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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (5 Viewers)

Whenever Steelhead decides to liquidate it's position on PRGN, that is going to casue it to drop quickly, right? So we should exit before they do.

 
Just a head's up that people should be looking at dumping FEED on Monday. More dilution coming:

http://finance.aol.com/company/agfeed-indu...pdf/sec-filings
FEED up in the Pre-Market. I still would urge anyone still with shares to sell here. It's possible they need the financing for some big news which could launch things I suppose, but I hate dilution as it usually leads to lower prices in the short-term.
Out at 6.18...for a loss of about 500. I hope you are right David. Regardless, though, I appreciate your feedback.
 
Have no idea what to make of FEED action. Up 6% at the open. I'm going to sell some just to deleverage myself, because I''m sitting with about 60% of my portfolio in it, but I may keep half my shares.

 
Just a head's up that people should be looking at dumping FEED on Monday. More dilution coming:

http://finance.aol.com/company/agfeed-indu...pdf/sec-filings
FEED up in the Pre-Market. I still would urge anyone still with shares to sell here. It's possible they need the financing for some big news which could launch things I suppose, but I hate dilution as it usually leads to lower prices in the short-term.
Out at 6.18...for a loss of about 500. I hope you are right David. Regardless, though, I appreciate your feedback.
Out at 6.25. Will probably roll it into PRGN on a dip. Similar upside with less downside.
 
Whenever Steelhead decides to liquidate it's position on PRGN, that is going to casue it to drop quickly, right? So we should exit before they do.
I think they are like Buffet and into companies for the long haul. I believe they will have to do Insider filing now though so we will see these moves via SEC reports. They still have not responded to my email, but my gut tells me that having them as a big investor is a very good thing.
 
Just a head's up that people should be looking at dumping FEED on Monday. More dilution coming:

http://finance.aol.com/company/agfeed-indu...pdf/sec-filings
FEED up in the Pre-Market. I still would urge anyone still with shares to sell here. It's possible they need the financing for some big news which could launch things I suppose, but I hate dilution as it usually leads to lower prices in the short-term.
I'm going to continue to hold my shares. I still like this Ag/China play long-term. I can't keep up with you guys on all of the dips and blips, so I'm just going to ride it out.
 
Just a head's up that people should be looking at dumping FEED on Monday. More dilution coming:

http://finance.aol.com/company/agfeed-indu...pdf/sec-filings
FEED up in the Pre-Market. I still would urge anyone still with shares to sell here. It's possible they need the financing for some big news which could launch things I suppose, but I hate dilution as it usually leads to lower prices in the short-term.
Out at 6.18...for a loss of about 500. I hope you are right David. Regardless, though, I appreciate your feedback.
Out at 6.24 for a 7c/share loss.
 
NajehHejan said:
ADXS closed Friday at .105. It has a very promising pipeline and looks to be a nice long term play, but I also think repeat short term profit potential is very real. Since the run up to .21 in late May and then crash to .06 (orphan drug status denial) on 6/4, the stock has settled in nicely since 6/4/09 with the following highs/lows/closes:PRICES Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close* 26-Jun-09 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.11 212,800 0.11 25-Jun-09 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.12 291,600 0.12 24-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.11 762,100 0.11 23-Jun-09 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 1,126,600 0.11 22-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 1,029,100 0.10 19-Jun-09 0.12 0.13 0.10 0.11 1,428,400 0.11 18-Jun-09 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 694,700 0.11 17-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 553,700 0.12 16-Jun-09 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.13 1,246,500 0.13 15-Jun-09 0.11 0.15 0.11 0.13 6,089,300 0.13 12-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 777,800 0.10 11-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.11 542,800 0.11 10-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.11 716,000 0.11 9-Jun-09 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.12 1,119,700 0.12 8-Jun-09 0.09 0.14 0.09 0.12 1,842,600 0.12 5-Jun-09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.09 835,100 0.09 4-Jun-09 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 1,358,800 0.10 Nearly every day there was potential to buy and sell for 20% profit (.10, ,12) or 18% profit (.11, .13). See how the volume really dried up the last two days as it appears the day traders and pumpers have left for greener pastures. I'm going to look to buy Monday at .11, sell at .13, and then rinse and repeat as often as possible. The low since 6/4 has only been .09 so the downside seems minimal. Of course, good news could also provide great upside.
Bought 20,000 ADXS @ $.108
 
