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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Alias
Footballguy
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Bought back KERX at .83
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
They must of accidentally loaded up next week's HEB chart
Mark Davis
Footballguy
I'm with you here. I went to cash in my 401K yesterday. Granted I should have done it 4 weeks ago when I first contemplated it and may have lost about 7-10% because of that. Even though we are up a bit today, I'm not seeing anything that leads me to a reason to think we are going significantly higher. The best thing for my business and the other mutual funds I hold is for me to be wrong in this line of thinking but I just couldn't justify not checking out with at least some of the retracement we had from the lows. If we retest the lows and see them hold I will likely move back in at that point. If I'm wrong and it's all up from here then we can all be happy as other things will improve. However, I just don't see it.This is LJ said:
Otis
Footballguy
GOOD POSTING.They must of accidentally loaded up next week's HEB chart
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I haven’t been posting all my trades in here because frankly I’ve been so skittish that I’m making Ameritrade very happy with regards to commissions, but just wanted to let those who an appetite for penny stocks that I’m long 1,000,000 shares of MGLG @ .0013. Check it out, due your own DD. They have so many OS that the thing will never get to $1.00 but .01 or even maybe .03 are realistic targets. Their supposed to have a production report due out any day now (sound familiar? PGNE)
James Daulton
Footballguy
Anybody use tradeking? You have to call them to buy stocks under $1, and they charge a penny a share, so buying a lot of shares ends up costing a but load.
optionmaven
Footballguy
Et Tu Brute. I took more money off the shelf (equalling my total buy-in ===10k). Still have 10k in my account with about 65% in cash. It's free money basically and has reduced my stress a great deal. II don't think we are going to retest the 6500 dow mark, but i could realistically see 7000-7200. So much negative sentiment out there. My call of the dow being at 10k by end of yr looks to be in jeopardy. It still could happen, as the market will be pricing in "THE RECOVERY" before it actually happens.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
out again at .88
David Dodds
Administrator
SpongeTech® Delivery Systems, Inc. Announces Acquisition of Dicon Technologies
for you guys following these things
for you guys following these things
This is LJ
Footballguy
IN SLV, FAZ, still looking for that retail ETF. Anyone know if there is a dept.store/clothing ETF out there?
David Dodds
Administrator
Just watched all day. I set targets on all of my holdings and shockingly, KERX tripped today. Everything rebounded nicely and now my holdings all seem stable again.
Year to Date Profit = $133,420
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses: Loss =
Sold 5,000 KERX at 0.90 - Profit = $350 -18 = $332
Holding:
3,000 HEB @ 2.23 - Actually up on this now....
7,000 PRGN @ 3.54 - I had an opportunity to sell this for a profit.
25,680 FREE @ 1.96 - Back about even here after down big yesterday.
9,000 SBLK @ 3.27 - This is very solid now
Year to Date Profit = $133,420
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses: Loss =
Sold 5,000 KERX at 0.90 - Profit = $350 -18 = $332
Holding:
3,000 HEB @ 2.23 - Actually up on this now....
7,000 PRGN @ 3.54 - I had an opportunity to sell this for a profit.
25,680 FREE @ 1.96 - Back about even here after down big yesterday.
9,000 SBLK @ 3.27 - This is very solid now
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Mark Davis
Footballguy
I have a put written for SLV at 13 that looks like it very well may execute so I'm in there as well. GLD my strike is 89 so that is iffy. If I don't get it at 89 I'll write an Aug contract. I don't know that inflation is a threat near term but longer term I want to be in the commodities. Also bought some of Vanguard's Inflation Protected Securities Fund (VIPSX) not too long ago.
This is LJ
Footballguy
Interesting stuff with SLV. The Gold/Silver ratio coming up to a 6 year high. Since the last high, the ratio fell considerably, and both gold and silver saw linear price advances. But since mid 08, the ratio took off again, and the Gold price maintained/slightly dropped. Silver fell off the map. Its funny because we saw a situation very similar to this just last month when the oil/gas ratio was huge- and everyone expected NG to rebound sharply. Instead oil fell sharply and took NG with it. The ratio is still very high, however, but off the historical highs. Thoughts on the gold/silver play? Seems like Gold has too much support as an inflation hedge so I'm betting on Silver to buck the trend, but I can't shake the horrific month that alot of us had with the NG trade. I feel more certain about the inflation trade/dollar weakness than any other trade, and a ton of the smart money is either in or moving into Gold.But once those green shoots are confirmed, I'm gonna cut a lot of the precious metal exposure. Its 1000 or bust this time for Gold.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Swung and missed here. If I would have waited a bit I could have got in at a buck. I still like them for a quick pop on their second approval, but played this poorly.
