Lord of Football
Footballguy
In on 500 SCO at 33.22
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I'm still not sure why I can't place a sell order for a stock, have it execute and immediately have that much money in my account in terms of "buying power". It seems like Zecco is always waiting a day to post the transactions into my account, and as such, when I realize a sale, I still can't use the money for another day.
Is there a way around this?
Is there a way around this?
Cromedog
Footballguy
Like a rocket...
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Because I kept bringing down my limit on the sell for UCO and OIL. Right when it executed... liftoff!
David Dodds
Administrator
Added 500 SCO at $32.25. I am simply amazed here. I think some of this action though could be the options guys today covering their positions. And we all know that the OPEC cuts will likely be further enforced, but they did halt additional cuts until the May meeting. And at these levels, we also know the Supertankers likely got offloaded. People only have until Friday with the April contract. Feels like major manipulation going on here as the data seems to suggest that oil should go lower. As I much as I love the price of SCO, I am content with my 2,000 shares at an average cost of $32.96. My target sell price is $34.25, but depending on how the news unfolds I may up that target. I am going to set a stop loss at $29.50/share.
This is what the oil contracts look like right now
CLJ09.NYM Crude Oil Apr 09 49.20
CLK09.NYM Crude Oil May 09 49.96
CLM09.NYM Crude Oil Jun 09 51.06
CLN09.NYM Crude Oil Jul 09 51.98
CLQ09.NYM Crude Oil Aug 09 52.80
This is what the oil contracts look like right now
CLJ09.NYM Crude Oil Apr 09 49.20
CLK09.NYM Crude Oil May 09 49.96
CLM09.NYM Crude Oil Jun 09 51.06
CLN09.NYM Crude Oil Jul 09 51.98
CLQ09.NYM Crude Oil Aug 09 52.80
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Following along with 200 at $31.76
Mark Davis
Footballguy
I'm on these same calls with you. I hope they end up in the money as well. I'm much preferring DBO to UCO at this stage and would like to exit my position here. If they execute then I'll actually have a slight gain on UCO.... which at one time seemed a very unlikely scenario.
Wow this stuff is all over the map.... Real-Time: 32.45
UCO broke $9 today. Were you guys able to get out or is their a specific date it has to be above $9?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Definitely looks like there some manipulation going on. Stupid rollover.
I'm right around the break even point in the mid 8's. One reason I bought some SCO to try and offset if there is any decline later this week. I'm content to hold SCO for a little while as well as Dodds makes some compelling arguments for a retreat in oil prices in the short term.
David Dodds
Administrator
I think what is amazing is SCO hit $39.40 yesterday. What changed except that contracts are closer to expire. This could be a huge gain for me. I have pulled the quick sell targets and lowered my stop loss to $28.75. I do not want to sell this and figure the stop loss will only get hit if we go to war. I am pretty confident this thing is going to bounce big before Friday. It would be nice to see $36+ here.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Options expire on Saturday. Always a chance someone could exercise early though if it breaks 9 at any point. I would be ecstatic if that happened, I'd get out with a $0.36 per share gain on my original 1000 shares. That would translate to about a 5% gain in a month and a half. Considering I was down 33% or so at one point, that would be awesum.Probably more likely the 9's expire worthless and I keep the premium. Then I can sell the original position at the market price. I'd need it to be over 8.474 to break even (I've got another lot of stock and calls at 7.5 that look likely to finish in the money now that would bring my cost basis down.)
BUILD A BEAR WORKSHP(NYSE: BBW)Real-Time: 4.96 0.55 (12.47%) 2:46PM EThelpBUILD A BEAR WORKSHP
Last Trade: 4.97
Trade Time: 2:49PM ET
Change: 0.56 (12.70%)
Prev Close: 4.41
Open: 4.42
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 8.50
Day's Range
Well I don't know if Z's post was a typo but Build A Bear Workshop is off to the races.
