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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

Reaper said:
itriple said:
In for 5,000 more of PRGN at $4.05Up to 15,000 for the run to $5 next week. Again this couldnt get any easier. Following the same exact pattern as last quarter.Paragon Estates part 2.
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Just read a post in the Google forum saying that the whole dilution process is still in play holding this stock to 4.50 or so....Didn't a few posters here figure we were past that already?:waitingtopulltrigger:
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I would be extremely surprised that given the large volume and the push down from $5.50 to $3.25 that the dilution wasnt over a couple weeks ago.
 
This is LJ said:
oof @ SRSR. WTF?
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Yeah, I may have put my ever present jinx on anything I do on this one. I'm using my "play money" to gamble on this one so I'm not going to be able to double down here and trim my average cost. We'll see if that works out to be a good thing or a bad thing.
 
itriple said:
In for 5,000 more of PRGN at $4.05Up to 15,000 for the run to $5 next week. Again this couldnt get any easier. Following the same exact pattern as last quarter.Paragon Estates part 2.
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Your right that the pattern looks similar to what happened last quarter. I wish I was as confident as you though.GNK is the first shipper to report, it comes out after hours today. I am worried because it seemed last time when the shippers beat the street, the share prices began to run up before the release (as if info was leaked). However, GNK is down 5% on the day. If info was leaked, it must have been bad, and could indicate not-so-good earnings reports from other shippers. I hope I am worrying for nothing.GNKs estimate is 1.13, their EPS last quarter was 1.12.
 
Well, I got stop lossed out on the remaining 2,300 shares of PRGN at 4.03, as well as another lot selling earlier on the first rundown of 1200 shares at 4.18.

Between that and ****, I'm now down $400 after being up about a grand a few days ago. This lesson might be over for me, as I think I'll watch from the sidelines, especially with how overbought things are.

That being said, go PRGN and HEB, I hope you all make *moatloads*

:thumbup:

 
From AP: "The market will be looking for insights into the economy when the Federal Reserve releases its beige book report at 2 p.m. EDT. The report is a regional snapshot of economic activity."

Please be good.

 
I slept in, but moved 10,000 HEB at 2.40 to soften my stance there midday. I will look for a spot to add 5,000 back to keep lowering my average cost here. My triggers at 2.45, 2.55 and 2.65 did not execute.

Small profit = 10,000 x .02 = 200 - 12 = +188

Sill holding 15,000 shares at 2.38

 
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I will comment on the FREE Warrants:

PIRAEUS, Greece, July 29, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FreeSeas Inc. (Nasdaq:FREE) (Nasdaq:FREEW) (Nasdaq:FREEZ) ("FreeSeas" or the "Company"), a transporter of drybulk cargoes through the ownership and operation of a fleet of seven Handysize vessels and two Handymax vessels, announced today that it is extending the expiration date and reducing the exercise price for its 786,265 outstanding Class W warrants currently listed under the ticker FREEW.

The expiration date of the Class W warrants is extended to December 31, 2009 and the exercise price per share is reduced to $2.50. The original expiration date of the Class W warrants was July 29, 2009 and the original exercise price per share was $5.00. Each Class W warrant entitles the holder to purchase one share of FreeSeas' common stock. All other terms of the Class W warrants remain unchanged.

My Take: These guys are slimy. This basically will eventually add another 786,265 shares of dilution. The good news though is that these shares will be sold at 2.50 so people will only execute these if the share price is above that. Most likely these warrants are owned by management so in some ways this is a strong vote that they believe this stock will pass $2.50 by December 31st. Seeing how it's trading at 1.88 today, I am going to take that as an excellent sign. The spot market for their size of ships continues to improve so FREE could really close out the 3rd and 4th quarters strong.

 
This is LJ said:
oof @ SRSR. WTF?
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Sorry Dude.Wondering what the E-waver guy is saying...as I'm pretty sure a wave 4 cannot go below a wave 2. My guess is he'll wind up re-labeling wave 3 as wave 1...and this drop as wave 2...with a "powerful wave 3 upcoming".I've studied E-wave. My opinion is...for future projections it is as accurate as tea leaves. E-Wavers always wind up re-labeling in hindsight (unless they get lucky). People get caught up and believe E-wave is a map...it is NOT...it is more like a picture. If you have an interest in this kind of work...I'd suggest you pick up the book: "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by JM Hurst. Google "Hurst cycles". Most Hurst cycle times are horrible at their projections too. There was a guy who went by the name Airedale. This guy was spot on for years. He'd nail the exact highs and lows of the SP500 to the day within a few points 6 months out. At first I couldn't believe it...but I learned to pay attention to his posts. Sadly last summer he suddenly passed away. If you get the Hurst book...it is an impossible read. It will make ZERO sense the first time around. But after 3 or 10x through...you will have a much clearer picture. There is also a "course" that was taught by Hurst...that one is spendy...start with the book if you have an interest.As for SRSR...ran it through my charts...the good news is that on both the Daily and Weekly charts....$.08 is support. So you got that going for you.Finally, one piece of small advice: "Never let a winner turn into a loser." Hope SRSR runs.
 
