Cromedog
Footballguy
Wow...you are really going for it here.Out of CENX at 6.12 for a big loss...will look to re-enter lower too.
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
freakinback
Footballguy
I re-entered this one last. In at $1.31. Looks like it being played with by the MM. After market trading keeps knock this one down. I am hoping to get some of the upside.
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Right there with you Mose ... trying to unload my higher cost CENX (7.02 basis) but optimize my exit point ... GL ... thankfully this thing has legs today so far ...
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Mose
Footballguy
yea, I'm not really complaining about it.
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
OK - just tripped ... I dumped 400 CENX at 6.29 (loss of $318).Now sitting with a cost basis on my remaining 400 shares of CENX 5.82 ...yea, I'm not really complaining about it.
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
Out of CENX @ 6.27
Great move today. Huge volume, I don't want to screw with it. I'll take this gain and run with it.
Great move today. Huge volume, I don't want to screw with it. I'll take this gain and run with it.
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Mose
Footballguy
CENX just tripped for $6.19. So I'm totally out of CENX for a grand loss of....$1490.
but....since I started on the Dodd's train back in April, this is the first time I have sold for a loss on ANYTHING. I'm still plus around $10000 from my initial $8000 starting point. $8000 into $18000 in 2 and a half months ain't too shabby.
but....since I started on the Dodd's train back in April, this is the first time I have sold for a loss on ANYTHING. I'm still plus around $10000 from my initial $8000 starting point. $8000 into $18000 in 2 and a half months ain't too shabby.
Otis
Footballguy
Holy crap that's nice.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Jiggy,Whats your take on HUN at 5.70? I feel like this might be worth jumping into now.Out of CENX @ 6.27Great move today. Huge volume, I don't want to screw with it. I'll take this gain and run with it.
Chuck Cecil
Footballguy
I haven't brought anything to the table yet here but I wanted to get some thoughts on Medis Technologies Ltd.(NasdaqGM: MDTL). It seems like a good buy right now.
Mose
Footballguy
I don't like any stock that is under $2.00 a share. Inluding the KERX and HEB I own. I will never buy another that is that low.
Chuck Cecil
Footballguy
Just make sure the sack is filled with Wheatbacks Otis
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
Well, i think its a decent entry point. Not too much to the downside, I think the wild ride we saw yesterday was the stock essentially bottoming at 5.5ish and then a mass of stop losses triggered in these levels dropped it lower and very quickly. The company just got an injection of 660M to pay off debts, reaffirmed their Qdiv of 10c, likely will get their credit upgraded by S&P very soon. Its a stalwart company in a beaten up sector, case in point. The Huntsman family doesn't want to run the company anymore. They obviously want out to run the Huntsman Cancer Institute, and theres a lot of speculation that they ended the litigation early in order to facilitate a sale of the company. Lot of people were disillusioned about how much HUN could get out of the case, lots of people on the Yahoo board were throwing out 4B in cash. Huntsman expected 1B and got 660M + 1.1B in credit financing. In the mid 5's the stock is a good fundamental buy, but any takeover speculation is just icing on the case. I think the shorts and the traders are shaken out of this stock yesterday. If you're long @5.7 I think its a great investment, but it may need some time to really pay off. If you can stomach holding this at least till year's end, I think you'll end up with substantial gains.EDIT: I think the volatility returns next week.Jiggy,Whats your take on HUN at 5.70? I feel like this might be worth jumping into now.Out of CENX @ 6.27
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Mose
Footballguy
Back in March, HUN was in the $2.00 range. The lawsuit was about to happen which could have been huge for them. The price tripled up to the $5.50 range in anticipation. The settled out of court yesterday for a flat sum less then if they had fought it out in court possibly. Why do you think it will go up? I just heard about this stock yesterday though, so I might have zero idea of what is actually happening.Jiggy,Whats your take on HUN at 5.70? I feel like this might be worth jumping into now.Out of CENX @ 6.27
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Will there be any jump if HEB or CTIC are added to the Russell 3000?
KGB
Footballguy
Pretty sure heb already was
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
maybe I am looking in the wrong place, but i thought the new list wasnt announced until June 29. They are listed as a preliminary to be added, but it is not official. Here is the current list...http://www.russell.com/indexes/membership/...ip_Dropdown.asp
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Solid use of the OTIS FACTOR here.