David Dodds
Administrator
Well I had figured to buy Dry Shippers today, but just can't with the BDI down 4% and most of the stocks I like in this sector +6% on the day because the NASDAQ ended up strong. I will watch this again tomorrow for an opportunity. EXM report due afterhours. Actually hoping for a bad report so there is some retreating going on.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
Closed @ 2.48David Dodds said:
commisholio
Come out with your pants down!
I think that was a joke about Christo's preference for heifers.BUILD A BEAR WORKSHP(NYSE: BBW)Real-Time: 4.96 0.55 (12.47%) 2:46PM EThelpBUILD A BEAR WORKSHP
Last Trade: 4.97
Trade Time: 2:49PM ET
Change: 0.56 (12.70%)
Prev Close: 4.41
Open: 4.42
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 8.50
Day's Range
Well I don't know if Z's post was a typo but Build A Bear Workshop is off to the races.
Since it broke $5 today I'd be open to some other jokes about Christo.I think that was a joke about Christo's preference for heifers.BUILD A BEAR WORKSHP(NYSE: BBW)Real-Time: 4.96 0.55 (12.47%) 2:46PM EThelpBUILD A BEAR WORKSHP
Last Trade: 4.97
Trade Time: 2:49PM ET
Change: 0.56 (12.70%)
Prev Close: 4.41
Open: 4.42
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 8.50
Day's Range
Well I don't know if Z's post was a typo but Build A Bear Workshop is off to the races.
David Dodds
Administrator
Can you say HOMERUN coming tomorrow? I can. I have no idea what price to even set right now. This report is a slam dunk against higher oil prices. I am thinking SCO could hit 37 or 38 by Friday.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1730440120090317
U.S. crude stocks rose by 4.7 million barrels in the week to March 13, compared with analyst expectations for a 1 million barrel build. Crude imports were down by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), however, according to the API report.
Gasoline stocks increased by 383,000 barrels after a poll of analysts conducted by Reuters forecast a 1.2-million-barrel draw.
Distillate stocks rose by 327,000 barrels, according to the API report, after the poll forecast a 700,000-barrel build.
The rise in products stocks came despite a 310,000 bpd drop in crude oil runs.
"The API numbers on crude inventories are very bearish and reflect poor demand at the refineries," said Phil Flynn, analyst for Alaron Trading in Chicago.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1730440120090317
U.S. crude stocks rose by 4.7 million barrels in the week to March 13, compared with analyst expectations for a 1 million barrel build. Crude imports were down by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd), however, according to the API report.
Gasoline stocks increased by 383,000 barrels after a poll of analysts conducted by Reuters forecast a 1.2-million-barrel draw.
Distillate stocks rose by 327,000 barrels, according to the API report, after the poll forecast a 700,000-barrel build.
The rise in products stocks came despite a 310,000 bpd drop in crude oil runs.
"The API numbers on crude inventories are very bearish and reflect poor demand at the refineries," said Phil Flynn, analyst for Alaron Trading in Chicago.
David Dodds
Administrator
Just like I suspected would happen. Once oil maintained a nice price with a minimal Contango, everyone was going to offload their ships because the Contango no longer supported the $1.25/barrel/mo cost to store it on the Super Tankers. Damn I am so giddy for the market to open tomorrow. I think it's possible I will get $4/$5 per share on my 2,000 shares. Merry Christmas to me.
You da man DD.
David Dodds
Administrator
We just need similar numbers to come out in the official EIA report due at 10:30am tomorrow. I am holding though as I don't think the API guys could miss by the margin it would take to be negated by the EIA report. From past history, oil stocks will move the most after the official 1pm report (and not the 10:30 report)....I have no idea why that is the case. Add in that these increased stockpiles make taking deliveries of April oil really hard and this thing could really be huge the next few days. I think I might set my stops at 3,4, 4.50, and 5 profits at a minimum. I may just sit idly on the sidelines for a bit because I really do expect a rocketship starting in the pre-market and building to the EIA report. At a time when oil is at it's highest this year, this is the worst inventory report I have seen all year.You da man DD.