Added 5,000 shares of HEB at 2.25 to bring my cost average of my 20K shares to 2.35

Set these targets:

Buy 5,000 HEB at 2.15

Sell 5,000 HEB at 2.40

Sell 5,000 HEB at 2.45

Sell 5,000 HEB at 2.55

Sell 5,000 HEB at 2.65

Lazy investing. Now back to working on the website. My goal here is to always have some shares. If I do sell out of shares though it will be because I made a very nice profit on them.

 
Dodds- Any thoughts on PRGN? Do you like it on this dip? Do you think it will run up at earnings?

I feel like Im flying a bit solo (altough I know others are in).

 
itriple said:
Dodds- Any thoughts on PRGN? Do you like it on this dip? Do you think it will run up at earnings?I feel like Im flying a bit solo (altough I know others are in).
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Yes I definitely do. I still rate these as FREE, SBLK and then PRGN though based on the current pricing. But yes I believe all are going up from today's pricing. I have my money pretty tied up here so I don't have a lot of room to maneuver. I will likely be kicking myself that I did not exit some of my FREE with a healthy run up yesterday to take advantage of this today. I like FREE best right now because even if the market dips significantly, I think it will stay above $1.80. That's a good safety blanket with the overall market so overbought.and I just want to be in HEB as i think this one could skyrocket on the smallest of news going forward. Has PRGN announced when earnings will be announced? I am guessing it will be before FREE which I think is August 26th.
 
bigfishboy said:
From AP: "The market will be looking for insights into the economy when the Federal Reserve releases its beige book report at 2 p.m. EDT. The report is a regional snapshot of economic activity."

Please be good.
Click to expand...
"Combined, the assessments of businesses on the front lines of the economy appeared to be brighter than those they provided for the previous Fed report in mid-June."Link

Seems like pretty good news throughout the article, though the markets aren't showing any difference.

Here's to GNK pulling us out of this after hours.

 
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The rally in 1929-30 lasted 147 days and was up 46% from the lows, this rally off the march 6th low has been 145 days and is up 46%.

And we all know what happened in 1930.

 
bigfishboy said:
itriple said:
In for 5,000 more of PRGN at $4.05

Up to 15,000 for the run to $5 next week. Again this couldnt get any easier. Following the same exact pattern as last quarter.

Paragon Estates part 2.
Click to expand...
Your right that the pattern looks similar to what happened last quarter. I wish I was as confident as you though.GNK is the first shipper to report, it comes out after hours today. I am worried because it seemed last time when the shippers beat the street, the share prices began to run up before the release (as if info was leaked). However, GNK is down 5% on the day. If info was leaked, it must have been bad, and could indicate not-so-good earnings reports from other shippers. I hope I am worrying for nothing.

GNKs estimate is 1.13, their EPS last quarter was 1.12.
Click to expand...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Genco-Shippi...ml?x=0&.v=1"Recorded net income of $37.6 million, or $1.20 basic and diluted earnings per share for the second quarter"

Soundly beat the estimate, hope the trend continues for the other shippers.

Why is it down after hours?

 
bigfishboy said:
bigfishboy said:
itriple said:
In for 5,000 more of PRGN at $4.05

Up to 15,000 for the run to $5 next week. Again this couldnt get any easier. Following the same exact pattern as last quarter.

Paragon Estates part 2.
Click to expand...
Your right that the pattern looks similar to what happened last quarter. I wish I was as confident as you though.GNK is the first shipper to report, it comes out after hours today. I am worried because it seemed last time when the shippers beat the street, the share prices began to run up before the release (as if info was leaked). However, GNK is down 5% on the day. If info was leaked, it must have been bad, and could indicate not-so-good earnings reports from other shippers. I hope I am worrying for nothing.

