This is LJ
Footballguy
cool. you think these orders are funds buying in advance of a Russell addition?
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
analog_hiss
Footballguy
I was wondering the same thing.Is there a way those millions of shares could be broken up into the large blocks we are starting to see? Were there really millions of shares up for purchase? I just don't see a 7 million share via nasdaq.com.
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The Ref
Footballguy
I'd be willing to find out.....
David Dodds
Administrator
Just got back in. Damn why did I sell the other 3,000 shares of HEB today. Loving my 10K position though as it stands at $2.84 right now...MOATLOADS
David Dodds
Administrator
a swing and a miss.....
The Ref
Footballguy
Finaly was able to catch up on this topic after some time away.
Seems like the usd is hanging in there and has been trading between 81 and 79. Oddly enough cenx and ung have taken it on the chin a little bit with no real news save our pals at the world bank. Things are bad in case you have not heard yet.
Nice to be back in time for an HEB run. How long has it been since the delay? I would hope we will hear something soon.
I think the most underdiscused news of the week was the paragon anoucement. I'm biased, but I think that is a huge anoucement. I think there is very little chance that earnings will be anything less then very good, and with the long term deals in place the results will continue for the long term. $5 a share might be low come the first week of august so long as the atm offer is over or close to it.
Seems like the usd is hanging in there and has been trading between 81 and 79. Oddly enough cenx and ung have taken it on the chin a little bit with no real news save our pals at the world bank. Things are bad in case you have not heard yet.
Nice to be back in time for an HEB run. How long has it been since the delay? I would hope we will hear something soon.
I think the most underdiscused news of the week was the paragon anoucement. I'm biased, but I think that is a huge anoucement. I think there is very little chance that earnings will be anything less then very good, and with the long term deals in place the results will continue for the long term. $5 a share might be low come the first week of august so long as the atm offer is over or close to it.
David Dodds
Administrator
Ref,I think it's a consensus position that the PRGN news was HUGE yet the stock has done nothing. And all of us believe like you do that the stock will hit $5.00+ as we approach August (pre or post earnings). Most of us have already started to acquire shares. I hope to have 30,000 shares at close to these prices within a few weeks. Just looking to pick my spots as I don't see the stock popping up until we get to the middle of July.
Card Trader
Footballguy
These orders on HEB are interesting, every little while one goes through for 818k, and 103k.
KGB
Footballguy
I'm pretty sure it has to do with the russle index funds having to buy their shares.
David Dodds
Administrator
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
i would think we would be seeing these orders with other russell stocks too, but I am not seeing them. Has any announcement been made yet?ETA nm i see them other places. Just not in a few of the stocks. I happen to own those,lol.
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The Ref
Footballguy
David,I do agree that the consensus was very positive, but I figured it would have been worth a few more pages. In short, the anouncement made it "illegal" for prgn to not have a huge qtr. You can't go out to the street with this sort of thing and come in below expectations. The only thing I disagree with you is on the timing of when this goes pop. When prgn says the atm offer is over is when I expect for the stock to climb. And it seems like 5 is the number for most of us, but with the tone of the anouncement 5 might be just the start.Guess we shall see.
Ripley
Footballguy
did i miss something? what news is this?
None_More_Black
Footballguy
If you are talking about the long term charters it is important to look at the numbers. SBLK has a similar announcement about 6 weeks ago but the stock went down because some people did not like the rates they locked in. Without looking at the figures, I am going to assume PRGN has to be making some concessions like SBLK did. (still a good idea to lock in contracts) I think it is still a good value. In related news, SBLK announced a 5 cent quarterly dividend yesterday. They, like PRGN, had to ask their banks for the go ahead and got approval. I think this is a positive sign. I expect DSX to announce a dividend in the near future so I am look to pick some up in the very near future.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I would just like to say thank you to all of the people in this thread. I have learned a ton and I am up about 15% in less than a month (although I realize a decent portion of that is due to being lucky on STSI). Even if HEB drops to a penny I will be in the green.
