What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (3 Viewers)

It's the dollar. Check out the dollar index since the Fed's announcment...you NEVER see it plunge this fast. When the dollar weakens, oil rallies, every time. It's inexorable.
Oil is denominated in dollars, so you will always see an inverse relationship between oil and the $, all other variables aside. I hope that folks here have closed out their oil shorts. If the dollar is going lower oil has a great chance of going up.Today was a pretty good day. My GLD and DBO holdings did very nicely. My GDX holding went insane (yet still underwater there).I did sell BBT too early, but the bull in the china shop just charged in again (out of the blue, as usual). There's no predicting what the Feds are doing.
 
Excel Maritime Announces the Sale of M/V Swift and Fourth Quarter & Year End 2008 Earnings Release UpdateWednesday March 18, 4:05 pm ET ATHENS, GREECE--(MARKET WIRE)--Mar 18, 2009 -- Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (NYSE:EXM - News), an owner and operator of dry bulk carriers and a leading international provider of worldwide seaborne transportation services for dry bulk cargoes, announced today that it has sold the M/V Swift, a Handymax vessel of 37,687 dwt built in 1984, for $3.7 million. The Company expects to realize an approximate loss of $2.4 million from this sale. The Board of Directors has viewed this transaction as opportune, in view of the vessel's fifth special survey that was due by the end of March which would have resulted in a cost in excess of $2 million and approximately 60 days off hire.ADVERTISEMENT In addition the Company announced today that it has delayed its earnings release and conference call for its results for the fourth quarter and year-end 2008, while it negotiates waivers of certain financial covenants in its credit facilities. The Company will provide an update, when appropriate.Wow, everything I touch is turning to pooh.David, you should get your buying opportunity in the morning if you still want to touch this.

 
I put in a buy order for FAS at $7.20. I don't think this rally is done and I think we'll see FAS in double digits before this is done.

 
Bought a bunch of Inflation-Protected bonds last week and made $5500 already :(

oh wait... :unsure:

 
When will they start the stress tests for the banks? Bought some SKF today at $105.69. Did I pay too much?! :clap:

 
Woozy Foozy said:
When will they start the stress tests for the banks? Bought some SKF today at $105.69. Did I pay too much?! :)
The average bear market rally lasts 46 days. This is day 7.Just sayin'. :lmao:
 
eoMMan said:
I put in a buy order for FAS at $7.20. I don't think this rally is done and I think we'll see FAS in double digits before this is done.
Seems odd. Why didn't you but at sub 3? I don't think the rally is done either but I took my $ out of FAS with the win. I am actually now watching FAZ for entry.
 
eoMMan said:
I put in a buy order for FAS at $7.20. I don't think this rally is done and I think we'll see FAS in double digits before this is done.
Seems odd. Why didn't you but at sub 3? I don't think the rally is done either but I took my $ out of FAS with the win. I am actually now watching FAZ for entry.
Good question. And why didn't I buy DXO at $1.90 and sell it yesterday when it hit $2.80? :thumbup: I think FAS will go up more before this rally is done....that's why. Yes, I do wish I got in earlier.
 
Regarding my purchase of AgFeed Industries, Inc. (FEED) earlier this week:

China's Stimulus Fattens Its Agriculture Firms

Lisa LaMotta, 03.18.09, 05:35 PM EDT

Consumers hitting the stores lift NY-listed shares.

Stimulus plans in China are helping consumers to keep their jobs and are providing a lift to the country's agriculture industry. Several New York-listed companies have been posting strong gains thsi week.

Among them, AgFeed Industries (nasdaq: FEED - news - people ), a Chinese-based producer of pig feed, has been experiencing a significant boost of late as the price of feed increases and hog prices come off their highs of last year -- giving it good reason to expect strong margins as China's stimulus plans begin taking affect.

The stock has jumped 134.0% in the last two weeks, trading at $2.34 on Tuesday. Over the past 52 weeks, the company's shares have traded between 90 cents and $21.31.

The company released its 2008 financial results on Monday. AgFeed reported earnings of $16.9 million, or 53 cents per share, up from $6.7 million, or 25 cents per share, in 2007. Excluding $6.26 million in one-time charges related to investor conversion of a note offering, the company posted a 2008 profit of $23.2 million, or 74 cents per share. Revenues nearly quadrupled, to $143.7 million, from $36.2 million the year before. The company acquired hog farms last year. (See "China's AgFeed Pigs Out.")