NajehHejan said:
ADXS closed Friday at .105. It has a very promising pipeline and looks to be a nice long term play, but I also think repeat short term profit potential is very real. Since the run up to .21 in late May and then crash to .06 (orphan drug status denial) on 6/4, the stock has settled in nicely since 6/4/09 with the following highs/lows/closes:PRICES Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close* 26-Jun-09 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.11 212,800 0.11 25-Jun-09 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.12 291,600 0.12 24-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.11 0.11 762,100 0.11 23-Jun-09 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 1,126,600 0.11 22-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 1,029,100 0.10 19-Jun-09 0.12 0.13 0.10 0.11 1,428,400 0.11 18-Jun-09 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.11 694,700 0.11 17-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 553,700 0.12 16-Jun-09 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.13 1,246,500 0.13 15-Jun-09 0.11 0.15 0.11 0.13 6,089,300 0.13 12-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.10 777,800 0.10 11-Jun-09 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.11 542,800 0.11 10-Jun-09 0.13 0.13 0.10 0.11 716,000 0.11 9-Jun-09 0.14 0.14 0.11 0.12 1,119,700 0.12 8-Jun-09 0.09 0.14 0.09 0.12 1,842,600 0.12 5-Jun-09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.09 835,100 0.09 4-Jun-09 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 1,358,800 0.10 Nearly every day there was potential to buy and sell for 20% profit (.10, ,12) or 18% profit (.11, .13). See how the volume really dried up the last two days as it appears the day traders and pumpers have left for greener pastures. I'm going to look to buy Monday at .11, sell at .13, and then rinse and repeat as often as possible. The low since 6/4 has only been .09 so the downside seems minimal. Of course, good news could also provide great upside.
Bought 20,000 ADXS @ $.108
Wow, volume is only 50k shares right now. That is crazy.
 
I expect to have at least 30,000 shares of the stock before earnings and friends and colleagues that follow my stock thread at Footballguys.com (the website I own) will likely have another 75,000 shares as well.
At the 1Q announcement time we had "documented" 30K shares. And as part of the 30K shares I missed all of moderated holdings, you "only" had 10K, and I only had 2.5K shares. If your going to hold 30K, I plan on building to 8K, 75K shares will be conservative by the time 2Q announcement is made.We shall see.Love the e-mail. The fact that they are "on board" (pun intended) here is a very good thing. Not because the stock has to go up, but because it's unlikely to go down much from here. In a way this tells me the bottom is in unless something goes bump. Best news we can get is the ATM offering concluding.
 
I expect to have at least 30,000 shares of the stock before earnings and friends and colleagues that follow my stock thread at Footballguys.com (the website I own) will likely have another 75,000 shares as well.
At the 1Q announcement time we had "documented" 30K shares. And as part of the 30K shares I missed all of moderated holdings, you "only" had 10K, and I only had 2.5K shares. If your going to hold 30K, I plan on building to 8K, 75K shares will be conservative by the time 2Q announcement is made.We shall see.Love the e-mail. The fact that they are "on board" (pun intended) here is a very good thing. Not because the stock has to go up, but because it's unlikely to go down much from here. In a way this tells me the bottom is in unless something goes bump. Best news we can get is the ATM offering concluding.
I have 5k right now. I am planning to build that to 15k or more (depends if there are any dips and how deep).
 
Crazy volume on CTIC this morning. I added shares when it was down to 1.68. I hope this thing keeps rising especially considering it is now my largest position somehow.

 
Not sure what to think about Natural Gas right now, but things like this make me nervous:

Link

Crisis threatens future gas supply: IEA

Mon Jun 29, 2009 8:18am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Global gas demand is likely to fall for the first time in half a century this year, threatening investments in new production and a serious supply crunch from 2013, the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

"We have moved from a tight supply and demand balance with extremely high gas prices to an easing one with plummeting prices," Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA said on the day the energy adviser to 27 industrialized countries also cut sharply its mid-term forecast for oil demand.

"Both markets face enormous uncertainty surrounding the timing, pace and extent of any economic rebound, which affects all prognoses for oil and gas market fundamentals over the next five years."

After a 1 percent increase in 2008, gas demand in the OECD group of countries fell by 4 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and is expected to further decline through the year.

"For the first time in 50 years, the world will witness a drop in global gas demand," the IEA said in its Natural Gas Market Review 2009 published on Monday.

The future of United States gas output remains one of the major uncertainties in global gas markets, it said.

Falling sales volumes and low prices have slashed producers' cash flows, while regulatory uncertainty and the credit crunch will likely further jeopardize new projects and undermine long-term energy security when economies recover, the IEA warned.

"Financing problems are likely to bedevil all new construction projects in 2009 and even into 2010," it said, adding that unless several new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects were approved over the next 18 months there would be a severe lack of new production capacity after 2012.

