang of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels. If we have more compliance, we can reduce it further."

OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, Angola's oil minister, acknowledged the group had little authority to enforce quota compliance on cheating members. But he said the 12-nation producers' club would "continue working with countries that are not complying, so that they do."

London-based analyst John Hall said Angola was among those, producing a daily 130,000 barrels above its quota. He welcomed Sunday's decision as "supporting rescue packages already announced by various governments" seeking the way out of the economic crisis.

Earlier Sunday, Russian Deputy Premier Igor Sechin announced that his country is reducing crude sales in an apparent boost for OPEC, which has repeatedly urged Russia for support as the world's second largest producer after the Saudis.

At its peak in early 2008, Russia was producing 9.5 million barrels of crude a day. But those levels have been shrinking and the announced cuts could be just a way of dressing up Moscow's inability to keep up present output levels because of lagging investment that is expected to result in an output decline of around 2 percent this year.
Click to expand...
Thanks a lot. Oh yeah, nice Renglish Abdalla. :goodposting:
 
St. Louis Bob said:
OPEC to keep present ouput

By George Jahn, Associated Press Writer

OPEC says it will stick to present production levels

VIENNA (AP) -- OPEC tried on Sunday to nudge oil prices up by urging its members to stop overproducing, but the cartel decided not to cut current output levels which could have driven prices sharply higher.

Explaining the decision, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla el-Badri spoke of his organization's concern over "ugly" global economic times that overrode the desire to achieve a quick fix by setting a lower overall output for the 12-nation producer's club.

"We see people who are out of work, we see people in tents in the most rich countries," he told reporters. While OPEC's goal remains higher prices for its product, "the time is not right" for more radical measures, he said.

The decision was sure to be welcomed by the U.S. and other major oil consuming countries, because setting lower output limits would could have jolted the already anemic world economy through a sudden price increase.

It also reflected realization with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that any action more drastic than calling for quota compliance at a time of global economic crisis could ultimately backfire in real terms, by further depressing demand and driving down prices.

The OPEC decision came as the world took a breather from the usual relentless slew of bad news since the financial crisis became most acute last October. The Dow Jones industrial average is up around 10 percent this week, and most Asian and European markets also rose. However, governments and investors are wary of calling it the start of a turnaround.

"They have recognized the fact that they ought to be cutting," said trader and analyst Stephen Schork of Villanova, Pennsylvania. "But they have taken into consideration that this could potentially set prices on fire, which would have ######ed the nascent economic recovery that we have seen."

The move, he said, "sends a strong message to producer and consumer alike that we are all in this together -- they need us to buy and we need to afford to be able to buy."

Still, more drastic measures could be enacted within a few months.

The ministers agreed to meet in special session on May 28 to review prices and supply. That gathering could decide to reduce the oil producing club's output levels, if the oil ministers think that crude prices remain too low and the global economy has improved.

Cheap oil has been a rare bright spot in the otherwise gloomy world economic picture, selling in the mid- to upper-$30s this week -- less than a third of its summer record levels. But while benefiting consumers, those prices have forced many OPEC members to revise spending and warn that they cannot invest in further oil production.

Some OPEC nations had urged direct oil output cuts by setting lower levels, as the 12-nation organization usually does when it wants to raise prices.

But OPEC's de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, and others had instead favored calling on overproducing members to comply with their quotas as a way of reducing world oil supply without causing prices to rise rapidly.

Cuts agreed on since September were meant to take a daily 4.2 million barrels off the market. But the 11 members that are under production quotas are still overshooting their joint daily target level of just under 25 million barrels by more than 800,000 barrels a day, or 21 percent above formal set limits.

While 100 percent compliance with quotas is unlikely, even an additional 10 percent would take more than 400,000 barrels a day off markets, slicing into oversupply while reducing the price shock that an outright cut in existing quotas would have caused.

"We have urged our member countries to comply," said el-Badri. "We have an overhang of 800,000 to 900,000 barrels. If we have more compliance, we can reduce it further."

OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, Angola's oil minister, acknowledged the group had little authority to enforce quota compliance on cheating members. But he said the 12-nation producers' club would "continue working with countries that are not complying, so that they do."

