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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

I sold some positions in my other stocks today too. I will update my current situation later tonight. Taking a bloodbath in those stocks, but I have just soured on even owning these right now while it seems like easier money can be had dealing in the oil ETFs.

 
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Previous realized gains/losses = -$420

Last two day moves:

Sold 900 shares of AEA @ 1.87 (Avg Cost = 1.95) - Lost $108

Sold 850 shares of BNHNA @ 2.31 (Avg Cost = 2.55) - Lost $204

Sold 1,000 shares of BAMM @ 2.55 (Avg Cost = 2.81) - Lost $260

Sold 1400 shares of FREE @ 1.46 (Avg Cost = 1.57) - Lost $154

Sold 2,000 shares of GKK @ 1.22 (Avg Cost = 1.45) - Lost $460

Sold 1,000 shares of GGAL @ 2.04 (Avg Cost = 2.28) - Lost $240

Sold 1,000 shares of QXM @ 2.65 (Avg Cost = 2.78) - Lost $130

Sold 4,000 shares of ZQK @ 1.67 (Avg Cost = 1.73) - Lost $240

Sold 3,630 shares of RUTH @ 1.30 (Avg Cost = 1.48) - Lost $653.40

Sold 1,000 shares of SIMO @ 2.40 (Avg Cost = 2.66) - Lost $260



Last two day realized losses: $2,709.40

Total realized losses to date = $3,129.40

I now hold the following positions:

1,000 shares of ACFN @ 2.20 (Current value = 2.12)

1,000 shares of ACTS @ 1.70 (Current value = 1.40)

1,000 shares of AEHR @ 2.27 (Current value = 1.93)

2,000 shares of AHR @ 2.19 (current value = 1.96)

150 shares of BNHNA @ 2.55 (current value = 2.30)

3,440 shares of FREE @ 1.57 (current value = 1.43)

1,000 shares of KPPC @ 2.58 (current value = 2.11)

1,000 shares of NNBR @ 2.87 (current value = 2.38)

370 shares of RUTH @ 1.48 (current value = 1.32)

1,000 shares of SOAP @ 2.98 (current value = 2.55)

1,000 shares of TXCO @ 2.29 (current value = 1.83)

1,100 shares of VCI @ 1.47 (current value = 1.44)

I paid $23,197.10 for these stocks and they are currently worth $20,127.40 for an unrealized loss of $3,069.70. I am hoping I can sell these on high points over the next few days and end this trainwreck.



 
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To be fair, your timing for jumping back in was not good in retrospect.

To be critical, I don't think you can pick stocks based just on the criteria you used. A lot of the sectors you grabbed up are performing poorly as a sector. I think your sort criteria were fine, but then you should have eliminated sectors that will perform poorly (including oil as this is essentially a day-trade experiment) and then evaluated each stock remaining on an indivdual basis. Personally. other than gold producers and shipping, I'm pretty scared of investing right now.

 
To be fair, your timing for jumping back in was not good in retrospect.To be critical, I don't think you can pick stocks based just on the criteria you used. A lot of the sectors you grabbed up are performing poorly as a sector. I think your sort criteria were fine, but then you should have eliminated sectors that will perform poorly (including oil as this is essentially a day-trade experiment) and then evaluated each stock remaining on an individual basis. Personally. other than gold producers and shipping, I'm pretty scared of investing right now.
Agree with everything you said here. My timing into the market was horrible especially for stocks that have been underperforming for months. And after being in it a bit, I just don't feel comfortable with many companies right now performing even ok in this economy. I have sufficiently divested myself from a major downturn now (and hold just $20K worth of stock value) so I think I can manipulate these last holdings to a smaller loss going forward. Lesson learned the hard way I guess.
 
