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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
sold 1,000 SCO at 29.08. Hoping it gets back there again.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
lolSorry man. Been there before.It would take a lot of nuts but being on the right side of shorting FAZ may be one of the fastest ways to CHA-CHING around.ETA- S&P breaking through 820 resistance again is a pretty positive sign. There may be some at around 835 but it is not strong. Looks like a move to 850 to me before serious resistance again.
Last edited by a moderator:
Haraldur
Footballguy
Playing this stock really is the equivalent of going to the track.
Same here. Thank you Fed and Treasury Dept for kicking me in the teeth with all this "stimulus."
Biabreakable
Footballguy
It is.But I want to scratch my previous comment as I didn't realize FAZ was this beat down. Last time I messed with it FAZ was trading in the 40-60 range.
FavreCo
Footballguy
I should have just stayed in FAS.
David Dodds
Administrator
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending March 20, 2009
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.1 million barrels per day during the
week ending March 20, down 45 thousand barrels per day from the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 82.0 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production fell last week, averaging 8.7 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 3.7 million barrels
per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.4 million barrels per day last week, up
204 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged nearly 9.2 million barrels per day, 413 thousand
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 449
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased 3.3 million barrels from the previous week. At
356.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
decreased by 1.1 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the
average range. Finished gasoline inventories fell last week while gasoline
blending components inventories rose during this same time. Distillate fuel
inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels, and are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased
last week by 0.6 million barrels and are above the upper limit of the average
range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels
last week and are above the upper limit of average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.1 million
barrels per day, down by 3.2 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.1 million
barrels per day, up by 0.7 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged about 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four
weeks, down by 9.0 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is
5.1 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period
last year.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.1 million barrels per day during the
week ending March 20, down 45 thousand barrels per day from the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 82.0 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production fell last week, averaging 8.7 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 3.7 million barrels
per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 9.4 million barrels per day last week, up
204 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks,
crude oil imports have averaged nearly 9.2 million barrels per day, 413 thousand
barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 449
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) increased 3.3 million barrels from the previous week. At
356.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
decreased by 1.1 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the
average range. Finished gasoline inventories fell last week while gasoline
blending components inventories rose during this same time. Distillate fuel
inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels, and are above the upper limit of
the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased
last week by 0.6 million barrels and are above the upper limit of the average
range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels
last week and are above the upper limit of average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.1 million
barrels per day, down by 3.2 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.1 million
barrels per day, up by 0.7 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged about 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four
weeks, down by 9.0 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is
5.1 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period
last year.
Deadpool
Footballguy
doubled my $ position on faz just now...avg is 23.13...
Mark Davis
Footballguy
Question here to those who may understand these 2x and 3x ETF's much better than me.... Is the real play here to short them?
If you assume FAS and FAZ are inverse, same with the oil stocks, I forget which symbols are inverse, why are both sides near lows and down so far from the highs? I know financials have recovered some, but not so much that they aren't way below what they were 7-8 months ago. I assumed with oil for awhile it was the upward trending curve on the futures contracts and it was the effect of rolling the contracts. However, I'm seeing this in the financial 2x and 3x shares as well.
I know I'm missing something here and not understanding these ETF's. It's why after I sold out of UCO I'm merely a spectator on the 2x and 3x ETFs now.
If you assume FAS and FAZ are inverse, same with the oil stocks, I forget which symbols are inverse, why are both sides near lows and down so far from the highs? I know financials have recovered some, but not so much that they aren't way below what they were 7-8 months ago. I assumed with oil for awhile it was the upward trending curve on the futures contracts and it was the effect of rolling the contracts. However, I'm seeing this in the financial 2x and 3x shares as well.
I know I'm missing something here and not understanding these ETF's. It's why after I sold out of UCO I'm merely a spectator on the 2x and 3x ETFs now.
siffoin
Footballguy
I've also wondered why a short straddle on both wouldn't be hugely profitable.
Out of the SCO at a -$413 loss.Well this wonderful journey in oil etfs netted me $275 profit. Pretty happy that I was able to maneuver a loss that was approaching a grand into a small profit and learning a few things along the way.
W
Woozy Foozy
Guest
Have been away 5 days for some skiing. What's been going on???
The amount you spent having fun the last 5 days, I pissed away in the market.
W
Woozy Foozy
Guest
That's exactly why you should have fun once in a while.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Why? I'll follow your lead if you can give me a reason.
W
Woozy Foozy
Guest
Looks like you need more patience...
FavreCo
Footballguy
Yep. ####### POS. That cost me.
W
Woozy Foozy
Guest
Looks like you need to work on your timing...
W
Woozy Foozy
Guest
Remember people. It's buy LOW, sell HIGH. Not the other way around. 
Seems to be good support around $17 for this stock. I like it long term, even if they cut the dividend by 50%. It's already back up to $18 so I would buy on dip. Just be aware if they do cut the dividend like many expect, it will take a short term hit so you may want to look elsewhere. I'd be leary of follwing my lead and look to some others in this thread.
FavreCo
Footballguy
Maybe I could announce my moves, everyone else can do the opposite and then send me 2x my initial investments since mine are bound to be the wrong move.Just a thought.Remember people. It's buy LOW, sell HIGH. Not the other way around.
