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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

David Dodds said:
I am calling it now. PRGN will be above 4.50 by the time 2nd quarter earnings roll out at the end of June. I might just get 15,000 shares of this thing and hang on. They have locked in prices on 98% of their ships. BDI won't even impact them. They cut the dividend and now are raising capital. This companies balance sheet is going to look AWESOME by the time earnings come out. And I fully expect once they dilute with their 10 million shares, they will use some of this cash just to buy back their own stock (which they have authority to do).Also they are still paying out 5 cents quarterly dividends. That alone is about a 6% yield.
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What's probably being priced into the stock is the uncertainty their "locked-in" bids will hold. BDI absolutely still affects them, as some of their contracts could be renegotiated early, or companies might simply break their contracts, and Paragon possibly unable to recapture any/all losses.
 
stubby said:
David Dodds said:
I am calling it now. PRGN will be above 4.50 by the time 2nd quarter earnings roll out at the end of June. I might just get 15,000 shares of this thing and hang on. They have locked in prices on 98% of their ships. BDI won't even impact them. They cut the dividend and now are raising capital. This companies balance sheet is going to look AWESOME by the time earnings come out. And I fully expect once they dilute with their 10 million shares, they will use some of this cash just to buy back their own stock (which they have authority to do).Also they are still paying out 5 cents quarterly dividends. That alone is about a 6% yield.
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What's probably being priced into the stock is the uncertainty their "locked-in" bids will hold. BDI absolutely still affects them, as some of their contracts could be renegotiated early, or companies might simply break their contracts, and Paragon possibly unable to recapture any/all losses.
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I think it's pirates....Arrggghhhh!
 
analog_hiss said:
Mr. Pickles said:
FREE just sitting there like it's confused or something.

Let's go, already.
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Here's a chart of FREE, and I would like you to note the sideways trend (horizontal price movement that occurs when the forces of supply and demand are nearly equal) over the past few weeks. Some chartists believe that it signals a consolidation period before the price continues in the direction of the previous move; in this case up. Some traders also refer to it coiling before an upward spring.It's unnerving, but I figure I can be patient.
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I am being patient too. I've had limit orders in for the last couple of days to sell at $1.38, but there just isn't any movement. I'm contemplating just letting this puppy ride for a few months rather than time it.
 
BassNBrew said:
I feel kind of naked sitting mostly in cash.
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GPRE climbed 5% today. With low volume it is still a huge risk. I bought below $2 and sold above $3 a few weeks ago based on fundamentals, and jumped back in at 2.02 on the same. Now that I have been learning about charts and trying to apply this to fictional trades (via Fidelity), I am starting to get comfortable. I totally got FEED wrong earlier in this thread (I predicted a drop based on technicals, and the drop happened based on fear of swine flu), but I am still watching.Here's the GPRE chart. The black line is appraoching a crossover, but hasn't crossed yet...don't fall for the fake, remember the stock usually takes off a day or two after the crossover. RSI is higher than 30, but well below 70. Furthermore, the candles from the last few days of trading indicate indecision. I made a risky bet at 2.02 and I will follow and update IF I see a MACD crossover.

 
Anyone know how to go about finding a mutual fund that primarily holds dry shipping stocks?

 
Looks to me like we got suckered into jumping out of a bunch of stuff too early...Oil, Shippers and FEED all looking strong after a good day yesterday as well. Other than long term positions my only trade that I have left is 1000 of EXM @ 6.59. Sure wish I still had my Oil and FEED....will see if the Rally holds.

Those of you who got in on the PRGN are looking good in pre-mkt. 3.33-3.45 is the current bid-ask.

 
I saw that DRYS releases earnings after the close today. I would think all of the shippers will be in the spotlight today.

go PRGN!

 
I had a 10,000 buy in for FREE at the opening and it hit 1.33, but I did not get any shares. At $1.37 now.

I see Paragon finally moved. Am just going to hold it though as I think this thing is grossly under priced

 
eoMMan said:
BassNBrew said:
Anyone know how to go about finding a mutual fund that primarily holds dry shipping stocks?
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Are there really that many dry shipping stocks?I think you'd be better off just buying a few that you really like and managing it yourself.
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Yes I think so too. I still think my best approach to making money this year was when I had loaded up with EXM and SBLK cheap and just hold through the end of May. This sector has mostly been up for awhile now.
 