and out with all 10,000 shares at 2.93. Damn this is like taking candy from a baby here.Profit = 5000 (.23) + 5000 (.13) = $1,800. Not bad at all for doing absolutely nothing.
What's your gameplan when, for the first time, you end the day down? Or do you have a set price target where you will sell each day?
I think oil will go higher in the longterm. If it's down, I will just hold (or add shares) until it rebounds. That's why these trades feel right to me. I can't think of another stock that I believe will be up 60% by year's end. But oil futures are trading up 65+% at year's end right now. So I buy on the dips and if it rebounds fast enough I take the profit. I have just been lucky that I have been able to do these transactions all within a day. Some will likely take weeks to cover going forward, but I still expect these oil transactions will keep making me money.
Nobody answered this before, but if oil futures are trading so much higher, why can't you go short the futures contract, take the cash, buy oil, and lock in a profit? Do I misunderstand the basics of such a trade? What am I missing?
 
To be fair, your timing for jumping back in was not good in retrospect.To be critical, I don't think you can pick stocks based just on the criteria you used. A lot of the sectors you grabbed up are performing poorly as a sector. I think your sort criteria were fine, but then you should have eliminated sectors that will perform poorly (including oil as this is essentially a day-trade experiment) and then evaluated each stock remaining on an indivdual basis. Personally. other than gold producers and shipping, I'm pretty scared of investing right now.
:)
 
and out with all 10,000 shares at 2.93. Damn this is like taking candy from a baby here.Profit = 5000 (.23) + 5000 (.13) = $1,800. Not bad at all for doing absolutely nothing.
What's your gameplan when, for the first time, you end the day down? Or do you have a set price target where you will sell each day?
I think oil will go higher in the longterm. If it's down, I will just hold (or add shares) until it rebounds. That's why these trades feel right to me. I can't think of another stock that I believe will be up 60% by year's end. But oil futures are trading up 65+% at year's end right now. So I buy on the dips and if it rebounds fast enough I take the profit. I have just been lucky that I have been able to do these transactions all within a day. Some will likely take weeks to cover going forward, but I still expect these oil transactions will keep making me money.
Nobody answered this before, but if oil futures are trading so much higher, why can't you go short the futures contract, take the cash, buy oil, and lock in a profit? Do I misunderstand the basics of such a trade? What am I missing?
Since oil is a commodity, I think you would have to be willing to take physical custody of the product oil. Hence all of us trading in these ETFs instead so we don't have a pile of oil to sit next to our piles of pennies. But I think these future contracts are the legitimate guesses to what oil will be in 10 to 12 months. I think this is a no-brainer way to make money in 2009. Buy and wait. Or buy/sell repeatedly with an overall plan of oil being up in the future.
 
and out with all 10,000 shares at 2.93. Damn this is like taking candy from a baby here.Profit = 5000 (.23) + 5000 (.13) = $1,800. Not bad at all for doing absolutely nothing.
What's your gameplan when, for the first time, you end the day down? Or do you have a set price target where you will sell each day?
I think oil will go higher in the longterm. If it's down, I will just hold (or add shares) until it rebounds. That's why these trades feel right to me. I can't think of another stock that I believe will be up 60% by year's end. But oil futures are trading up 65+% at year's end right now. So I buy on the dips and if it rebounds fast enough I take the profit. I have just been lucky that I have been able to do these transactions all within a day. Some will likely take weeks to cover going forward, but I still expect these oil transactions will keep making me money.
Nobody answered this before, but if oil futures are trading so much higher, why can't you go short the futures contract, take the cash, buy oil, and lock in a profit? Do I misunderstand the basics of such a trade? What am I missing?
Since oil is a commodity, I think you would have to be willing to take physical custody of the product oil. Hence all of us trading in these ETFs instead so we don't have a pile of oil to sit next to our piles of pennies. But I think these future contracts are the legitimate guesses to what oil will be in 10 to 12 months. I think this is a no-brainer way to make money in 2009. Buy and wait. Or buy/sell repeatedly with an overall plan of oil being up in the future.
Interesting. FWIW, I like this strategy much better than the previous one.
 
just added 10,000 shares of DXO at 2.86. A little unsure where this is going today, but pre-market was at 3.17

