My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)

[FavreCo]

Covered my SCO by buying 1000 shares of UCO. That puts my downside on UCO at roughly $500 on my remaining shares I didn't sell yesterday. Will look for oil to make a run one direction or another and liquidate the appropriate shares.

I thought about that at one time but it appears to be a not so great idea.For instance, today you are up 5.09% on UCO but down 6.11% on SCO.To do it with FAS/FAZ today would have netted a 5% loss for the day.At the Wall Street casino, you got to either bet the pass line or the don't pass line.

 

[BassNBrew]

Covered my SCO by buying 1000 shares of UCO. That puts my downside on UCO at roughly $500 on my remaining shares I didn't sell yesterday. Will look for oil to make a run one direction or another and liquidate the appropriate shares.

I thought about that at one time but it appears to be a not so great idea.For instance, today you are up 5.09% on UCO but down 6.11% on SCO.To do it with FAS/FAZ today would have netted a 5% loss for the day.At the Wall Street casino, you got to either bet the pass line or the don't pass line.

I'll go back and look at the exact numbers when I bought and post later. Oil was in a tight trading range for most of the day. All I'm hoping for now is panic movement one way....hopefully ending up short or long in a place than $51 oil.FWIW...Fidelity sent me a 500 page novel triggered on something I bought. Lots of talk about Deutsche Bank.

 

[The Kerminator]

Anybody have an opinion on Smith & Wesson (SWHC) or Sturm Ruger (RGR)? Both have been going up consistently. I also work at a printing company and we've been doing instruction sheets for a gun parts supplier. We can't turn out the instruction sheets fast enough for them. Seems gun sales are HOT.

 

[IC FBGCav]

roku

Can you buy stock in this company? Am I late on this, wife was asking?

 

[Woozy Foozy]

When will they start the stress tests for the banks? Bought some SKF today at $105.69. Did I pay too much?!

I picked up a little FAZ yesterday afternoon....

500 SKF at $105.69, up $13.41 for unrealized gain of $6,705.

 

[BassNBrew]

Covered my SCO by buying 1000 shares of UCO. That puts my downside on UCO at roughly $500 on my remaining shares I didn't sell yesterday. Will look for oil to make a run one direction or another and liquidate the appropriate shares.

I thought about that at one time but it appears to be a not so great idea.For instance, today you are up 5.09% on UCO but down 6.11% on SCO.To do it with FAS/FAZ today would have netted a 5% loss for the day.At the Wall Street casino, you got to either bet the pass line or the don't pass line.

I'll go back and look at the exact numbers when I bought and post later. Oil was in a tight trading range for most of the day. All I'm hoping for now is panic movement one way....hopefully ending up short or long in a place than $51 oil.FWIW...Fidelity sent me a 500 page novel triggered on something I bought. Lots of talk about Deutsche Bank.

Based on the time I "covered" today.UCO: -$170SCO: +$130Looks like I pissed away $40. About a 4 cent spread on the UCO.

 

[eoMMan]

roku

Can you buy stock in this company? Am I late on this, wife was asking?

Doesn't look like it.http://www.roku.com/about/company.php

Roku, Inc., is a privately held company located in Saratoga, Calif., and founded in 2002 by Anthony Wood, the inventor of the digital video recorder (DVR). Roku is a leading supplier of innovative and easy to use digital media products. Our best known consumer products are the Roku Digital Video Player and the stylish SoundBridge Internet radio line.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Anyone else still in FAZ? It's covered my entire SCO loss.

 

[Cromedog]

Anyone else still in FAZ? It's covered my entire SCO loss.

I was thinking it was time to get into FAS

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Anyone else still in FAZ? It's covered my entire SCO loss.

I was thinking it was time to get into FAS

Could be...I'm about to get out of FAZ with a 20% two day gain.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Anyone else still in FAZ? It's covered my entire SCO loss.

Yes still in and gambling.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Anyone else still in FAZ? It's covered my entire SCO loss.

Yes still in and gambling.

What are you looking for to get out of it today?

 

[Mark Davis]

Out on UCO. Sold most of mine at $9.60 just now. Unfortunately had my covered calls in another account and by the time I could close those had lost $.10/share in that run up. This thing is so all over the place I just closed them out. I have another 100 shares in the same account with a covered call on those at $7.50. About to close those out as well. Looks like I'll be out of this thing losing about a whopping $20. Not too bad considering how it started out.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Anyone else still in FAZ? It's covered my entire SCO loss.

Yes still in and gambling.

What are you looking for to get out of it today?

40.00But I will start considering over 35.00.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Interesting. It started the week at 38.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Interesting. It started the week at 38.

I'm up 20% right now in @ 27.00. As long as it keeps climbing, I am going to wait it out. Probably won't hold over the weekend though, but who knows.

