David Dodds
Administrator
I will probably will sell this in batches because I have such a large stake. I am also targeting $36 here at a minimum.
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Cromedog
Footballguy
I think it depends on how much it jumps after the inventory report...I, like you do not want to be wrong side oil for very long. If it gets a 2-3 dollar bump, I will likely exit.
JaxBill
Footballguy
PRGN also announces tonight. So far, it's holding up. I'm in at 3.79. My hope is that the price has a bad report factored in. Plan on holding for the near term at least.
David Dodds
Administrator
Cromedog
Footballguy
SCO should be up more based on this...
Ten Yard Fight
Footballguy
I'll probably sell at 3:30 PM if it's over 34
David Dodds
Administrator
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petrole...nt/txt/wpsr.txt
I will be heading out to take my daughter to school, but this will be the report when it is available in about a minute. I will analyze this when I get back
I will be heading out to take my daughter to school, but this will be the report when it is available in about a minute. I will analyze this when I get back
David Dodds
Administrator
This has been fun. It's hard sometimes when you miss badly on things (I have certainly had my mistakes), but all in all I think we have all collectively learned a lot of things in this thread. And the fact that I am actually ahead dollars in this crazy economy has been nice too.This has been said before but thanks again for a very cool thread, David. I hope you and everyone in here does very well.
David Dodds
Administrator
Report is AWESOME. Crude is only at 2 Million up (instead of 4 million), but GAS is WAY UP.
More soon.
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 13, 2009
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 14.2 million barrels per day
during the week ending March 13, up 64 thousand barrels per day from the
previous week's average. Refineries operated at 82.1 percent of their operable
capacity last week. Gasoline production rose last week, averaging about 8.9
million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week,
averaging about 4.1 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.2 million barrels per day last week, up
59 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, 571 thousand
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 103
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased 2.0 million barrels from the previous week. At
353.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
increased by 3.2 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the
average range. Finished gasoline inventories fell last week while gasoline
blending components inventories rose during this same time. Distillate fuel
inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels, and are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased
last week by 0.6 million barrels and are above the upper limit of the average
range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels
last week and are above the upper limit of average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.1 million
barrels per day, down by 3.2 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.0 million barrels
per day, up by 1.1 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel
demand has averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down
by 9.3 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 6.4 percent
lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
More soon.
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 13, 2009
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 14.2 million barrels per day
during the week ending March 13, up 64 thousand barrels per day from the
previous week's average. Refineries operated at 82.1 percent of their operable
capacity last week. Gasoline production rose last week, averaging about 8.9
million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week,
averaging about 4.1 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.2 million barrels per day last week, up
59 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, 571 thousand
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 103
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased 2.0 million barrels from the previous week. At
353.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
increased by 3.2 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the
average range. Finished gasoline inventories fell last week while gasoline
blending components inventories rose during this same time. Distillate fuel
inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels, and are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased
last week by 0.6 million barrels and are above the upper limit of the average
range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels
last week and are above the upper limit of average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.1 million
barrels per day, down by 3.2 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.0 million barrels
per day, up by 1.1 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel
demand has averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down
by 9.3 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 6.4 percent
lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.
Lord of Football
Footballguy
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased 2.0 million barrels from the previous week."
I think we are good here.
Petroleum Reserve) increased 2.0 million barrels from the previous week."
I think we are good here.
PROSH DJ-AIG CRUDE(NYSEArca: SCO)Real-Time: 34.82 2.35 (7.24%) 10:42AM EThelp
Yup...
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php
and yup
David Dodds
Administrator
Here are the bulleted points that are AWESOME for SCO:
1. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased 2.0 million barrels from the previous week.
Analysts expect +1.5 million (The estimate is is pretty close, but still headed the wrong direction)
2. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last week.
Analysts expect -1.5 million (This is the HUGE news here and points to an economy not rebounding)
3. Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.1 million
barrels per day, down by 3.2 percent compared to the similar period last year.
I think we see SCO hit 36/37 by Friday if we wait that long to sell. The only thing that could damper this news is if it is reported that a lot of Supertankers offloaded their oil (which I suspect did happen)
1. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased 2.0 million barrels from the previous week.
Analysts expect +1.5 million (The estimate is is pretty close, but still headed the wrong direction)
2. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last week.
Analysts expect -1.5 million (This is the HUGE news here and points to an economy not rebounding)
3. Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.1 million
barrels per day, down by 3.2 percent compared to the similar period last year.
I think we see SCO hit 36/37 by Friday if we wait that long to sell. The only thing that could damper this news is if it is reported that a lot of Supertankers offloaded their oil (which I suspect did happen)
Lord of Football
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm wondering the same. In the past though it seems as if there is a slight pullback and then it jumps again. Hopefully that will be the case here.
David Dodds
Administrator
I am waiting for the 1pm report based on history of it moving way more when the "official" report gets released and picked up by all the news agencies. I think this report is so good that I am willing to wait a bit here for some shakeout to happen.
LOL...David posts this and the price changes direction to the good. I'll shut up and sit in the corner now.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I think I'm gonna use this opportunity to buy back into oil ETFs at a lower price.
DD, what do you see longer term in oil ETFs? Your target sell point for SCO is about 36.00, and you think it should hit that today or maybe tomorrow based on the inventory report, right? Are you still bullish long term on oil? You've mentioned in the past that you see a peak in June, right?
DD, what do you see longer term in oil ETFs? Your target sell point for SCO is about 36.00, and you think it should hit that today or maybe tomorrow based on the inventory report, right? Are you still bullish long term on oil? You've mentioned in the past that you see a peak in June, right?