"AgFeed’s management believes that Chinese market should regain its double-digit growth rates in 2010-2011 due to increasing urbanization and growth of the Chinese middle class," wrote Rodman & Renshaw analyst Joe Giamichael in a note to investors.

In December, the Chinese commercial hog producer and premix feed company suspended a previously announced share buyback program and announced a secondary offering to raise gross proceeds of $8.75 million, citing uncertainty in the capital markets heading into 2009 as the primary reason for the need for new funds. (See "AgFeed In Need.")

...
FEED closed yesterday @ 2.50
 
eoMMan said:
I put in a buy order for FAS at $7.20. I don't think this rally is done and I think we'll see FAS in double digits before this is done.
Seems odd. Why didn't you but at sub 3? I don't think the rally is done either but I took my $ out of FAS with the win. I am actually now watching FAZ for entry.
Good question. And why didn't I buy DXO at $1.90 and sell it yesterday when it hit $2.80? :lmao: I think FAS will go up more before this rally is done....that's why. Yes, I do wish I got in earlier.
And I shouldn't have sold. It's going to open at 7.70 or so. Unreal.
 
eoMMan said:
I put in a buy order for FAS at $7.20. I don't think this rally is done and I think we'll see FAS in double digits before this is done.
Seems odd. Why didn't you but at sub 3? I don't think the rally is done either but I took my $ out of FAS with the win. I am actually now watching FAZ for entry.
Good question. And why didn't I buy DXO at $1.90 and sell it yesterday when it hit $2.80? :popcorn: I think FAS will go up more before this rally is done....that's why. Yes, I do wish I got in earlier.
And I shouldn't have sold. It's going to open at 7.70 or so. Unreal.
Don't feel bad. Like I said, I put in a limit buy order at $7.20 last night. I doubt that I'll get in too. :wall:
 
PRGN missed by a penny and cut their div to a nickel (from .50) but they said their cash flow is good and their fleet is 97% booked for '09.

EXM and the other shippers are up big and PRGN is off by 6 percent. DRYS is up 26%.

 
Covered my SCO by buying 1000 shares of UCO. That puts my downside on UCO at roughly $500 on my remaining shares I didn't sell yesterday. Will look for oil to make a run one direction or another and liquidate the appropriate shares.

 
PRGN missed by a penny and cut their div to a nickel (from .50) but they said their cash flow is good and their fleet is 97% booked for '09.EXM and the other shippers are up big and PRGN is off by 6 percent. DRYS is up 26%.
:goodposting: Thanks DD.
 
Nearing my exit point on UCO. I've been way down and if it hits $9.60 I'm going to liquidate my shares and cover my calls for Mar 9 that looked like they would never be in the money but have found their way there. That's quite alright, I'm happy to be even or up just a few bucks on that one the way it started out.

 
Wow what a frustrating two weeks here.

I sell FAS way too early and it triples from where I had bought in.

I analyze that the Dry Shippers are way undervalued then proceed to watch from the sidelines because the BDI keeps dropping each day (while the ships keep gaining).

I correctly pounce on SCO, watch it climb fast and refuse to lock in my nearly $7K profit only to see it turn on a dime with the Fed announcement and other news.

It feels like I have left $20K+ on the table these last weeks, despite recording some small profits.

So here I sit upside down again shorting oil. Not sure what my exit strategy is here at all anymore as it still seems ridiculous that oil is trading for $51/barrel right now. I am probably going to sell on Friday regardless of what the price is. And once I sell I am not even sure where I would put my money as the Dry Shippers have been up big against a fading BDI. And with China/Russia shipping talks getting heated the BDI will likely stay down for a bit here.

When I sell SCO, that might be my last trade for awhile here as this is taking too much of my time when I would rather be enjoying other things.

 
DD, don't sweat the money you "left on the table" here. That's like thinking about the people you *could* have started on your fantasy team, but went with someone else. You do your best to make the plays that will be the most profitable. You make some good calls and you make some bad calls, and you hope that your good calls outweigh your bad calls by some margin. You seem to be able to make some very good calls and plays, so I wouldn't stress making a few bad ones here and there.

Simply put, you're right more than you're wrong on these things DD, and your profit shows this.