 

[FavreCo]

Anyone else still in FAZ? It's covered my entire SCO loss.

I was thinking it was time to get into FAS

Hold out for a lower price.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Interesting. It started the week at 38.

I'm up 20% right now in @ 27.00. As long as it keeps climbing, I am going to wait it out. Probably won't hold over the weekend though, but who knows.

I'm in at 28.23. I think I'll probably sell one hour before the market closes, regardless of price.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Interesting. It started the week at 38.

I'm up 20% right now in @ 27.00. As long as it keeps climbing, I am going to wait it out. Probably won't hold over the weekend though, but who knows.

I'm in at 28.23. I think I'll probably sell one hour before the market closes, regardless of price.

I would watch it closely, it seems like it runs big in the direction it was heading all day the last hour. 3 out of the last 4 Friday's the stock closed while moving up.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Now the question is what to do with SCO? I think many of us are still sitting on what we bought Tuesday. I'm thinking of doubling down. Looks to me like the stock market rally has pushed oil prices up and they will trade more in line with the fundamentals next week.

 

[BR33ZE]

Now the question is what to do with SCO? I think many of us are still sitting on what we bought Tuesday. I'm thinking of doubling down. Looks to me like the stock market rally has pushed oil prices up and they will trade more in line with the fundamentals next week.

lol

 

[bigfishboy]

I was thinking it was time to get into FAS

Hold out for a lower price.

I have a limit order in at around $5. It could go lower in the near future, but I will double down at every $1 lost. I have watched this enough to know how fast it moves, any good news will bounce this strongly. And I have to believe over the long run it will be up. The Fed will not let these banks go under.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Put in a sell @ 34.50 for FAZ, been watching it all day and it is driving nuts, I think it has a chance to keep going higher though.

 

[IC FBGCav]

I sold 50 Faz @ 34.50 for 375.00 profit. Let the other 50 ride.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Interesting. It started the week at 38.

I'm up 20% right now in @ 27.00. As long as it keeps climbing, I am going to wait it out. Probably won't hold over the weekend though, but who knows.

I'm in at 28.23. I think I'll probably sell one hour before the market closes, regardless of price.

I would watch it closely, it seems like it runs big in the direction it was heading all day the last hour. 3 out of the last 4 Friday's the stock closed while moving up.

Very good call here. Took your advice and waited till the last minute to sell at 34.85. 23% in two days.

 

[Buckna]

EXM got shellacked today, down 15%. Any ideas as to why?

 

[None_More_Black]

EXM got shellacked today, down 15%. Any ideas as to why?

I know Wachovia downgraded the drybulk sector to market perform from outperform. They basically said they liked the sector long term but felt that the stocks may have peaked in the short term because China's inventories were basically full now and the peak of the grain shipping season had passed. They said there should be some better opportunities to buy coming up. I own DSX as a long term investment because they have an almost zero chance of going bankrupt but should move up quite a bit when the economy recovers, even if it takes a couple years.

 

[BassNBrew]

EXM got shellacked today, down 15%. Any ideas as to why?

Wednesday night they postponed results and sold ship. I thought it would get crushed as that seems fishy, but it was up huge. Should have sold at $4.80 and pocketed the gain. It's back down to my orginal purchase price. Both big runs up and down were on normal volume.

 

[BassNBrew]

Covered my SCO by buying 1000 shares of UCO. That puts my downside on UCO at roughly $500 on my remaining shares I didn't sell yesterday. Will look for oil to make a run one direction or another and liquidate the appropriate shares.

I thought about that at one time but it appears to be a not so great idea.For instance, today you are up 5.09% on UCO but down 6.11% on SCO.To do it with FAS/FAZ today would have netted a 5% loss for the day.At the Wall Street casino, you got to either bet the pass line or the don't pass line.

I'll go back and look at the exact numbers when I bought and post later. Oil was in a tight trading range for most of the day. All I'm hoping for now is panic movement one way....hopefully ending up short or long in a place than $51 oil.FWIW...Fidelity sent me a 500 page novel triggered on something I bought. Lots of talk about Deutsche Bank.

Based on the time I "covered" today.UCO: -$170SCO: +$130Looks like I pissed away $40. About a 4 cent spread on the UCO.

-$228 on SCO+250 on UCONet $22 today. Desparately want to liquidate but never caught the prices at a good place when I was around today.

 

[Philo]

Could be the end of the dead cat bounce.

 

[David Dodds]

Too many things to do in my life now that the weather has improved to sit and watch the stocks all day, so going to set some limits and see where it goes from here:

I have set a limit on my SCO to execute at 32.00 (small loss if triggered) and a Stop loss at 25.75. I will admit that I am super confused why oil is heading higher and think the vast majority of the indicators should have it go lower. But that said, it's not behaving rationally and i don't care to lose a small fortune on the wrong side of oil.

