My very early 2011 dynasty rankings (1 Viewer)

[madd futher]

My QB rankings generated a nice discussion, so I thought I'd post my very early 2011 veteran RB dynasty rankings (PPR) without commentary. Again, I'm not as interested in the exact ranking within the tiers as I am in getting the tiers right.

Tier 1

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Chris Johnson

3. Maurice Jones Drew

4. Ray Rice

5. Jamaal Charles

6. Arian Foster

7. Rashard Mendenhall

8. Darren McFadden

9. LeSean McCoy

Tier 2

10. Jonathon Stewart

11. Frank Gore

12. Ahman Bradshaw

13. Deangelo Williams

14. Jahvid Best

15. Steven Jackson

16. Michael Turner

17. Matt Forte

18. Ryan Matthews

19. Felix Jones

20. Peyton Hillis

21. Knowshon Moreno

22. LeGarrette Blount

Tier 3

23. Michael Bush

24. Ryan Grant

25. Beanie Wells

26. C J Spiller

27. Shonn Greene

28. Pierre Thomas

29. Joseph Addai

30. Cedric Benson

31. Tashard Choice

32. Reggie Bush

Tier 4

33. Danny Woodhead

34. Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis

35. Marion Barber

36. Ryan Torain

37. Ronnie Brown

38. Brandon Jacobs

39. Mike Tolbert

40. Willis McGahee

41. Marshawn Lynch

42. Tim Hightower

Tier 5

43. Chris Ivory

44. Fred Jackson

45. Donald Brown

46. Darren Sproles

47. Jason Snelling

48. Bernard Scott

49. Mike Goodson

50. Jerome Harrison

51. Rashard Jennings

52. Toby Gerhart

53. Brandon Jackson

54. James Starks

55. Kareem Huggins

56. Justin Forsett

57. Montario Hardesty

58. Leon Washington

Rentals

59. LaDanian Tomlinson

60. Ricky Williams/Thomas Jones

So let the discussion begin!

 

[pittstownkiller]

I realize that you said "very early" and I guess you've thrown some of this out there to see what sticks; but tier 5 is a mess and tier 4 doesn't warm me too much either. I know it is pretty weak of me not to give you any specifics but it is very early. OK, I'll bite, some in tier 5 might not even play next year, while some will probably be tier 3 or higher. Lynch and Jacobs also seem quite low.

 

[Kevrunner]

I think that Starks should get a nice bump up after today's performance. Looks like he has a great opportunity to be the #1 back next year for Green Bay.

 

[nlgb1]

lol yea idk how you make a set of rankings tonight, and put starks in the 50s. try again grasshopper

 

[thetman]

Starks will probably be the backup to Grant...

 

[madd futher]

Actually I had these RB rankings set for about a week now. And yes i might have put Starks higher, and before my veteran dynasty draft (after the preseason is well underway) he may well move up a ton. But he's still got Brandon Jackson and this guy named Ryan Grant to contend with for PT, as well as Kuhn for short yardage duty..... and also how much do you really trust Mike McCarthy's commitment to the running game?

Yes, he did look very good tonight...but I'm not quite ready to anoint him just yet.

 

[Go deep]

I dont think you have enough tiers.

 

[FootballGuy22]

I dont think you have enough tiers.

what he said

 

[eaglesfan7]

Rookies not included?

 

[madd futher]

It is hard enough making some sense out of ranking the veteran RBs at this stage. Layering in rookies pre-everything is an almost meaningless exercise IMO.

 

[eaglesfan7]

It is hard enough making some sense out of ranking the veteran RBs at this stage. Layering in rookies pre-everything is an almost meaningless exercise IMO.

Meaningless exercise? It's everything to know where Ingram and Williams and the others will fall.

 

[jojoh07]

appreciate the effort .

 

[grateful zed]

everyone forgets that barry sanders could return.

 

[The Great Snook]

I find it interesting that you had Ben Jarvis Green Ellis in tier 4. In my main league he was RB18 and I don't think that was with a full year as a starter. Using your tiers I would have put him as a low tier 2 or a high tier 3

 

[Go deep]

I find it interesting that you had Ben Jarvis Green Ellis in tier 4. In my main league he was RB18 and I don't think that was with a full year as a starter. Using your tiers I would have put him as a low tier 2 or a high tier 3

I actually think he has him a tier too high.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I find it interesting that you had Ben Jarvis Green Ellis in tier 4. In my main league he was RB18 and I don't think that was with a full year as a starter. Using your tiers I would have put him as a low tier 2 or a high tier 3

He isn't particularly talented. The Pats don't feed him the ball every week. He could easily be replaced by a FA or draft pick.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I find it interesting that you had Ben Jarvis Green Ellis in tier 4. In my main league he was RB18 and I don't think that was with a full year as a starter. Using your tiers I would have put him as a low tier 2 or a high tier 3

He isn't particularly talented. The Pats don't feed him the ball every week. He could easily be replaced by a FA or draft pick.

He may not be a standout talent, but Belichick likes the way he runs so he stays. No hesitation from BJGE, pick a spot and go. It's why Maroney was sent packing. More talent there but indecisive. Green Ellis doesn't have that problem.

 

[Biabreakable]

If you could explain how you created these tiers and what they mean I think the feedback could be more constructive.

Why do you have DeAngelo Williams in tier 2 for example?

