David Dodds
Administrator
I have never bought options, but seriously these are at 5 cents?
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/options2...;qm_symbol=PRGN
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/options2...;qm_symbol=PRGN
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
bought 2,000 KERX at 0.89
Otis
Footballguy
They're at the $5 strike and expire soon. They're near worthless unless the stock suddenly runs.
Mark Davis
Footballguy
Which contract? Looks like the July 2.5 puts and the July 5 calls are around that. Makes sense as the stock would have to get below 2.50 or above 5 by July 17 to have any value at all.
This is LJ
Footballguy
Hey is there anywhere I can find real time order info- for free?
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
I was lucky enough to get in yesterday in at $9.20. Within a week it should hit $10 again after the dividend.PSEC has grown its dividend for almost 20 quarters in a row at a 10% clip. I'm going to hold onto this for a month at the least. They've also crossed their 50 & 200 DMA's while screaming value at their current P/B and PEG.
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NYG Endzone
Footballguy
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David Dodds
Administrator
These are the August 22 calls which should be right around earnings release. Price is now a dime, but I don't think they are worthless.
Mark Davis
Footballguy
That's about right. $.10 is the midpoint on the Aug 2.5 put and $.125 is the midpoint on the Aug 5 call on my screen. It would take a pretty large run on either side over the next 7 weeks to put either in play. You're essentially talking about a 40% move on today's price just to get to the break even point. If you figure your commission is roughly $.03/share for the options and $.15/share for the purchase/sale then that makes it be $5.18 for a break even on the calls or $2.32 on the puts. So to make anything at all you have to move beyond those points to the upside or downside. Over such a relatively short window that seems highly unlikely.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Wow, nice time to get in, 9% bump in a day, plus the dividend.I made the plunge at $9.99, 500 shares.
siffoin
Footballguy
Better play is to buy the Sept trading $.20 x $.30 and bid $.25. But honestly...as a rule of thumb...never buy options on a stock priced less than $5. If you are of the mindset PRGN will be above $3.70 by Aug 22...then write the $5.00 put for $1.30. If PRGN trades above $5 on opex...then you've collected $1.30 per share...sweet. If it trades lower than $5 but higher than $3.70 you make $. You lose if it is below $3.70...as you'll be committed to purchase stock for $5.
This is LJ
Footballguy
Inititated position in JNJ @ 56.18.
Also, anyone doubling/getting into UNG? Sitting near historical lows.
Also, anyone doubling/getting into UNG? Sitting near historical lows.
David Dodds
Administrator
added 1,000 CENX at 5.80
David Dodds
Administrator
I am investing into Natural Gas through FCG. This has the benefit of not getting killed by the Contango
This is LJ
Footballguy
Got out of UNG @ 13.15 because it hit resistance and bounced despite high volume. I think it'll stay in this range for a good while. Took a beating and I'm relieved to get out. Not gonna chase Nat Gas until we see one scrap of bullish news. Now hearing that La wells are yielding more using more horizontal drilling to the tune of 4x supply yields. Could flood the market with available supply.
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
CNB survived day 1 AO*
*After Otis
*After Otis
Otis
Footballguy
God I hate my life.Edited to add: not only did it survive, but it's gained over 10% since I bought it. This thing is the prehistoric roach or crocodile of the stock world. Unkillable.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Year to Date Profit = $140,157
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses: +2,152
sold 4,000 HEB - Profit = $2,000 - 24
sold 20,000 PRGN - Profit = $200 -24
Holding:
8,000 HEB @ 2.20 - I would take $2.70 again here as I am getting tired of this one. I am going to treat this like a daytrading venue going forward, holding about 2,000 for approval at all times.
400 CHK @ 22.77 - I am stubborn on this. I like natural gas going forward
1,000 UNG @ 14.08 - Missed multiple opportunities here. Will wait for a rebound, but will play FCG for Natural Gas going forward
30,000 CNB @ 0.63 - I think this will be a big winner at some point. I doubt the government let's this bank fail.