Dry Shippers were way over priced this week with the BDI down considerably. Another selloff like FRiday though and I will likely get back in to hold through June.

 

[Lord of Football]

David,

Assuming the BDI stays around the same level next week what would be your target price for EXM? I'd like to buy and hold till around mid May. I'm hoping that the markets take a dive next week and I can get in around 3.25 to 3.50 without the BDI going much lower.

 

[David Dodds]

David,Assuming the BDI stays around the same level next week what would be your target price for EXM? I'd like to buy and hold till around mid May. I'm hoping that the markets take a dive next week and I can get in around 3.25 to 3.50 without the BDI going much lower.

I think anything below 3.65 for EXM will be a good price. It was at 4.00 when the BDI was around 700. If oil drops as expected this coming week, I might just reload with the shipping sector and wait this stuff out. This past week showed you how fast this sector will spurt up the minute all of the indicators are saying we are pulling out of the recession.I will probably redo my study on the Shipping Sector since it has moved so much the past week. I still think the stocks to own longer term are EXM, PRGN, and DRYS as they own a good portion of the fleet.

 

[David Dodds]

DAHLMAN Rose analyst Omar Nokta tagged a ‘sell’ rating on Excel

Maritime shares today following the company’s earnings delay. Nokta

said that “Excel appears to be in violation or close to violating five

covenants” of its Nordea-led credit facility. The analyst does not

expect bankers to force Excel into liquidation, given that it had

$225M in cash balances for debt repayment as of 3Q08. Yet he does

believe “banks will take a more active role, which should limit the

value available to equity holders”. Nokta estimates Excel’s fleet

value at $1.27Bn, versus around $1.36Bn in net debt. This would spur

violations of vessel fair market value and leverage covenants. He also

speculated that Excel will be forced to take a nearly $1Bn write-down

on assets acquired in the Quintana transaction. This would create risk

of a major breach in the minimum net worth covenant. In addition, he

believes Excel’s 3Q08 carried goodwill of $321M will be “written down

to zero”. Nokta believes that previously announced counterparty

defaults are also exposing Excel to possible breaches of its interest

coverage ratio and net debt-to-EBITDA covenants.

 

[David Dodds]

Louis Dreyfus warns worst is yet to come for dry bulk

Lloyds List; Andrew Spurrier, Paris - Friday 20 March 2009

LEADING French bulker operator Louis Dreyfus Armateurs (LDA) has

warned that the worst of the slump currently afflicting the dry bulk

shipping market still lies ahead.

LDA chairman Philippe Louis-Dreyfus predicted tougher times ahead next

year and the year after, as newbuilding deliveries reach their peak.

“We think that the worst is yet to come,” he told Lloyd’s List,

arguing that last year’s market slump had not taken account of the

heavy over-ordering, which he said was the dry bulk sector’s main

problem.

Mr Louis-Dreyfus, whose company is planning to spend up to €1bn

($1.4bn) on new vessels over the next few years, many of them for its

core dry bulk business, said that LDA expected further reductions in

newbuilding prices as the market anticipated the glut of new

deliveries expected in 2010 and 2011.

“We think that there will be some interesting bargains in the second

half of 2009,” he said.

He added that he believed that the current crisis in the dry bulk

sector would last longer than many people expected.

“It will not last for five years,” he said, “but it will not last for

six months either.”

 

[David Dodds]

and this is the reason I love this sector long though:

Two thirds of dry-cargo newbuildings penned for delivery next year

could be axed or delayed by shipowners, HSBC warns.

Analysts Steve Man and Ankur Sharma say cancellations will accelerate

with only 36.8m dwt of the 104.5m dwt in the 2010 dry-cargo orderbook

likely to be delivered, a fall of 65%.

“With bulk shipping lines cutting capacity to adjust to lower demand,

the massive deliveries for bulkers scheduled for 2009-2011 will need

to be deferred. Cosco Singapore’s deferment of 26 bulkers is a case in

point and other bulk makers are expected to follow suit.” the pair

wrote in a report.

“Orders placed after mid 2007 are most at risk of cancellation since

most of these orders are at the initial phase of completion and ship

buyers would like to either completely cancel these orders or

renegotiate at a lower price with the yard.

“Additionally, for orders placed in 2008 construction work would still

have to commence, making them more likely to be cancelled.”

Man and Sharma add cancellations and delivery deferments will slice

between 30% and 40% from this year's dry-bulk delivery schedule. In

2011, 50% to 60% of bulkers will not arrive.