London-based analyst John Hall said Angola was among those, producing a daily 130,000 barrels above its quota. He welcomed Sunday's decision as "supporting rescue packages already announced by various governments" seeking the way out of the economic crisis.

Earlier Sunday, Russian Deputy Premier Igor Sechin announced that his country is reducing crude sales in an apparent boost for OPEC, which has repeatedly urged Russia for support as the world's second largest producer after the Saudis.

At its peak in early 2008, Russia was producing 9.5 million barrels of crude a day. But those levels have been shrinking and the announced cuts could be just a way of dressing up Moscow's inability to keep up present output levels because of lagging investment that is expected to result in an output decline of around 2 percent this year.
Click to expand...
Thanks a lot. Oh yeah, nice Renglish Abdalla. :goodposting:
Click to expand...
I also thought they would have agreed to increase the cut. I suspect though that if Oil were to drop below $40/barrel again, these guys would have an emergency meeting
 
David Dodds said:
I also thought they would have agreed to increase the cut. I suspect though that if Oil were to drop below $40/barrel again, these guys would have an emergency meeting
Click to expand...
You have to appreciate the reasoning though. A run up in oil prices would be economically devastating (for everyone). Whether the oil producers like it or not, cheap oil is a short term painful but long term smart policy. Demand in general is still weak and falling all over the world. A spike in fuel costs just makes it worse especially for shippers. I suspect you'll see oil below $40 very quickly, and I still believe a 2 handle is likely before things turn.
 
With the BDI down another 3.02% today, I sold my 1,000 shares of EXM at 4.23. I will look to add back later at a lower price. Profit = $230 - $12 commissions

 
David Dodds said:
and I also love DXO this morning. DXO tracks to the July oil contract which is currently trading at $46.50. Seeing how the front month April contract passed $48 earlier this week, this seems very safe plus it won't roll over for a bit. Seems like real easy money. I am looking to add 10,000 shares sometime today.The Contango has severely tightened here making DXO the real bargain of all the oil plays:Apr - 42.87May - 44.23June - 45.34July - 46.50Aug - 47.14
Click to expand...
David, does this still apply?
 
I know I said long term hold on BBT, but I could resist.

In at $14.08, out at $18.142. $812.40 profit less $16 commissions.

Will look to buy back in on a drop if it ever drops again.

 
BassNBrew said:
David Dodds said:
and I also love DXO this morning. DXO tracks to the July oil contract which is currently trading at $46.50. Seeing how the front month April contract passed $48 earlier this week, this seems very safe plus it won't roll over for a bit. Seems like real easy money. I am looking to add 10,000 shares sometime today.

The Contango has severely tightened here making DXO the real bargain of all the oil plays:

Apr - 42.87

May - 44.23

June - 45.34

July - 46.50

Aug - 47.14
Click to expand...
David, does this still apply?
Click to expand...
Here's a link for futures contracts - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=CLH09.NYM
 
Sold my UCO at $18.17. In at $17.65 for a profit of about $200.

Thanks to all for the solid tips in here.

 
Oil is up despite the no-cut from OPEC. Options expiration day can't get here soon enough!

I bought 400 more UCO on friday and then sold some ITM 7.5's calls. If they hit at the end of this week I make about 5% return on my money in the span of a week.

 
Some interesting stats on 3X funds.

It looks like the best way to play these is by shorting. If you are a bull it looks like you are much better off shorting the bear 3X than owning the bull 3X. Otherwise these look to be horrible betting tools - they look like keno odds in a casino.

 
David Dodds said:
From playing these things for awhile it seems they generally are flat or down on most days then skyrocket when these three conditions all happen:1. NASDAQ is up by 2% or more2. BDI is up by 2% or more3. Financials are having a solid day (FAS 3X leverage up about 6%)Obviously the stocks will fluctuate a little if there are mixed signals, but what you are looking for is to buy on days when all three of the indicators are down and sell when all three of the indicators are up. On days when the three indicators align, the best moves are usually made right near the closing bell too.
Click to expand...
Nasdaq down 2%BDI down 3%Financials offShippers were generally off 3-4%, mostly between 2 and 4 pm EST.I haven't played the shippers, but DD's observations bear watching.
 
Sand said:
Some interesting stats on 3X funds.

