madd futher
Footballguy
PPR makes a very significant difference with RB rankings. Obviously these are the extremes, but here are some projections that I have for my tier 3 guys:
Turner: 1230 yds rushing, 10 catches for 70 yds for a total of 1300 yds and 12 TDs = 192 pts in reg scoring vs 202 in ppr.
Greene: 1300 yds rushing, 9 recepts fo 50 yds, for a total of 1350 yds and 9 TDs + 189 pts in reg scoring, 198 in ppr.
R Bush: 550 yds rushing, 60 catches for 450 yds,; a total of 1000 yds and 8 TDs = 148 FPs in regular, but 208 FPs in PPR.
So Reggie Bush gains 50 fantasy points on both of these guys to outscore them both in PPR according to my projections.
Compare this to my tier 2 guy Pierre Thomas:
Thomas: 1000 yds rushing, 38 recepts, 300 yds receiving,11 TDs, 1300 total yds = 196 Std FPs; 234 PPR FPs.
So Turner and Greene stand pretty even with Thomas in regular scoring, but he outscores them in PPR by OVER 30 pts.
SO RATHER THAN JUST RANKING THE RBs, I prefer the tiering approach.
The 1st tier of ppr RBs are six deep with Chris Johnson 1st, S Jackson last - and even though I have him projected in a virtual tie with Gore, I'd rather have Gore by a big margin. (because of the workload S Jax has to bear in that offense, his back is likely to break down again this year.) I maintain you could put Gore, MJD, Peterson, and Rice in just about any order you chose and not lose much production. I was lucky enough to get the #5 spot in a FBG/FPC league and I assume that I'll get either Ray Rice or Gore and I will be happy with either one. I have this group projected between a high of 334 PPR FPs (C J) to a low of 280 (S Jax).
There is a HUGE gap between the 1st tier and the second tier of 7 RBs - again in the order of your preference: Charles, Grant, Mendenhall, Moreno, Thomas, Wells and Dengelo Williams. This group projects between 217 FPs and 238 FPs in PPR.
My third tier consists of 9 players and projects rather tightly between 196 and 206 PPR FPs: Addai, Benson, Best, R Bush, F Jones, Greene, Matthews, Stewart, and Turner comprise this group.
Tier 4 is Bradshaw, R Brown, Forsett, Harrison, McCoy, and Ricky Williams brings the total to 28 RBs through the 1st 4 tiers (And again, with this narrow of a differentiation, the order of preference comes down to other factors such as risk and upside).
A note about Matt Forte, who is missing from these projections:
I neglected to mention that I intentionally have NOT done any solid projections for the Chicago Bears. I've yet to define the distribution of targets in the Martz offense. Although I'm warming to the idea of Hester being the top dog in PPR, my "certainty factor" is lacking. I took a stab at preliminary projections on my own and compared them to 5 other projection models that I get from other sources who I respect. The team with the highest degree of variance was "da Bears", suggesting far too much uncertainty. This uncertainty extends to the RB situation in Chicago as well; I'm also taking a wait-and-see approach to Forte/ Chester Taylor.
When I am faaced with too much variance among other expert models as well as my own, I see a big red flag and I have to be honest about the degree of personal bias underlying the numbers. Projections are supposed to give clarity to my view by minimizing personal bias - so when I see too much variance, I punt! I started projecting numbers for teams about 2 weeks ago. When you get down beyond the 1st 30 RBs or so, the projections become too fuzzy this early in the season and I defer till later in a category for "all other". The whole Bears team is "wild card" status, and Forte is the only RB that I have ranked in my head somewhere in the lower end of the top 25 that I feel quite uncomfortable about.
I'm hoping that early training camp will shed some more light on the Bears situation and that I can plug in the Bears projections just before most of my drafts, which start about August 1st. But I am fully prepared to wait through the pre-season until my September FBG/FPC draft for a clearer idea, so I can take a more solid position on the Bears as a whole. While I can see Forte somewhere in the top 25 RBs, I'd hate to project him anywhere right now.