David Dodds said:
Most all my money frees up here in a few days. I think my strategy could be lock down on FREE, PRGN and SBLK for one last Dry Shipping push here into Summer.
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I'm willing to make a small wager that you don't have the patience to lock down these stocks (or any for that matter) and hold them into summer.
 
BR33ZE said:
David Dodds said:
Most all my money frees up here in a few days. I think my strategy could be lock down on FREE, PRGN and SBLK for one last Dry Shipping push here into Summer.
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I'm willing to make a small wager that you don't have the patience to lock down these stocks (or any for that matter) and hold them into summer.
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Even I know I would not be able to do this. But I think it would be a smart strategy.
 
DRYS popped today. Man that's nice.

I really need to get in on this action. What brokerage do you all use? I've been on Etrade for year, but the interface sucks and it takes forever to transfer funds to and from my bank account. Anyone have a better option that'll be cheap regardless of how much I load up/how many trades I make?

 
Otis said:
DRYS popped today. Man that's nice. I really need to get in on this action. What brokerage do you all use? I've been on Etrade for year, but the interface sucks and it takes forever to transfer funds to and from my bank account. Anyone have a better option that'll be cheap regardless of how much I load up/how many trades I make?
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If you have 25,000+ in various Wells Fargo holdings (bank, CD, brokerage), then you get 100 free trades through their PMA account. Each trade after that is $5.95. This is what I am using.
 
Catching things up here:

Year to Date Profit = $54,511

Last two days Realized Gains/Losses: +499

PRGN = -662

EXM = +32

DXO = +588

SCO = +103

FREE = +438

Holding these positions:

10,000 FREE @ 1.33

3,000 PRGN @ 3.20

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Tell me this dilution is not holding PRGN back:

Volume in 1.5 hours = 530,124 shares

Average DAILY volume = 490,000 shares

yet the stock is up just 3.36%

Compare to EXM:

Volume = 802,000 shares

Average daily volume = 1.9 million shares

stock is up 8.21%

I still believe PRGN is seriously undervalued here and will pop when this dilution ends (likely by the middle to end of May). I plan to continue buying in on dips. I will sell if it gets above $4.25 (my assessment as to what it should be right now)

 
Last edited by a moderator:
David Dodds said:
Tell me this dilution is not holding PRGN back:Volume in 1.5 hours = 530,124 sharesAverage DAILY volume = 490,000 sharesyet the stock is up just 3.36%Compare to EXM:Volume = 802,000 sharesAverage daily volume = 1.9 million sharesstock is up 8.21%I still believe PRGN is seriously undervalued here and will pop when this dilution ends (likely by the middle to end of May). I plan to continue buying in on dips. I will sell if it gets above $4.25 (my assessment as to what it should be right now)
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I already addressed one of the things holding them back.
 
David Dodds said:
stubby said:
I already addressed one of the things holding them back.
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yes contracts could get broken, but I don't see how that affects this quarters results which should reflect outstanding results
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Not everyone trading the stock is looking at it from a short-term perspective like you. Earnings aren't the only underlying component of a company's stock price. Perhaps the contract pricing I already mentioned, combined with the uncertainty that reducing the dividend payments will only cover its 2010 obligations, and the potential oversuppy in ships from ALL dry-bulk shippers, all lend basis to the stock price not jumping through the roof currently.
 
Been reading this thread for awhile now....

I don't know #### about the Stock Market but my step-dad works for CBI (Chicago Bridge & Iron)... My mom said sometime in February that

the stock was down to around $5 a share which i guess was very low. I had a small amount of extra money sitting in the bank so i opened a Scottrade account and bought $2000 worth at $5.38.

It was up to $11.35 yesterday....

This wasn't anything I bought just to make a quick profit, I planned on holding it for awhile. Would I be better off doubling my money now

and considering myself lucky? Or hold it for a few years???

I know it's not a lot of money, and i can afford to lose it, so it's not a big deal.

TIA

 
bought 3,000 FEED at 3.77. Now that I see it can go above $4.00 again, I feel this is pretty safe. Just looking for a quick turn here.

 
Sold my prgn earlier at 3.34 from 3.28. For a small gain

Then played FAZ for the 1st time. Man is that scary to watch realtime.

