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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

Lupe said:
Might be time to short BOTH FAZ and FAS at the same time. This strategy would have worked beautifully a year ago. There really isn't any risk, just wait for decay in both.
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Can you unpack this a bit? I understand the principle, but what sort of returns did you see during that time period? FAZ seems to be the real moneymaker if you play it right, so if we're expecting another downturn, this plan will work. FAS seems to be a deadweight and not as extreme a mover.EDIT: SKF seems to be oupreforming FAZ thus far, even on temporary bumps. :thumbup:
 
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I would just like to say after all of the reading I have done on the yahoo boards lately I have learned to appreciate the moderating team here at FBG. Man that place sucks.

 
This is LJ said:
Lupe said:
Might be time to short BOTH FAZ and FAS at the same time. This strategy would have worked beautifully a year ago. There really isn't any risk, just wait for decay in both.
Click to expand...
Can you unpack this a bit? I understand the principle, but what sort of returns did you see during that time period? FAZ seems to be the real moneymaker if you play it right, so if we're expecting another downturn, this plan will work. FAS seems to be a deadweight and not as extreme a mover.EDIT: SKF seems to be outperforming FAZ thus far, even on temporary bumps. :yes:
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From their inceptions, FAS has lost 60%. FAZ has lost more than 90%.The decay occurs because they track the RIFIN on a daily basis. If RIFIN goes up 10% one day and down 10% the next (or vice versa) your investment is only worth 99% of what you started with. i.e. if you put in $100, after day 1 you have $110, after day 2 you have $99. This is key with the 3X leverages because they are so volitile.

One thing I cannot figure out though is how FAZ lost so much between it's inception and March. Even with decay, the crash of the financials should have skyrocketed that one.

Neither one of these is more of a moneymaker than the other. They both track the same index daily and both do it consistently. It just depends on what direction you think the financials are going to go. I have traded a lot of FAS since March and made pretty good money because I have felt the financials were at the bottom and the government will not allow them to fail. I am still (cautiously) holding FAS.

I have not undergone a reverse split before though. Does anyone have any experience in what I should expect? I doubt it will really change the way these act since they are still going to track the RIFIN.

 
Good God. The proverbial writing on the wall for the USD is getting worse and worse. Dimes to doughnuts says that you will pick up 10% on your money just by having your money in overseas stocks in a years time as the USD devalues.

India Joins Russia, China in Questioning U.S. Dollar Dominance

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Suresh Tendulkar, an economic adviser to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said he is urging the government to diversify its $264.6 billion foreign-exchange reserves and hold fewer dollars.

“The major part of Indian reserves are in dollars -- that is something that’s a problem for us,” Tendulkar, chairman of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, said in an interview today in Aix-en-Provence, France, where he was attending an economic conference.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aSx4wlTQzexM

 
The Ref said:
Our fav CEO (not Carter) was quoted in a rather interesting article.

Ship seizures expected to rise

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/index....5&Itemid=79
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I think Paragon is in good shape as far as this goes. They've already got their new (06) Panamax's to work through Q1 2010, with the Golden Seas under contract through 2011. Further, their newest Supramax is booked through 2012. Much ado is made over spot shipping rates, and sometimes for good reason- especially for the Panamax's. But I can live with lower daily rates and longer contracts. As per their most recent Tradewinds presentation, PRGN management doesn't expect demand to return to '08 levels until 2011 (Slide 6).I guess I'd much rather have the peanuts secured for a while rather than short-term windfalls. I really like what they're doing. Smart team over at Paragon. :X

 
BTW, just ran the numbers on my end with FEED.

They look excellent. Clears 6 of my personal hurdles, including all 4 financial strength tests. Might drop with the market, but assuming its inputs stay the same and that it meets (hopefully betters) EPS expectations, I have a 12-mo target bound of nearly $8.38 with a best case scenario of $9.59. Based on average peer P/E's, which are historically low, it gets a $7.26 target.

Thought these were high, but apparently someone agrees with me.

 
Even though I picked FEED in our stock contest and have bought and sold their shares many times this year for profit, I remain skeptical right now to what they are doing. They keep diluting shares. They are associating with known criminals as consultants. They keeping giving away a ton of shares below market value. And this all at a time when hog prices have rolled back a tad. I suspect they are pushing this dilution now before 2nd quarter earnings because those earnings won't be as great as people suspect. This is a stock I am waiting (or passing on) until I see the 2nd quarter results.

 
Sold my 315 SPPI @ $5.65 in pre-market for a loss of $236.

