####! I guess we should have know this was coming given that SBLK was up today relative to it's peers. So will this touch off a rally across the sector? SBLK is up 30% in after hours trading. EXM is only up 4%
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Nice.... I knew there was a reason that I kept 30% of my portfolio in SBLK... Although I did buy it at something like $2.09 or something, so I need that 30% bounce.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
I'm jumping in...but slowly. A while ago we rolled over some retirement funds from the wife's former employers and mine into a Fidelity account. After rolling over a couple of CDs, we threw $7500 into an account for trading...right now I plan to start with $3500 and invest in small cap, penny stocks...did I say slowly?
I am a conservative investor, and enjoy the safety of a nice CD and have laddered them in previous years. Bottom line, if I can double my $3500 (or keep at least $2000) by the end of the year, I'll be a happy man. All the final paperwork was delivered yesterday, so it might be a day or two before I make the jump.
I am a conservative investor, and enjoy the safety of a nice CD and have laddered them in previous years. Bottom line, if I can double my $3500 (or keep at least $2000) by the end of the year, I'll be a happy man. All the final paperwork was delivered yesterday, so it might be a day or two before I make the jump.
Penguin
Footballguy
I sold on Thursday hoping to buy back at a bargain tomorrow
David Dodds
Administrator
Quick conclusion for those that don't care about my math. (Note: If you want to see my math, I have attached my Excel file at the end of this post). From Feb 10th until now the BDI and NASDAQ have been trading within a range of levels. Normalizing data against these days to a formula I have developed, I believe the following valuations for this sector exist:
DSX (Value = 12.90, Selling at 12.35, 4.4%)
PRGN (Value - 4.07, Selling at 3.71, 9.8%)
FREE (Value = 0.88, Selling at 0.72, 22.3%)
NM (Value = 2.64, Selling at 2.27, 16.3%)
ESEA (Value = 4.32, Selling at 4.39, -1.5%)
EXM (Value = 4.72, Selling at 3.94, 19.9%)
SBLK (Value = 1.74, Selling at 1.82, -4.6%) - This also skyrocketed in the after-market due to a great earnings report, so my calculations are very skewed because most analysts were shocked at the earnings.
DRYS (Value = 4.04, Selling at 3.80, +6.4%)
GNK (Value = 12.98, Selling at 12.19, +6.5%)
EGLE (Value = 4.55, Selling at 4.59, -0.9%)
Understand that this accounts for the current NASDAQ and current BDI. Last year the BDI peaked around May/June. Ifthe BDI/NASDAQ improve going forward, then this sector will also move significantly with those jumps.
But even at these levels, stocks like FREE, EXM and NM appear majorly oversold at present. I plan on actively trading in this sector with a long view of selling in May/June.
dryshippers.xls
DSX (Value = 12.90, Selling at 12.35, 4.4%)
PRGN (Value - 4.07, Selling at 3.71, 9.8%)
FREE (Value = 0.88, Selling at 0.72, 22.3%)
NM (Value = 2.64, Selling at 2.27, 16.3%)
ESEA (Value = 4.32, Selling at 4.39, -1.5%)
EXM (Value = 4.72, Selling at 3.94, 19.9%)
SBLK (Value = 1.74, Selling at 1.82, -4.6%) - This also skyrocketed in the after-market due to a great earnings report, so my calculations are very skewed because most analysts were shocked at the earnings.
DRYS (Value = 4.04, Selling at 3.80, +6.4%)
GNK (Value = 12.98, Selling at 12.19, +6.5%)
EGLE (Value = 4.55, Selling at 4.59, -0.9%)
Understand that this accounts for the current NASDAQ and current BDI. Last year the BDI peaked around May/June. Ifthe BDI/NASDAQ improve going forward, then this sector will also move significantly with those jumps.