David Dodds
Administrator
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php
This already had front end oil sliding to $47/barrel before bouncing back. But I think $47 for front end oil will be the high mark once this report and the EIA report gets wider circulation.
This already had front end oil sliding to $47/barrel before bouncing back. But I think $47 for front end oil will be the high mark once this report and the EIA report gets wider circulation.
Ten Yard Fight
Footballguy
Curious why after hours trading doesn't reflect this?
David Dodds
Administrator
the API is not the official report and rarely affects things much. Plus so many less shares are traded in the after-market. But a 4 million barrel build + more gasoline? And this is despite importing 1.3 million less barrels a day. So factor all that in with OPEC not decreasing production and major storage issues at Cushing at a time when people have to take possession of April oil and this thing should get crazy soon. If oil stays flat through tomorrow then I clearly do not understand this market at all.
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Ten Yard Fight
Footballguy
Cool. Very much looking forward to tomorrow too. I haven't been "right" in over a week...
David Dodds
Administrator
I also think this has to do with not being able to find this on google news just by searching on oil. I found it typing oil and API. But I would like to see this move a little in the after-market
David...After reading your replies, it seems that it may be possible to add to my position before 10:30 below $33. I really wanted 400 to 500 shares but don't feel comfortable shorting oil overnight so I held off on further purchases. If you weren't fully invested, what price would you be willing to pay in the morning?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I couldn't get any SCO today even after selling off my UCO and OIL holdings. How can I fix this issue with Zecco holding my funds until the next day? I would have liked to jump on the SCO bandwagon. At least I got rid of my oil holdings before the reports hit.
bigfishboy
Footballguy
I don't know, but I hope you find out.The few zecco sells I have done (all ETF's) have not been released until the next day.
Fidelity told me funds aren't available for 3 days (settlement). I can buy and sell, but i have to wait the three days before buying again. There's nothing to prevent this, but according to them it's a violation of SEC rules and my account will be suspended if I do it 3 times. The way they explained it was that I couldn't use proceeds I hadn't technically hadn't received from stocks I technically hadn't paid for yet to make new purchases.eta n't to could.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I would pay up to $34. If it does not pop at the opening I am adding another 1,000 shares at least if below $34. This seems as much a no-brainer as I have seen so I am sure I am going to get screwed some how.
Thanks.Hopefully that missle strike Obama just ordered on Iran won't screw things up.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Hmph.
I wish this was like going to the window in the sportsbook: cash a ticket, buy another.
BTW, I'm up 5% (incl. held positions) since I started this gambling investing thing. The S&P is down about 11% over that time (Jan 30 -> present).
I wish this was like going to the window in the sportsbook: cash a ticket, buy another.
BTW, I'm up 5% (incl. held positions) since I started this gambling investing thing. The S&P is down about 11% over that time (Jan 30 -> present).
David Dodds
Administrator
The inventory story is further backed up by Japan's decrease in use too. This is the first story that now appears when you google news for oil:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...p;refer=germany
Crude Oil Falls on U.S. Inventory Gain, Japan’s Refining Cuts
By Shigeru Sato and Yuji Okada
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Oil fell from a three-month high after U.S. inventories posted a larger-than-expected gain and Japanese refiners processed less crude.
U.S. oil stockpiles increased 4.66 million barrels to 349.9 million barrels last week, the most in almost two years, the Washington-based American Petroleum Institute said in a report after the close of trading yesterday. Japanese refiners operated plants at 78.4 percent of capacity last week, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous week, according to data released today by the Petroleum Association of Japan.
“Without a substantial recovery in the U.S. economy, crude prices won’t gain momentum to lift them to as high as $60 a barrel,” said Masahiko Sato, a senior analyst at OvalNext Corp. in Tokyo. “Clearly, languishing petroleum demand in Japan led refiners to cutting back on plant operations.”
Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as 84 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $48.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $48.73 at 3:33 p.m. Singapore time.
Yesterday, April futures rose 3.8 percent to $49.16 a barrel, the highest settlement since Dec. 1. Prices have gained 8.4 percent so far this year.
In Japan, refiners led by Nippon Oil Corp., plan to shut down more capacity during the peak spring maintenance season this year, lowering crude oil requirements in the world’s third- biggest user. The move comes after 2008 domestic gasoline sales fell 4.2 percent, the most since 1952.
Japan Refining Cuts
Japanese refiners will halt 1.2 million barrels a day in the second half of June, 25 percent of the country’s refining capacity and up from the 14 percent idled a year earlier.
“The U.S. economy is taking a longer-than-expected period of time to recover,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivative sales manager at Newedge in Tokyo. “Fewer signs are emerging that auto-fuel demand has been stimulated.”
Futures rose yesterday on an unexpected rebound in homebuilding and speculation that the Federal Reserve will outline plans to bolster the U.S. economy.
The Commerce Department report showed that work began on 583,000 homes at an annual rate, a 22 percent increase from January. Oil prices have plunged from a record $147.27 a barrel in July as the U.S., Europe and Japan face recessions. Gasoline and heating-oil futures prices surged, with the motor fuel reaching the highest in four months.
‘Hit Bottom’
“There’s a feeling that maybe the economy has hit the bottom,” said Chip Hodge, a managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston, who oversees a $9 billion natural-resource-company bond portfolio. “For the first time in a while we aren’t looking at mostly negative headlines.”
The unexpected jump in housing starts and speculation about Fed policy also pushed U.S. equities higher. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 3.2 percent to 778.12 yesterday. Gains were carried over into Asia, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising for a fourth day, increasing 0.8 percent to 78.13 as of 3:21 p.m. in Tokyo.
An Energy Department report today is forecast to show that U.S. crude oil inventories gained 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of 14 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The department is scheduled to release its weekly report today at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.
Gasoline stockpiles probably dropped 1.5 million barrels from 212.5 million the prior week, according to the survey. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably rose 1 million barrels from 145.4 million, the survey showed.
Brent crude oil for May settlement fell as much as 84 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $47.40 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange, and traded at $47.78 at 3:37 p.m. Singapore time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...p;refer=germany
Crude Oil Falls on U.S. Inventory Gain, Japan’s Refining Cuts
By Shigeru Sato and Yuji Okada
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Oil fell from a three-month high after U.S. inventories posted a larger-than-expected gain and Japanese refiners processed less crude.
U.S. oil stockpiles increased 4.66 million barrels to 349.9 million barrels last week, the most in almost two years, the Washington-based American Petroleum Institute said in a report after the close of trading yesterday. Japanese refiners operated plants at 78.4 percent of capacity last week, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous week, according to data released today by the Petroleum Association of Japan.
“Without a substantial recovery in the U.S. economy, crude prices won’t gain momentum to lift them to as high as $60 a barrel,” said Masahiko Sato, a senior analyst at OvalNext Corp. in Tokyo. “Clearly, languishing petroleum demand in Japan led refiners to cutting back on plant operations.”
Crude oil for April delivery fell as much as 84 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $48.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $48.73 at 3:33 p.m. Singapore time.
Yesterday, April futures rose 3.8 percent to $49.16 a barrel, the highest settlement since Dec. 1. Prices have gained 8.4 percent so far this year.
In Japan, refiners led by Nippon Oil Corp., plan to shut down more capacity during the peak spring maintenance season this year, lowering crude oil requirements in the world’s third- biggest user. The move comes after 2008 domestic gasoline sales fell 4.2 percent, the most since 1952.
Japan Refining Cuts
Japanese refiners will halt 1.2 million barrels a day in the second half of June, 25 percent of the country’s refining capacity and up from the 14 percent idled a year earlier.