They said: “In our view, it is in the interest of the yards to defer

deliveries. This is because orders have almost dried up since 2H08 and

if shipyards continue to deliver vessels as per the current schedule

they would effectively have no work left after 2011.

“Therefore, yards would prefer to defer deliveries to adjust to market

demand and so that they continue to be in operation post 2011.”

The HSBC pair project peak delivery of bulkers will now occur in 2009

at just over 40m dwt, a year before the scheduled summit of around

105m dwt.

On the tanker side Man and Sharma say the risk of chopped and delayed

orders is lower, helped by the phasing out of single hull vessels.

They expect to see a 15% to 25% reduction in the existing orderbook

this year and next, with the biggest fall coming in 2011 with between

20% and 30% of the expected vessels axed or pushed back.

 

[David Dodds]

My strategy here with the Dry Shippers is to let some of this bad news take hold (EXM and DRY quarterly reports) as well as the recent analyst downgrades before buying hard into this sector. With the lack of new ships in the pipeline this sector should pop strong if the global economy does indeed rebound.

 

[Ned]

FAZ getting killed in pre-market this morning. -19%

 

[Buckna]

Not surprising given the $1 Trillion dollar Toxic Asset Fund the government is setting up. I figured oil would be going thru the roof with more inflationary stimulus, but so far not much going on.

~~~~~~~~~~~

General guestion to anybody: It looks like all my UCO calls got exercised this weekend as I am out all UCO but the calls are still showing up in my positions detail despite being expired. I guess I should just assume this is my brokers website a little behind on reflecting all the transaction data?

 

[Mark Davis]

GE just keeps giving gifts. I had covered calls written for 10 that expired Friday. GE had been over 10 and had assumed my shares would be sold. It dipped on Friday below the strike price and now right back over $10. So I keep my premium and the shares. Just wrote some April 11 covered calls for another $.50/share. I'll either cash in an extra $1.50 or shave another $.50 off the cost.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Interesting. It started the week at 38.

I'm up 20% right now in @ 27.00. As long as it keeps climbing, I am going to wait it out. Probably won't hold over the weekend though, but who knows.

I'm in at 28.23. I think I'll probably sell one hour before the market closes, regardless of price.

I would watch it closely, it seems like it runs big in the direction it was heading all day the last hour. 3 out of the last 4 Friday's the stock closed while moving up.

Very good call here. Took your advice and waited till the last minute to sell at 34.85. 23% in two days.

Wow. Best timing ever. Down 24% in the 1st 50 minutes of trading. Too bad, like everyone else, my brokerage wouldn't let me put that money to work right away in FAS.

 

[Buckna]

Okay, after doing all the math with the options I am OUT 1,400 UCO with a gain of $517.89 for about a 4.1% gain over a month and a half. Considering I was down over a third just a few weeks ago, I'm happy with that.

Now what to buy next?

 

[Lord of Football]

Fairly frustrating so far but I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a while. I'd like to get into FAZ but probably not until the end of the day and only if it drops another $1 or so.

Wanted to buy some EXM but it really should not be higher today.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

In 4000 DXO at $2.53, I can't help myself.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

In 4000 DXO at $2.53, I can't help myself.

You still hold those I gather? Nice one!

 

[Mark Davis]

Okay, after doing all the math with the options I am OUT 1,400 UCO with a gain of $517.89 for about a 4.1% gain over a month and a half. Considering I was down over a third just a few weeks ago, I'm happy with that.Now what to buy next?

That was one hell of a houdini move.

 

[Buckna]

Okay, after doing all the math with the options I am OUT 1,400 UCO with a gain of $517.89 for about a 4.1% gain over a month and a half. Considering I was down over a third just a few weeks ago, I'm happy with that.Now what to buy next?

That was one hell of a houdini move.

What's funny is I would have made out better had I never sold the options, but when UCO was down in the 6's I never thought it would make it back to the 10's. Especially when it bled out 15% of its value rolling over futures contracts. No use splitting hairs over a few hundred bucks though.

 

[Lord of Football]

Put an order in for 300 shares of FAZ at 25.50

"Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares topped the list at midday on Monday for Buying on Weakness, which tracks stocks that fell in price but had the largest inflow of money. See the full list."

Has not filled yet but I'll wait. I think over 26% on the bank plan in one day is just too much.

 

[Buckna]

Trying something out since I'm still learning here.

Bought 1,000 EXM at 4.08. Sold 10 June calls with a strike of $5 for $0.834 after comission. Puts my cost basis at $3.246 protecting me from a 20% downside from today's price. If they end up in the money in June, I make 54% in 3 months. We'll see how it goes.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

In 4000 DXO at $2.53, I can't help myself.

You still hold those I gather? Nice one!

Thanks I've been buying & selling all year but I'm holding. For now...