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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
They havent not beat earnings in the last 8 quarters.
Nothing personal, but please do this ASAP.
Mark Davis
Footballguy
If you could buy FAS right now we could have the ultimate standoff on who can run worse.BassNBrew said:
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David Dodds
Administrator
added 10,000 HEB at 2.10. Now hold 20,000 @ 2.14
Have set the following sales:
Sell 5,000 at 2.15 (already tripped for 1,000 shares)
Sell 5,000 at 2.20
Sell 5,000 at 2.30
Sell 5,000 at 2.40
SBLK and FREE very very cheap here. But the BDI keeps slipping south.
Have set the following sales:
Sell 5,000 at 2.15 (already tripped for 1,000 shares)
Sell 5,000 at 2.20
Sell 5,000 at 2.30
Sell 5,000 at 2.40
SBLK and FREE very very cheap here. But the BDI keeps slipping south.
siffoin
Footballguy
I was rootin' for you earlier this morning...as it looked like the price was beginning to break. But 5 Oclock Charlie has been showing up earlier and earlier to "save" the day.FAS is seriously overbought...but fighting a trend like this is kind of like standing in front of a bullet train moving quickly towards you and saying "I think it is going to stop."If you could buy FAS right now we could have the ultimate standoff on who can run worse.BassNBrew said:
If/when you get the chance, pull a Forrest Gump and RUN!
Mark Davis
Footballguy
Believe me I'm trying. When it ticked down in the 70's this morning I was thinking I should close at least one of them out. I looked at the pricing and even though the stock was down, the call options outstanding had gotten more expensive. Even now as the price is up, the put options I wrote at 63 are selling for more than they closed at yesterday. That makes absolutely no sense to me. In addition, the calls that I wrote that are heavily in the money now are ticking higher than the gain in the underlying stock. To me it's intuitive that would break the other direction, especially as expiration day gets closer and closer. Of course this whole trade hasn't made sense on top of it being just a mistake, and if I can get any kind of break at all I'll be unwinding it as fast as possible.I was rootin' for you earlier this morning...as it looked like the price was beginning to break. But 5 Oclock Charlie has been showing up earlier and earlier to "save" the day.FAS is seriously overbought...but fighting a trend like this is kind of like standing in front of a bullet train moving quickly towards you and saying "I think it is going to stop."If you could buy FAS right now we could have the ultimate standoff on who can run worse.BassNBrew said:
If/when you get the chance, pull a Forrest Gump and RUN!
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Chuck Cecil
Footballguy
Unless it slides I will leave my money here. I am unable to day trade at this time so I am going long on the majority of mine. I just looked and I am up 7k now so figures crossed on this and in hopes it gets to $2 and possibly $4 if your predictions are correct.optionmaven said:
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bigfishboy
Footballguy
Officially scared about the shippers now, too. Of the six shippers I watch which have reported: one report stunk and shares plummeted, four have come in within pennies of the estimate and have fallen, and one beat the street but share price still fell.
The common theme for the companies that meet or beat estimates are that their top and bottom lines are way down for 2Q 2008. The news clips seem to highlight this and spin the articles to the negative.
I am scared for PRGN, FREE and SBLK. I want to hold till earnings, but don't know if I can make it. Last quarter most of the shippers rocketed at earnings and it boded well for PRGN. I realize some of these other shippers are pretty greasy, but they seem to pull the entire sector down.
The common theme for the companies that meet or beat estimates are that their top and bottom lines are way down for 2Q 2008. The news clips seem to highlight this and spin the articles to the negative.
I am scared for PRGN, FREE and SBLK. I want to hold till earnings, but don't know if I can make it. Last quarter most of the shippers rocketed at earnings and it boded well for PRGN. I realize some of these other shippers are pretty greasy, but they seem to pull the entire sector down.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Is this in reference to their country of origin?
Cromedog
Footballguy
I'm thinking of doubling down here...anyone else thinking that way? I hold the Trifecta - 2000 PRGN, 1000 SBLK and 1000 FREE
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Anyone in FBN? Siffoin, what do your charts tell you on this stock?