Zevalin will be approved but probably not for a few months due to the new FDA delay. IMO the stock will be beaten down severely. I may try to get in later on at a much lower cost basis than the $6.40 I got originally got in at. My luck the stock will be green today and I totally blew this call but I just can't risk it. The market hates delays, even if it's a "not so bad" delay.

 
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today is going to be ugly isnt it?

KERX at .86 in pre. Would like to add at that price, but just dont have anything available.

 
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UNG continuing to fall. Glad I at least got out of one of my options on it but still riding the other two out.

Between PRGN and UNG it seems we are all having the same luck. I don't think the market is going to allow for many gains in the short term here.

 
I sold everything this morning and locked in profits while they were still there. Yes, sadly, I even sold HEB. I wish all HEB investors well and hope Ampligen gets approved. I have a feeling the next few months are going to be a blood bath. Aside from a few penny stocks I’m playing for fun with very small dollar positions, I’m going to ride cash right now and look to re-enter at a later date TBD. Good luck to all.

 
I got my last 5,000 block of PRGN at $3.45.

I feel like Im stealing and given my upbringing I am not sure I feel comfortable doing this.

Up to 15,000 shares at average price of $3.58

$4.50 share price would give me $14,000 gain

 
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Is anybody in NEPH? Right now looks like a good time to get in at 1.25. Recently received FDA 501k approval and have two more in waiting. Stock jumped all the way to 1.50 with the first approval and has pulled back.

These approvals are not for drugs, rather a filter.

 
David Dodds said:
They are giving away CENX right now... Seems like an easy day-trade stock too at these levels
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I'm looking at this hard, after Alcoa announces wednesday. I don't like industrials going forward but this is a steal at this price. I just sold this @ 6.26 last week. Reflationary trade getting crushed today.EDIT: Keep close watch on the SP500 levels. 880 is the 200day MA, and we're damn close to crossing.
 
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ok bought another 2,000 CENX at 5.15. Looking to squeeze a few dollars out of this by tomorrow at the latest. In a little deeper into this market than I am comfortable with this second. But not sure what to sell as I like this portfolio a lot.

 
David Dodds said:
ok bought another 2,000 CENX at 5.15. Looking to squeeze a few dollars out of this by tomorrow at the latest. In a little deeper into this market than I am comfortable with this second. But not sure what to sell as I like this portfolio a lot.
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What is your current status on PRGN? Unless I missed it, you haven't bought back any of the shares you sold. I expected you would be doing a mexican hat dance at these levels. You must be thinking it is going lower.
 
bigfishboy said:
David Dodds said:
ok bought another 2,000 CENX at 5.15. Looking to squeeze a few dollars out of this by tomorrow at the latest. In a little deeper into this market than I am comfortable with this second. But not sure what to sell as I like this portfolio a lot.
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What is your current status on PRGN? Unless I missed it, you haven't bought back any of the shares you sold. I expected you would be doing a mexican hat dance at these levels. You must be thinking it is going lower.
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I love these levels, but I don't sense it's going to spike up that fast. I also love FREE and SBLK at these prices for the Shippers. I will likely add some PRGN today. I got greedy on the CENX run up and should have sold I guess. I need to free up some money to better position this portfolio, but today seems like a horrible day to sell.
 
sold 7,000 HEB at 2.35 (holding just 1,000 now). Just too many other stocks that I feel more comfortable at these levels. I ended up making a small profit on these shares, but am kicking myself that I did not move out on all of my shares when this thing hit $2.70 last week. I probably will buy back in if I can get in under $2.25

 
PRGN is blowing the roof off!!!!!!!!

$3.54 and climbing like mad.

Make that $3.58. Already made $700 today.

 
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Today was very frustrating. I saw lots of red and literally had my entire account tied up. Lots of plays I wanted to make, but couldnt. I did sell some HEB and replaced it with DDSS.

Dodds, I would say CNB holding pretty well today is a good sign. So far so good there. I realize there is still the Otis factor, but I am optimistic.

 
On companies I like (good sectors, expected strong earnings, low P/E, etc), I like to watch the EMA(12) line on these stocks. Using the free software at Stockcharts.com will calculate this for you easily.

Anytime these stocks that I am tracking fall below 90% of the EMA(12) line, I am looking to add shares. I then hope to sell at 95% of the EMA(12) line or 5-8% above my average cost.

