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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
The Z Machine
Footballguy
It's up 3% AH. It dumped more than that in the last 2 hours of trading today though.We'll see what happens tomorrow.itriple said:
David Dodds
Administrator
This company always seems to run up a bit before earnings. The BDI seems to be heading back up so I expect PRGN to be leading that rally back into these stocks.itriple said:
The Ref
Footballguy
It's known as the "US Dollar index".http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY%3AINDAlias said:
In short, the index tracks how strong the US dollar is vs a market basket of the worlds major currencies. The lower the number, the less it takes to buy dollars by everyone else in the world (on average).
From Wilki
The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with
Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.
USDX started in March 1973, soon after the dismantling of the Bretton Woods system. At its start, the value of the US Dollar Index was 100.000. It has since traded as high as the mid-160s and as low as 70.698 on March 16, 2008, the lowest since its inception in 1973.
The makeup of the "basket" has been altered only once, when several European currencies were subsumed by the Euro at the start of 1999.
USDX is updated whenever US Dollar markets are open, which is from Sunday evening New York time (early Monday morning Asia time) for 24 hours a day to late Friday afternoon New York time.
USDX can be traded as a futures contract on the IntercontinentalExchange (ICE).
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Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Sorry to kinda derail this thread, but what's the BEST ETF for tracking natural gas? in particular natural gas prices that are bound to rise in the near future. What about biomass?
Also, do you think I should sell GLD? I've been holding it for a year + now. Made a nice profit.
Also, do you think I should sell GLD? I've been holding it for a year + now. Made a nice profit.
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The Ref
Footballguy
Welcome to the thread. For the most part this has been a cool thread with people helping each other answer questions just like the one you asked. Good news for you a lot of us have had the same question over the past few months. At first a few of us got into UNG. This is a fund that trades Nat Gas Futures. What we all quickly figured out is that this ETF is the Devil. In short, when they roll contracts over the ETF gets porked because all of wall st knows what the fund is doing and when. A few of us looked a some indivisual companies but Dodds found an ETF FCG. This ETF basicaly owns all of the top Nat Gas companies in North America. As the gas prices have gone up this ETF has done real well. I personaly bought 400 about 5 weeks ago at $15.50, and it's almost touched 19 - so far the nat gas trade has worked out well. I don't know if you just want to play FCG, but I wanted to try my hand at nailing a best in class company. I know a lot of the guys in here have bought and sold Chepeske Energy CHK, But I prefer Ultra Petrolium UPL. I bought 100 at the same time as I got into FCG and thats up roughly 8 points.As for your GLD question it's hard to answer without more details. In short my answer would be if you don't own 10% of your wealth in hard assets I'd hold onto any Gold/Silver you can muster.
David Dodds
Administrator
I looked into the contract they signed and it looks like they secured a pretty good deal. This is for their 2001 Panamax Diamond Seas and the contract is for 23 to 25 months at a gross daily rate of $16,250 with an option of 11 to 13 months at a gross daily rate of $18,500 during the option period. This is less than the $27,500 they are getting now for the contract they signed in 2007. But it's also higher than the Calm Seas (15,775/day), Deep Seas ($15,000/day) and Coral Seas ($15,775/day) deals they penned earlier this year.This new charter arrangement increases PRGNs fixed revenue days in 2010 and 2011 to 96% and 81%. They have just one ship (Saphire Seas that needs a contract in 2010) if they continue through with their vision to sell off the HandyMax Blue Seas in the 4th quarter. With the equity they have raised and the best operating expenses among all of the Dry Shippers, I expect PRGN to be aggressively looking to add ships within the next 12-18 months. This should lower their fixed expenses even more per contract.My take is this company not only weathered the storm here during a tough economic downturn, but is exiting as a lot stronger company going forward. Their balance sheet continues to improve (more cash on hand, less debt, no ships on order, etc) and they are poised to succeed at a time when most every other Dry Shipper has debt issues, need to cancel/postpone ship builds, etcitriple said:
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David Dodds
Administrator
Everything coming up roses for this company. Ticker: OSK
Oshkosh Corp. is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of a range of specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies. The Company operates in four segments: access equipment, defense, fire & emergency, and commercial. As a manufacturer of severe-duty, heavy- and medium-payload tactical trucks for the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the Company manufactures vehicles that perform a variety of tasks, such as hauling tanks, missile systems, ammunition, fuel and cargo for combat units. The Company entered the firefighting apparatus market through the acquisition of Pierce Manufacturing Inc. (Pierce), which is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of firefighting vehicles. The Company subsequently expanded into additional emergency response and geographic markets to form its fire & emergency segment. In July 2009, the Company completed the sale of the Geesink Norba Group, based in Emmeloord, The Netherlands, to Platinum Equity.