It looks like the best way to play these is by shorting. If you are a bull it looks like you are much better off shorting the bear 3X than owning the bull 3X. Otherwise these look to be horrible betting tools - they look like keno odds in a casino.
Click to expand...
March 2nd I bought FAS at 3.97. Today, 14 days later, I watched it closely all day hoping to take $2 a share. It got close three times and started falling and I ended up with 1.50 a share X 800 = $1200. But this same trade was down that much ++ at one point during these 14 days. Not for the feint of heart. So I got some FAZ @ 38.15 up 10% by the close with a trailing stop at 5%. I feel comfortable playing keno with these right now. Keeping it under 5K and hoping to guess right with the prudent use of stops (which I didn't use on FAS last time because it was a mixed up limit order turned market order or I would have lost $200). Letting the profits run and nipping the losses in the bud makes sense to me the way these 3Xs move. For me it's either something a little exciting like this or just being on the sidelines. The government is flat promising C and BAC will not fail. That gives me an odd sense of security playing with these like some in this thread had playing with oil funds for similar reasons. Maybe I'm nuts.
 
I think most of us still in UCO are just hoping to get out soon. I'm hoping that the price of oil can keep from cratering in the next 5 days after options expiration so I can unwind my position and put that money to use somewhere else.

Too much manipulation and chicanery with these ETF's. Seems really shady to me.

 
damn power knocked me offline, but was happy to see oil rebound. I will be looking to sell that position for a profit heading into Tuesday before the first inventory report is announced after the market closes. I definitely would have sold my position for a profit had I been online.

I am planning on doing a giant Dry Shipping Analysis late tonight (before morning). Things have slid around a bit (BDI has dropped for three straight days, NASDAQ off today, earnings reports are due after the market closes tomorrow). If these companies go much lower, I will likely take a very large position in a few of them. But before I do, I want to study it all one last time to make sure what I am committing to.

One interesting piece about the Dry Shippers is this:

From the start of the year we have had 109 Bulkers sent to the breakers, and more than 4.4million Bulk Carrier DWT carrying capacity withdrawn from the market. Average age of Bulkers withdrawn is 30.5 years.

Total 2008 figures for Bulkers were 76 units of 4million DWT!!!!!! In less than 3 months we have surpassed the annual figures of 2008.

[[[[[[[ My Take ]]]]]]]

Add this bit of news with the cancellation of new ship orders and the survivors in this space are going to be poised for huge success once the world economy rebounds. Upon this rebound, this short supply of ships could easily push the BDI (and the corresponding shipping rates) through the roof. I remain convinced this sector will be the hottest play over the next 12 - 18 months.

 
Cromedog said:
BassNBrew said:
David Dodds said:
and I also love DXO this morning. DXO tracks to the July oil contract which is currently trading at $46.50. Seeing how the front month April contract passed $48 earlier this week, this seems very safe plus it won't roll over for a bit. Seems like real easy money. I am looking to add 10,000 shares sometime today.

The Contango has severely tightened here making DXO the real bargain of all the oil plays:

Apr - 42.87

May - 44.23

June - 45.34

July - 46.50

Aug - 47.14
Click to expand...
David, does this still apply?
Click to expand...
Here's a link for futures contracts - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?s=CLH09.NYM
Click to expand...
CLJ09.NYMCrude Oil Apr 09 47.14CLK09.NYM

Crude Oil May 09 47.85CLM09.NYM

Crude Oil Jun 09 49.11CLN09.NYM

Crude Oil Jul 09 49.60CLQ09.NYM

Crude Oil Aug 09 50.68Yes I would much rather have July oil at $49.60 than April oil at $47.14. So many things could push July oil way higher whereas days are running out for the April contract. Personally I am starting to think front end oil is over-priced and July oil is slightly under-priced. I will probably get out of this sector unless I see a big downturn based on some information.

 
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Bummed that I did not wait on my huge position with this company now:

Afterhours - Star Bulk Carriers (Nasdaq:SBLK) 19% HIGHER; reports Q4 EPS of $0.41, 5 cents better than the analyst estimate of $0.36. Revenues for the quarter were $72.8 million, versus the consensus of $59.55 million.

 
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