 
When I sell SCO, that might be my last trade for awhile here as this is taking too much of my time when I would rather be enjoying other things.
You can't stop. It's like crack. You may want to stop but you can't.
DD, don't sweat the money you "left on the table" here. That's like thinking about the people you *could* have started on your fantasy team, but went with someone else. You do your best to make the plays that will be the most profitable. You make some good calls and you make some bad calls, and you hope that your good calls outweigh your bad calls by some margin. You seem to be able to make some very good calls and plays, so I wouldn't stress making a few bad ones here and there.Simply put, you're right more than you're wrong on these things DD, and your profit shows this.
LOL...trying to pump up DD. By the way, I agree on both posts above and also upside down in SCO.
 
UCO is getting interesting for me now. The $9.60 mark never hit today and is now looking like it won't. For the most part, I'm pretty much in a neutral position anywhere over $9/share. The covered calls I had were written an $9 and except for a few odd shares, the only difference is which account the money settles in when I close out that position. The shares and the covered calls pretty much trade inversely in lock step this late in the contract.

However, under $9 the calls may expire this weekend where I keep the premium and then I have to make the call of selling UCO outright or continuing to hold and writing more covered calls.

 
Woozy Foozy said:
When will they start the stress tests for the banks? Bought some SKF today at $105.69. Did I pay too much?! :cry:
I picked up a little FAZ yesterday afternoon....
I've lost a little twice with FAZ this week and made a bunch (considering the small amounts risked) with FAS twice. Up $1700 on the week and currently holding 200 FAZ@28.12. Yesterday was a perfect storm for FAS. Short sellers in the morning tipped their hands covering C and AIG in a big way. I jumped in at 5.80. It was going great then the FED announced quantitative easing and it never stopped. I sold at 6.80 missing out on .40 more cents a share, but... these are fun! Tight stop losses and running profits is the plan, but I didn't want to get whipped on FAZ so no stop loss today. :popcorn:
 
In this market you cant look to sell at gains in 10-20% clips anymore.

Start locking in gains in your 5%+ gains instantly. Worst case you wait for it to drop (hopefully) and buy back in later.

 
I don't have the nads to jump into FAZ but it sure looks like it was the move to make at the open.
I'm more comfortable in FAZ than FAS despite having opposite results this week. FAS is beating into the wind. FAZ is the correct market trend, bearish despite recent rallying.
 
Woozy Foozy said:
When will they start the stress tests for the banks? Bought some SKF today at $105.69. Did I pay too much?! :cry:
I picked up a little FAZ yesterday afternoon....
I've lost a little twice with FAZ this week and made a bunch (considering the small amounts risked) with FAS twice. Up $1700 on the week and currently holding 200 FAZ@28.12. Yesterday was a perfect storm for FAS. Short sellers in the morning tipped their hands covering C and AIG in a big way. I jumped in at 5.80. It was going great then the FED announced quantitative easing and it never stopped. I sold at 6.80 missing out on .40 more cents a share, but... these are fun! Tight stop losses and running profits is the plan, but I didn't want to get whipped on FAZ so no stop loss today. :shock:
Whats your exit on FAZ? I'm in it where you are and really can see this going to 70+ (it was over 100 earlier this month). That said, I could also be comfortable locking in a 5-10% profit.I also picked up some SRS yesterday. Guess you could say I think the rally's ovah.
 
Uber said:
I'll be moving to Australia for about a year on a work related transfer. I'm set to to go around August. The drop in the dollar this past week has me wondering if I should conver some currency now. Anyone have any opinion on what the next 5-6 months holds for the USD?
Death. Yesterday should leave no doubt.
 
Heads up for those interested. BBT is almost off 10% today. Looks like a good entry point. If that dividend holds this will be a solid bank to be invested in. I've done a lot of business with them and I know from personal experience that they were much tighter on their investment real estate lending than BAC when the loans were rolling three years ago.

 
Uber said:
I'll be moving to Australia for about a year on a work related transfer. I'm set to to go around August. The drop in the dollar this past week has me wondering if I should conver some currency now. Anyone have any opinion on what the next 5-6 months holds for the USD?
Aussie Dollar looking goodYesterday taught us Bernanke will do everything possible to fight deflation even if he debauchs our money, surreptitiously stealing our savings and causing old ladies on fixed incomes to eat dog food for the benefit of bankers and oil companies. You're probably thinking correctly here.