“The U.S. economy is taking a longer-than-expected period of time to recover,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivative sales manager at Newedge in Tokyo. “Fewer signs are emerging that auto-fuel demand has been stimulated.”
Futures rose yesterday on an unexpected rebound in homebuilding and speculation that the Federal Reserve will outline plans to bolster the U.S. economy.
The Commerce Department report showed that work began on 583,000 homes at an annual rate, a 22 percent increase from January. Oil prices have plunged from a record $147.27 a barrel in July as the U.S., Europe and Japan face recessions. Gasoline and heating-oil futures prices surged, with the motor fuel reaching the highest in four months.
‘Hit Bottom’
“There’s a feeling that maybe the economy has hit the bottom,” said Chip Hodge, a managing director at MFC Global Investment Management in Boston, who oversees a $9 billion natural-resource-company bond portfolio. “For the first time in a while we aren’t looking at mostly negative headlines.”
The unexpected jump in housing starts and speculation about Fed policy also pushed U.S. equities higher. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 3.2 percent to 778.12 yesterday. Gains were carried over into Asia, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising for a fourth day, increasing 0.8 percent to 78.13 as of 3:21 p.m. in Tokyo.
An Energy Department report today is forecast to show that U.S. crude oil inventories gained 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the median of 14 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The department is scheduled to release its weekly report today at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.
Gasoline stockpiles probably dropped 1.5 million barrels from 212.5 million the prior week, according to the survey. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, probably rose 1 million barrels from 145.4 million, the survey showed.
Brent crude oil for May settlement fell as much as 84 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $47.40 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange, and traded at $47.78 at 3:37 p.m. Singapore time.
David Dodds
Administrator
I still don't understand with the news that is out there why crude isn't tanking right now. I am going to jump in with my whole portfolio shorting oil (SCO) if I can get in for less than $34/share at the market open. I sure hope my instincts are right here and that there is isn't anything below the weeds that I am just not seeing right now.
David Dodds
Administrator
Well I have tried to find a reason not to add more SCO and I can't find it. Israel and Hamas have increased tensions, but those two fighting do not affect the supply. With Japan consumption down, our stockpiles bulging, and April contracts expiring (forcing people to take delivery), I think oil is headed down (possibly way down). I will be buying another 1,000 shares of SCO and will watch this closely going forward.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Dry Shippers are going to get crushed today. People should look to exit their positions at the opening and buy back in later:
Index is way off as is pre-market NASDAQ
Baltic Supramax 1,632 (-2.45%)
Baltic Handysize 793 (-0.88%)
Baltic Dry 1,861 (-5.72%)
Baltic Capesize 2,157 (-4.18%)
Baltic Panamax 1,660 (-12.59%)
Index is way off as is pre-market NASDAQ
Baltic Supramax 1,632 (-2.45%)
Baltic Handysize 793 (-0.88%)
Baltic Dry 1,861 (-5.72%)
Baltic Capesize 2,157 (-4.18%)
Baltic Panamax 1,660 (-12.59%)
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David Dodds
Administrator
Added 1,000 shares of SCO at 32.69. I now have 3,000 shares at an average cost of 32.87
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Wow you got a good price. my order filled at $32.95.Good jod David, you're already up $700 on today's trade.
David Dodds
Administrator
Wish I could, but commissions will eat up any savings. I think EXM annouces tonite. I'll either add on bad news or ride it out on the good news.
David Dodds
Administrator
I just put a market order in and got lucky I guess. I did not want to miss the opening in case it popped quickly after that. I have more money on the sidelines, but I feel good with my $98K investment here. I hope to be out of all of this Friday, but we will see how the market responds to things. I think there is a strong chance that I could make $3 per share here (possibly even by today).
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David Dodds
Administrator
For those holding SCO like me, where do you plan to sell at?
Lord of Football
Footballguy
If it jumps after the inventory report I'll be out today. Seems like there is an overreaction every week to the inventory report, one way or another.
$36 and I'll be very happy.
$36 and I'll be very happy.
