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On my Fidelity account, I can make "hypothetical" trades, and since jumping into this thread, I have made a few based upon some stocks mentioned...which I did with IFON when you posted your purchase.I wanted to buy, but with the RSI so high, I just couldn't do it...however, I can't believe the jump in PPS over the past few weeks with such a high RSI.Is there anything going on with this company that I am missing?Currently $1.96
Ah I was wondering when you'd come in to tell us how you shorted it today and were making boatloads. Hoping you are shorting the day it gets approved <_<
As my rehabilitated friend Micky Vick might say: "I have no dog in this fight"...however it is my opinion that even if you believe the odds of FDA approval to be 10%...the risk shorting HEB is far far greater than the reward.There are so many other ways to make $ without incurring a portfolio buster. Why do it?
To show all of us "dummies" how smart he is.
i only short this stock during regular trading hours. Rarely do fda approval announcements happen during that time.
Rick Flair couldn't have pulled off a promo better then this.I'm very likely in for another 1800 shares tomorrow to build my position to 5,600 shares. This is as "all in" a position as I will ever care to be.
nobody has any thoughts on this or any news?The stock market continues to cinfuse the heck out of me.
You have said this more than once now, but can you back it up with proof over the last FDA approvals. ie how many were halted during the day? And won't the big win occur if this gets disapproved? I mean if FDA says this is snake oil that's the mega score right? If I was as sure as you were here I would not be spending money buying and selling every day. I would sit on the short position until I got the huge score.Here is where I think your risk/reward scenario is crazy:- This stock hit $4.50 already this year and NO INSIDERS sold their shares. In fact they have not sold their shares at anytime over the last 5 years. The most recent adds were 280K shares at $2.84 (a higher price than you are shorting it). - The new VP was signed on with a low base pay and the ability to buy lots of options at $2.81 (a higher price than you are shorting it).So the Insiders definitely believe they can get a better price of the stock. Forget about FDA approval, whether this is snake oil, etc for a minute and ask yourself do you really know with 90% certainty these guys (that know their company better than anyone) won't get the price higher? I agree with Siffoin that the Risk far outweighs the little gains you could be making here.I am invested in this not for a cure for CFS, but because it has already shown great promise as an adjuvant for H1N5/bird flu (improving results as much as 100X). It's not a big stretch to see this being used in the vaccines for Swine flu (H1N1) and if you believe the press clippings human trials are already underway. Again, feel free to invest in whatever floats your boat. We could easily be holding snake oil. My point is this team fully thinks they have something. Or at a minimum believes they can get the stock up higher through PR, etc. FDA apporoval, any announced deal with Japan, China, Australia for the flu, any deal with a major pharmacy company, etc send this thing into orbit really fast. Most of the people holding, held through $1.50 a week ago. I don't think they are selling at any price. I think most of the downswing today was the same reason it went up on Friday (the Russell Index). It went up because that fund added a zillion shares. Then people took the profit from those. But many, many people are entrenched until they hear real news. And until you actually show me that you really have researched the last 20 FDA approvals and that they were all announced after-hours, I think your shorting strategy is beyond foolish here at a minimum.