3,000 COIN @ 1.24 - Aargh should have sold when I had my chance.
8,000 PRGN @ 3.69 - Sold off my position as a defensive move with the market tanking. Looking to get back in soon
1,000 CENX @ 5.80 - Just going to hold this here. It's extremely volatile, but I think it could catapult much higher
2,000 KERX @ 0.89 - Love this price. Seems like an easy wait and sell at a high point.
3,680 FREE @ 2.13 - The other Dry Shipper I love at these reduced prices. Their earnings will be stellar again too.
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses: +2,152
sold 4,000 HEB - Profit = $2,000 - 24
sold 20,000 PRGN - Profit = $200 -24
Holding:
8,000 HEB @ 2.20 - I would take $2.70 again here as I am getting tired of this one. I am going to treat this like a daytrading venue going forward, holding about 2,000 for approval at all times.
400 CHK @ 22.77 - I am stubborn on this. I like natural gas going forward
1,000 UNG @ 14.08 - Missed multiple opportunities here. Will wait for a rebound, but will play FCG for Natural Gas going forward
30,000 CNB @ 0.63 - I think this will be a big winner at some point. I doubt the government let's this bank fail.
3,000 COIN @ 1.24 - Aargh should have sold when I had my chance.
8,000 PRGN @ 3.69 - Sold off my position as a defensive move with the market tanking. Looking to get back in soon
1,000 CENX @ 5.80 - Just going to hold this here. It's extremely volatile, but I think it could catapult much higher
2,000 KERX @ 0.89 - Love this price. Seems like an easy wait and sell at a high point.
3,680 FREE @ 2.13 - The other Dry Shipper I love at these reduced prices. Their earnings will be stellar again too.
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Sand
Footballguy
I don't care about the blabber, but these guys have dumped almost all their exposure to stocks. They nailed it out of the park in '08 and I wouldn't be surprised if Q3 is mildly ugly.Thinking about dumping some of my momo stocks. AAPL (40% gain right now) is at the top of the list.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I dont even really like what I am reading about this stock. But I figured Dodds bought this thing at .84 I bought at .58 added at .5689 and added more at .5589. I figured even if Dodds is wrong on this stock by 15% from his initial hunch, I still make good money. I like those odds.
Otis
Footballguy
DoddsOdds
Otis
Footballguy
Ok, so the more people I talk to and the more I think about it, the more I am starting to think it may be time to short the whole effing market for a couple months. The triple shorts may start feasting. This market could turn on us and could turn on us in a bad way. I don't think it's the time to be long, not just yet anyway. Unemployment is still increasing, production is still down, confidence is spotty, and we are on the verge of potentially another banking/mortgage/commercial real estate crisis. I've been buying into the bull run we've had (and I know folks in here have done well with it), but this head and shoulders could well complete here and confirm that we're headed quite a ways downwards before we enter a true bull market. I'm starting to think the smart money could be shorting the whole damn thing and waiting for another S&P bottom before turning long.
Thoughts?
This is LJ
Footballguy
Definately some concern on my end. But I still think theres a couple of plays out there, especially on a sector basis. With earnings season coming up, there's a chance for some sectors to show some strength. Most notably tech and bio/pharma. But I'm fairly bearish with the rest of them, industrials especially, retail a close second. The market has already factored in 10% unemployment and likely continued declines in same-store sales for the retailers, so I'm actually on a wait and see basis with them. Tremendous opportunity there, especially when we start to see some strength. Check out some of the discount and high end retailers. Dollar Tree looks real attractive here. And lets not forget the teen play- they're going to continue to be insecure attention whores. I went to the mall recently for the first time in a while and there were mainly teens there, and a ton of traffic at Aeropostale especially and American Eagle. They're slowly losing out on their female base, because girls are moving towards the more frilly and looser fitting clothing. Anyone else notice that? WTF I'd love to know what stock to play based off that. Still a healthy amount of XX's at the ARO and AEO's of the world. Also expecting some dollar weakness from here on out. Gold's the play obviously. Not going to touch any other commodity, oils got a lot of room to the downside. Gas: wait and see. It's cheap, no question, but too much bearish news.