Some really good plays based on this indicator:

CENX - EMA(12) = $6.05, closed at $5.22

CNB - EMA(12) = $0.72, closed at $0.595

FREE - EMA(12) = $2.30, closed at $2.01

COIN - EMA(12) = $1.17, closed at $1.02

KERX - EMA(12) = $0.93, closed at $0.83

UNG - EMA(12) = $13.96, closed at $12.56

SBLK - EMA(12) = $3.73, closed at $3.37

PRGN - EMA(12) = $3.83, closed at $3.58

FCG - EMA(12) = $12.72, closed at $11.72

 
springroll said:
Today was very frustrating. I saw lots of red and literally had my entire account tied up. Lots of plays I wanted to make, but couldnt. I did sell some HEB and replaced it with DDSS. Dodds, I would say CNB holding pretty well today is a good sign. So far so good there. I realize there is still the Otis factor, but I am optimistic.
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Yes on paper, I lost plenty today. But I like the stocks I have too much to panic sell them. I own all below the EMA(12) lines and many at deep discounts. Just give us a 1-2% NASDAQ bounceback and I think these stocks will all rebound nicely.
 
Year to Date Profit = $141,189

Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses:

Sold 7,000 HEB @ 2.35 - Profit = $1,032

Holding:

1,000 HEB @ 2.20 - Just decided to sell here as I want in some other stocks. Will likely add if it dips below $2.25

400 CHK @ 22.77 - This thing is a horrible dog. I am likely going to dump it at a huge loss soon. I prefer FCG for my Natural Gas play going forward.

1,000 UNG @ 14.08 - Missed multiple opportunities here. Will wait for a rebound, but will play FCG for Natural Gas going forward

30,000 CNB @ 0.63 - I think this will be a big winner at some point. I doubt the government let's this bank fail.

500 FCG @ $12.35 - Down for now.



13,000 COIN @ 1.07 - I dug myself a bigger ditch here in hope to exit soon.

8,000 PRGN @ 3.69 - Price was right to buy today, but I liked other stock's values better. Still looking at adding here.

5,000 CENX @ 5.30 - Cost averaged to a great price here. I had an opportunity to sell today for a profit, but fully expect this to bounce back on a NASDAQ positive day.

2,000 KERX @ 0.89 - Love this price. Seems like an easy wait and sell at a high point.

5,680 FREE @ 2.10 - The other Dry Shipper I love at these reduced prices. Their earnings will be stellar again too.

2,000 SBLK @ 3.30 - These guys will have stellar 2nd quarter earnings as well.

 
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Code: 
Here’s the performance of the S&P 500  for each summer of this decade, marked specifically from May 31-August 31.2000:   +6.83%2001:   -9.71%2002:   -14.15%2003:   +4.56%2004:   -1.52%2005:   +2.35%2006:   +2.68%2007:   -3.72%2008:   -8.36%2009:   -2.50% (thru 7-3-09)Invest $10,000 on May 31, 2000 in the S&P 500.  Sell August 31, 2000.  Take the proceeds and go into hibernation until putting the money back to work the following May 31.  Repeat the process from 2000 through 2008.  Your original $10k is worth $7,906 for an annual compounded return of -2.58%, roughly the return that we’ve experienced so far this summer.
 
I got my account moved over to TD-Ameritrade and am going to be more active now. Bought 1,200 shares of PRGN today, the first 600 at 3.52 and second 600 at 3.42.

 
Right now the consensus opinion from the experts I know think the market is getting ready to go into some kind of freefall in a week to 10 days from yesterday (July 6th). Will it happen? I'm trying to figure out if there's any major news events coming in around that time frame that would set it off for confirmation. Typically these things happen around very bad news of some kind. Could be as simple as all the major indices falling decisively under their 200 day moving average.

 
beee said:
Right now the consensus opinion from the experts I know think the market is getting ready to go into some kind of freefall in a week to 10 days from yesterday (July 6th). Will it happen? I'm trying to figure out if there's any major news events coming in around that time frame that would set it off for confirmation. Typically these things happen around very bad news of some kind. Could be as simple as all the major indices falling decisively under their 200 day moving average.
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I feel like this coming drop is mostly already priced in:McClellan Oscillator

I am not saying we can't have a huge selloff, but if it happens be ready to buy as I think the market will rebound quickly from it.

 
Baltic Exchange Dry Index 3216 DOWN 159

BCI Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 5667 DOWN 437

BPI Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 2917 DOWN 52

BSI Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1724 UP 8

BHSI Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 759 UP 8

PRGN doesnt have any Capesize. So pretty much even day for PRGN.

 
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