Although very few new LNG projects have been sanctioned in the last few years, the next three years will see production capacity grow from 240 billion cubic meters a year at the end of 2008 to at least 370 billion cubic meters at a time of weak demand for gas, the IEA said.

"Thus, 2009 and 2010 will test the flexibility and resilience of the global LNG market," it said.

The IEA said oil-based gas prices in Europe were likely to decline through 2009 to an average of around $7-8 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), slashing profits for major producers like Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) which sold gas at about $12 per mmbtu in 2008.

"The world's largest producer, Russia, faces considerable challenges, both financial and technical, already leading to project delays," the IEA said.

POWER DEMAND

Gas demand from the power generation has slumped as a result of the economic crisis and is likely to be weak throughout 2009.

But investment and financing uncertainty hindering new gas production facilities could increase gas demand in the longer term as utilities opt to build more relatively inexpensive, quick to build and clean-burning gas-fired plants, further pressuring fuel supplies in the next decade.

"Greater deployment of renewables over the medium term may also enhance the role of gas to balance intermittent sources such as wind," the IEA said.

Increasing dependency on gas, particularly in Europe, is seen as a threat to energy security.

The IEA said on Monday Europe's gas supplies from Russia are under near constant threat of disruption.
And this: LinkWondering if it's time to bail on UNG/CHK for a bit.

 
Not sure what to think about Natural Gas right now, but things like this make me nervous:

Link

Crisis threatens future gas supply: IEA

Mon Jun 29, 2009 8:18am EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Global gas demand is likely to fall for the first time in half a century this year, threatening investments in new production and a serious supply crunch from 2013, the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

"We have moved from a tight supply and demand balance with extremely high gas prices to an easing one with plummeting prices," Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA said on the day the energy adviser to 27 industrialized countries also cut sharply its mid-term forecast for oil demand.

"Both markets face enormous uncertainty surrounding the timing, pace and extent of any economic rebound, which affects all prognoses for oil and gas market fundamentals over the next five years."

After a 1 percent increase in 2008, gas demand in the OECD group of countries fell by 4 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and is expected to further decline through the year.

"For the first time in 50 years, the world will witness a drop in global gas demand," the IEA said in its Natural Gas Market Review 2009 published on Monday.

The future of United States gas output remains one of the major uncertainties in global gas markets, it said.

Falling sales volumes and low prices have slashed producers' cash flows, while regulatory uncertainty and the credit crunch will likely further jeopardize new projects and undermine long-term energy security when economies recover, the IEA warned.

"Financing problems are likely to bedevil all new construction projects in 2009 and even into 2010," it said, adding that unless several new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects were approved over the next 18 months there would be a severe lack of new production capacity after 2012.

Although very few new LNG projects have been sanctioned in the last few years, the next three years will see production capacity grow from 240 billion cubic meters a year at the end of 2008 to at least 370 billion cubic meters at a time of weak demand for gas, the IEA said.

"Thus, 2009 and 2010 will test the flexibility and resilience of the global LNG market," it said.

The IEA said oil-based gas prices in Europe were likely to decline through 2009 to an average of around $7-8 per million British thermal units (mmbtu), slashing profits for major producers like Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom (GAZP.MM: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) which sold gas at about $12 per mmbtu in 2008.

"The world's largest producer, Russia, faces considerable challenges, both financial and technical, already leading to project delays," the IEA said.

POWER DEMAND

Gas demand from the power generation has slumped as a result of the economic crisis and is likely to be weak throughout 2009.

But investment and financing uncertainty hindering new gas production facilities could increase gas demand in the longer term as utilities opt to build more relatively inexpensive, quick to build and clean-burning gas-fired plants, further pressuring fuel supplies in the next decade.

"Greater deployment of renewables over the medium term may also enhance the role of gas to balance intermittent sources such as wind," the IEA said.

Increasing dependency on gas, particularly in Europe, is seen as a threat to energy security.

The IEA said on Monday Europe's gas supplies from Russia are under near constant threat of disruption.
And this: LinkWondering if it's time to bail on UNG/CHK for a bit.
make sure you let us know the minute you sell.TIA

 
For those like myself looking to add PRGN on "the dips" ... what kind of limits are you targeting?

I've got some buy orders in for 3.76, but am skeptical we see that price again, and am tempted to add shares at the 3.80-3.85 level.

Maybe just need to get a down day on the NASDAQ, but the perceived momentum behind PRGN is making it harder for me to think that we "dip" much further below current levels.