But even at these levels, stocks like FREE, EXM and NM appear majorly oversold at present. I plan on actively trading in this sector with a long view of selling in May/June.
dryshippers.xls
David Dodds
Administrator
Me too. I loved this company and had 13,000 shares not very long ago. But I am as shocked as anyone that they crushed their earnings report during the time when the BDI was ROCK BOTTOM. This company is likely still undervalued (even though my analysis of trading levels does not indicate that it's a good bargain now). But their ability to turn a healthy profit at the bleakest point in the shipping cycle is indeed quite impressive. I plan on getting some shares on a down day.I sold on Thursday hoping to buy back at a bargain tomorrow
David Dodds
Administrator
I want to add that my analysis is using the stock price during this down time. This sector has been ravaged badly and trading at ridiculous P/E ratios. That will likely rebound with a better BDI/NASDAQ too.
My guess is this sector will improve at 2-3X the rate of the NASDAQ/BDI Index I have created once the world economy rebounds. That could be a year plus away though.
My guess is this sector will improve at 2-3X the rate of the NASDAQ/BDI Index I have created once the world economy rebounds. That could be a year plus away though.
Thanks DD. Kind of feel like I was waiting for the OJ report in trading places.
Lord of Football
Footballguy
What time does EXM report earnings?
David Dodds
Administrator
I don't know, but I thought it was suppose to be after the market closed. I will be watching this closely all day here. If the BDI opens higher, I am going to add EXM shares and will just cost average down if the earnings report is a disaster. Also looking to get into NM and FREE today at some point.
Cromedog
Footballguy
What time is the BDI report released?
David Dodds
Administrator
All over the map, but usually up around 7am - 7:30am PThttp://shipping.capitallink.com/baltic_exc...tock_chart.html
David Dodds
Administrator
Some good news on Housing Starts
New figures show that US housing starts unexpectedly rebounded in February, surging 22.2% from January. The Commerce Department numbers provided a rare dose of good news for the recession-hit economy and the battered US housing market.
New figures show that US housing starts unexpectedly rebounded in February, surging 22.2% from January. The Commerce Department numbers provided a rare dose of good news for the recession-hit economy and the battered US housing market.
I don't know where I read it, but I had Tuesday PM in my head which confused me when you were talking about SBLK last nite. Could have very well been someone else I was researching though.
David Dodds
Administrator
and the Baltic Indexes are down big. The shippers should head lower folks.
Baltic Supramax 1,673 (-1.24%)
Baltic Handysize 800 (+0.13%)
Baltic Dry 1,974 (-4.08%)
Baltic Capesize 2,251 (-4.82%)
Baltic Panamax 1,899 (-7.14%)
Baltic Supramax 1,673 (-1.24%)
Baltic Handysize 800 (+0.13%)
Baltic Dry 1,974 (-4.08%)
Baltic Capesize 2,251 (-4.82%)
Baltic Panamax 1,899 (-7.14%)
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David Dodds
Administrator
Out of 5,000 DXO at $2.56. I can't believe I made money on this trade as I bought at $2.42 just for the possibility that OPEC would cut (I figured the move upward would have been greater than any move downwards). Just about ready to bet against oil with SCO. The forward contracts seem high to me. DXO (July contract) seems about right.
Profit = .14 x 5,000 = $700 - $12 commission
Profit = .14 x 5,000 = $700 - $12 commission
David Dodds
Administrator
Year to date profit = $25,284
Holding no positions at the moment. Will look to buy in the Dry Shipping sector near the market close with BDI off so much
Holding no positions at the moment. Will look to buy in the Dry Shipping sector near the market close with BDI off so much
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My limit sell on DXO is at $2.60. I really do think that it will get to $3.00 as some point but these leveraged ETF's aren't made to held for that long. Oh well. Still made a little profit on it (assuming it hits $2.60 soon).
David Dodds
Administrator
added 500 SCO at $33.75
David Dodds
Administrator
2.61 now.
Yeah, not long after I posted that I got an e-mail saying my trade was executed for $2.60.
I won't be upset if it goes higher.....it happens.Now, what to buy.......?
David Dodds
Administrator
Call it a hunch, but with most of the Dry Shipers down and EXM up on a day with the BDI down 4%, I suspect they are also going to have a better than expected earnings report.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
First three purchases:
500 FEED @ $1.89
400 GPRE @ $1.64
1000 SIRI @ $0.25
I am watching FEED and GPRE daily and hopefully realize some quick gains. I wasn't that serious about SIRI, but while researching last week I took a break and paid for my XM subscription for the coming year. My son asked what their stock was doing we looked and he was "Wow, I could buy shares of that." So we are going 50/50 on that and will hold SIRI for a while.