 
Uber said:
I'll be moving to Australia for about a year on a work related transfer. I'm set to to go around August. The drop in the dollar this past week has me wondering if I should conver some currency now. Anyone have any opinion on what the next 5-6 months holds for the USD?
At the rate we're spending money you may be better off lighting it on fire to heat your home rather than purchasing heating oil.
 
Woozy Foozy said:
When will they start the stress tests for the banks? Bought some SKF today at $105.69. Did I pay too much?! :cry:
I picked up a little FAZ yesterday afternoon....
I've lost a little twice with FAZ this week and made a bunch (considering the small amounts risked) with FAS twice. Up $1700 on the week and currently holding 200 FAZ@28.12. Yesterday was a perfect storm for FAS. Short sellers in the morning tipped their hands covering C and AIG in a big way. I jumped in at 5.80. It was going great then the FED announced quantitative easing and it never stopped. I sold at 6.80 missing out on .40 more cents a share, but... these are fun! Tight stop losses and running profits is the plan, but I didn't want to get whipped on FAZ so no stop loss today. :football:
Whats your exit on FAZ? I'm in it where you are and really can see this going to 70+ (it was over 100 earlier this month). That said, I could also be comfortable locking in a 5-10% profit.I also picked up some SRS yesterday. Guess you could say I think the rally's ovah.
I bought 100 @ 27.00, woke up late, kicking myself I didn't get in lower. Looking to let if run as it take the fund a week to settle anyway. I might sell off half if it hits mid 30's.
 
Heads up for those interested. BBT is almost off 10% today. Looks like a good entry point. If that dividend holds this will be a solid bank to be invested in. I've done a lot of business with them and I know from personal experience that they were much tighter on their investment real estate lending than BAC when the loans were rolling three years ago.
Plus BB&T doesn't sell loans. I have by home and car through them.
 
Uber said:
Uber said:
I'll be moving to Australia for about a year on a work related transfer. I'm set to to go around August. The drop in the dollar this past week has me wondering if I should conver some currency now. Anyone have any opinion on what the next 5-6 months holds for the USD?
Aussie Dollar looking goodYesterday taught us Bernanke will do everything possible to fight deflation even if he debauchs our money, surreptitiously stealing our savings and causing old ladies on fixed incomes to eat dog food for the benefit of bankers and oil companies. You're probably thinking correctly here.
:popcorn: Going to exchange some this week. Been hearing good things about OzForEx.
Be glad you've waited. I bought some AU$ last year at .9111. After it ran up above .98 it's been off the cliff.
 
Uber said:
I'll be moving to Australia for about a year on a work related transfer. I'm set to to go around August. The drop in the dollar this past week has me wondering if I should conver some currency now. Anyone have any opinion on what the next 5-6 months holds for the USD?
Well it looks like the FED has no rela interest in a strong dollar right now, so that means that if anything, the dollar will only rebound slightly from where it is.Personally, I'd find do the research and try to find the least expensive way to convert the $$. Usually, that means finding a private party to exchange cash with. I did this when i moved to Europe, and swapped about $4k for € with a friend that was living in Paris. I sent $$ to her US account from my account, and she sent € to my Spanish account from her French account.Maybe you could work something out with an American that is already over there.Oh BTW, congrats on the transfer. I'm jealous. Are you married? How long will you be there? What type of work? Living abroad is a great experience. I'd do it again in a heartbeat (although after 1.5 years I was ready to come back to the US). Best of luck and keep us updated.
 
Heads up for those interested. BBT is almost off 10% today. Looks like a good entry point. If that dividend holds this will be a solid bank to be invested in. I've done a lot of business with them and I know from personal experience that they were much tighter on their investment real estate lending than BAC when the loans were rolling three years ago.
I think they're getting real close to cutting it. Their payout ratio is on its way above 70%.
 