Edited to add the obvious: Your comments are very welcome.
Turner: 1230 yds rushing, 10 catches for 70 yds for a total of 1300 yds and 12 TDs = 192 pts in reg scoring vs 202 in ppr.
Greene: 1300 yds rushing, 9 recepts fo 50 yds, for a total of 1350 yds and 9 TDs + 189 pts in reg scoring, 198 in ppr.
R Bush: 550 yds rushing, 60 catches for 450 yds,; a total of 1000 yds and 8 TDs = 148 FPs in regular, but 208 FPs in PPR.
So Reggie Bush gains 50 fantasy points on both of these guys to outscore them both in PPR according to my projections.
Compare this to my tier 2 guy Pierre Thomas:
Thomas: 1000 yds rushing, 38 recepts, 300 yds receiving,11 TDs, 1300 total yds = 196 Std FPs; 234 PPR FPs.
So Turner and Greene stand pretty even with Thomas in regular scoring, but he outscores them in PPR by OVER 30 pts.
SO RATHER THAN JUST RANKING THE RBs, I prefer the tiering approach.
The 1st tier of ppr RBs are six deep with Chris Johnson 1st, S Jackson last - and even though I have him projected in a virtual tie with Gore, I'd rather have Gore by a big margin. (because of the workload S Jax has to bear in that offense, his back is likely to break down again this year.) I maintain you could put Gore, MJD, Peterson, and Rice in just about any order you chose and not lose much production. I was lucky enough to get the #5 spot in a FBG/FPC league and I assume that I'll get either Ray Rice or Gore and I will be happy with either one. I have this group projected between a high of 334 PPR FPs (C J) to a low of 280 (S Jax).
There is a HUGE gap between the 1st tier and the second tier of 7 RBs - again in the order of your preference: Charles, Grant, Mendenhall, Moreno, Thomas, Wells and Dengelo Williams. This group projects between 217 FPs and 238 FPs in PPR.
My third tier consists of 9 players and projects rather tightly between 196 and 206 PPR FPs: Addai, Benson, Best, R Bush, F Jones, Greene, Matthews, Stewart, and Turner comprise this group.
Tier 4 is Bradshaw, R Brown, Forsett, Harrison, McCoy, and Ricky Williams brings the total to 28 RBs through the 1st 4 tiers (And again, with this narrow of a differentiation, the order of preference comes down to other factors such as risk and upside).
A note about Matt Forte, who is missing from these projections:
I neglected to mention that I intentionally have NOT done any solid projections for the Chicago Bears. I've yet to define the distribution of targets in the Martz offense. Although I'm warming to the idea of Hester being the top dog in PPR, my "certainty factor" is lacking. I took a stab at preliminary projections on my own and compared them to 5 other projection models that I get from other sources who I respect. The team with the highest degree of variance was "da Bears", suggesting far too much uncertainty. This uncertainty extends to the RB situation in Chicago as well; I'm also taking a wait-and-see approach to Forte/ Chester Taylor.
When I am faaced with too much variance among other expert models as well as my own, I see a big red flag and I have to be honest about the degree of personal bias underlying the numbers. Projections are supposed to give clarity to my view by minimizing personal bias - so when I see too much variance, I punt! I started projecting numbers for teams about 2 weeks ago. When you get down beyond the 1st 30 RBs or so, the projections become too fuzzy this early in the season and I defer till later in a category for "all other". The whole Bears team is "wild card" status, and Forte is the only RB that I have ranked in my head somewhere in the lower end of the top 25 that I feel quite uncomfortable about.
I'm hoping that early training camp will shed some more light on the Bears situation and that I can plug in the Bears projections just before most of my drafts, which start about August 1st. But I am fully prepared to wait through the pre-season until my September FBG/FPC draft for a clearer idea, so I can take a more solid position on the Bears as a whole. While I can see Forte somewhere in the top 25 RBs, I'd hate to project him anywhere right now.
Edited to add the obvious: Your comments are very welcome.
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