 
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damn got greedy here and did not pull the trigger to sell when it hit 2.97. I just bought another 5,000 at 2.86. I have set a sale at 2.96 this time

 
I don't like the fact you jumped into all your positions blindly at the same time. The market still has some downward movement to go.

 
sold half of my DXO (10,000 shares) at 2.91 looking to sell the other half at 2.95/2.96

10,000 DXO profit = 2.91 - 2.85 (avg cost) = $600

holding 10,000 DXO at avg cost = 2.85. Will add shares at 2.80 and sell at 2.95

 
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and now out of DXO at 2.95. Profit on these 10,000 shares = 0.10 x 10,000 = $1,000

So today I have made $2,040 daytrading....been a nice morning.

 
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Back in - bought 10,000 DXO at 2.83
:) This is highly entertaining please keep us posted on the transactions and good luck. I was considering buying HOU earlier today on the TSX but ended up not. The volume on the double and triple ETFs is unbelievable.
 
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and out with all 10,000 shares at 2.93. Damn this is like taking candy from a baby here.Profit = 5000 (.23) + 5000 (.13) = $1,800. Not bad at all for doing absolutely nothing.
What's your gameplan when, for the first time, you end the day down? Or do you have a set price target where you will sell each day?
I think oil will go higher in the longterm. If it's down, I will just hold (or add shares) until it rebounds. That's why these trades feel right to me. I can't think of another stock that I believe will be up 60% by year's end. But oil futures are trading up 65+% at year's end right now. So I buy on the dips and if it rebounds fast enough I take the profit. I have just been lucky that I have been able to do these transactions all within a day. Some will likely take weeks to cover going forward, but I still expect these oil transactions will keep making me money.
Nobody answered this before, but if oil futures are trading so much higher, why can't you go short the futures contract, take the cash, buy oil, and lock in a profit? Do I misunderstand the basics of such a trade? What am I missing?
That's a good question...I'm trying to figure it out.First of all you'll also need a sizable portfolio.No broker will link the trade together...so margin, carry costs etc may vary.OIL and CL isn't a perfect hedge so if CL moves up 10%...OIL may be up a little less or a little more. I've never tracked the two in a trade like this. Because of that it is difficult to really look at the risk profile. It seems pretty good...almost too good to be true. The bet is that there is a lot of premium baked into the price of further out (Dec) crude contracts in relation to the current contract. That premium will burn off as we move through time. So even a large + move in Crude would not effect the Shorted contract as much because of the baked in premium...OIL on the other hand has no such premium attached...so a + move is $. A - move in Crude would cause the Shorted contract's premium to burn at a much faster rate...probably moreso that the drop in OIL...so a -10% move in Crude will probably cause a 15-20% drop in the Dec futures contract while OIL might only drop 10%.This is a very sophisticated type of play. And not for the feint at heart. It requires a considerable amount of resolve to see it through. There is significant risk...I'm just not sure where it is...but is the kind of trade that you'll recognize the risk when you've lost $10k on the play. Then it will be plane as day.
 
For those that care, here is what I am looking at to decide to buy and sell:

I track 6 oil related stocks all on Google portfolio that shows real time updates. As of right now, these show the following:

OIL 20.03 (-0.34%)

USO 30.01 (-0.56%)

UCO 11.18 (-0.80%) - Trades as a double ETF

DXO 2.86 (-1.72%) - Trades as a double ETF

SCO 35.32 (+0.60%) - Trades as a double short ETF

DTO 173.17 (+0.23%) - Trades as a double short ETF

Normalizing this data yields the following:

OIL (-0.34%)

USO (-0.56%)

UCO (-0.40%)

DXO (-0.86%)

SCO (-0.30%)

DTO (-0.12%)

so based on this, I expect DXO to increase in the short term to normalize against the rest of these ETFs.