 
I'm holding very few positions at this point and half of them are shorting the market through july options. It is so hard not biting on some names i like. BAIDU at 273. CME was under 300 earlier.
I checked my pants. I seem to be missing my *****. Bidu at 301, Cme at 321. Only about 50 clicks of love in a week. I suck!!
 
I am trying to figure this out too. I know I will be adding most of my shares this week though. 3.80 seems pretty reasonable if you can get that

 
Only 3,300 out of the 4,725 shares of FEED I wanted to sell filled at the price I liked. Will update if the rest fills sometime today.

I am still holding 6,000 shares in my taxable account longterm. I believe in this company, and think the stock will be much higher a year from now so I will hold onto these for now. I think the dilution will be accretive to earnings longterm even if a dilution causes some short term downside.

 
I am absolutely :X about my CHK options. Talk about abuse. I think this is six days straight in the red, with today being the most brutal of all.

:lmao:

The stock market absolutely, positively hates me with a fiery passion.
:thumbdown: I feel your pain. Nigerian rebels bomb a huge pipeline and oil drops. :lmao:
There's not really a link between markets and news stories in that way. Now, when you have a big news story that removes uncertainty, that can have an effect. But people don't go "a pipeline was bombed, I better buy oil".
Oil jumps above $70 on Nigerian platform attack :wall: :wall: :wall:

 
come on and get back to $2.80, HEB, so I can sell you and buy more PRGN.
Yeah that's where I am at. I am watching HEB/PRGN pairs. It's holding at 2.70 for HEB and 3.87 for PRGN ($1.17). If the spread gets below $1.10 I am doing the switch. I also have a 5,000 buy in for PRGN at 3.85.
 
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I got 5,000 PRGN at 3.85 too. Still feels like it could go a little lower, but I plan to keep adding each day until I am very strong here heading into earnings.

 
Out of IFON @ $1.69 - gain of 11.85. Was too slow on Friday and missed out on the $1.90's. Going to try and rebuy in at a lower price point.

 
Insider selling is sending bearish signals, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. In its Weekly Liquidity Review, the Bay Area research shop writes that it remains “fully bearish (100% short) on U.S. equities,” citing the macroeconomic climate, the gauges of demand and supply indicators including selling by corporate insiders. TrimTabs writes:

The best-informed market participants—the top insiders who run U.S. public companies—are signaling they believe stock prices are topping out. Based on filings of Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, insiders have sold $2.9 billion in June, 9.7 times more than the $300 million they have bought. Insider selling this month is the highest since November 2008.

Particularly worrisome is the persistent weakness of insider buying. On the past 60 days, insiders bought only $1.0 billion, the lowest level since November 2004.

As TrimTabs writes, “If the economy is starting to recover, then why are insiders buying so few shares?” That seems to be a question investors may want to consider.
TrimTabs: Insider Selling Signals Stocks Topping OutFAZ<hi?

 
Doubled my position of HUN @ 5.09 for an average cost of 5.63. I know I was bullish in the high 5's and I still am. Morning star just doubled their valuation over the weekend to $8 and even the ultraconservative S&P has a valuation of 6$ EOY and they should upgrade their debt rating sometime soon. I'm gonna hold until this bad boy hits green or until there is a takeover (which, at this point, seems ambiguous).

 
I got 5,000 PRGN at 3.85 too. Still feels like it could go a little lower, but I plan to keep adding each day until I am very strong here heading into earnings.
David any concerns with the dilution and earnings? Uninformed analysts my be calling for a bigger earnings per share number then is now possible.(similar to SBLK's earnings last quarter with dilution) There revenue might be down as well as they renegotiated some charters at a lower rate this quarter.(nothing major) They might also take a bigger depreciation expense then they have in the past. I think PRGN is a good value but if earnings are misinterpreted it could get beat up.
 
I got 5,000 PRGN at 3.85 too. Still feels like it could go a little lower, but I plan to keep adding each day until I am very strong here heading into earnings.
David any concerns with the dilution and earnings? Uninformed analysts my be calling for a bigger earnings per share number then is now possible.(similar to SBLK's earnings last quarter with dilution) There revenue might be down as well as they renegotiated some charters at a lower rate this quarter.(nothing major) They might also take a bigger depreciation expense then they have in the past. I think PRGN is a good value but if earnings are misinterpreted it could get beat up.
I don't see how it goes lower at all. Yes a lot of misinformation about this exists right now because of the significant dilution. But regardless of actual earnings, I expect this to run the week of earnings. The prudent move will likely be to sell some before earnings and some after.I just put in another 5,000 buy at 3.80 if it triggers
 
Got my 5,000 shares at 3.80, but it looks like PRGN is going lower. 2,800 being sold at 3.80 and another 15,233 at 3.81 at level 2 quotes. I feel like I am committing robbery here.