David Dodds
Administrator
Year to Date Profit = $138,005
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses:
Sold 3,000 HEB - Profit = $636
Sold 2,200 FEED - Profit = $736
Holding:
10,000 HEB @ 2.16 - This is starting to feel very nice. If I can get close to the $2.85 price come Monday, I will unload some of this profit.
400 CHK @ 22.77 - I am stubborn on this. I like natural gas going forward
1,000 UNG @ 14.08 - Big rally today. Getting closer to selling here.
20,000 CNB @ 0.67 - My aggressive add at 0.60 today turned this into a positive.
3,000 COIN @ 1.24 - I like what these guys are doing, but this might be a dog. If I sell HEB, I may double down just to create an exit strategy.
8,000 PRGN @ 3.61 - No real opportunities to add cheaply here so am waiting this out.
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses:
Sold 3,000 HEB - Profit = $636
Sold 2,200 FEED - Profit = $736
Holding:
10,000 HEB @ 2.16 - This is starting to feel very nice. If I can get close to the $2.85 price come Monday, I will unload some of this profit.
400 CHK @ 22.77 - I am stubborn on this. I like natural gas going forward
1,000 UNG @ 14.08 - Big rally today. Getting closer to selling here.
20,000 CNB @ 0.67 - My aggressive add at 0.60 today turned this into a positive.
3,000 COIN @ 1.24 - I like what these guys are doing, but this might be a dog. If I sell HEB, I may double down just to create an exit strategy.
8,000 PRGN @ 3.61 - No real opportunities to add cheaply here so am waiting this out.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I own CTIC. It was just added to the Russell 3000 index and had some nice gains. They also have a drug(pixatrone) that they requested priority review on. If granted it could be approved 4th qtr of 09. I dont think this is early enough in the game to be what you are talking about, but I do like this stock. I realize it is a gamble, just like HEB, but I feel that as the ramp up to the approval date occurs it is very likely the stock should have very nice gains to bank on exit before the decision or a home run if it is approved if you want to gamble.
optionmaven
Footballguy
I've been liking LVS for a while now. Option volumes and ratio's looking really positive. I thought their recent floor would be 8 dollars. It went below that and I've been acquiring more sept. and december calls. I thought mgm's floor would be 7 dollars, where they diluted at. I'm not as bullish on them as i once was (huge debt), but i think they are a decent play as well. (they should enjoy the ride up with the whole sector later this yr)
David Dodds
Administrator
PRGN and EGLE shippers have both been beaten way back from their yearly highs. UNG is way off historical numbers. CNB is on the verge of collapse and it's way off it's historical numbers.
The Ref
Footballguy
"We" must be #3 on the list behind the CEO, but apparently there is a new #1 owner of Paragon.
http://www.steelheadpartners.com/
Guess they are a value fund out of Seattle that now owns over 5.7M shares. I have never heard of them, but figured I would pass this along.
http://www.steelheadpartners.com/
Guess they are a value fund out of Seattle that now owns over 5.7M shares. I have never heard of them, but figured I would pass this along.
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
Anyone invested in BDSI or SPPI? Both seem poised for upcoming FDA approvals, though this may already be baked into the PPS to some extent. I'm used to buying stocks in the 1-3 range but I may jump in on one of these. Both are trading in the high 6's. I only have 2 grand of free cash so I think I may go with about 300 BDSI - am interested in any opinions on BDSI or SPPI.
XOMA also looks attractive at .71. Then again, I thought it looked good at .92. Huge drop on Friday being attribiuted to Russell delisting - may be poised for a nice bounce back
XOMA also looks attractive at .71. Then again, I thought it looked good at .92. Huge drop on Friday being attribiuted to Russell delisting - may be poised for a nice bounce back
Chuck Cecil
Footballguy
A Beneficial Owner for BDSI just sold 110,614 shares for $723,515.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/1052...E&cm_ite=NA
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/1052...E&cm_ite=NA
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
Do you think that's a bad sign?