 
Back in - bought 10,000 DXO at 2.83
:thumbup: This is highly entertaining please keep us posted on the transactions and good luck. I was considering buying HOU earlier today on the TSX but ended up not. The volume on the double and triple ETFs is unbelievable.
I second that. As with the NFL wagering thread, I take comfort in seeing others taking bigger risks than myself. I'm playing oil only in so much as I have recent investments in OIL and VLO. I'm holding for the long term and probably shouldn't be checking it every hour like I am, but it's good entertainment.
 
David - is it annoying to have to track all these moves, and then report them for tax purposes? Or is there a program that does everything for you?

Can we just all give you money to start a mini oil hedge fund?

 
David - is it annoying to have to track all these moves, and then report them for tax purposes? Or is there a program that does everything for you?Can we just all give you money to start a mini oil hedge fund?
The trading companies all spit out the tax stuff so that's not an issue. Just attach the sheets to my taxes and enter the net number on the tax forms.I am not interested in doing a hedge fund on oil stocks at all. I am just semi-bored because I have all this money to buy a house, but the California economy is so upside down that I really should wait at least 6-12 months before buying. So instead of having this money in a CD drawing next to nothing, I decided to try and have it work for me a little. If things keep going well, maybe I will just pay cash for my house purchase. That would be kind of cool.
 
I just added another 5,000 DXO at 2.84. I think it's ready to go north soon.
I'm waiting.
We are all reading the same news. The storage issue is temporary though (at most another couple of months in my opinion) and already factored into $34/barrel oil.Read some of these words on this website and tell me honestly that you are not long on oil related stocks:

Life After the Oil Crash

Some scary doomsday stuff at this site, but I agree with almost all of it. The world economy is so dependent on a resource that is rapidly diminishing. New projects will replace "easy" oil assuming these projects are invested in now. But guess what? At oil below $40/barrel, investment in future projects draws down considerably.

There is only so much oil. The price has been artificially pushed down due to everyone over-producing while the price was $100+. That in turn stagnated the economies and got people/companies to start conserving. OPEC was way too slow turning down the valves which has led to over-storage/floating oil tankers, etc. And yes that kind of news can and probably will drive oil lower short-term. But look what happened the second a conflict (Gaza strip) happened. The price jumped very quickly. Most of the nations that have the oil reserves count on oil at $50+/barrel to balance their government's budget. These low oil prices will not stay long for much longer. Whether it's a war, OPECs cuts, or simply the speculators the price will generally be heading upwards going forward.

I think the small pullback at market's end here has more to do with the many people preferring not to hold any kinds of positions over the holiday weekend.

 
David - is it annoying to have to track all these moves, and then report them for tax purposes? Or is there a program that does everything for you?Can we just all give you money to start a mini oil hedge fund?
The trading companies all spit out the tax stuff so that's not an issue. Just attach the sheets to my taxes and enter the net number on the tax forms.I am not interested in doing a hedge fund on oil stocks at all. I am just semi-bored because I have all this money to buy a house, but the California economy is so upside down that I really should wait at least 6-12 months before buying. So instead of having this money in a CD drawing next to nothing, I decided to try and have it work for me a little. If things keep going well, maybe I will just pay cash for my house purchase. That would be kind of cool.
jealous
 
Let's say I have $5k that I want to buy oil related stock/ETFs with and want to hold them for about 6 months. I may make about 2-3 other trades per month with this account.

Suggestions on who to go with to open this thing up? I don't want to pay a bunch of $$ for the account and trades.

 
Let's say I have $5k that I want to buy oil related stock/ETFs with and want to hold them for about 6 months. I may make about 2-3 other trades per month with this account.Suggestions on who to go with to open this thing up? I don't want to pay a bunch of $ for the account and trades.
Open the account with Zecco.com and you get 10 free trades per month. Each additional trade costs $4.50The ETFs that are leveraged (DXO, UCO) definitely leak on down days so not sure they make great sense buying and holding that long. I think I would stick with USO or OIL for a mostly buy and hold position.
 
