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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
I am hopeful for a better spot tomorrow, but I remain skeptical. This is a good company. I don't really understand why they need all this money, but it's likely the creditors that are demanding it. Spot prices are awesome for their ships and they live and die on the spot market. This might turn out to be an opportunity, but I suspect the price is going lower before it goes higher. $15 to $18M in stck when their share price is near $2 is a LOT of stock. Especially on a company that averages about 500K shares sold each day. Frustrated beyond words here even though I had a good trading day.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I hear you. I held the HEB roller coaster from late May until yesterday, sold at 2.27, now feel like an idiot. My pennies are doing well, up about 20-30%, but not the 50%+ that HEB is up. Congrats to the HEB'ers!!!!!!!!
David Dodds
Administrator
I don't like the stockpile numbers (final charts in this link), but I like where spot aluminum seems to be going. CENX had legs (closed at 7.90) on June 11th that corresponds to a nice run up on spot aluminum. Today spot tried to run much higher then fell back. With earnings in 2 days, I think CENX could be in play if spot heads higher tomorrow. Bummed I did not add more shares at the close (was busy fretting about FREE...LOL)
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum...ical_large.html
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/aluminum...ical_large.html
David Dodds
Administrator
Worst feeling is I spent a lifetime on the HEB boards only to figure out that this stock was a good buy and it was going to move soon. Then I bailed at the first profit and now am likely too late on this thing.
David Dodds
Administrator
I will tally stuff up later tonight. I had a good day actually, but I feel like crap about buying so hard into FREE without looking at the SEC filings page. I just never thought a company would issue so many shares so close to earnings. Unreal actually. I love the charter prices FREE has locked down though. Maybe we can still get the earnings surprise I was hopeful for when I bought these. Honestly though I am likely bailing at even the slightest gain tomorrow should that opportunity present itself. If not I will look to cost average down after weeks of dilution.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Last week I was down $1700 on HEB (unrealized). I exited with a HEB profit of about $200 bucks this morning, when it could of been $1700 profit - later in the day!
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David Dodds
Administrator
I think HEB might be a buy in the morning....even at these prices:
At 2PM just over 17M shares had been traded.
At 3PM just over 20M shares had traded.
by 4PM (market close) 32M shares had been traded.
So on a day with INSANE volume, another 12M shares traded at the highest prices in the day? Maybe this is just profit taking (or short covering), but honestly it feels like a market maker that knows the score. This is 4.5X normal volume. I think it's a given that this conference call is VERY GOOD news after running up big two days in a row on this kind of volume.
I am probably going to buy a few thousand shares at the open just to be part of this party.
Note: I stole the 2, 3 and close volumes from a yahoo post (I am going to try and verify those numbers from the NASDAQ site) later tonight
At 2PM just over 17M shares had been traded.
At 3PM just over 20M shares had traded.
by 4PM (market close) 32M shares had been traded.
So on a day with INSANE volume, another 12M shares traded at the highest prices in the day? Maybe this is just profit taking (or short covering), but honestly it feels like a market maker that knows the score. This is 4.5X normal volume. I think it's a given that this conference call is VERY GOOD news after running up big two days in a row on this kind of volume.
I am probably going to buy a few thousand shares at the open just to be part of this party.
Note: I stole the 2, 3 and close volumes from a yahoo post (I am going to try and verify those numbers from the NASDAQ site) later tonight
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The Ref
Footballguy
Red 6 Standing by!HEB is going to cure the Swine Flu and destory the death star all in one day.
David Dodds
Administrator
I think what could happen here is that the technology that HEB has here could change the entire vaccine process (no shots (nasal spray), use of adjuvants, etc). I suspect this conference call is going to announce a merger or huge contract with a big player in this space.
The Ref
Footballguy
Boom goes the dynamite. Apple tops earnings with strong revenue growth. Stock is up over $5 after hours. Yahoo even beat expectations by slashing expenses.