BAE is fighting them over OSKs huge govt contract win, but I think Gates likes these guys based on what I have read. Plus I think this has a feel-good story to it. Wisconsin led manufacturing company is thriving in this down economy. I will be buying this in the morning. It keeps setting new highs. Hopefully it still has some legs to close out the year
Oshkosh Corp. is a designer, manufacturer and marketer of a range of specialty vehicles and vehicle bodies. The Company operates in four segments: access equipment, defense, fire & emergency, and commercial. As a manufacturer of severe-duty, heavy- and medium-payload tactical trucks for the United States Department of Defense (DoD), the Company manufactures vehicles that perform a variety of tasks, such as hauling tanks, missile systems, ammunition, fuel and cargo for combat units. The Company entered the firefighting apparatus market through the acquisition of Pierce Manufacturing Inc. (Pierce), which is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of firefighting vehicles. The Company subsequently expanded into additional emergency response and geographic markets to form its fire & emergency segment. In July 2009, the Company completed the sale of the Geesink Norba Group, based in Emmeloord, The Netherlands, to Platinum Equity.
BAE is fighting them over OSKs huge govt contract win, but I think Gates likes these guys based on what I have read. Plus I think this has a feel-good story to it. Wisconsin led manufacturing company is thriving in this down economy. I will be buying this in the morning. It keeps setting new highs. Hopefully it still has some legs to close out the year
optionmaven
Footballguy
Welcome back, you were definetley missed. I was asking about FEED a page or two ago in this thread. Weren't the ranges of buy in the low 5's and sell in the low 7's? I thought thats what it was, but couldn't remember. I put in a buy order for FEED this morning. I'm looking at the february 2.50 calls. Put in a bid for 2.50. Looks like they are at 2.62 right now.
Mark Davis
Footballguy
Wanted to get some feedback from some of you guys on a financial decision I'm coming up on...
I have what to me is a significant sized CD coming due at a bank tomorrow. The best rate of return on it I can get now is 2.25%/1 year. I'll be transitioning from a job and running my business to only running my seasonal business somewhere between tomorrow and 9 months from now (bad work situation where our dept is getting laid off but any of us could be gone by day's end). My business is wrapping up soon for this year and the well will be dry until next August or so. That said, I do have a fund built to live on in the interim. This CD was just savings and I was planning on taking the monthly interest for extra cash to live on or even save if I didn't need it, which I shouldn't need the interest to live on. My main concern is trying to keep it safe and not lose value.
My dilema is that I feel that the US$ is really in a perilous spot. I already have a CD of equal size I let renew and now I'm wondering on this one if I shouldn't put all or part of it in VIPSX. It should also be noted that my business is cash intensive each year for inventory costs. Therefore I have other cash reserves that have to be left in cash for these purposes. Therefore I'm already pretty heavily weighted to cash in my overall financial portfolio. This CD constitutes 10% of my net worth so it's far from insignificant to me.
Any thoughts on this and potential risks of VIPSX? My initial thought is the main risk to that fund is the US$ strengthening, in which case my other dollars would make up for any lost value. Any other funds anyone uses they might think fits the bill here?
I have what to me is a significant sized CD coming due at a bank tomorrow. The best rate of return on it I can get now is 2.25%/1 year. I'll be transitioning from a job and running my business to only running my seasonal business somewhere between tomorrow and 9 months from now (bad work situation where our dept is getting laid off but any of us could be gone by day's end). My business is wrapping up soon for this year and the well will be dry until next August or so. That said, I do have a fund built to live on in the interim. This CD was just savings and I was planning on taking the monthly interest for extra cash to live on or even save if I didn't need it, which I shouldn't need the interest to live on. My main concern is trying to keep it safe and not lose value.