PatsWillWin
Footballguy
Mark Davis
Footballguy
Today is getting ugly in a hurry.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
SPPI creeping toward the 4 dollar range. I have resisted so far, I dont think I could hold off if it gets there.
This is LJ
Footballguy
Oil below 60.....anyone playing it here? Its still quite a bargain at these levels, but I'm tempted to short with all the downward market pressure.
Best way to play this is SCO?
Best way to play this is SCO?
The Z Machine
Footballguy
PRGN down to 3.33... where it hasn't been since May 1.
Mark Davis
Footballguy
I've been doing well with writing DBO puts. However, I got overzealous a bit by writing a July 24 one that obviously will execute now. Rather than purchase it back I'm just going to take possession and start writing covered calls on it. That being said it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a further retracement. I'll be looking for spots to get back in a bit.
Since May 1st. They reported killer earnings and extended their charters for 2010 and 2011. But they did dilute another 10 million shares (but got probably 40-50 million for it). I really dont get it it.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
The entire sector has been walloped though. Even the big name players are off 25+% while PRGN is off 40+%. It's like no investors have faith that these companies are worth anything any more. very short term thinking IMO.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I have been watching all of the PRGN talk in this thread and really know nothing about the whole sector. When I saw it down to 3.36 today, I figured well these guys have been talking highly of it since it was well higher, I might as well play Dodds odds and assume it cant go any lower. So I bought.It looks like Otis must have bought too unfortunately.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
That's how we do things.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
right now you might be the only FBG in the green on this stock.
optionmaven
Footballguy
I think it has more to do with the macroeconomic picture right now. Too many (bad) factors for the institutes to ignore and they are driving most sectors down. Looking at option numbers, its hard to find a big cap stock with higher calls to puts ratio's. Lots of short term pressure here. I'm looking into shorting the homebuilders again. With a 1 million plus inventory, and another million wanting to sell but can't, i see more short term drudgery for them even though this is supposed to be their time of yr.
David Dodds
Administrator
Somewhat of an uneventful day here as the NASDAQ struggled to gain any real traction. Locking down my shippers waiting for a big rally day.
Year to Date Profit = $133,412
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses: Loss =
Sold 950 FREE @ 1.95 - 12 = - 8
Holding:
3,000 HEB @ 2.23 - Was tempted on adding a ton of shares at the close $2.03 and then moving out on them through the week. This could be my play on Monday if they open cheaply.
10,000 PRGN @ 3.48 - I added 3,000 shares at 3.33 to lower my cost a bit here.
29,730 FREE @ 1.945 - I added 5,000 shares at 1.88 and sold 950 at 1.95 to lower my cost a bit here. I plan on trading this in ranges and won't sell big chunks until this approaches it's EMA(12) line which is at $2.10 right now.
9,000 SBLK @ 3.27 - Just holding here for now
Year to Date Profit = $133,412
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses: Loss =
Sold 950 FREE @ 1.95 - 12 = - 8
Holding:
3,000 HEB @ 2.23 - Was tempted on adding a ton of shares at the close $2.03 and then moving out on them through the week. This could be my play on Monday if they open cheaply.
10,000 PRGN @ 3.48 - I added 3,000 shares at 3.33 to lower my cost a bit here.
29,730 FREE @ 1.945 - I added 5,000 shares at 1.88 and sold 950 at 1.95 to lower my cost a bit here. I plan on trading this in ranges and won't sell big chunks until this approaches it's EMA(12) line which is at $2.10 right now.
9,000 SBLK @ 3.27 - Just holding here for now
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#@%&$!?
Footballguy
Yesterday's news: HEB filed to issue 15 million shares for their employee "Equity Incentive Plan." That's alot of shares. Either they're gearing up for more bonuses and hires upon approval or they need to keep people from bailing in case of rejection. The latter really doesn't make much sense.