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Let's say I have $5k that I want to buy oil related stock/ETFs with and want to hold them for about 6 months. I may make about 2-3 other trades per month with this account.Suggestions on who to go with to open this thing up? I don't want to pay a bunch of $ for the account and trades.
Open the account with Zecco.com and you get 10 free trades per month. Each additional trade costs $4.50The ETFs that are leveraged (DXO, UCO) definitely leak on down days so not sure they make great sense buying and holding that long. I think I would stick with USO or OIL for a mostly buy and hold position.
Thanks Dodds! I just opened my account with them. It was really painless.
 
I just added another 5,000 DXO at 2.84. I think it's ready to go north soon.
I'm waiting.
We are all reading the same news. The storage issue is temporary though (at most another couple of months in my opinion) and already factored into $34/barrel oil.Read some of these words on this website and tell me honestly that you are not long on oil related stocks:

Life After the Oil Crash

Some scary doomsday stuff at this site, but I agree with almost all of it. The world economy is so dependent on a resource that is rapidly diminishing. New projects will replace "easy" oil assuming these projects are invested in now. But guess what? At oil below $40/barrel, investment in future projects draws down considerably.

There is only so much oil. The price has been artificially pushed down due to everyone over-producing while the price was $100+. That in turn stagnated the economies and got people/companies to start conserving. OPEC was way too slow turning down the valves which has led to over-storage/floating oil tankers, etc. And yes that kind of news can and probably will drive oil lower short-term. But look what happened the second a conflict (Gaza strip) happened. The price jumped very quickly. Most of the nations that have the oil reserves count on oil at $50+/barrel to balance their government's budget. These low oil prices will not stay long for much longer. Whether it's a war, OPECs cuts, or simply the speculators the price will generally be heading upwards going forward.

I think the small pullback at market's end here has more to do with the many people preferring not to hold any kinds of positions over the holiday weekend.
Oh, I'm with you all the way. I just think short term there is more downside.
 
Oh, I'm with you all the way. I just think short term there is more downside.
I love all the conflicting news regarding short-term oil (storage concerns lower oil, OPEC cuts raise oil, economy concerns lower oil, lack of longterm oil investment raises oil, etc). It basically makes this extremely volatile and the reason I can day-trade so easily. Especially knowing that the futures price is 60% higher in about a year.
 
Oh, I'm with you all the way. I just think short term there is more downside.
I love all the conflicting news regarding short-term oil (storage concerns lower oil, OPEC cuts raise oil, economy concerns lower oil, lack of longterm oil investment raises oil, etc). It basically makes this extremely volatile and the reason I can day-trade so easily. Especially knowing that the futures price is 60% higher in about a year.
But David this is a bit misleading. There is premium attached to the Dec Futures contract. But that in no way means that Crude is going to trade up to that Dec level. As time passes the premium burn on Crude futures will accelerate towards the actual price.Now with all of that said...I do believe an investment in OIL be rewarded. But there is no way of knowing exactly when...certainly not based on the premium attached to Futs contracts.

I can tell you this currently OIL is bearish...and not until we have a weekly close ABOVE $29.50 would it indicate the bottom has been reached and the trend of OIL has shifted from bearish to bullish. But right now...it looks like there is more downside...how much? I have no idea.

 
siffoin said:
David Dodds said:
St. Louis Bob said:
Oh, I'm with you all the way. I just think short term there is more downside.
I love all the conflicting news regarding short-term oil (storage concerns lower oil, OPEC cuts raise oil, economy concerns lower oil, lack of longterm oil investment raises oil, etc). It basically makes this extremely volatile and the reason I can day-trade so easily. Especially knowing that the futures price is 60% higher in about a year.
But David this is a bit misleading. There is premium attached to the Dec Futures contract. But that in no way means that Crude is going to trade up to that Dec level. As time passes the premium burn on Crude futures will accelerate towards the actual price.Now with all of that said...I do believe an investment in OIL be rewarded. But there is no way of knowing exactly when...certainly not based on the premium attached to Futs contracts.