That's it for me today...going low and slow.
ETA - I was working off the orders I placed, actual purchase price edited. Today I am in for a total of $1851.
500 FEED @ $1.89
400 GPRE @ $1.64
1000 SIRI @ $0.25
I am watching FEED and GPRE daily and hopefully realize some quick gains. I wasn't that serious about SIRI, but while researching last week I took a break and paid for my XM subscription for the coming year. My son asked what their stock was doing we looked and he was "Wow, I could buy shares of that." So we are going 50/50 on that and will hold SIRI for a while.
That's it for me today...going low and slow.
ETA - I was working off the orders I placed, actual purchase price edited. Today I am in for a total of $1851.
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David Dodds
Administrator
FEED was my play in the stock contest. I bought in with fictional dollars at 1.67. I agree that this company should be HUGE. It's at 2.20 now
David Dodds
Administrator
I added a limit buy of SCO at 33.00 and also set a sell of my 500 SCO at 34.55. Short-term oil seems over-priced to me. I suspect I will be able to turn this today or tomorrow based on the inventory reports.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Anyone writing covered calls on EXM?
Sand
Footballguy
Well, a 22% increase from 0 is still 0. Or, in this case, perhaps 1.22?Seriously, you have to look at how incredibly dismal January was to see that February really wasn't all that much better.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
yeah, too much inventory still...housing starts wont see a meaningful increase for at least six months IMHO.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
The 1.2% is single family housing bouncing along the bottom of an all-time low January. The 22% is new apartment/condo construction. Think rentals. It's likely developer investment finding use of a dormant construction industry to move distressed and ousted owners into rentals. We have a year plus of single family inventory on the discount rack right now. I'm not sure this new construction is a good thing, but it is keeping some people working. I want to see it broken down regionally before reading anything more into it.
Sand
Footballguy
Hey, I was making a point. A juicy, sensationalized point. Please, let's keep facts out of the discussion, ok? :(
David Dodds
Administrator
and got the next 500 SCO at 33.00.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I'm close to following you on this.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
FAZ zipped right down to my stop loss this morning before I could put my coffee down and reach for my mouse. That's the point of yours I need to pay attention to.
David Dodds
Administrator
The last two months, SCO (reverse oil) was at it's highest on these days: Feb 18th and Jan 20th. This is due to the fact that people have to take ownership of oil here very shortly. And despite everyone's optimism for higher oil, we still have massive storage problems at Cushing, etc. So taking these deliveries will likely again be problematic. I expect this to pop at least $2 a share and possible more depending on the inventory report. And even if the inventory report is outstanding, I think I can get out of this virtually unscathed.Additionally the contract roll that killed all of us in UCO will happen around April 6-10 so I think the biggest downside is to just hold until then and get paid off. This seems like a no-brainer play and only something like a conflict or war would derail it. I may add another 500 shares if it gets back to 33.00
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
What happens, let's say if you don't know what you are doing and you buy 100 shares of FAZ yesterday @36.00 and sell at 41.00. Then you realizes it is a ETF and all your funds are hold. Let's just say.FAZ zipped right down to my stop loss this morning before I could put my coffee down and reach for my mouse. That's the point of yours I need to pay attention to.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
After nearly touching 2.40, SBLK is back down to 2.20 now. People got really excited that they made a profit, then they realized that no one is actually shipping anything these days.
I'm gonna hold for a while longer. I think that SBLK goes to $3.00 before it goes back under $1.75.
I'm gonna hold for a while longer. I think that SBLK goes to $3.00 before it goes back under $1.75.