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Otis
Footballguy
If you guys want we could just cut out the middle man and I could start sending you all checks.Solid use of the OTIS FACTOR here.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
If you guys want we could just cut out the middle man and I could start sending you all checks.Solid use of the OTIS FACTOR here.
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
Despite my bullish call at 14.62, I'm actually a little worried here. Its broken several support lines, most notably in the 14.0's and the next support thereafter is in the low 13's. Oil also facing bearish technicals with a major downside. I'm going to wait to double/triple down my positions, but if we dont close above 14 today, we could see some major downside. That said, this is a fantastic opportunity to load up post-injection season.
I was actually considering selling some July calls on this position as well. I think longterm Dodds is right yet again, but who knows what will happen in the short term this summer. If I sell the 16's @ $0.30, that should protect me from some downside shorterm and lower my cost basis. I'd miss out on a strong move back above $16 possibly, but who knows when a move up will happen. Where's the options guru in this thread at?
I'm completely baffled that anyone who has done some homework on HEB is pumping more money into it.
there's a reason there are no FDA approved drugs for CFS (no one knows what causes it or if it even exists) and it's about the 100th thing HEB has tried to get approval for.
also the head of this company is a complete quack who has been extremely shady in the past.
good luck, but a miracle is more likely what is going to be needed.
there's a reason there are no FDA approved drugs for CFS (no one knows what causes it or if it even exists) and it's about the 100th thing HEB has tried to get approval for.
also the head of this company is a complete quack who has been extremely shady in the past.
good luck, but a miracle is more likely what is going to be needed.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
"I'm not here to talk about the past; I'm here to talk about the future."- Big Mac
#@%&$!?
Footballguy
There are many drugs approved for gray area disorders: ADHD, sleeplessness, etc. CFS isn't far fetched from those examples.
David Dodds
Administrator
You are wrong on most every point here, but not sure I am going to be able to nor would want to convince you. This is a high risk adventure. I have stated that many times.1. CFS does exist, but you are correct they are not exactly sure what causes it. You do realize that the FDA has already given HEB permission to use Ampligen on clinical cases of people that have CFS?2. Actually Dr. Carter might be somewhat right that this thing helps a lot of things. It looks like the perfect Adjuvant, based on Japanese tests so this could be the secret ingredient regarding all vaccines going forward. But despite Carter making claims that it helps in a lot of cases, they have not went after FDA approval for CFS.3. The head of the company is an extremely smart scientist. Not sure what you mean by a quack and about being shady in the past. No one in this company (not even Carter) has sold ANY of their shares of stock the last 5 years. This includes this year when this thing popped above $4.50. No sales. If this team thought they had syrup water, wouldn't someone sell there? Just for giggles, look at the insider trading for the Street.com. Lots and lots of sales and no adds.4. I could go on and on why I think Carter and his team have something, but will just leave with these points:- The guy they brought on this week (Dickie) quit his normal job to take a low base salary and the ability to buy lots of shares at $2.81. He is a known Mergers and Acquisition guy.- The FDA has not asked for any additional information regarding Ampligen's application. Does this sound like this would be the case if a quack submitted this and it had absolutely NO CHANCE at approval? - Drugs that get this deep inside the system are granted approval eventually 80% of the time. With successful trials and no toxology issues, doesn't this seem like it has a decent chance for approval. Nothing else treats CFS, and this one has data from a lot of studies that says it helps. Most of this data was presented way before now and has not been questioned.- There is SIGNIFICANT short action on this. Based on my calculations, if this does get approved it is a recoiled spring waiting to unload. Short covering could push this past $15 on approval.So for me, this is really a risk/reward thing. Many people feel like you based on the Street.com articles. If you believe those guys are legit in their analysis then clearly stay away. If approved, this thing is worth at least $12. If Japan uses Ampligen as an adjuvant for H1N1 and they get FDA approval, this company will be bought out as it represents the future of ALL Vaccines. If somehow the FDA says get lost (no approval and never come back) and Japan also says the same (despite tests showing Ampligen boosts effectiveness 100X allowing them to cut their vaccines a lot), then yes we have something maybe worth 25 cents. Again make sure everyone understands. This is not a slam dunk approval. Moderated has pointed to some possible problems and their can be others. I am a gambler at heart and this feels like one of those high risk/high reward scenarios I love. If I knew positively this would be approved, this thing would not be selling for $2.00 right now. Good luck to all here.