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
If I had more fundage available, I would. Still holding 4300 PRGN, 400 SBLK and 1320 FREE.
siffoin
Footballguy
If you think C is going to $4+ by end of month...Why in the wide wide world of sports wouldn't you exercise the 30 contracts right now (Delta shows profits are greater long stock than long the Sept 3 calls by a significant amount)? In addition don't you want to OWN "C" since you are of the "conservative" opinion C will be $40+ within 2 years. That would be the home run of a lifetime. (*Note: I may not necessarily hold the same opinion as Mr. Maven...my point is trading is about trusting your methods...and when you are of the belief you hold a 10 bagger...you don't let those off the hook early ...EVER!)optionmaven said:
The Z Machine
Footballguy
BTW, WTF just happened with FEED? It dropped 5% in an hour. Obviously some rumor or news hit.
David Dodds
Administrator
I think something is brewing with HEB. The Hedge Funds have been trying to push this thing below $2.10 for awhile now and it just won't go there. They let it run yesterday (got to $2.30), only to pound it back down. It hit $2.10 again and just won't go below that. I am pretty sure major accumulation is going on right now. I think news is at most a week away here.
Disclosure: Currently holding 15K shares of HEB at $2.14 (just sold a little bit at $2.15) as my strategy to to keep using these fluctuations to lower the price. I think I am going to change the next 5K to sell at $2.25 as the resistence seems strong at $2.10.
Disclosure: Currently holding 15K shares of HEB at $2.14 (just sold a little bit at $2.15) as my strategy to to keep using these fluctuations to lower the price. I think I am going to change the next 5K to sell at $2.25 as the resistence seems strong at $2.10.
siffoin
Footballguy
On a daily chart...You should have bought in somewhere between 7/16-7/22 around $3.20...that would have been a solid entry.Now it has moved up in a nice bullish trend for a 40% gain in the trend. That seems like a big move to be jumping in.The question you need to ask is: how much farther can this thing run? In addition I'd pay attention to the price $4.80...which is the May high..and may offer some resistance.The weekly chart is Neutral...the monthly chart is Bearish.Me: I only trade ON THE DAY the trend flips from a sell to a buy or a buy to a sell. Never once the trend has been firmly established. By waiting for the best moments to buy and sell I'm assured of bigger gains and smaller losses. But people have varying opinions. And maybe you know something about FBN that I don't...I'm just looking at a chart. It's akin to fishing (fishing=profits). Some people go fishing for grouper (or whatever particular fish (company) you want to name). That's all they want...grouper. They are so focused on grouper they never even see that school of snapper that swims by...or the marlin just off the stern. Me I just want to catch fish...little ones, big ones...I don't care. I'll buy something one day and short it the next...I have ZERO emotion invested in any position. My only question is: do I think it is going up...or do I think it is going down?
Wish I had seen your post a little sooner. Looks like somebody dumped a block of 140,000 shares at market, then a few others piled on. That kind of sell on a small volume stock can drop the price quickly. Predictably it's now bounced back almost to $6, would have been a nice little daytrade.
bigfishboy
Footballguy
OK, I'll add you two to the optimist list with itriple! I hope you are right.I am also guessing you are planning to roll some PRGN profit after reporting into SBLK and FREE? That was my plan, not so sure anymore.
PRGN is showing some nice resistence despite the big drop in shippers across the board. I re-bought some that I sold earilier in the day. I am feeling better about this.
skycriesmary
Climbing up the Walls
Against better judgement, I'm temted to get back on the shipping train with this dip. The question is which one is poised for the biggest bounce in the next week or so. I'm assuming PRGN, although SBLK and Free look cheaper at the current valuations.
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Yep, and I am planning to roll from PRGN to SBLK to FREE ... although I still can't figure out when SBLK reports.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Thanks for the info. I got in at $2.97 and am trying to figure out your question of "how much farther can this thing run"?
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
You think the Russell index infusion has helped bolster this above $2.00?
bigfishboy
Footballguy
I am trying to get in at this level, but can't get any funds liquidated.Also, it has been commonly blipping up at the end of the day. This may be just a blip like yesterday, for your sake I hope not. But I won't be surprised to see it back down to 0.065 tomorrow.