Time to dust off the SKF and EEV again.
David Dodds
Administrator
New position just posted on HEB website:
http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:Ey3yWR...=clnk&gl=us (Old page without position)
http://www.hemispherx.net/content/careers/ (New Page w/position added)
Having worked in manufacturing, you only need this kind of position if you plan on doing massive production. I think it's a great sign of things to come.
Although I suppose this could be a red herring I am starting to think too many things are lining up towards approval or a HUGE Japan deal.
- No Insider Sales when stock hit $4.50. Adds as high as $3.75/share
- This VP of Quality Control Position
- Huge efforts by the Street and Hedge Funds to beat this stock up, but it's still holding strong
- VP Dickey hired on with huge stock options at $2.81.
- Big dilution coming on 7/28
All points to something big to me. No way do you do all of these things as a ruse.
http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:Ey3yWR...=clnk&gl=us (Old page without position)
http://www.hemispherx.net/content/careers/ (New Page w/position added)
Having worked in manufacturing, you only need this kind of position if you plan on doing massive production. I think it's a great sign of things to come.
Although I suppose this could be a red herring I am starting to think too many things are lining up towards approval or a HUGE Japan deal.
- No Insider Sales when stock hit $4.50. Adds as high as $3.75/share
- This VP of Quality Control Position
- Huge efforts by the Street and Hedge Funds to beat this stock up, but it's still holding strong
- VP Dickey hired on with huge stock options at $2.81.
- Big dilution coming on 7/28
All points to something big to me. No way do you do all of these things as a ruse.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I am adding 10K shares on Monday morning if this not halted in the Pre-Market. Way too many clues for there not to be big news coming in my opinion. Whether FDA or Japan deal as adjuvant, something big is coming. If this all ends up being a ruse, then hats off to these guys because they have me fooled.
alright, #### this dodds. I'm the biggest heb hater in the world but i'm down a ton the past couple weeks so i'm buying 10k HEB shares on Monday.I don't trust myself anymore, but "In Dodds I Trust"
LET'S DO THIS HEB.
David Dodds
Administrator
LOL. I am not sure I want people to follow me here or not. But the more I dig into this thing, the more I am convinced something is going on. This thing vaulted to $4.50. Then all the negative pieces from Adam plus the attacks on the message boards. It feels orchestrated and I am certain it is. There have been a bunch of bear raids on this stock only to have it recoil and come back stronger. I understand the skeptism regarding Ampligen. It's an immune builder/improver which is the reason Dr. Carter has tried to sell this thing for every known illness out there. I think as an Adjuvant though he finally is on the right track. I have a feeling though over time, this thing could find it's way into a lot of different stuff because it helps one's immunity system. As for this getting FDA approval for CFS, I have no real clue. Either decision could be supported probably.But this new VP of Quality Control position looks like a deal with Japan as an adjuvant could be imminent. and frankly that is the piece that I get excited about. If you believe the Japanese reports on this, Ampligen allows major dilution to produce the same effects as a vaccine. This means a huge multiplier to the number of people they can treat for H1N1 or any of it's variants. If this thing is as claimed by Japan the best adjuvant by far, then a major player like Merck, etc is going to partner with HEB because of it's wide potential use with many vaccines, etc. This really has the potential to completely change the vaccination process.I hope I am not wrong here. Holding a $40K position or so (If I add 10K shares like I am strongly considering doing), it could drop like a rock with some awful news. The Hedge Funds could even take this thing into bankruptcy territory with full blown bashing and no FDA approval. So for anyone thinking of jumping in here, please make sure it's dollars you can afford to lose. This is as high risk as it gets in investing. This is a hail mary of sorts. If it hits, the rewards are going to be HUGE. But if it misses, it's going to leave a big welt you may not forget for a very long time.