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David Dodds
Administrator
One of the few lessons I have learned here is that the correct time to buy PRGN is within the last 15-20 minutes each day. I have no idea why, but it always seems to trail off and then pop up in the after or pre-markets. Actually this is true of all the shippers. I will be buying here shortly as well. It's one of the few stocks I really feel confident about right now.
I am surprised many of you are selling CENX at big losses (as I'm sitting here on a loss too).
To me, everything looks the same as it looked a few weeks ago. Earnings come out next month, and I think that this company for a change will come close to, or fingers crossed, beat their estimates. I think this thing gets up over 8 within the next month or two. I'm pleasantly surprised to see a nice pop today, and hope the rally can continue for awhile.
I also like PRGN's prospects, as everything I have read seems to show this stock is well positioned to continue to make money through the next few years. DD, I appreciated your post earlier, and it had a lot of good information in it. I've been through a ton of shipping stocks in the past, and one thing I will mention is it's usually difficult to valuate their fleet, so I don't take those calculations to strongly, as I prefer to look at cash flows, costs, contracts, etc... With shippers, they can say what they want about the value of a ship, but you still have to find a buyer for it. That's why its more difficult to use ships as collateral with banks, and new issues are often sold to raise capital. There are always bigger and better out there (and I'll fully admit I'm much more familiar with oil shippers than dry shippers), and it's very difficult to put an actual dollar value on a depreciating asset. That being said, so long as free revenues keep streaming in, I can live with the market share dilution issue with PRGN. Another position I like and will continue to hold.
To me, everything looks the same as it looked a few weeks ago. Earnings come out next month, and I think that this company for a change will come close to, or fingers crossed, beat their estimates. I think this thing gets up over 8 within the next month or two. I'm pleasantly surprised to see a nice pop today, and hope the rally can continue for awhile.
I also like PRGN's prospects, as everything I have read seems to show this stock is well positioned to continue to make money through the next few years. DD, I appreciated your post earlier, and it had a lot of good information in it. I've been through a ton of shipping stocks in the past, and one thing I will mention is it's usually difficult to valuate their fleet, so I don't take those calculations to strongly, as I prefer to look at cash flows, costs, contracts, etc... With shippers, they can say what they want about the value of a ship, but you still have to find a buyer for it. That's why its more difficult to use ships as collateral with banks, and new issues are often sold to raise capital. There are always bigger and better out there (and I'll fully admit I'm much more familiar with oil shippers than dry shippers), and it's very difficult to put an actual dollar value on a depreciating asset. That being said, so long as free revenues keep streaming in, I can live with the market share dilution issue with PRGN. Another position I like and will continue to hold.
Not sure how anything i said was wrong, it was opinion based on research i've done. It seems we have differing interpretations, but i'm definitely not "wrong" in what i said.1)There is debate in the medical community on whether CFS is physical or mental. It is a diagnosis given when they can't find anything concretely wrong with someone who is sore and tired.2)He has tried to get Ampligen approved for so many things over the years it's laughable, that is a fact.3)Dr Carter may be a smart scientist, but he has claimed some bizarre things like lacing cigarettes with his "wonder" drug could help all kinds of problems. Because someone is intelligent doesn't mean they aren't borderline nuts. And HEB was investigated in the past by the SEC for claiming they had a large outside investment when they didn't.4)There is no way this has an 80% chance of approval or it wouldn't be at $2. I agree if somehow this gets approved it would go to at least $10, and that's pretty widely accepted. What the current PPS shows is about a 20% chance of approval, and IMO the current PPS is high due to it being a popular cheap trade which brings in volume and keeps some people in long who got burned earlier and are praying for the miracle.I agree with most of your analysis on stocks you've picked in the past, i just think in many ways your being stubborn here and trying to make a hero play.It is just pocket change to you, so i'm not saying it's a horrible gamble, but i do think a lot will follow in who losing a few g's might affect and many are making this drug seem like a 50/50 bet when it's a lot longer shot then that.