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siffoin
Footballguy
Well you have a nice winner on your hands. I'd watch to see what happens at $4.80. The thing with trend trading is...while the trend remains intact ride it. But since I don't know the future...and you don't either...I'd also make a decision on where will you take profits if this trend stalls and price action begins to move down? You've hit a solid triple and are rounding third to stretch this out for an in-the park HR...don't get thrown out at the plate...ie: don't let this winner turn into a loser.
optionmaven
Footballguy
So Siff, you are saying that i should exercise option immediately and my profit will be better than holding the option? I'm in and down with that. Going to do a couple of quick sales and free up cash to do this tomorrow. I don't know that C will run to 40, nor did I say that. I do think we could hit 20 though, and thats more than enough for me. I did this once already with C when i bought 2 dollar options in march. I sold off after it stalled out, but had a double up and was happy with that. I probably should do the same with BAC then i'd imagine. Still holding 10 dollar AUG calls. I'm better off excersising now than on expiration day? I better go sell of some more LVS and WYNN.
siffoin
Footballguy
Well at the time I looked at it Delta was .83. That means if C moves up $1.00 your calls will only go up $.83. So would you rather make $.083 for every $.10 move C makes or would you rather make the full $.10. Profit-wise the difference is significant...assuming you are still bullish on the position.In regards to the run to $40...I was under the impression that if you felt CIT would go to $20 (conservatively) in 2 years (a more than 10x)...you would hold the same view for C...if not, then why wouldn't you put everything into CIT? Now if I had a "sure-thing" that was a 10x bagger...I'd be selling everything I own to go all-in. Sadly, I've come to the conclusion that "conservatively" I don't know what is going to happen in the next 5 minutes...much less the next 2 years.
Your 10 BAC calls have a delta of $1.00...they are so far ITM that it makes no difference what you do...the question is do you want to own BAC for $10? And if you exercise, I'd turn around and write covered calls on the position at the first sign of a daily change in trend. On owned stock...the goal is to lower cost basis at every opportunity...the best technical "opportunity" present on trend changes on a daily chart. Smart management should get cost basis of any owned stock to near $0.00 within 3 years. Only then can you "hold" through thick and thin.
Whatever you do remember no profits are guaranteed until you fully close out the position.
optionmaven
Footballguy
Thanks for the info. Always appreciated. Now i'm left questioning what to do. It was easy for me to free up 3K of my 18K portfolio. Which is what i'm going to need to take possession of my 3 BAC options on the 22nd. I like this long term alot. It will take me 9K to buy my 30 contracts of C. I don't know that i want C being in control of so much of my portfolio. I'd be more comfortabe with 1000 shares instead of 3K. Thats what I will probably do, unless you have another suggestion. I don't know where the market is gonna be in 2yrs either. I'd like to think we are in a long recovery stage and can at some point in the next 2 yrs, we come close to that dow 14k number or better. God I'm optimistic.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
One way of looking at option delta is what is the chance that the option will finish in the money. An in the money call option on expiration will have a delta of one. So the delta of you C sep 3.00 call is around .83. (did not look up going by siffoin) The market is basically saying as of right now your option has an 83 percent chance of finishing in the money. (and will move up 83 cents for every dollar the underlying moves) As you get closer and closer to expiration, if C stays at 3.80 or increases in value the delta will go up. If you converted your stock right now you would capture more of the upside but you would have to outlay quite a bit of money that could be earning interest or used on other investments. Not giving investment advise just helping to explain the cost/benefits of owning stock vs options.