Bought @ 7.75 and sold @ 7.99. Just glad to get out alive on that crazy ride

 
playin4beer said:
Been reading this thread for awhile now....I don't know #### about the Stock Market but my step-dad works for CBI (Chicago Bridge & Iron)... My mom said sometime in February thatthe stock was down to around $5 a share which i guess was very low. I had a small amount of extra money sitting in the bank so i opened a Scottrade account and bought $2000 worth at $5.38.It was up to $11.35 yesterday....This wasn't anything I bought just to make a quick profit, I planned on holding it for awhile. Would I be better off doubling my money nowand considering myself lucky? Or hold it for a few years???I know it's not a lot of money, and i can afford to lose it, so it's not a big deal.TIA
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Don't know anything about the stock, but the typical answer you hear is "you never lose money selling for a profit."Only consideration between selling now and selling in a year is short-term taxes versus long-term taxes on your profit. Probably around a 10% difference.It might be wise for you to set an out price now. For instance, if it goes to 10 or 15 sell. You have to pick the numbers you like.
 
Battles said:
playin4beer said:
Been reading this thread for awhile now....I don't know #### about the Stock Market but my step-dad works for CBI (Chicago Bridge & Iron)... My mom said sometime in February thatthe stock was down to around $5 a share which i guess was very low. I had a small amount of extra money sitting in the bank so i opened a Scottrade account and bought $2000 worth at $5.38.It was up to $11.35 yesterday....This wasn't anything I bought just to make a quick profit, I planned on holding it for awhile. Would I be better off doubling my money nowand considering myself lucky? Or hold it for a few years???I know it's not a lot of money, and i can afford to lose it, so it's not a big deal.TIA
Click to expand...
Don't know anything about the stock, but the typical answer you hear is "you never lose money selling for a profit."Only consideration between selling now and selling in a year is short-term taxes versus long-term taxes on your profit. Probably around a 10% difference.It might be wise for you to set an out price now. For instance, if it goes to 10 or 15 sell. You have to pick the numbers you like.
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Thanks...Like I said, I know NOTHING...actually probably less than nothing. You blew my mind with the "short-term" / "long-term" tax talk. :X
 
playin4beer said:
Been reading this thread for awhile now....I don't know #### about the Stock Market but my step-dad works for CBI (Chicago Bridge & Iron)... My mom said sometime in February thatthe stock was down to around $5 a share which i guess was very low. I had a small amount of extra money sitting in the bank so i opened a Scottrade account and bought $2000 worth at $5.38.It was up to $11.35 yesterday....This wasn't anything I bought just to make a quick profit, I planned on holding it for awhile. Would I be better off doubling my money nowand considering myself lucky? Or hold it for a few years???I know it's not a lot of money, and i can afford to lose it, so it's not a big deal.TIA
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If you don't need the money immediately and there's no evidence that the stock is about to see the bottom drop out, set a trailing stop that you're comfortable with. If the stock continues to move up, your stop sell continues to increase as does your potential profit.If you'd be fussy if the stock drops below 10 while you're holding it, set a trailing stop at 1.35. If the stock rises to 14, you'll sell it for no less than 12.65 (assuming it hasn't dropped by 1.35 at any point in the interim -- also assuming no major after market moves, etc.).
 
My DXO triggered at 2,68 for 5,000 shares. I also have a buy for 10,000 FREE at 1.33 should it hit. Looks like I missed the timing on FEED as it went lower.

 
David Dodds said:
My DXO triggered at 2,68 for 5,000 shares. I also have a buy for 10,000 FREE at 1.33 should it hit. Looks like I missed the timing on FEED as it went lower.
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FREE up to $1.40 right after you bought. Went back to PRGN at $3.25. Just sold yesterday for a penny of two more, but I agree with everything you say about this stock.
 
BassNBrew said:
David Dodds said:
My DXO triggered at 2,68 for 5,000 shares. I also have a buy for 10,000 FREE at 1.33 should it hit. Looks like I missed the timing on FEED as it went lower.
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FREE up to $1.40 right after you bought. Went back to PRGN at $3.25. Just sold yesterday for a penny of two more, but I agree with everything you say about this stock.
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I saw DXO hit 2.67 here on my screen. I never got any of the 10,000 FREE I was hoping to buy. It was 1.33 on my screen, but it never triggered for me at all.
 
Has anyone used Scotttrade? $7 trades regardless of how much you have in account or how many trades you make. Seems like a good deal.

 
Otis said:
Has anyone used Scotttrade? $7 trades regardless of how much you have in account or how many trades you make. Seems like a good deal.
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I just signed up with them. It was recommended here. Havnt made first trade yet :rolleyes:
 
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