GNKs estimate is 1.13, their EPS last quarter was 1.12.
Click to expand...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Genco-Shippi...ml?x=0&.v=1"Recorded net income of $37.6 million, or $1.20 basic and diluted earnings per share for the second quarter"

Soundly beat the estimate, hope the trend continues for the other shippers.

Why is it down after hours?
Click to expand...
Google has it up $0.04
 
Year to Date Profit = $144,773

Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses =

Sold 10,000 HEB at 2.40 - Profit = 200 -12 = +188

Holding:

69,600 FREE @ 1.88

20,000 HEB @ 2.35

Somehow turned a profit in a down day in the market, so that's good.

I hate that both of these are now in the red, but I was able to lower my cost in HEB to $2.35 here (from $2.38). If we dip below $2.20 on Thursday, I likely will be buying again. Kicking myself that I did not sell some of my FREE when it ran yesterday (and I considered it at $1.95 as I suspected this will hold around 1.85-1.95 for at least a week). Not worried in the slightest here, but would like to hold more of a cash position so I can maneuver on the dips like today. I am basically handcuffed for awhile here until I can flip these stocks for some gains. Starting to really like FCG at these levels too (Natural Gas without the problems of the Contango wiping out gains each month).

Goal will be to turn these two positions into nice gains and slowly start moving into FCG for the winter months.

I have these sells in place (so I can sleep in each day):

Sell 5,000 HEB at 2.40

Sell 5,000 HEB at 2.45

Sell 5,000 HEB at 2.55

Sell 5,000 HEB at 2.65

Buy 5,000 HEB at 2.20

Sell 9,600 FREE at 1.95

Sell 10,000 FREE at 2.00

Sell 10,000 FREE at 2.05

Sell 20,000 FREE at 2.10

Sell 10,000 FREE at 2.15

Sell 10,000 FREE at 2.20

 
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PRGN shaping up to be the weaker of the shippers until earnings. Just crossed a pretty significant support, as the next one is at 3.69. There's no MA support, as its below both, putting heavy resistance on any potential upside this could have until earnings. Crossed below 50 on the RSI, MACD tightening and should form a bearish cross in the next day or two. Lastly, there's a gap from 3.69-3.9ish that needs to be filled, and historically, PRGN has been good about doing just that pretty quickly. Not that much downside, but I think another 8% haircut is likely. If we hold the 3.7 support, I think that's a great buying opportunity. I wouldn't get caught short on this though, too risky with earnings on the way.

FREE, however, looks really nice here. I think it'll retrace a bit, but its got 200MA support at 1.67 and a nice gap to fill up into the $2 range. MACD spread has been steady all week, as has the RSI. Further, we've got a bullish setup in the MACD once we start moving positive, for extra momentum. Finally, we dont have opressive resistance from the 50MA, so a pop could be pretty significant.

HEB charts are flat out terrible. Closed below the 50MA, RSI cross under 50, bearish macd cross monday with the spread widening. Sell now, as strong resistance doesn't come until the low 2.0's. Good for another 10% decline.

 
Jesus, everything looks real bearish right now. Even the precious metal play is gone. Gold and Silver both looking bad for the rest of the week. Hell, even oil.

EDIT: The US dollar looks very bullish here. Getting into UUP today AH.

 
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Acorn Energy, Inc. ACFN $2.20 $3.94