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Going with your calls = +48kGoing with my calls = -32keven if your wrong it's better then what i would do."In Dodds We Trust"
David Dodds
Administrator
I woke up this morning and I am going to add just a little bit to my position and daytrade this thing. I don't think any of us should load up to an additional 10K shares actually. This thing could go to zero. There is a compelling case that Dr. Carter quite possible is a huge fraud. This posts scare meIm dumping my 10k shares of PRGN. I am going full force into HEB also.
I still think something is up though as it just seems too big of a lie (with too many people involved) to be a complete ruse. All I can say for anyone investing here, good luck. Don't press so much on this stock that you will cripple yourself should it miss. Because I think this thing could indeed miss.
Even if it has possibilities as an adjuvant, if FDA says no, I fully expect to see the bashing and hedge funds try and bankrupt this company with loads of naked selling, etc. They took down Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, crushed Sirius, etc. This one would be easy to do if FDA is denied. So anyone investing, remember that it could go from $2.50 to $0.50 in a blink of an eye.
July 28th is when they have the authority to dilute the stock. If nothing comes from the FDA by then, I am selling no matter what. And will watch for the FDA news. I think there will be time to make money after significant news breaks because there is so much opposition to this thing. And if they are diluting when the news breaks, there are a lot of shares in play.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I am going to go on record telling people not to invest in HEB right now. It's gambling at it's worst. Anyone doing it should do their due diligence, because they stand to lose almost every dollar invested if they are wrong about FDA approval (or use as an adjuvant) for Ampligen. This isn't a case where this stock will drop by 10-20% if you are wrong. It will drop 75-80% in seconds with no ability to exit in time. Again EXTREMELY HIGH RISK. Most people should not own more than a handful of these shares.
For those that do plan to buy more shares (or own them), expect no news, lots of manipulation with the stock, and the price likely dropping on most days.
For those that do plan to buy more shares (or own them), expect no news, lots of manipulation with the stock, and the price likely dropping on most days.
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The Kerminator
Footballguy
Great. Considering the number of shares owned by FBG if more of you do this it will create a great buying opportunity on PRGN on Monday.Im dumping my 10k shares of PRGN. I am going full force into HEB also.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Dodds when was the new QC VP job posted? I am almost certain they have not heard from the FDA for two reasons:
1) Prospectus filed on 2009-07-02 had stated they still have not heard from the FDA.
2) If the VP of QC was posted prior to Thursday, they would have had to release the news to public on Thursday (next trading day). If the job was posted Thursday, they would have to make an FDA announcement on Monday if they found out Thurs.
Also since all the new VP's coming on board are taking tiny salaries and a stock heavy package, HEB can afford these clowns regardless if Japan or FDA is coming in the next month or two. Carter could be pumping these guys up short term, the same way he is to the investors.
Disclosure: Holding 2300 HEB since 5/26
1) Prospectus filed on 2009-07-02 had stated they still have not heard from the FDA.
2) If the VP of QC was posted prior to Thursday, they would have had to release the news to public on Thursday (next trading day). If the job was posted Thursday, they would have to make an FDA announcement on Monday if they found out Thurs.
Also since all the new VP's coming on board are taking tiny salaries and a stock heavy package, HEB can afford these clowns regardless if Japan or FDA is coming in the next month or two. Carter could be pumping these guys up short term, the same way he is to the investors.
Disclosure: Holding 2300 HEB since 5/26
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Is this coming from pressure from Joe? We all get that it is a huge gamble. I actually think if HEB is rejected by the FDA that this stock will fall to a quarter. It dropped all the way to 1.50(just one trade, but still) just recently because of a raid. People will be scrambling to drop this crap like you wouldnt believe. I have positioned myself where I can afford to lose every share I own. I think others have done the same. I dont think anybody is going to hold you personally responsible for the rejection if it does occur.The points you have made are very well thought out and certainly point to an approval. You have never told other people to buy. I dont think you need to worry about a CYA policy here. On a side note is the reason that this stock always makes an end of day rise because of all of the short interest?