My dilema is that I feel that the US$ is really in a perilous spot. I already have a CD of equal size I let renew and now I'm wondering on this one if I shouldn't put all or part of it in VIPSX. It should also be noted that my business is cash intensive each year for inventory costs. Therefore I have other cash reserves that have to be left in cash for these purposes. Therefore I'm already pretty heavily weighted to cash in my overall financial portfolio. This CD constitutes 10% of my net worth so it's far from insignificant to me.
Any thoughts on this and potential risks of VIPSX? My initial thought is the main risk to that fund is the US$ strengthening, in which case my other dollars would make up for any lost value. Any other funds anyone uses they might think fits the bill here?
Mose
Footballguy
Level 2 looks pretty wimpy for the next 10 cents up.
David Dodds
Administrator
I added 200 OSK at 34.50 here. I am pretty sure I will be doubling down on COIN soon here as well.
5Rings
Lurker
What do you guys think of bank stocks?
I made out great on BAC earlier this year and have been monitoring it...its falling to about 16 today, and I'm thinking of jumping back in for the inevitable ride back up. Thoughts?
-aw heck, just bought 2000 shares
I made out great on BAC earlier this year and have been monitoring it...its falling to about 16 today, and I'm thinking of jumping back in for the inevitable ride back up. Thoughts?
-aw heck, just bought 2000 shares
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David Dodds
Administrator
Added 5,000 more COIN at .962. Set all 10,000 shares to sell at 1.05
5Rings
Lurker
2000 at 16.27, sold at 16.52. nice $500 turn in an hour
optionmaven
Footballguy
I'm hoping for a little more runup. I sold some november puts and i really don't want them called away from me. I'd also like to be into Goldman Sachs as I think they will hit 200 in the near future. Not sure if i can find any value in options right now though.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
Anyone still long oil? Only thing I have been in since end of August but maybe looking to get out and get flat.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Sold PTR at $130Holding BP (up 10% plus nice div)
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Long XOM is my only oil exposure
Random
Footballguy
Also long XOM
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
Random
Footballguy
I have 500 shares @ 15.51
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
When are you looking to sell? I'm thinking the middle of January.
David Dodds
Administrator
I just bought FCG today - 500 shares at $17.80. I am encouraged by this report:
Natural Gas Report
Most people read this report and see record storage levels. But there are a few nuggets hidden in this report that give me a lot of optimism that Natural Gas could take off:
- Based on the National Weather Service’s degree-day data, temperatures in the lower 48 States during the week were, on average, about 4 degrees cooler than normal and 6 degrees cooler than last year’s levels
- The implied net injection of 18 Bcf was 53 Bcf, or 75 percent, below last year’s net injection of 71 Bcf and 70 percent below the 5-year average (2004-2008) injection of 60 Bcf for the same report week. Cooler-than-normal temperatures possibly contributed to the below-normal rate of injections during the report week. Robust levels of gas in storage also likely contributed to the below-normal injections, as some pipeline companies required their interruptible storage customers to draw down working gas levels as some storage facilities approach capacity.
- According to the EIA article entitled, Arctic Oil and Natural Gas Potential, released on October 19, Arctic oil and natural gas resources will be considerably more risky and time-consuming to develop than comparable deposits found elsewhere in the world. The Northern Hemisphere region (Arctic), located north of the Arctic Circle, could hold about 22 percent of the world’s undiscovered, technically recoverable, conventional oil and gas resources, based on the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimate. The article discusses obstacles to Arctic oil and natural gas production, including cost, political conflict, and environmental impact.
My View: Colder winter starting now plus so much in storage will have Natural Gas Companies injecting less into the system. This could change the storage dynamic pretty quickly if this continues for the next few months. I think this ETF is just getting going here.