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Looks like it was a planned sale by an institutional investor. No clue how to read that.
Sand
Footballguy
It is hard to tell. There are lots of reasons to sell on the open market. Only one reason to buy on the open market.
We all have them. I closed out my position at 2.70, so lost a decent chunk.In the end i think this little rise will make me money as i'll be shorting at the open on Monday while this baby tanks to the low 2's or high 1's.
Das Boot
Footballguy
Where are you finding shares to short?I've heard that none are available.
Where in the world did you hear that? there are people shorting 100k+'s worth of shares. I'm only doing 5k blocks.
David Dodds
Administrator
From that link an LLC sold (not an individual). I would not read a ton into it.
Das Boot
Footballguy
I'm not disagreeing and I haven't tried to short it, that's what I've been reading on msg boards.I'll check tomorrow at scottrade out of curiosity to see if I could short if I wanted to, i.e. if shares are available for shorting. Given how many people expect a negative FDA decision, it made sense to me to think that shares available for shorting were hard to come by.How are you determining that large chunks are being shorted?I thought open short interest is only reported monthly.Where in the world did you hear that? there are people shorting 100k+'s worth of shares. I'm only doing 5k blocks.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Dodds I saw your post about HEB on yahoo.
Do you really think HEB will continue to rise on monday?
Do you really think HEB will continue to rise on monday?
NajehHejan
Footballguy
ADXS closed Friday at .105. It has a very promising pipeline and looks to be a nice long term play, but I also think repeat short term profit potential is very real. Since the run up to .21 in late May and then crash to .06 (orphan drug status denial) on 6/4, the stock has settled in nicely since 6/4/09 with the following highs/lows/closes:
PRICES
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
26-Jun-09 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.11 212,800 0.11
25-Jun-09 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.12 291,600 0.12
24-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.11 762,100 0.11
23-Jun-09 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 1,126,600 0.11
22-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 1,029,100 0.10
19-Jun-09 0.12 0.13 0.10 0.11 1,428,400 0.11
18-Jun-09 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 694,700 0.11
17-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 553,700 0.12
16-Jun-09 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.13 1,246,500 0.13
15-Jun-09 0.11 0.15 0.11 0.13 6,089,300 0.13
12-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 777,800 0.10
11-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.11 542,800 0.11
10-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.11 716,000 0.11
9-Jun-09 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.12 1,119,700 0.12
8-Jun-09 0.09 0.14 0.09 0.12 1,842,600 0.12
5-Jun-09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.09 835,100 0.09
4-Jun-09 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 1,358,800 0.10
Nearly every day there was potential to buy and sell for 20% profit (.10, ,12) or 18% profit (.11, .13). See how the volume really dried up the last two days as it appears the day traders and pumpers have left for greener pastures. I'm going to look to buy Monday at .11, sell at .13, and then rinse and repeat as often as possible. The low since 6/4 has only been .09 so the downside seems minimal. Of course, good news could also provide great upside.
PRICES
Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
26-Jun-09 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.11 212,800 0.11
25-Jun-09 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.12 291,600 0.12
24-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.11 762,100 0.11
23-Jun-09 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 1,126,600 0.11
22-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 1,029,100 0.10
19-Jun-09 0.12 0.13 0.10 0.11 1,428,400 0.11
18-Jun-09 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 694,700 0.11
17-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 553,700 0.12
16-Jun-09 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.13 1,246,500 0.13
15-Jun-09 0.11 0.15 0.11 0.13 6,089,300 0.13
12-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 777,800 0.10
11-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.11 542,800 0.11
10-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.11 716,000 0.11
9-Jun-09 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.12 1,119,700 0.12
8-Jun-09 0.09 0.14 0.09 0.12 1,842,600 0.12
5-Jun-09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.09 835,100 0.09
4-Jun-09 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 1,358,800 0.10
Nearly every day there was potential to buy and sell for 20% profit (.10, ,12) or 18% profit (.11, .13). See how the volume really dried up the last two days as it appears the day traders and pumpers have left for greener pastures. I'm going to look to buy Monday at .11, sell at .13, and then rinse and repeat as often as possible. The low since 6/4 has only been .09 so the downside seems minimal. Of course, good news could also provide great upside.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Not really sure, but I do think the money argument is a sound one for thinking this goes higher. Dilution won't start until after the July 28th vote so there are 100 M shares out there. Russel people just gobbled up a bunch of them. Insiders are holding (and added a bunch at $2.84). Short Interest is above 10M shares. Something has to give. My guess is this gaps up at the open and goes higher. This assuming the overall market opens higher. It does feel like we are going to get some FDA news this week. Not sure why, but that's the general feeling I am having here with this one. Maybe it will be to just ask for more info from HEB, but something has to break else the FDA starts to look really bad here.I will likely start selling above $3.00 even though I am starting to really believe this could be a homerun. I will definitely carry some shares into the decision though.