David Dodds
Administrator
I suspect this thing is going to rollercoaster a bit here with the general trend of crude going lower (SCO going higher). Also remember that Japan announced huge cuts in oil consumption today too that trigger in June (supposedly peak oil timeframe). The gasoline news is VERY bad. Previous weeks have bounced oil upward because of the gasoline consumption. It was triggering that the economy was indeed improving. And with Cushing storage bursting at the seams, I think there is going to be HUGE pressure to unload some of these contracts instead of taking delivery. That usually translates into big discounts and lower oil. There is a lot of pressure downward on crude in my opinion. Outside of a conflict breaking out, oil should be headed lower here until it gets close to $45/barell on the front contracts. I doubt I wait that long to sell though.
David Dodds
Administrator
I am a little more concerned now that Japan's consumption is way off (today's report). I felt our economy was starting to improve up until seeing this report. These questions need to be answered for me to think oil is undervalued.- How much is this report influenced by the offloading of multiple Super Tankers?- How many Super Tankers are holding West Texas crude that could be offloaded in the future?If the report is not an accurate reflection of things because of the Super Tankers offloading, then yes I still think oil could and probably will go higher. I do think peak oil price is moving at least to August now though.
Just unloaded 100 of the recent shares at $1.50 profit ea. Still hold 300 shares at an average price of roughly $32.10.
eta: Out of here to get some work done. Watching these numbers is driving me crazy. Wouldn't want to do this for a living.
eta: Out of here to get some work done. Watching these numbers is driving me crazy. Wouldn't want to do this for a living.
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David Dodds
Administrator
David Dodds
Administrator
We have now hit $35.....Big smile here
Ten Yard Fight
Footballguy
Me too. I'm not making enough money here to justify how much it has derailed my focus from my real job. Thanks a lot DD. Just kidding...
Lord of Football
Footballguy
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Nice job DD...that'll pay the mortgage and then some.
David Dodds
Administrator
For what it's worth, my original thoughts were that I would be happy if front end oil got to $47 (which is where we are at now). But I am waiting as I think $45/46 front end oil now seems possible as I never would have guessed both the Japan consumption news and that gasoline inventories would rise substantially would both be known today.
This past Thursday, SCO hit $41 and based on this latest report, this news is WAY worse a week later. This thing could chug upward all the way to Friday.
This past Thursday, SCO hit $41 and based on this latest report, this news is WAY worse a week later. This thing could chug upward all the way to Friday.
Keerock
Footballguy
All Aboard!
David Dodds
Administrator
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I would agree that the peak oil price for this year is likely mid to end of summer. Japan's economy is in hurt mode big time right now as exports have fallen off a cliff for them. Even their auto industry is doing poorly. Taiwan is in worse shape, with exports down something like 40% or more from their peak only 6-8 months ago. That drop is causing factories to cut down on their hours and in turn cut down on fuel consumption (and raw materials).
Things still need to unwind a bit more before the economy picks back up. Sure it looks like stocks have stabilized around the DOW 7000+ mark, but there's lots more excess to be rung out of the system. Jobs certainly won't start to come back for another 6 months, and without job growth, I don't see oil consumption picking up a whole lot.
Things still need to unwind a bit more before the economy picks back up. Sure it looks like stocks have stabilized around the DOW 7000+ mark, but there's lots more excess to be rung out of the system. Jobs certainly won't start to come back for another 6 months, and without job growth, I don't see oil consumption picking up a whole lot.
Norman Einstein
Footballguy
still a buy at this level?
Cromedog
Footballguy
If you're a gambler...I'd say it's a buy under 34
David Dodds
Administrator
Yes it's a tad frustrating here, but I am holding out that this indeed hits 35 again soon.
Sold 200 BBT @ $8.08
$136 profit less $16 commissions
Still think this stock is a long term buy, but it's been fluctuating so I'll take some profit and buy back on a dip hopefully. I'm up almost $900 on the initial purchase of $2800 just 13 days ago. Open to opinions about where I may be screwing up here in my thinking.
ETA....Frick....fade me like lhucks and tgunz. Now pushing $19.
$136 profit less $16 commissions
Still think this stock is a long term buy, but it's been fluctuating so I'll take some profit and buy back on a dip hopefully. I'm up almost $900 on the initial purchase of $2800 just 13 days ago. Open to opinions about where I may be screwing up here in my thinking.
ETA....Frick....fade me like lhucks and tgunz. Now pushing $19.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
This
Lord of Football
Footballguy
My stop loss is going to hit at this rate...what the heck?
SCO 31.30
SCO 31.30
Cromedog
Footballguy
Not good...not good at all.Oil just hit $50 a barrel. Is there a war going on I don't know about?
Battersbox
Footballguy
Ben Bernanke just kicked all you SCO holders square in the nuggets.
David Dodds
Administrator
wow. Greed killed me here. I had a $6,000+ gain today that I did not take and now SCO is trading at 31.72 for a steep loss. I am holding. I don't get what is going on at all.
Battersbox
Footballguy
It's the dollar. Check out the dollar index since the Fed's announcment...you NEVER see it plunge this fast. When the dollar weakens, oil rallies, every time. It's inexorable.
kip stabone
Footballguy
FavreCo
Footballguy
FAS is the only thing one should be in. Coining $ now. I rode it down, and now I am riding it back up.And...I'm out at $6.8.
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bigfishboy
Footballguy
I banked 70% profit at 4.15 expecting it would correct downward. I don't fault taking profits, but am amazed that this continues to rally. I think about getting in again everyday, but I just can't pull the trigger when it is reboundig so fast.FAS is the only thing one should be in. Coining $ now. I rode it down, and now I am riding it back up.And...I'm out at $6.8.