 
I could be wrong here, but the last sales block currently at 3.79 feels like the last of the 10 million dilution shares. I only say that because it popped up as a huge block and keeps moving downward to make sure they sell. When he get that announcement, I think this stock pops up at least 10 cents. It's possible PRGN gets below 3.70 before starting it's run up, but I don't want to miss the pop. I am happy to be getting in now.

Things I like better now than a week ago:

- Big stake by Steelhead Hedge Fund. That puts these guys on the map

- They were able to dilute 30 Million shares quickly.

- Going to have a HUGE cash position to significantly change their balance sheet for the better.

- Locked down more future charters at great pricing

- BDI appears to be stabilizing in the 3700 range which is outstanding

This sets up everything for an outstanding conference call in my opinion. This company will not have any significant dry docking costs until the 4th quarter so it's very smooth sailing going forward here. Remember this company made record profits last quarter. Their earnings will be stellar again and now with a loot better balance sheet. If this thing trades at 4-5X earnings, we have all hit the motherload.

 
Everyone buying PRGN here, I definitely urge patience. I am expecting the majority of this run up to happen between August 1st and whenever earnings are (was August 9th last year). This thing could stay relatively flat until then (or even lose money). But I will be shocked if we don't see HUGE movement as we approach the earnings date. I think a lot of people are waiting for the news that dilution is over and then they will start watching this thing again. I think we are close to movement. And that movement could be swift and without notice.

 
Some more food for thought on PRGN. The dividend will again be 5 cents. At a share price of 3.80 that alone is 1.3% in just over a month. I am sure I might be blinded, but I see no downside at these levels. I don't see PRGN trading at 3.50 for example. In fact at this current price, they should be in play just to grab their ships and cash on hand. I also feel there could be significant news for PRGN brewing. The Steelhead partnership might be part of something a lot bigger here. JP Morgan wants in this space and it would not shock me at all to see them partner with the well run PRGN. This sector has been beaten down too long. The BDI has recovered. Come next year if the BDI moves up from these levels, these shipping companies are going to be generating huge revenues going forward. If you have patience, you probably could double (or possibly triple your money) on this stock holding for 15 months.

 
This is the situation I dream about (all speculation):

JP Morgan agrees to take a large equity stake in PRGN shipping. For a percentage of the company, JP Morgan rewrites all of the debt and pushes the liability forward 12 months. They also create an equity line of $150M to PRGN. PRGN gets active in the resale ship market and purchases 9 additional used ships at a cost of approx $25-30M each. Each of these ships generates approximately $7-8M in revenue a year when fully chartered. They stagger the purchases taking 3 ships each of the first 3 quarters in 2010. With BDI high and rising in 2010, PRGN locks down great rates for the new vessels. And overnight PRGN has transformed itself from a bit role to the company to fear in this sector. JP Morgan (as a bank) is able to float the money easily and as PRGNs shares get above $5, institutional investors pile onboard. Their management team continues to earn high marks and their P/E returns to the 5-8 level (consistent to where DSX is now) pushing the stock through the roof.

 
I'm going to make the jump into PRGN, I've been following this thread waaaay to long not to step up. One question, how do you figure out the date you must purchase by to take advantage of the dividend? I could see this trading sideways for another couple of weeks, but would like to make sure I take advantage of that.

 
I'm going to make the jump into PRGN, I've been following this thread waaaay to long not to step up. One question, how do you figure out the date you must purchase by to take advantage of the dividend? I could see this trading sideways for another couple of weeks, but would like to make sure I take advantage of that.
There is a dividend date. It's a long ways off still (and after earnings I believe).
 
In for a bundle of PRGN at 3.81.
With that, I'm out of PRGN now :unsure:
Even OTIS can't mess with this one. The second PRGN announced the 2nd dilution, I was thinking wow this is going to set things up for a HUGE gain around the 2nd quarter earnings. We will shake out some more people that give up on this stock in the next few weeks, but the smart money is locking down here. We will start gapping up on most days in July I think. Conservatively I will be shocked if this stock does not see $4.75 - $5.00 by August.If I can just get the miracle HEB to get approval here soon, then I will have an even bigger position here soon.
 
I have a buy in for 10,000 more shares of CNB at 0.65 (but the price does not want to budge off the 0.66). This one might be riskier than HEB (if that's possible)...LOL

 

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