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946644/.../v154503_s8.htm
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946644/.../v154503_s8.htm
This is LJ
Footballguy
Update?Otis said:
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Oofey.
This is LJ
Footballguy
Digging the cut of your FAZ.
This is LJ
Footballguy
Good news for FAZ owners. RSI index just crossed 50 on the uptrend July 7th. This has happened 4 times since fund inception. 3 of the times, it gained 100+% over a 10-20 day period, the other time, it gained 50%.
See for yourself on the link I posted. On a very general basis, below 30 represents oversold, above 70 is overbought. When the RSI goes above 30 on the uptrend, it indicates a "soft buy" due to its going from an oversold position back upwards. When on the same uptrend it crosses 50 its regarded as a "strong buy". Crossing 70 on the uptrend is generally a sell signal, though it could still have some room to climb. Similarly, on a downtrend, going from 70+ downward is bearish, crossing 70 is the soft sell, 50 is the strong sell and 30 is theoretically where you'd want to end up getting covering. THIS IS NOT GOSPEL, though it seems to have a very good correlation with sector-based ETF performance.
For most of the year, faz flatlined in the 35-45 region, on the downturn. Since June its began a slow upturn, though the price hasn't necessarily responded in turn. I admit, I bought FAZ on theory alone without having done much DD but I like what I see. Conversely, FAS tried to start a trend from late June to July but bounced off the 50 and is headed lower. Something to keep an eye on.
EDIT: Fixed the first link.
See for yourself on the link I posted. On a very general basis, below 30 represents oversold, above 70 is overbought. When the RSI goes above 30 on the uptrend, it indicates a "soft buy" due to its going from an oversold position back upwards. When on the same uptrend it crosses 50 its regarded as a "strong buy". Crossing 70 on the uptrend is generally a sell signal, though it could still have some room to climb. Similarly, on a downtrend, going from 70+ downward is bearish, crossing 70 is the soft sell, 50 is the strong sell and 30 is theoretically where you'd want to end up getting covering. THIS IS NOT GOSPEL, though it seems to have a very good correlation with sector-based ETF performance.
For most of the year, faz flatlined in the 35-45 region, on the downturn. Since June its began a slow upturn, though the price hasn't necessarily responded in turn. I admit, I bought FAZ on theory alone without having done much DD but I like what I see. Conversely, FAS tried to start a trend from late June to July but bounced off the 50 and is headed lower. Something to keep an eye on.
EDIT: Fixed the first link.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I am feeling this too. August is still a long ways off and I see nothing that looks like it's going to prop up the overall market before then. Adding PRGN, FREE and SBLK a week or two before earnings probably makes a ton more sense than holding. I am hoping for a clean exit tomorrow, but not optimistic.
All of PRGN ship types are up for the 3rd straight day. 3 weeks before earnings.
Baltic Exchange Dry Index 2975 DOWN 10
BCI Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 4788 DOWN 56
BPI Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 2955 UP 3
BSI Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1834 UP 17
BHSI Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 800 UP 6
Baltic Exchange Dry Index 2975 DOWN 10
BCI Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 4788 DOWN 56
BPI Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 2955 UP 3
BSI Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1834 UP 17
BHSI Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 800 UP 6
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
CNB up huge so far. 24% gain. Run for the exits if you got 'em!
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Why has PRGN been beaten down so badly?
David Dodds
Administrator
When the economy tanks so do the Dry Shippers. They are considered to be in front of any recovery since shipping steel, aluminum, etc would happen if we were pulling out of the recession. There is some concern also that the BDI and corresponding rates are going to go a lot lower in the future months.But honestly I think it's bordering on ridiculous pricing levels for FREE, PRGN and SBLK (as all three companies should crush earnings). I am holding/buying here at least until we get deeper into August.
David Dodds
Administrator
going to try and play Market Maker here with FREE. I originally set a buy at 5,000 at 1.84. I held it there for about 15 minutes and got 800 shares. I now have moved this up to 1.85 and have gotten anther 1400 shares. Level II is showing my buy at 1.85 and a a big gap to 1.90 on the sell. I will hold here for a bit before slowly walking up the price to 1.90 using 1 cent increments.