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optionmaven
Footballguy
I see what you are saying. Taking posession now will make me bigger profits but will cost me out of pocket money i'm not obligated for now. I like advice so don't worry about dishing some out.....at least not to me. This thread has been awesome in that regard and I hope I never come across as someone who thinks they know everything. I also hope some of my picks have made other people money. I don't know this to be true, but i hope it is. Thats what this is all about to me. Passing knowledge and making a buck.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
Yes. Also note that if the stock continues to go up, you will capture more and more of the upside with your options. The delta is .83 now but it will continue up as long as the stock goes up. ( there are some caveats, if volatility spikes, your delta will go down with in the money options). Instead of exercising you options you could simply sell them whenever and then put on a sythentic long position with options if you want to control a large amount of stock without putting up a lot of money. Siffoin had a post about this and I'm sure he would be happy to explain it or you can google it. Or you can just sell your options whenever, buy 1000 shares of Citi and write calls on them. Depends on your risk tolerance and market opinion. (although you might want to sell it all now as Cramer just recommended C lol)
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siffoin
Footballguy
If it were me I'd do something like this:#1: You just hit a walk-off grand slam kind of win. I'd cash it...sit back...and make 100% sure that my next move is NOT based off the high of that win.OR#2: Assuming you are bullish on BAC...I'd turn around and write 10 put contracts on the Nov16's and collect close to $1.60... Thats close to a 10% return on the stock in 3 months time. Again that's assuming you are bullish on BAC till Nov (my opinion may vary). Since you are already considering buying 1000 shares at $16.70...in the worst case (BAC trades below $16, and the stock gets put to you) well if you liked it enough at $16.70 to own it...you should like it even more at $16.THEN#3: Assuming BAC continues to run...and the puts expire...I'd do a similar trade in Nov...write N(ear)TM puts...a few months out and collect 10%. You do that 4x per year...you made 40%...and never owned the stock.Finally- that's going to be my last post about the market for a while. And l'm going to try and refrain from posting any more trading strategies here again (that'll be difficult, I know). In the end, it frustrates me to see people lose their hard earned money in the market...and I've tried to offer an honest opinion on how you can do better...trade smarter. I hope it has been helpful.With that said...good luck on your HEBs, your PRGNs, your FREEs and all the other fun stuff you guys trade.
Das Boot
Footballguy
Nor the after market numbers (usually on very small volume), but people still get excited by them.I would say the number one thing I've learned by reading this thread over the last 5 months is last pre-market reports mean absolutely nothing.Good call here.
Yu Fring Puandpi
Footballguy
Confucius Say: Technicar rook bad. Short everything in morning. Market rike mountain, you crimb and then farr over other side.
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This is LJ
Footballguy
In all honesty, it looks terrible. Even the most downtrodden sectors (Real estate, retail) have etf's that are currently in overbought territory. Nasdaq seems to be a bit ahead of the curve, because the front end of earnings season was nasdaq heavy, while the meat of it was dow/s&p. So the Nasdaq realized its gains earlier than most and now has dipped below overbought downside (RSI: 70), showing a very bearish signal. Furthermore, bearish MACD crossovers and drying up of macd spreads indicate that buying pressure might be exhausted. On all indices. I'm hoping I can liquidate tomorrow before any sort of drastic move. We haven't seen a volume spike to catalyze the move, but I suspect its coming. This is it folks, its been a hell of a run but I suspect once that volume spike gets hit, we run down quickly. I'm taking my chances tomorrow morning. Never would have thought we'd see S&P1k a month ago, but hell, I'll certainly take it. Hopefully we can hold the dow 9000 level, as it should pose a pretty significant psychological level; i think its a huge battleground thats going to be the trendsetter in this move. That level represents about a 25% replacement from the uptrend, which I think is pretty fair in a bull market. Healthy too. If we hold, its a great launching pad for the next trend up. If we dont, we have a good ways to fall. 8700 possibly.
DOW will be 10k before the end of the month. I have a model that I run stuff through and it is never wrong.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
C just broke $4 for the first time 3-ish months. I'm in at 1.38 on these.
Mose
Footballguy
I sold at $6 for a loss even!
Mark Davis
Footballguy
I closed one of my FAS call positions late yesterday. So far I'm glad I did. This wasn't one of my better moves to say the least. The thing just keeps on skyrocketing. I'm still in one of the calls but have 3 puts offsetting it so the action today has left me pretty much neutral for the day on the parts I still hold. At some point I still believe FAS will crater but I don't have the stomach or resources to see it to that point.