W
Woozy Foozy
Guest
You came up with this idea all by yourself?Maybe I could announce my moves, everyone else can do the opposite and then send me 2x my initial investments since mine are bound to be the wrong move.Just a thought.Remember people. It's buy LOW, sell HIGH. Not the other way around.
siffoin
Footballguy
FWIW: Beginning to see the first signs that FAZ is/has put in a bottom. The sell trend that has be in force since 3/10 is rolling over from a sell to a buy.
A close over $23.80 on a 120 minute chart would be confirmation. Not there yet but close.
Seeing similar signs on the DOW, SP500 and QQQQ. All are showing the first signs of putting in a ST top on the buy trend in effect since 3/10.
No confirmation yet...but it is possible we're beginning to see the 1st signs of the market rolling over...short term.
A close over $23.80 on a 120 minute chart would be confirmation. Not there yet but close.
Seeing similar signs on the DOW, SP500 and QQQQ. All are showing the first signs of putting in a ST top on the buy trend in effect since 3/10.
No confirmation yet...but it is possible we're beginning to see the 1st signs of the market rolling over...short term.
W
Woozy Foozy
Guest
Sorry, is this a recommendation to buy or sell?
FavreCo
Footballguy
Yes.
siffoin
Footballguy
Just saying what I see. The trend on FAZ is down and has been so since 3/10 (and the DOW, SP500 and QQQQ is still up). BUT, I'm seeing the first signs that the market may be rolling over. For FAZ, confirmation of the trend flipping from a Sell signal to a Buy signal would occur when the price closes ABOVE $23.80 on a 120 minute chart. Has that happened yet? No.Thus if you were short from 3/10...my "recommendation" would be to remain short. I would not entertain going long FAZ until $23.80 is booked.If you are on the sidelines, I'd stay there. It is likely much of the juice has been squeezed from this bull run, but it is too early to commit to a short position (or in the case of FAZ a long position).
Random
Footballguy
Do you think we will see new lows? I only ask because you were so adamant a few months back that new lows were coming and they did.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
Out on this. Got real tired of watching it trade between $0.30 and $0.40. With as much debt as Sirius is carrying plus the number of shares just floating, there's little way this is going anywhere anytime soon.Sold 1000 SIRI @ $0.36; $110 - $12 commission, $98 profit
So my initial investment of $2121 a week ago has realized nearly $100, with about $450 unrealized.
Let's go GPRE and FEED!
Ten Yard Fight
Footballguy
I don't think it is too little to get started. If you really want to gamble, FAZ and FAS are short and long the financial markets TIMES 3. It's like playing blackjack. They moved about 45% in one day Monday. You'll pay betwen $12 and $20 to buy and sell your positions, so you're starting each trade about half a percent down. Dodds is using a large sum of money to trade with. If I recall, he frequently books gains in teh neighborhood of 3%. You don't want to do that. Your commissions would then be 16% of your profit. Instead, consider some trades you're willing to hold a little bit longer.
FavreCo
Footballguy
Correct. It's enough if you play the ETF's. Along with FAS/FAZ, there is SSO and SDS which are 2x the S&P. UYG is 2x financials. You can't buy individual stocks with $2500 unless you buy and hold. Even then, one ####ed up move by a CEO/CFO can take you out and you won't be getting it back. It's gambling but that is all this casino is anymore anyway.
Ten Yard Fight
Footballguy
However, in my opinion, there's not much wrong with dropping that $2500 into an individual stock and then holding it long term. Then, go back to work, make more money. Wash, rinse, repeat. Don't stare at a screen all day.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Job(less) report out next Friday 4/3. Big implications on what is going to happen my friends.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
FavreCo
Footballguy
My guess is that its people loading into oil ahead of any potential economic recovery. When that recovery happens, oil is once again going to shoot thru the roof because it's a finite commodity and oil wells world wide are all in decline. I would say that this Stephen Schork has no clue about peak oil.
Lord of Football
Footballguy
Bought 325 shares of FAZ at 19.68...I'm begging for more punishment.
(looking to unload these quickly...we'll see)
(looking to unload these quickly...we'll see)
FavreCo
Footballguy
Eventually one of us will win on that POS.GL.
bigfishboy
Footballguy
5% loss in 2 hours.I am sitting of FAS believing the Feds will do whatever needed to bail out this sector. I hope you catch a spike on FAZ and get out with a profit.
Mark Davis
Footballguy
Looking at the charts I'm a bit skeptical either of these would be big winners longer term. If I was a believer in FAS I might short FAZ and vice-versa. It just looks like the highs and lows on these things are successively lower each time they make a run.5% loss in 2 hours.I am sitting of FAS believing the Feds will do whatever needed to bail out this sector. I hope you catch a spike on FAZ and get out with a profit.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
Just a heads up...FEED is now trading above the 50 day MA, closing today @ 2.70. Can't help but think if this security passes 3.00, institutions are going to increase holdings...at least I hope.
You mean shorting the ETFs themselves? Or writing options using the ETFs as the underlying security (or can one even do this)?