Otis
Footballguy
Yeah, DD, I don't think you have to worry about this sort of thing. We're all adults and are all responsible for our own trades. You're posting all the info you've found on HEB and explaining why you are bullish on it. If folks jump on the train with you, it's a risk they know they are taking. So stop worrying about this kind of stuff and just focus on your moatloads.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
wow. From 10000 shares to nothing?I think for the sheer gambling play of it, you should at least have some money in this puppy. If given the opportunity to bet 500 dollars on winning a coin flip that would pay me 1000 if I win, I would take it everyday of the week.
David Dodds
Administrator
No pressure from Joe at all. This is just not a "wealth building" stock. It's a lottery ticket. And my post was to make sure people knew that. And when people talk about buying 10,000 shares that hated it before, I get scared of that talk. Hell, I only own 8,000 shares and I am up BIG this year. After sleeping on things, I doubt I buy more shares, but will just react to any news or market fluctuations here. I think the stock goes up at the end of every day because many people expect the FDA decision to come in the afterhours. And yes I think many shorts (moderated sold every day at the end as an example) rush to cover to limit their exposure to the big pop should it come.springroll said:
David Dodds
Administrator
I am sure this is a just a computer glitch, but type in HEB into the quote section of this page:
http://finance.6abc.com/abclocal/?Account=...&Page=QUOTE
It's also wrong on Etrade and a few other sites.
I know the markets are closed today, but I can dream though...LOL
http://finance.6abc.com/abclocal/?Account=...&Page=QUOTE
It's also wrong on Etrade and a few other sites.
I know the markets are closed today, but I can dream though...LOL
The Ref
Footballguy
The us market is closed, but not overseas....... Maybe japan knows something we don't? Maybe that price is in Yen?23 handle would be so sweet.
David Dodds
Administrator
a whole bunch of stocks are wrong that would not have this possible surge. It's a computer error.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
SPPI rumor:
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/353266-j...als-nasdaq-sppi
Just bought some on Thursday so I really hope this is true.
Potential to get in exactly at 8 AM when pre-market opens to beat the PR.....
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/353266-j...als-nasdaq-sppi
Just bought some on Thursday so I really hope this is true.
Potential to get in exactly at 8 AM when pre-market opens to beat the PR.....
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Never mind - looks like it will go down before it goes up. Why do I suck so much?http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/sp...in,881774.shtmlNajehHejan said:
David Dodds
Administrator
It does not look like they owe much for the complete response letter. they expect to file by July 8th. My guess is this stock heads up on Monday with approval very close.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I hope so. My concern though is the FDA is so backed up and is of course a gov't agency so even if SPPI gets them info right away they could take months to finalize it. Doesn't the clock restart after a CRL? Guess we'll see. If it goes down, I will average down and hope for quick resolution.
Might be time to short BOTH FAZ and FAS at the same time. This strategy would have worked beautifully a year ago. There really isn't any risk, just wait for decay in both.
Reverse Splits in FAZ and FAS
Direxion has announced that FAS will be reverse-split 5:1 at the close on Wednesday and FAZ will be reverse-split 10:1 at the same time. Fractional shares which result from the split will be paid out in cash. This split may make it easier to short those ETFs for those so inclined. Trading stocks which price below $5 is generally not allowed for institutions, so this is the reason for the reverse splits. Both ETFs have declined substantially from their initial offering prices despite the fact that they are based upon the same sector and take opposite positions in that sector.
Reverse Splits in FAZ and FAS
Direxion has announced that FAS will be reverse-split 5:1 at the close on Wednesday and FAZ will be reverse-split 10:1 at the same time. Fractional shares which result from the split will be paid out in cash. This split may make it easier to short those ETFs for those so inclined. Trading stocks which price below $5 is generally not allowed for institutions, so this is the reason for the reverse splits. Both ETFs have declined substantially from their initial offering prices despite the fact that they are based upon the same sector and take opposite positions in that sector.