What means this? Are you saying that your funds are on hold because the trade needs a couple of days to settle? ETF's trade just like shares of stocks so that's not an issue.I would say that you just made a $500 profit.What happens, let's say if you don't know what you are doing and you buy 100 shares of FAZ yesterday @36.00 and sell at 41.00. Then you realizes it is a ETF and all your funds are hold. Let's just say.FAZ zipped right down to my stop loss this morning before I could put my coffee down and reach for my mouse. That's the point of yours I need to pay attention to.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
I thought it had something to do with margins and the NAV. If there is no backlash except being on hold, this stock has huge swings up and down in a week. It seem a good place to gamble.Edit: My other trades I have immediate availability to the funds.What means this? Are you saying that your funds are on hold because the trade needs a couple of days to settle? ETF's trade just like shares of stocks so that's not an issue.I would say that you just made a $500 profit.What happens, let's say if you don't know what you are doing and you buy 100 shares of FAZ yesterday @36.00 and sell at 41.00. Then you realizes it is a ETF and all your funds are hold. Let's just say.FAZ zipped right down to my stop loss this morning before I could put my coffee down and reach for my mouse. That's the point of yours I need to pay attention to.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I put in another buy for 500 shares of SCO at $32.75 if it gets that low to execute. I pulled the sell off as I want to see tonight's inventory report first. If this triggers, I will add another 500 at $32.00
Disappointed in the Dry Shippers who are higher today despite a big drop in the BDI. Going to wait for a better spot with them.
Disappointed in the Dry Shippers who are higher today despite a big drop in the BDI. Going to wait for a better spot with them.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Gotta think it's the quarterly report from SBLK that's carrying over to them. It's likely that a few other shippers will exceed expectations as well, so that's probably propping up the whole sector.David Dodds said:
David Dodds
Administrator
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...738486920090317
Main points on why I expect Oil heading South VERY SOON
1. A Reuters survey ahead of U.S. weekly inventory reports showed
analysts forecasts for a 500,000-barrel increase in domestic crude stocks
last week.
2. April crude oil options expire today. The April crude oil
contract expires on Friday.
3. Analysts surveyed by Platts expect data will show a 2-million-barrel increase in U.S. commercial crude stockpiles when the Energy Information Administration releases its closely watched weekly petroleum data at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday.
and not in the article: Last report over 2 million barrels were offloaded from a Supertanker. But with prices holding at $48 most of this period and the contango essentially flat, I would expect most all of these Supertankers have now offloaded (I believe nearly 15 Supertankers were loaded with between 1 and 2 million barrels each).
Main points on why I expect Oil heading South VERY SOON
1. A Reuters survey ahead of U.S. weekly inventory reports showed
analysts forecasts for a 500,000-barrel increase in domestic crude stocks
last week.
2. April crude oil options expire today. The April crude oil
contract expires on Friday.
3. Analysts surveyed by Platts expect data will show a 2-million-barrel increase in U.S. commercial crude stockpiles when the Energy Information Administration releases its closely watched weekly petroleum data at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday.
and not in the article: Last report over 2 million barrels were offloaded from a Supertanker. But with prices holding at $48 most of this period and the contango essentially flat, I would expect most all of these Supertankers have now offloaded (I believe nearly 15 Supertankers were loaded with between 1 and 2 million barrels each).
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David Dodds
Administrator
I added another 500 SCO at 32.82 (market order). I am going to run some errands and I may add even another 500 share position before close today.
David Dodds
Administrator
We all got screwed on the contract roll and USO buying contracts ahead of the known roll (manipulating the oil price because of known interest from UCO purchases). This could very well happen again starting around April 6th when UCO will be forced to roll their contracts over the next 5 days as well.Honestly never thought I'd get close to even again on this UCO...Sold 4K UCO @8.62 (-.03)... still holding 4K
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I'm selling off my UCO holdings because it seems everyone is getting on the SCO bandwagon. I've held these for a few weeks now, and will be realizing a $20 loss, which aint much at all.
Keerock
Footballguy
Maybe so, but I NEVER should have gotten that upside down. Forgot all my lessons learned from 10 years ago on setting stops and just let it ride. Very stupid on my part, and with God as my witness... it will never happen again.We all got screwed on the contract roll and USO buying contracts ahead of the known roll (manipulating the oil price because of known interest from UCO purchases). This could very well happen again starting around April 6th when UCO will be forced to roll their contracts over the next 5 days as well.Honestly never thought I'd get close to even again on this UCO...Sold 4K UCO @8.62 (-.03)... still holding 4K
David Dodds
Administrator
OK I am out for a bit here. I will likely add to my oil position before the market close here. Nothing like getting $60K+ into something in 1 day...lol
