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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

Ten Yard Fight said:
Lord of Football said:
rpreswood said:
FAS is down 20% today. Anyone think this is a Buy at $5/share?
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Thinking about sticking my pinky toe in this but I'm a little scared. I'll probably wait until just before the closing bell.
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My guess is that the overall market, including the financials are down for the week. I don't know if I'd jump in FAZ after the 20% run today, but I'd hold it till Friday if I owned it. I'm holding SCO and DXD (Short Dow).
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I'm in with FAZ at 19.50. Going to let it go for a while. Probably shouldn't watch it until Friday.
 
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Since I toot the FAS horn when it goes up, I guess I better take my pill on days like this. I am in at an average of 6.01. I have enjoyed some days of 20% up and felt sick on days like this. But I still sleep comfortably at night believing that in time it will be up. It may take a week or two, or even a month or so, but I fully expect to come out better than even on this.

It sucks to be all in and not be able to average cost down also. But I am on the train and riding for awhile.

 
rpreswood said:
FAS is down 20% today. Anyone think this is a Buy at $5/share?
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Share price is absolutely and completely irrelevant. The price is going to change X% based on rifin 1000. When the market changes direction, both FAS and FAZ holders lose on decay. Just run the math yourself. Start with a number and add 20% and then subtract 20%. Or, start with the number and subtract 20% and then add 20%. Either way, you're going to end up with a lower number than you started. Here's the eye opener:FAS and FAZ track the Russell Financial. RIFIN was at 480 at the November low. Its current level (460) is down 4%. In the same time frame FAS has dropped from 14.65 to 4.85, down 67% and FAZ is down from 164 to 25, or -85%.They will not go to 0 as asserted before though unless theoretically RIFIN moves 33% in a day. Still, Direxion has safeguards in place so that it would not move the full 100%.Use stop loss wisely and do not think you're going to hold for a rebound to recoup your losses. Remember, a 50% down takes a 100% up to get back to the start.Good luck.
 
MikeMan said:
rpreswood said:
FAS is down 20% today. Anyone think this is a Buy at $5/share?
Click to expand...
Share price is absolutely and completely irrelevant. The price is going to change X% based on rifin 1000. When the market changes direction, both FAS and FAZ holders lose on decay. Just run the math yourself. Start with a number and add 20% and then subtract 20%. Or, start with the number and subtract 20% and then add 20%. Either way, you're going to end up with a lower number than you started. Here's the eye opener:FAS and FAZ track the Russell Financial. RIFIN was at 480 at the November low. Its current level (460) is down 4%. In the same time frame FAS has dropped from 14.65 to 4.85, down 67% and FAZ is down from 164 to 25, or -85%.They will not go to 0 as asserted before though unless theoretically RIFIN moves 33% in a day. Still, Direxion has safeguards in place so that it would not move the full 100%.Use stop loss wisely and do not think you're going to hold for a rebound to recoup your losses. Remember, a 50% down takes a 100% up to get back to the start.Good luck.
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:confused: Think I finally get it with these.
 
Should be opening my acct this week. Gonna start with td ameritrade, looks like 30 days of free trades.

 
How are you guys deciding to get into faz or fas? Are you waiting for the market to open and see which way its moving and hopping on the train? Or deciding based on after hours trading? Or what?

 
Ten Yard Fight said:
KGB said:
How are you guys deciding to get into faz or fas? Are you waiting for the market to open and see which way its moving and hopping on the train? Or deciding based on after hours trading? Or what?
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I'm buying each after a 20%+ drop.
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That's essentially what I am doing. I got burned pretty bad by trying to guess a bottom on FAZ, I've found waiting until just before the closing bell is the time to buy and sell these things as they generally are moving pretty fast down / up at the end of the day.
 
BDI is down to 1574 (was as high as 2200) in March. The stock market is also down and all of the shippers started down except for EXM so I sold it off knowing it would get dragged down as well. I belong to a great Dry Shipping mailing list and there is also MAJOR concern with EXM and it's lendors right now. They are ina very similar situation to DRYS regarding their debt covenants and some debt getting placed in short term vice long-term. I am sure these things will get worked out, but it sours me a little more on this company (even though it's priced cheaply)

 
David Dodds said:
BDI is down to 1574 (was as high as 2200) in March. The stock market is also down and all of the shippers started down except for EXM so I sold it off knowing it would get dragged down as well. I belong to a great Dry Shipping mailing list and there is also MAJOR concern with EXM and it's lendors right now. They are ina very similar situation to DRYS regarding their debt covenants and some debt getting placed in short term vice long-term. I am sure these things will get worked out, but it sours me a little more on this company (even though it's priced cheaply)
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Thanks, I read the stuff you posted earlier. This stock scares me. Went up to $4.83 a little while ago. It bounces all over the map on no news. Earnings have been delayed for a week or two. Something smeels fishy.
 