Natural Gas Report
Most people read this report and see record storage levels. But there are a few nuggets hidden in this report that give me a lot of optimism that Natural Gas could take off:
- Based on the National Weather Service’s degree-day data, temperatures in the lower 48 States during the week were, on average, about 4 degrees cooler than normal and 6 degrees cooler than last year’s levels
- The implied net injection of 18 Bcf was 53 Bcf, or 75 percent, below last year’s net injection of 71 Bcf and 70 percent below the 5-year average (2004-2008) injection of 60 Bcf for the same report week. Cooler-than-normal temperatures possibly contributed to the below-normal rate of injections during the report week. Robust levels of gas in storage also likely contributed to the below-normal injections, as some pipeline companies required their interruptible storage customers to draw down working gas levels as some storage facilities approach capacity.
- According to the EIA article entitled, Arctic Oil and Natural Gas Potential, released on October 19, Arctic oil and natural gas resources will be considerably more risky and time-consuming to develop than comparable deposits found elsewhere in the world. The Northern Hemisphere region (Arctic), located north of the Arctic Circle, could hold about 22 percent of the world’s undiscovered, technically recoverable, conventional oil and gas resources, based on the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimate. The article discusses obstacles to Arctic oil and natural gas production, including cost, political conflict, and environmental impact.
My View: Colder winter starting now plus so much in storage will have Natural Gas Companies injecting less into the system. This could change the storage dynamic pretty quickly if this continues for the next few months. I think this ETF is just getting going here.
The Ref
Footballguy
+1 for 100 shares.
The Ref
Footballguy
+1 - 400 @ $15.53. Also 100 shares of UPL @ $48.65.Nat Gas geting pounded today - might be time to buy on the dip.
Norman Einstein
Footballguy
long PBR
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I'm more of a Bud Select guy.
The Ref
Footballguy
Whats your medium term price? I think $22 might bein the cards by winter.
siffoin
Footballguy
Couple of thoughts before I close up for the weekend.
#1: I believe we're at an important inflection point in the market. Doing my best to come up with targets- I have 2.
a) That we begin to rocket higher from here till sometime towards the end of Nov-Mid December. The SP500 projection I have for this would be somewhere around 1250-1300. After that the market will begin to fall probably dropping about 50%+.
b) is that the market begins to make a correction soon. Something like a 15% correction which would put the SP500 somewhere around 920-940.
I think I'll have a good idea which way we'll go 2 weeks from today...or sooner.
Since I'm a trend trader all I can say is the trend is UP...so I'm leaning that way at least for now. BUT I also noticed that MANY MANY bears capitulated this week, which can often be seen as a top. However, I wouldn't make any investments based upon these thoughts. It's just for fun and your entertainment. A fearless forecast, that you can come back and either mock or crown me for.
2) I'm working my way into what I'm going to call a "Quadfolio". This is an easy diversified portfolio, for LT investors. Actively participating in 4 primary ETFs. The SPY (Sp500), GLD (gold), USO (Oil) and FXE (Euro/currency). With the "Quadfolio" divided equally into 25% segments invested in each and trend trading them off of daily signals on both the long and short side. So if you had a portfolio of $10k...you'd invest $2500 in the SPY, $2500 in GLD, $2500 in USO and $2500 in FXE. (note: this quadfolio concept isn't originally mine...but I latched onto the concept and plugged it into my system, tweaked it and show outstanding results and it is a lot easier than looking at 50+ different ETFs)
Here's my thoughts on this:
a) I want things that will move. I'm pretty sure the SP500, Gold, Oil and the dollar/euro are going to move...up and down. I don't necessarily care which way.
b) it's an easy diversified portfolio
c) In backtesting the strategy...overall gains are about 5% per month...in a LT portfolio I'll take that.
Since the SPY, GLD and FXE are in strong daily uptrends...I'll have to wait for a new signal to enter the positions. USO did offer a buy signal last week at $40.45 I'm long USO in the Quadfolio there. In addition, SLV triggered a buy signal earlier this week...so I took a portion of the GLD and bought SLV. I'm long SLV around $17.40. I may look into writing puts on the SPY, GLD and FXE next week just to have a position.
Finally for LT...I like water. For MT- I hate the home builders. For ST- I'm lost....just day trading futs.
Have a good weekend.
#1: I believe we're at an important inflection point in the market. Doing my best to come up with targets- I have 2.
a) That we begin to rocket higher from here till sometime towards the end of Nov-Mid December. The SP500 projection I have for this would be somewhere around 1250-1300. After that the market will begin to fall probably dropping about 50%+.
b) is that the market begins to make a correction soon. Something like a 15% correction which would put the SP500 somewhere around 920-940.