This rally has legs boys........ But I'm also at the point where I think the risk is now starting to outweigh the rewards.
This rally has legs boys........ But I'm also at the point where I think the risk is now starting to outweigh the rewards.
The Ref
Footballguy
I hope your right. I do agree that todays volume, for lack of a better term, speaks volumes about what could happen tommorrow with this stock.
David Dodds
Administrator
The thing that worries me about this stock is that there are about 6 Yahoo bashers of this stock and they were noticeably silent today. Some of these people have 5,000 posts this year alone bashing only this stock. Some were bashing this thing when it was at 40 cents. I honestly have felt for a long time that these bashers were there to just keep this price low (or create volatility so HEB could be actively traded). The fact they were silent today tells me the Market Maker, upon hearing of this conference call, used yesterday to load up. The bashers were going overtime yesterday. I then think the Market Maker tells them no bashing today and further pushes this into frenzy territory by buying on it's way up.I am starting to think this market maker could be dumping tens of millions shares tomorrow on the market as everybody waits for the conference call.Now maybe the conference call is great news, but he really does not care. His whole purpose was this was a very easy stock to create this kind of volatility with. 32 Million shares were traded today. Maybe that's a news leak of some kind. Or maybe it's just manipulation at it's finest. After the conference call completes, I am betting that the bashers will be back on the boards dominating every conversation. Even if the news is outstanding from the conference call, I won't be shocked to see the stock plunge. And every other post will talk about the upcoming dilution. This way the Market Maker can get these shares again at a reduced price for the next big spike.But despite all of these thoughts, I am looking to be in the mix trading this thing tomorrow. I probably will be selling right before the conference call.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
Wow. I hope you never get your own island, submarine, sharks with #######g lasers and armies of black clad men doing endless karate training in giant warehouses. That is some diabolical thinking and with a little money.....you could regularly threaten for world domination. I like it.
Otis
Footballguy
Why do you keep wishing so hard for this?
Otis
Footballguy
Well, I'm in a hearing all day and come back to my computer to learn that somehow PRGN goes up almost 5% but my September options go down. Double-u tee ef?
The ask yesterday was 0.50 and the bid was 0.45. It's the same ask today at 0.50, but the bid is at 0.40. So the stock moves up, the options stay even or drop. Slightly annoying.
I'm still holding tight. If this thing continues to run to 5, these options can only run up more.
Here's a really really stupid options rookie question: let's say these are worth a ton as the expiration date hits. And let's say I don't sell them. But I don't have money in my account to buy all of that underlying stock. Will Scottrade just cash in the options, buy the underlying stock and sell immediately and leave me the profit? Do I somehow lose out if I don't "exercise" them before the strike date?
Thanks.
The ask yesterday was 0.50 and the bid was 0.45. It's the same ask today at 0.50, but the bid is at 0.40. So the stock moves up, the options stay even or drop. Slightly annoying.
I'm still holding tight. If this thing continues to run to 5, these options can only run up more.
Here's a really really stupid options rookie question: let's say these are worth a ton as the expiration date hits. And let's say I don't sell them. But I don't have money in my account to buy all of that underlying stock. Will Scottrade just cash in the options, buy the underlying stock and sell immediately and leave me the profit? Do I somehow lose out if I don't "exercise" them before the strike date?
Thanks.
kaa
Footballguy
I'm not sure its possible to move a stock by talking it up or down on a yahoo board. You have to assume:1. Not every investor is a trader2. Not every trader is internet savvy (particular older traders over 40)3. Not every internet trader is reading the web4. Not every web internet trader likes yahoo.5. Not every yahoo web internet trader reads the yahoo investment forums.6. Not every yahoo web internet trader that reads the yahoo investment forums are swayed in the correct way by some conspiracy-led basher or pumper.
kaa
Footballguy
I do have to admit that quite a few private investors I know have read the yahoo stock message boards in the past. A lot of them have drifted away to other forums, often private and password protected in nature.