ATHENS, GREECE--(MARKET WIRE)--Apr 1, 2009 -- Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (NYSE:EXM - News), an owner and operator of dry bulk carriers and a leading international provider of worldwide seaborne transportation services for dry bulk cargoes, announced today that it has entered into agreements to amend its credit facilities, agreed to an equity infusion by the Company's major shareholders and set the dates for the release of the fourth quarter and full year 2008 earnings results, conference call and webcast.Related QuotesSymbol Price Change EXM 4.74 +0.22 {"s" : "exm","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""} Credit Facilities AmendmentsThe Company announced that, as part of the amendments to its two credit facilities, it has secured all the appropriate covenant waivers in the Nordea Bank Syndicated Facility and the Credit Suisse Bilateral Facility, valid until the beginning of 2011.Additionally, under the terms of the amended Nordea Bank Syndicated Facility, the Company will also defer principal debt repayments of $150.5 million originally scheduled for 2009 and 2010 to the balloon payment at the end of the facility's term in 2016.During the waiver and deferral periods, the applicable credit facility margins will increase to 2.5% and 2.25%, for the Syndicated Facility and the Credit Suisse Facility, respectively.The Nordea Syndicated Facility and the Credit Suisse Bilateral Facility are the only two credit facilities that the Company has currently outstanding.More details on the terms of the credit facilities amendments will be provided during the Company's fourth quarter and year end 2008 earnings release and conference call.Equity InfusionAs part of the loan restructuring, the Company also announced an equity infusion of $45 million by entities affiliated with the Panayotides family, the Company's major shareholders. An aggregate of 25,714,285 Class A shares and 5,500,000 warrants, with an exercise price of $3.50 per warrant, are to be issued in total. The shares, the warrants and the shares issuable on exercise of the warrants will be subject to 12-month lock-ups from March 31, 2009. In this connection, the Company has the option to defer, again to the balloon payment in 2016, additional principal debt repayments in an amount of up to 100% of the equity contributed by the major shareholders during 2009 and 2010.The Chairman of the Board, Mr. Gabriel Panayotides, commented, "We are pleased to announce the successful restructuring of our loan facilities and would like to thank all 15 banks for their support and confidence in our Company. We feel very positive about our Company's prospects and we believe that the reduced commitments, the length of the covenant waiver period obtained along with our modern fleet and our quality time charter coverage will enable us to successfully navigate in a potentially challenging market environment over the next two years.""In addition, the contribution via an equity injection from the main shareholders represents a clear sign of strong support and commitment to the Company, especially since it is made at a time of great uncertainty. I, along with the rest of the members of the Board of Directors and the senior management team, remain dedicated in maintaining and improving the Company's leading position within the dry bulk industry as well as delivering long term shareholder value."Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Earnings Results, Conference Call and WebcastIn addition, the Company announced that it will release its results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2008 after the closing of the market on Wednesday, April 8, 2009.On the next day, Thursday, April 9, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. EDT, the company's management will host a conference call to discuss the results.
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EXM was up .22 and another .51 in after hours. This is the type of thing that frustrates me about the market. News and rumors from insiders to their buddies really put us at a disadvantage.Anyway, I guess this is good nows for the company and should pull up the entire sector tomorrow.
 
BassNBrew said:
ATHENS, GREECE--(MARKET WIRE)--Apr 1, 2009 -- Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (NYSE:EXM - News), an owner and operator of dry bulk carriers and a leading international provider of worldwide seaborne transportation services for dry bulk cargoes, announced today that it has entered into agreements to amend its credit facilities, agreed to an equity infusion by the Company's major shareholders and set the dates for the release of the fourth quarter and full year 2008 earnings results, conference call and webcast.Related QuotesSymbol Price Change EXM 4.74 +0.22 {"s" : "exm","k" : "c10,l10,p20,t10","o" : "","j" : ""} Credit Facilities AmendmentsThe Company announced that, as part of the amendments to its two credit facilities, it has secured all the appropriate covenant waivers in the Nordea Bank Syndicated Facility and the Credit Suisse Bilateral Facility, valid until the beginning of 2011.Additionally, under the terms of the amended Nordea Bank Syndicated Facility, the Company will also defer principal debt repayments of $150.5 million originally scheduled for 2009 and 2010 to the balloon payment at the end of the facility's term in 2016.During the waiver and deferral periods, the applicable credit facility margins will increase to 2.5% and 2.25%, for the Syndicated Facility and the Credit Suisse Facility, respectively.The Nordea Syndicated Facility and the Credit Suisse Bilateral Facility are the only two credit facilities that the Company has currently outstanding.More details on the terms of the credit facilities amendments will be provided during the Company's fourth quarter and year end 2008 earnings release and conference call.Equity InfusionAs part of the loan restructuring, the Company also announced an equity infusion of $45 million by entities affiliated with the Panayotides family, the Company's major shareholders. An aggregate of 25,714,285 Class A shares and 5,500,000 warrants, with an exercise price of $3.50 per warrant, are to be issued in total. The shares, the warrants and the shares issuable on exercise of the warrants will be subject to 12-month lock-ups from March 31, 2009. In this connection, the Company has the option to defer, again to the balloon payment in 2016, additional principal debt repayments in an amount of up to 100% of the equity contributed by the major shareholders during 2009 and 2010.The Chairman of the Board, Mr. Gabriel Panayotides, commented, "We are pleased to announce the successful restructuring of our loan facilities and would like to thank all 15 banks for their support and confidence in our Company. We feel very positive about our Company's prospects and we believe that the reduced commitments, the length of the covenant waiver period obtained along with our modern fleet and our quality time charter coverage will enable us to successfully navigate in a potentially challenging market environment over the next two years.""In addition, the contribution via an equity injection from the main shareholders represents a clear sign of strong support and commitment to the Company, especially since it is made at a time of great uncertainty. I, along with the rest of the members of the Board of Directors and the senior management team, remain dedicated in maintaining and improving the Company's leading position within the dry bulk industry as well as delivering long term shareholder value."Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Earnings Results, Conference Call and WebcastIn addition, the Company announced that it will release its results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2008 after the closing of the market on Wednesday, April 8, 2009.On the next day, Thursday, April 9, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. EDT, the company's management will host a conference call to discuss the results.
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EXM was up .22 and another .51 in after hours. This is the type of thing that frustrates me about the market. News and rumors from insiders to their buddies really put us at a disadvantage.Anyway, I guess this is good nows for the company and should pull up the entire sector tomorrow.
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This so pisses me off. I just keep missing these damn things by inches. I made money on EXM (got in at 4.28, but damn this was exactly the news I wanted to hear). earnings should come out soon. They will suck, but the stock is going higher based on this news.
 