I think I'll have a good idea which way we'll go 2 weeks from today...or sooner.
Since I'm a trend trader all I can say is the trend is UP...so I'm leaning that way at least for now. BUT I also noticed that MANY MANY bears capitulated this week, which can often be seen as a top. However, I wouldn't make any investments based upon these thoughts. It's just for fun and your entertainment. A fearless forecast, that you can come back and either mock or crown me for.
2) I'm working my way into what I'm going to call a "Quadfolio". This is an easy diversified portfolio, for LT investors. Actively participating in 4 primary ETFs. The SPY (Sp500), GLD (gold), USO (Oil) and FXE (Euro/currency). With the "Quadfolio" divided equally into 25% segments invested in each and trend trading them off of daily signals on both the long and short side. So if you had a portfolio of $10k...you'd invest $2500 in the SPY, $2500 in GLD, $2500 in USO and $2500 in FXE. (note: this quadfolio concept isn't originally mine...but I latched onto the concept and plugged it into my system, tweaked it and show outstanding results and it is a lot easier than looking at 50+ different ETFs)
Here's my thoughts on this:
a) I want things that will move. I'm pretty sure the SP500, Gold, Oil and the dollar/euro are going to move...up and down. I don't necessarily care which way.
b) it's an easy diversified portfolio
c) In backtesting the strategy...overall gains are about 5% per month...in a LT portfolio I'll take that.
Since the SPY, GLD and FXE are in strong daily uptrends...I'll have to wait for a new signal to enter the positions. USO did offer a buy signal last week at $40.45 I'm long USO in the Quadfolio there. In addition, SLV triggered a buy signal earlier this week...so I took a portion of the GLD and bought SLV. I'm long SLV around $17.40. I may look into writing puts on the SPY, GLD and FXE next week just to have a position.
Finally for LT...I like water. For MT- I hate the home builders. For ST- I'm lost....just day trading futs.
Have a good weekend.
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Is anyone here going to long solar energy stocks? in particular FSLR - I want to buy FSLR but I'm trying to decide when the right time to buy. Maybe it'll drop in price in the next couple of months.
I would like some opinions on this one.
I would like some opinions on this one.
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The Ref
Footballguy
Siff -
When you get back from the weekend, I'm very interested to hear why the next two weeks are such a turning point? Also interesting is why you think it will correct to the 950 area or go higher and then correct to the 650 area and retest the March lows?
Arent there a lot of stops allong the way back down to 650? Is this a technical thing or do you think by the market going higher we will enter some sort of 29-32 chart pattern?
I'm curious. You were dead on about the markets when things were at it's worst late last year early this year so I'm taking notice.
When you get back from the weekend, I'm very interested to hear why the next two weeks are such a turning point? Also interesting is why you think it will correct to the 950 area or go higher and then correct to the 650 area and retest the March lows?
Arent there a lot of stops allong the way back down to 650? Is this a technical thing or do you think by the market going higher we will enter some sort of 29-32 chart pattern?
I'm curious. You were dead on about the markets when things were at it's worst late last year early this year so I'm taking notice.
The Ref
Footballguy
Also - I'm still 30ish % cash so I'm a little spooked by the October factor, but I'm curious how the market can fall so far in a period of such money printing.
The Ref
Footballguy
You didnt get much love here did you?I guess you could buy some gold/silver with it. If the other 90% of you is that cash exposed 10% is the right number for you.my 2 cents.
The Ref
Footballguy
Not many opinions of Solar in here. That said a lot of us are long Nat Gas and Oil.
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Curious as well ... and am also interested in Ref's question here.Siff - it may go without saying, but many thanks for your insight here on the boards. Always results in good discussion.
siffoin
Footballguy
I'm long TAN since Feb around $6.00. It is a solar ETF. FSLR is the largest holding...about 12% of the fund. TAN is trading around $9.50. In a daily timeframe it is a BUY however, it has been trading in a range since June. Maybe scale into the entries if this is a long term hold. If it breaks below $8.90...that would project to a lower price maybe between $7.00-$7.50.