Its sorta like what happened to werewolf in the FFA. At first werewolf was welcomed here. Then they got tired of the complaints and childish sniping and set up their own forum. Sometimes they come back to recruit, but that's about it.
Its sorta like what happened to werewolf in the FFA. At first werewolf was welcomed here. Then they got tired of the complaints and childish sniping and set up their own forum. Sometimes they come back to recruit, but that's about it.
The Ref
Footballguy
Ha - I just came here from the HEB Yahoo board and I had read your post. That damn place gives me a headache. You could be right about the hiatus. It's real strange they would stop bashing out of the blue. I expect a real "S" show tomorrow. This thing might hit $5 and drop to $.50 the way today went.Either way, I'm just hanging out with my free 500 share and I'll hope for the knockout.
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The Ref
Footballguy
Some of you will hate me for this, but I took a tally of PRGN stock on or around the last week of June. I was able to compile a list of 109K shares of PRGN owned by this board. The price at the time was around $3.55. The price today in after hours is $4.55.
$109,000.00 anyone?
$109,000.00 anyone?
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downanddistance
Footballguy
Count me in 9500 @ 3.73
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Still in with my 4300 shares, but I bet the number of FBG shares held since that point in late June is 1/2 or 2/3 ... either way, some serious FBG scratch being made
David Dodds
Administrator
http://www.streetinsider.com/Press+Release...rs/4809448.html
I am buying this morning. By waiting on the new offering until September 4th, these guys are telling me they will only dilute to go into full production. If this were a scam they would not be doing that. I suspect HUGE news at the press conference today. I expect this thing to be a huge rollercoaster here shortly though. I am going to take a position early and watch to see what the market makers try to do based on the news.
I am buying this morning. By waiting on the new offering until September 4th, these guys are telling me they will only dilute to go into full production. If this were a scam they would not be doing that. I suspect HUGE news at the press conference today. I expect this thing to be a huge rollercoaster here shortly though. I am going to take a position early and watch to see what the market makers try to do based on the news.
David Dodds
Administrator
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Getting a real bad feeling about today...
Otis
Footballguy
Could be a retrace day (we're due for one), but things on the whole still seem pretty positive.
Cromedog
Footballguy
Wells Fargo is down big...5+%
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I am smelling false positive for a lot of these earnings. A combination of low expectations and some tricky accounting are making some of these companies look like hero's. A couple of misses could send this market back a good ways IMO.
Mark Davis
Footballguy
Look hard at the revenues. There are a few bright spots in the numbers I've seen but the majority have been tripping over already lowered expectations bars by cutting costs. I think most of us who work for publicly traded companies can tell you we're all running pretty lean, doing without, not replacing people that leave, etc. Improving the bottom line through those type methods versus growing revenues is a short term solution.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
I firmly believe that HEB will head down during or after the call.Clues that nothing monumental will occur are bolded:
David Dodds
Administrator
I got 3,000 shares at $3.06
David Dodds
Administrator
out of EEV at 18.13
David Dodds
Administrator
added 2,000 more HEB at 3.06
Random
Footballguy
addict.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Carter just said still no word from FDA on Ampligen
Mark Davis
Footballguy
Wow, the anchor just fell out of the sky on my quotes.
David Dodds
Administrator
added 4,000 HEB at 2.68
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Got lucky getting out of HEB yesterday afternoon ... may get back in if we approach $2 on the reaction ... seems like that point has been a pretty stable base.
How is it that everyone's info seems to be more up to date than mine on td-ameritrade? Dodds is buying HEB at 2.68, so I look and td-ameritrade says it is 3.11. This is just like the other day when HEB was 2.23 on td-ameritrade when everyone was saying it was over 2.40. Like five minutes later, it hit 2.40.
Now, like five minutes after Dodds' post, I see HEB at 2.67.
Now, like five minutes after Dodds' post, I see HEB at 2.67.
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