Actions Semiconductor Co., Ltd. ACTS $1.70 $2.18

Advance America, Cash Advance Centers AEA $1.95 $5.82*

Aehr Test Systems AEHR $2.27 $0.85-

Anthracite Capital Inc. AHR $2.32 $0.56-

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. ABR $2.96 $1.80

Benihana Inc. BNHNA $2.55 $8.11*

BMB Munai Inc. KAZ $1.52 $0.81-

Books-A-Million, Inc. BAMM $2.72 $9.82*

Callon Petroleum Company CPE $2.81 $1.60

FreeSeas Inc. FREE $1.80 $1.85

Gramercy Capital Corp. GKK $1.52 $1.39

Grupo Financiero Galicia SA GGAL $2.17 $3.48

KapStone Paper and Packaging Corp. KPPC $2.58 $5.22*

NN, Inc. NNBR $2.87 $2.16

Qiao Xing Mobile Communication Co., Ltd. QXM $2.78 $3.30

Qiao Xing Universal Telephone, Inc. XING $1.88 $2.34

Quiksilver, Inc. ZQK $2.04 $2.06

Ruth's Hospitality Group, Inc. RUTH $2.18 $3.54

Silicon Motion Technology Corp. SIMO $2.66 $3.93

Soapstone Networks Inc. SOAP $2.98 $4.21

Star Bulk Carriers Corp. SBLK $3.09 $3.55

Telestone Technologies Corporation TSTC $2.30 $4.59

TXCO Resources Inc. TXCO $2.41 $0.28

Valassis Communications, Inc. VCI $1.60 $8.32*

Warren Resources, Inc. WRES $2.72 $2.35

$60.58 $88.06

$60,580.00 $88,060.00

If you stayed the course

 
bigfishboy said:
bigfishboy said:
itriple said:
In for 5,000 more of PRGN at $4.05

Up to 15,000 for the run to $5 next week. Again this couldnt get any easier. Following the same exact pattern as last quarter.

Paragon Estates part 2.
Click to expand...
Your right that the pattern looks similar to what happened last quarter. I wish I was as confident as you though.GNK is the first shipper to report, it comes out after hours today. I am worried because it seemed last time when the shippers beat the street, the share prices began to run up before the release (as if info was leaked). However, GNK is down 5% on the day. If info was leaked, it must have been bad, and could indicate not-so-good earnings reports from other shippers. I hope I am worrying for nothing.

GNKs estimate is 1.13, their EPS last quarter was 1.12.
Click to expand...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Genco-Shippi...ml?x=0&.v=1"Recorded net income of $37.6 million, or $1.20 basic and diluted earnings per share for the second quarter"

Soundly beat the estimate, hope the trend continues for the other shippers.

Why is it down after hours?
Click to expand...
Someone want to help out here. I can't figure why GNK didn't bump on this news. Happy to see, but now I'm afraid we wont see a price move in FREE, PRGN or SBLK with simular results.

 
The Ref said:
Someone want to help out here. I can't figure why GNK didn't bump on this news. Happy to see, but now I'm afraid we wont see a price move in FREE, PRGN or SBLK with simular results.
Click to expand...
I actually thought their earnings report was pretty bleak. This looks like a company that will be diluting soon in my opinion.- Net income at 37.6M (down from 60.9M during the same time last year).- Total long-term debt is $1,173M (against owning 35 ships)- Earnings per share = $1.20. PE ratio = (24.46/(4 x 1.20)) = 5.10Nothing excites me about any of these numbers
 
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This is LJ said:
PRGN shaping up to be the weaker of the shippers until earnings. Just crossed a pretty significant support, as the next one is at 3.69. There's no MA support, as its below both, putting heavy resistance on any potential upside this could have until earnings. Crossed below 50 on the RSI, MACD tightening and should form a bearish cross in the next day or two. Lastly, there's a gap from 3.69-3.9ish that needs to be filled, and historically, PRGN has been good about doing just that pretty quickly. Not that much downside, but I think another 8% haircut is likely. If we hold the 3.7 support, I think that's a great buying opportunity. I wouldn't get caught short on this though, too risky with earnings on the way. FREE, however, looks really nice here. I think it'll retrace a bit, but its got 200MA support at 1.67 and a nice gap to fill up into the $2 range. MACD spread has been steady all week, as has the RSI. Further, we've got a bullish setup in the MACD once we start moving positive, for extra momentum. Finally, we dont have opressive resistance from the 50MA, so a pop could be pretty significant. HEB charts are flat out terrible. Closed below the 50MA, RSI cross under 50, bearish macd cross monday with the spread widening. Sell now, as strong resistance doesn't come until the low 2.0's. Good for another 10% decline.
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PRGN pretty strong $4.20 in pre-market :lmao:
 
springroll said:
dotman said:
itriple said:
kaa said:
Well today's drop in commodities really shows a correction is underway there. So the top I called in that regard is correct. We'll have to see if stocks really decouple or fall with them. The correction should be over several weeks, possibly several months. I probably won't have anything to add for a while. We'll just see where the bottom is. Good luck.
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LOL. I could predict the top/bottom of a run everyday and eventually Ill be right also.
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:ph34r: Seriously...throw enough #### on the wall and something will stick.
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1 for 9 isnt bad
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This broken record isn't playing today, but he'll be here the next morning when the futures are down premarket. I like opinions and point/counterpoints. I've had moments where i have bearish sentiment over my bullish nature. I hope i never make myself look as bad as this guy does continually.
 
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