Woozy Foozy said:
When will they start the stress tests for the banks? Bought some SKF today at $105.69. Did I pay too much?! :cry:
I picked up a little FAZ yesterday afternoon....
I've lost a little twice with FAZ this week and made a bunch (considering the small amounts risked) with FAS twice. Up $1700 on the week and currently holding 200 FAZ@28.12. Yesterday was a perfect storm for FAS. Short sellers in the morning tipped their hands covering C and AIG in a big way. I jumped in at 5.80. It was going great then the FED announced quantitative easing and it never stopped. I sold at 6.80 missing out on .40 more cents a share, but... these are fun! Tight stop losses and running profits is the plan, but I didn't want to get whipped on FAZ so no stop loss today. :goodposting:
Whats your exit on FAZ? I'm in it where you are and really can see this going to 70+ (it was over 100 earlier this month). That said, I could also be comfortable locking in a 5-10% profit.I also picked up some SRS yesterday. Guess you could say I think the rally's ovah.
I bought 100 @ 27.00, woke up late, kicking myself I didn't get in lower. Looking to let if run as it take the fund a week to settle anyway. I might sell off half if it hits mid 30's.
I like this thinking. I might be a little more patient than mid 30s because of the way these 3Xs accelerate, but I wouldn't wait for 70. I'm not a fan of holding these for long, even over night brings a little insomnia.
 
I like this thinking. I might be a little more patient than mid 30s because of the way these 3Xs accelerate, but I wouldn't wait for 70. I'm not a fan of holding these for long, even over night brings a little insomnia.
I'm out. The possibility of a late day rally scares me on this.
 
I like this thinking. I might be a little more patient than mid 30s because of the way these 3Xs accelerate, but I wouldn't wait for 70. I'm not a fan of holding these for long, even over night brings a little insomnia.
I'm out. The possibility of a late day rally scares me on this.
Hah! I just stopped in to say the same thing, but I was considering Siff from the Crash thread. 3/19/2009 Sell 200 FAZ DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST $30.200 $00.00 $6,025.01That's +400; 2100 on the week. I think I'll take tomorrow off and go fishing or something.
 
Heads up for those interested. BBT is almost off 10% today. Looks like a good entry point. If that dividend holds this will be a solid bank to be invested in. I've done a lot of business with them and I know from personal experience that they were much tighter on their investment real estate lending than BAC when the loans were rolling three years ago.
I think they're getting real close to cutting it. Their payout ratio is on its way above 70%.
I agree (as does the Morningstar Dividend newsletter guy). If you are interested in the common it may be better to wait until they do cut the dividend. These announcements have bee (in general) accepted well by the market. I sold out of BBT and may get back in later, if it gets trounced again.I do own the preferred of BBT, though, and plan on holding it quite a while.
 
I like this thinking. I might be a little more patient than mid 30s because of the way these 3Xs accelerate, but I wouldn't wait for 70. I'm not a fan of holding these for long, even over night brings a little insomnia.
I'm out. The possibility of a late day rally scares me on this.
Hah! I just stopped in to say the same thing, but I was considering Siff from the Crash thread. 3/19/2009 Sell 200 FAZ DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST $30.200 $00.00 $6,025.01That's +400; 2100 on the week. I think I'll take tomorrow off and go fishing or something.
:thumbup: My brother from another mother. Now if I can only change your mind about gold. Siffs post is what put me over the edge.
 
Bought 4,000 PRGN at 3.60. Yes they cut their dividend, but this is a strong company that will do OK going forward. With the whole sector up and they are down 13%, this feels relatively safe. Now we just need the BDI to start increasing with the NASDAQ

 
Random said:
Now if I can only change your mind about gold. Siffs post is what put me over the edge.
Yeah, that guy comes in handy. Bernanke is changing my mind about gold so you don't have to. Off topic a little by I see gold in a new higher range since yesterday. I'd be stunned if my earlier deflation fears come true (500-700), but I still think deleveraging balance sheets and more massive write offs keep inflation in check too. Everything is going to collapse sooner or later. :thumbup:GL, bro
 
Chaos Commish said:
Random said:
Chaos Commish said:
I like this thinking. I might be a little more patient than mid 30s because of the way these 3Xs accelerate, but I wouldn't wait for 70. I'm not a fan of holding these for long, even over night brings a little insomnia.
I'm out. The possibility of a late day rally scares me on this.
Hah! I just stopped in to say the same thing, but I was considering Siff from the Crash thread. 3/19/2009 Sell 200 FAZ DIREXION SHARES ETF TRUST $30.200 $00.00 $6,025.01That's +400; 2100 on the week. I think I'll take tomorrow off and go fishing or something.
I'm letting ride, probably will get burned but nice take.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top