The Ref
Footballguy
Overseas are up at the bell ~ 1%
David Dodds
Administrator
Single-handedly trying to raise HEBs price via the Yahoo boards...LOL. Although it seems pointless, it does seem like good posts would be read by a lot of people. Anyway kind of had some fun while constantly hammering on the same themes. I have no idea where HEB is going. But as a holder of 10,000 shares I would love to see it go up.
David Dodds
Administrator
I just sent a note to Steelhead Partners. Hopefully I don't get a restraining order from this...LOL
To whom it may concern
I am a big fan of Paragon Shipping (PRGN) myself and believe this stock is poised to breakout among the Dry Shippers soon. I already made a small fortune (for me) with this company with the run up to earnings this past report and fully expect to do the same here before the second quarter numbers get released around August 9th. I expect to have at least 30,000 shares of the stock before earnings and friends and colleagues that follow my stock thread at Footballguys.com (the website I own) will likely have another 75,000 shares as well.
We like the management team in place at PRGN and the fact that they smartly did not add ships when prices were the highest. They have shown they know how to lock in earnings ahead of schedule and are poised for solid earnings for many quarters in the future. Their book value is ridiculously low and once some of their debt is restructured, their P/E ratio also is an anomaly even within this beaten down sector. This stock is both a short-term buy and a long-term hold in my opinion. At it's current book value and cash on hand, I believe it's also a possible take over target although I like the thought their management team should be taking over the other shipper's better. But I know you guys know all those things as you just took a HUGE position in this company.
I am writing to you to better understand the SEC filing. After dilution, I have PRGN at approximately 47 Million shares of stock. Is it my understanding that Steelhead now owns approximately 20% of those shares? And did you buy those directly from PRGN or via the Market? Any insight you care to share regarding why you like this company going forward?
Hoping you can take some time to answer this email. And even if you can not, welcome aboard. I am a huge fan of this company and will be naming my house Paragon Estates based on how much money they have made for me this year. And if 2nd quarter earnings go as I expect them, I fully expect to be adding a moat to my house purchase soon.
Feel free to send investment information about your company and it's value investing strategies to:
(I listed my name and address here, but removed from here)
Thanks for listening,
David Dodds
Paragon Investor
Owner, Footballguys.com
To whom it may concern
I am a big fan of Paragon Shipping (PRGN) myself and believe this stock is poised to breakout among the Dry Shippers soon. I already made a small fortune (for me) with this company with the run up to earnings this past report and fully expect to do the same here before the second quarter numbers get released around August 9th. I expect to have at least 30,000 shares of the stock before earnings and friends and colleagues that follow my stock thread at Footballguys.com (the website I own) will likely have another 75,000 shares as well.
We like the management team in place at PRGN and the fact that they smartly did not add ships when prices were the highest. They have shown they know how to lock in earnings ahead of schedule and are poised for solid earnings for many quarters in the future. Their book value is ridiculously low and once some of their debt is restructured, their P/E ratio also is an anomaly even within this beaten down sector. This stock is both a short-term buy and a long-term hold in my opinion. At it's current book value and cash on hand, I believe it's also a possible take over target although I like the thought their management team should be taking over the other shipper's better. But I know you guys know all those things as you just took a HUGE position in this company.