I can tell you this currently OIL is bearish...and not until we have a weekly close ABOVE $29.50 would it indicate the bottom has been reached and the trend of OIL has shifted from bearish to bullish. But right now...it looks like there is more downside...how much? I have no idea.
I think in the short term while the bad economic news is still rolling in that OIL will stay down around $30 - $35 with a lot of volatility. I just don't see it pushing too far under $30, as that would be incredibly low based on demand IMO. That's why I'm looking for a long-term investment in OIL, as I see it rebounding to $60 pretty easily at some point in the next 1.5 years. The demand will ratchet up even with the world economy in the doldrums, and OPEC will do what's in their power to move that price higher so that they can take more profits, even at the cost of cutting production.My prediciton: OIL to $45 by Jun 15

 
siffoin said:
But David this is a bit misleading. There is premium attached to the Dec Futures contract. But that in no way means that Crude is going to trade up to that Dec level. As time passes the premium burn on Crude futures will accelerate towards the actual price.
If you are willing to take physical possession of the barrels of oil, you could sell at these higher future prices right now. So these futures contracts are trading at these levels right now.
 
I think in the short term while the bad economic news is still rolling in that OIL will stay down around $30 - $35 with a lot of volatility. I just don't see it pushing too far under $30, as that would be incredibly low based on demand IMO. That's why I'm looking for a long-term investment in OIL, as I see it rebounding to $60 pretty easily at some point in the next 1.5 years. The demand will ratchet up even with the world economy in the doldrums, and OPEC will do what's in their power to move that price higher so that they can take more profits, even at the cost of cutting production.My prediciton: OIL to $45 by Jun 15
I agree with this assessment. I expect we will see $55 oil by mid-summer this year
 
OIL 20.03 (-0.34%)USO 30.01 (-0.56%)UCO 11.18 (-0.80%) - Trades as a double ETFDXO 2.86 (-1.72%) - Trades as a double ETFSCO 35.32 (+0.60%) - Trades as a double short ETFDTO 173.17 (+0.23%) - Trades as a double short ETF
I didn't know I can short an entire sector or indexes using ETFs. I'm placing a bonanza of orders tonight. :thumbup:
 
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Hating myself right now as I was inches from selling all oil stocks at Friday's close (even for small losses) because of the extended weekend. Of course Gaza conflict ends, Russia/Ukraine issue solved and supply issues continue to make the news. Pre-market oil was down big, but I was able to time things decently here and get out with scraps of my shirt left.

I dumped all of my DXO at $2.60 this morning and was happy to get that price. I bought 500 shares of DTO (oil short) at $175.75

I will calculate this monster loss in a minute here.

10,000 shares at -$0.23 = - $2,300

5,000 shares at -$0.24 = - $1,200

for a total loss of -$3,500......OUCH

 
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Weird day today as I expected DTO/SCO to take off, but finally some movement to recoup some of my losses by holding through the weekend.

Out of SCO at 37.00 for a healthy profit. About to sell on DTO for a gain too.

Profit on SCO = 500 shares x 1.80 = $900

 
and out of DTO at 181.90 for a profit of $6.15 a share.

profit = 500 x 6.15 = $3,075 ......SWEET. Makes taking that loss on DXO so much easier today

 
I still think oil is heading down (and the shorts up), but I wanted to bank the win here to offset the loss of stupidly holding on to DXO through the weekend. I expect tomorrow will be super volatile with the storage report due out and everything trading to the new months prices.

 
Hating myself right now as I was inches from selling all oil stocks at Friday's close (even for small losses) because of the extended weekend. Of course Gaza conflict ends, Russia/Ukraine issue solved and supply issues continue to make the news. Pre-market oil was down big, but I was able to time things decently here and get out with scraps of my shirt left. I dumped all of my DXO at $2.60 this morning and was happy to get that price. I bought 500 shares of DTO (oil short) at $175.75I will calculate this monster loss in a minute here.10,000 shares at -$0.23 = - $2,300 5,000 shares at -$0.24 = - $1,200for a total loss of -$3,500......OUCH
Mad props for putting yourself out there; I don't know anybody that admits to their losses or mistakes, all you ever hear about is the home runs.
 

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