Yes I agree I sound like a shill here. Maybe it's because they have made me good money already, but to me this is one of those gift-wrapped scenarios. Outside of a situation where it has been shown where they cooked their books, I love their balance sheet too much to not want in. and they are so damn under-valued based on the money they create and the ships they have it's ridiculous. Their PE at the full dilution is less than 3. They are making money (actually a lot every quarter). The piece to this puzzle that muddies everything is all the ship orders on the books at other shipping companies. But DRYS showed you the blueprint. They are going to pay money for those deals to evaporate. Just like you wouldn't pay for a $800K house now that is only worth $450K, these ships are likely going to mostly be phantom ships. And to keep settling these wounds, these rival companies have to keep diluting , etc. After this last dilution, this company will have about 100M in CASH on hand. They only owe $350M or so now. If they used all of that to pay down their debt they then owe roughly $250M. This company netted a profit of $19.2M in earnings for the quarter (before one-time writeoffs, etc). Assuming that is even 17M a quarter, they seem positioned to handle any upcoming storm better than anyone. I believe they will also likely do another offering or two and get most of the remaining $250M wiped out in a few years. Then it's just a giant cash cow where they own their ships completely. But in the short term, they won't need to (nor will they) dilute more shares. They have what they need (cash on hand) and can restructure the debt in many creative ways with those dollars in their possession. In an interview with the CEO when the BDI was below 2,000, he stated that PRGN could be profitable in the future as long as BDI stayed above 1800-2000. I know for a fact that most of the rest of these shippers would bleed to death at a long-term BDI of 2,000 or below. EXM, DRYS, TBSI all bled at these prices. PRGN turned in their best results ever at those levels. These guys get it. They were locking down longer term charters when DRYS and EXM were getting fat on the super high spot rates. And now that the game has flipped, they are positioned for the long haul. This last dilution should eliminate all debt waivers starting in the 3rd quarter. This helps them immensely regarding expansion, etc as the banks won't be able to lean on them and have them do dumb things (like a second dilution that they just did). This company is built to last. And in a sector where consolidations seem inevitable, these guys continue to build and structure this company for lasting success.
This
I meant that as a compliment. You have strong convictions on this. I happen to agree with them. In fact, I can't recall anyone in here who is short PRGN. My dream scenario.HEB announces an approval this week and shares soar to $12 each - sell "free" shares.Take HEB $$ and add to PRGN to 7200 shares - hold through earnings.Sell PRGN at $5.50 Buy into UNGHold UNG till winter.
LOLKeeeeeeeeeeRock!With that, I'm out of PRGN now
In @ $13.95. Will hold until winter.
I jumped on it for technical reasons. The company is a seller of cellphones in latin america and had a dismal 2008. The uptrend started in May when the company announced their most recent quarterly results well above expectations as they were able to get back to turning a profit despite decreasing sales numbers.On my Fidelity account, I can make "hypothetical" trades, and since jumping into this thread, I have made a few based upon some stocks mentioned...which I did with IFON when you posted your purchase.I wanted to buy, but with the RSI so high, I just couldn't do it...however, I can't believe the jump in PPS over the past few weeks with such a high RSI.Is there anything going on with this company that I am missing?Currently $1.96
Probably the best strategy. I'm still holding what I accumulated at 14.15.
and another 1000 at 3.63
Not sure if this was mentioned yet but, i thought it was funny - Where do they send the worst investor scammer ever.......Possibly Otisville
Happy to have been able to get out of FEED yesterday and funnel into PRGN at today's level.
Interesting article. I closed out my July 14 puts I had written on UNG this morning for modest gains. I still have one each of July 12, July 13, and August 11 I'm holding. I think longer term UNG goes up but short term we seem to be under a good bit of pressure.
Interesting...you have a daily time frame but only goes back just a few days. I like to expand to see as much time as possible. It's a ThinkorSwim chart via Prophet, correct? Very very cool...I've never even explored that as I trade my own indicator on Esignal.Does the support line go back to the Nov low? And peg the March low? Cause that would fit.
[Capt Kirk] OOOOTISSSS!!! [/Capt Kirk]With that, I'm out of PRGN now
It's creepy how consistent he is. Sorry Otis.
There is no where to go and no shares that want to sell. I am watching the Level II screen and right now here are the buys lined up:2341 at 3.62
DUDE!You want to set up a situation where you close a position where you'll either Make $.01 or LOSE $.99?Don't you see the insanity in such a proposition?If you don't think the position can win...take a loss. Don't habituate this type of mindset.
I bought it a long time ago, and I'm sick of it trading at such low levels. I think it bounces back up to where it almost hit yesterday, but probably nothing more. I had hoped to make a profit, but now I just want to get out from under it and get my money back.I don't like the mindset, but really that's not what this question is about. I'm simply having trouble setting 2 bounds on my sell order: an upper to make profit, and a lower to minimize loss.
maybe he just wants to win decent from where it is right now? 5.91 to 6.25 is a decent rise. but i will agree, it sounds weird.