I am writing to you to better understand the SEC filing. After dilution, I have PRGN at approximately 47 Million shares of stock. Is it my understanding that Steelhead now owns approximately 20% of those shares? And did you buy those directly from PRGN or via the Market? Any insight you care to share regarding why you like this company going forward?
Hoping you can take some time to answer this email. And even if you can not, welcome aboard. I am a huge fan of this company and will be naming my house Paragon Estates based on how much money they have made for me this year. And if 2nd quarter earnings go as I expect them, I fully expect to be adding a moat to my house purchase soon.
Feel free to send investment information about your company and it's value investing strategies to:
(I listed my name and address here, but removed from here)
Thanks for listening,
David Dodds
Paragon Investor
Owner, Footballguys.com
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Das Boot
Footballguy
Thanks, I'm really looking forward to the chance that they reply to this - could be some interesting insights into PRGN.
David Dodds
Administrator
That was my thoughts too. Based on their website, this is a braniac group of value investors that have all sorts of models that lead them to underpriced under-appreciated (by Wallstreet) companies. And personally I fully agree with them regarding PRGN. They are among the best managed Dry Shippers yet get no love from Wallstreet at all. So I am very curious what they see. I think they will respond to me because I asked them to also send over their investment info. This is one of those companies that really could be a 3-4X gainer over the next 2 years. Obviously they need to stop diluting shares so massively, but I think they know that as well.Anyway I will post any response they give me. Worst case is I hear nothing. I do think this purchase changes the float immensely (these shares are effectively out of the market as I see this group buying and holding this company for a bit). I am curious though if they bought these shares via the market or directly from PRGN.Buying PRGN and holding until August feels like the closest thing I have ever seen to a sure thing here. Not sure I will be able to dilly dally around this too much longer. I am starting to think we could start seeing gaps at the opens starting very soon.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Just a head's up that people should be looking at dumping FEED on Monday. More dilution coming:
http://finance.aol.com/company/agfeed-indu...pdf/sec-filings
http://finance.aol.com/company/agfeed-indu...pdf/sec-filings
SpurrierisisGod
Footballguy
I've been following this thread for a few weeks now and the information you guys are giving out has been quite helpful. I have opened an account with the intentions of learning the ropes. I do not intend to trade on margin. Just a cash account to learn with probably no more than 500. Hopefully you guys can answer a few questions.
It is my understanding that you can not trade more than 3 times (buy/sell = 1) in 5 days or you HAVE to have a margin account with at least 25K equity. Is this correct? Any ways around this or do I just focus on doing 3 a week?
It is my understanding that you can not trade more than 3 times (buy/sell = 1) in 5 days or you HAVE to have a margin account with at least 25K equity. Is this correct? Any ways around this or do I just focus on doing 3 a week?
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
That is not correct. Trade away. At 500 dollars though you wont really be able to make more than that anyway. Your funds are tied up for 3 days from the buy order.
SpurrierisisGod
Footballguy
Not really looking to hit a homerun, but not really looking to lose either. Just learn the ins and outs of the site until more cash is available. What does that rule apply to or am I just mis-reading something?Seemed silly to me that they would restrict a cash account like that.
Buy 125 shares of PRGN. You'll have $600 by Aug.
David Dodds
Administrator
I am getting close to this move too. I think Steelhead buying such a large position in PRGN is going to change the dynamic with PRGN and make that stock a lot more volatile to the upside.
Cromedog
Footballguy
Dang it...FEED was just starting to move back...thought headed back to 7.50.
David Dodds
Administrator
FEED up in the Pre-Market. I still would urge anyone still with shares to sell here. It's possible they need the financing for some big news which could launch things I suppose, but I hate dilution as it usually leads to lower prices in the short-term.
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