David Dodds
Administrator
I am torn on CENX. They are bleeding money because of the price of aluminum. We all know aluminum won't stay this low, but I got spooked at how hard and fast this thing dropped. It went from $8.00 to $5.30 in DAYS. But yes I can see this stock at $10 soon too. I will likely get back in, but still squeamish in this market. CENX seems like a great play (at the end of a day when the market implodes). Much like FEED it responds well when the market is up.
or :X 
Jiggyonthehut
Footballguy
oof I really don't know anymore. Its crunch time, last major support is 5.37. So much volume with no news it makes the fundamental play short-term almost irrelevant. We've crossed the support several times, but have yet to close below it. If we do, we're looking at downside in the 4's. Yikes. I'm looking to double/triple down my existing 6.17 shares but I think I'm going to wait till the close. So much manipulation but so much upside.Well, i think its a decent entry point. Not too much to the downside, I think the wild ride we saw yesterday was the stock essentially bottoming at 5.5ish and then a mass of stop losses triggered in these levels dropped it lower and very quickly. The company just got an injection of 660M to pay off debts, reaffirmed their Qdiv of 10c, likely will get their credit upgraded by S&P very soon. Its a stalwart company in a beaten up sector, case in point. The Huntsman family doesn't want to run the company anymore. They obviously want out to run the Huntsman Cancer Institute, and theres a lot of speculation that they ended the litigation early in order to facilitate a sale of the company. Lot of people were disillusioned about how much HUN could get out of the case, lots of people on the Yahoo board were throwing out 4B in cash. Huntsman expected 1B and got 660M + 1.1B in credit financing. In the mid 5's the stock is a good fundamental buy, but any takeover speculation is just icing on the case. I think the shorts and the traders are shaken out of this stock yesterday. If you're long @5.7 I think its a great investment, but it may need some time to really pay off. If you can stomach holding this at least till year's end, I think you'll end up with substantial gains.EDIT: I think the volatility returns next week.Jiggy,Whats your take on HUN at 5.70? I feel like this might be worth jumping into now.Out of CENX @ 6.27Great move today. Huge volume, I don't want to screw with it. I'll take this gain and run with it.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
for a stock that has moved so much, the relative stalemate at about 1.99 for heb is very strange.
David Dodds
Administrator
got 2200 of my 5000 order on FEED at 5.54
Chuck Cecil
Footballguy
Okay so today maybe the worst feeling I have ever had with the market. On 06/18 I brought MTMC at $1.67. Trying to move more to cash because of some other positions(HEB, PRGN) I am in and wanted to get free up some cash. So I added a limit order to sell all at $1.75 yesterday. The rest is history.................
David Dodds
Administrator
So someone that absolutely hates this stock sees the chances as:20% chance to be $10.0080% chance to be $0.50Expected Value = $2.40. This is what I am getting at here. Many others have an even higher expected value here based on differing percentages. It's a gamble, but at $2.00 a share I think one with a great risk/reward. Approval, Japan News, partnership deal, etc all could send this stock way higher. Not sure the Street can get this much lower here as too many people are willing to buy below $2.00
David Dodds
Administrator
and of course PRGN decides to surge at the close today. I am waiting to add here. I think I will see $3.65 sometime this week.
Darn it how do I get a picture to show.
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KGB
Footballguy
Get ready for your stomach to feel better. It was a bunk press release. It went up 200%. They stopped trading on it. Its now worth a buck. You lucked out!!!!
KGB
Footballguy
Sold my AXLA in after hours.
The cool thing is that it closed at $2.54, someone bought all my shares for $2.79.
this is the stock i was talking about yesterday when i was asking why someone would pay more every day in the afterhours when the stock is cheaper in the day. EVERYDAY.
Well maybe someone knows something i dont but Ive been sitting in the red for a bit on that one, so nice to get out.
The cool thing is that it closed at $2.54, someone bought all my shares for $2.79.
this is the stock i was talking about yesterday when i was asking why someone would pay more every day in the afterhours when the stock is cheaper in the day. EVERYDAY.
Well maybe someone knows something i dont but Ive been sitting in the red for a bit on that one, so nice to get out.