David Dodds said:
This so pisses me off. I just keep missing these damn things by inches. I made money on EXM (got in at 4.28, but damn this was exactly the news I wanted to hear). earnings should come out soon. They will suck, but the stock is going higher based on this news.
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I don't think it's a bad thing for you. PRGN should follow along and this should set a trend for other companies in the same financial situation.
 
Having a huge pre-market here with DXO up big, PRGN better, FEED better, FREE better (most in the 8-12% range). The market is set to jump a bunch and the investors have just shrugged off the inventory report (what I expected to happen since prices jumped up a lot $35/barrell to $50+/barrel and it had no real effect on inventories). Going to lock in some profits on this whole thing today for sure. I am long overdue on a recap on where I am at and will do that at market close as well.

 
Buckna said:
Trying something out since I'm still learning here.Bought 1,000 EXM at 4.08. Sold 10 June calls with a strike of $5 for $0.834 after comission. Puts my cost basis at $3.246 protecting me from a 20% downside from today's price. If they end up in the money in June, I make 54% in 3 months. We'll see how it goes.
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You have to be LOVING THIS right about now.It is at 5.70 in the Pre-Market right now
 
Year to date Profit = $18,101

Latest Moves since last report:

Sold 1,000 SCO at a loss of 1,918

Sold 3,500 SCO at a loss of $7,491 (aargh...needed to wait just 2 more trading days)

Sold 4,000 PRGN at a profit of $988

Sold 5,000 EXM at a profit of $1238

Holding these positions:

20,000 FREE at 1.19

10,000 DXO at 2.65

3,000 PRGN @ 3.37

5,000 FEED @ 2.34

 
David Dodds said:
Buckna said:
Trying something out since I'm still learning here.Bought 1,000 EXM at 4.08. Sold 10 June calls with a strike of $5 for $0.834 after comission. Puts my cost basis at $3.246 protecting me from a 20% downside from today's price. If they end up in the money in June, I make 54% in 3 months. We'll see how it goes.
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You have to be LOVING THIS right about now.It is at 5.70 in the Pre-Market right now
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It's a nice win. I'm trying to figure out what to do now. Still a lot of time on these calls left, moved too quickly, too soon as the time premium hasn't really degraded yet. But for now, I'm smiling for today. :lmao:
 
David Dodds said:
Front-end oil just hit $52/barrel in pre-market trading. Now that's a rally. DXO up 14% right now
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This make ZERO sense. I heard some analyst on NPR last night say that confidence seems to be coming back and a lot of people think that everything is stabilizing. He added "I wash that was true but the numbers we see are saying just the opposite. The stock market has a long history of betting on bull markets & bear markets that never materialize."Maybe I'm just bitter I didn't add more at around $2.58. :lmao:
 
David Dodds said:
Year to date Profit = $18,101

Latest Moves since last report:

Sold 1,000 SCO at a loss of 1,918

Sold 3,500 SCO at a loss of $7,491 (aargh...needed to wait just 2 more trading days)

Sold 4,000 PRGN at a profit of $988

Sold 5,000 EXM at a profit of $1238

Holding these positions:

20,000 FREE at 1.19

10,000 DXO at 2.65

3,000 PRGN @ 3.37

5,000 FEED @ 2.34
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nice! :boatloads:

 
Sold 1000 DXO for a profit of $440

Sold 300 UCO for a profit of roughly $350

Hold 200 BBT acquired at $16.59

Hold 1000 PRGN acquired at $3.30

Hold 200 FAZ acquired at $24.75 (getting oVVned here)

 
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