 

[humpback]

I find it interesting that you had Ben Jarvis Green Ellis in tier 4. In my main league he was RB18 and I don't think that was with a full year as a starter. Using your tiers I would have put him as a low tier 2 or a high tier 3

He isn't particularly talented. The Pats don't feed him the ball every week. He could easily be replaced by a FA or draft pick.

He may not be a standout talent, but Belichick likes the way he runs so he stays. No hesitation from BJGE, pick a spot and go. It's why Maroney was sent packing. More talent there but indecisive. Green Ellis doesn't have that problem.

Maroney was sent packing because he isn't very good and makes a lot of money. BJGE will stay and have a nice role as long as he doesn't want a lot of money- if he does, he will likely be replaced with a cheaper option. It's kind of how the Pats do things (with a few exceptions).

 

[FantasyTrader]

appreciate the effort .

Refreshing

 

[eaglesfan7]

Ryan Matthews at 18. One season does wonders to a players value but he can bounce back.

 

[madd futher]

If you could explain how you created these tiers and what they mean I think the feedback could be more constructive.

Why do you have DeAngelo Williams in tier 2 for example?

I saw some very slight talent breaks at these levels (remember these are PPR):Tier 1: All youg and gifted running backs. Definitely the cream. J Steward might have made it in based on how he performed when healthy, but...

Tier 2: There are a hell of a lot of second level guys below these tier 1 guys - either older guys with a tier 1 track record (Gore, SJax), or guys who have kind of a mixed track record (in many cases due to injury) but actually have the talent to perform at an elite level. Deangelo Williams is very undervalued IMO. He is flat-out top tier talent. He will almost surely not be competing with Stewart for carries, and might just wind up on a team with a better o-line.

Tier 3: These guys are talented but "iffy". Michael Bush has only shown flashes of his significant talent, as have most of the others in this group. Regie Bush is the PPR king and merits tier 3 ranking based on his over-all game in PPR formats only.

Tier 4: This tier is even more problematic. Is woodhead a 1 year wonder in addition to sharing the load with the Law firm?

Then there are some talented power (non-PPR runners) who will have value in this group. McGahee will almost surely become fantasy relevant again. lynch has shown that he can do it - but consistently?

Tier 5: i admit this is my "catch-all" tier: Lots of "could be's" here, who may need some things to break thier way in order to move up. Quite a few back-ups, of course. But again, most have flashed talent in limited work. Yes there are some veterans sprinkled in here, like the very under-rated Fred Jackson who is coming up on 30 but has delivered the goods the last 2 years. I also like to creat a special tier 5 category called "Rentals: which are RBs who will be over 32 years old to begin the 2011 season. Obviously he could have been ranked higher after his 2010 performance, but there's not much left in that tank. F Jax didn't have the age or the mileage for me to place him as a rental.

Finally...some have said that I should have creatied more tiers. but this is how I view these guys. IMO, more tiers would have meant more confusion. Here's the point: there are (undoubtedly) some tier 4 and 5 guys who will elevate to tier 1 and tier 2 next year. Who will they be? There is a tremendous reservoir of talent in these 61 RBs.

I previously said that layering in rookies here at this stage would be a meaningless exercise. I agree...it would be a very meaningful exercise if it could be done this early with any reasonable accuracy. In my opinion that is even more impossible than trying to make sense out of ranking these veterans.

I hope this explanation helps!

 

[Biabreakable]

Does make things a bit clearer thanks.

So is your focus mainly to project how these players will perform in 2011?

As I was more wondering how much of a factor age and a players talent might have on these rankings. Based on your explanation I would guess not much but maybe I missed something.

 

[Summer Wheat]

I am targeting Ben Ellis next year. Think he will be a great value pick. I am done with Frank Gore unless he really drops.

 

[I was in the pool]

My QB rankings generated a nice discussion, so I thought I'd post my very early 2011 veteran RB dynasty rankings (PPR) without commentary. Again, I'm not as interested in the exact ranking within the tiers as I am in getting the tiers right.Tier 210. Jonathon Stewart 11. Frank Gore 12. Ahman Bradshaw 13. Deangelo Williams 14. Jahvid Best 15. Steven Jackson16. Michael Turner 17. Matt Forte 18. Ryan Matthews 19. Felix Jones 20. Peyton Hillis21. Knowshon Moreno 22. LeGarrette Blount Tier 323. Michael Bush24. Ryan Grant25. Beanie Wells 26. C J Spiller 27. Shonn Greene 28. Pierre Thomas 29. Joseph Addai30. Cedric Benson31. Tashard Choice 32. Reggie Bush Tier 4 33. Danny Woodhead 34. Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis35. Marion Barber36. Ryan Torain37. Ronnie Brown38. Brandon Jacobs39. Mike Tolbert 40. Willis McGahee41. Marshawn Lynch 42. Tim HightowerTier 543. Chris Ivory 44. Fred Jackson45. Donald Brown 46. Darren Sproles47. Jason Snelling 48. Bernard Scott 49. Mike Goodson 50. Jerome Harrison51. Rashard Jennings52. Toby Gerhart53. Brandon Jackson54. James Starks55. Kareem Huggins56. Justin Forsett57. Montario Hardesty 58. Leon WashingtonRentals59. LaDanian Tomlinson60. Ricky Williams/Thomas Jones So let the discussion begin!

A good percentage (about 15-20% of my ranking avg.) is based on their likelihood to be at least a 2-down back in the future. According to those guidelines, Matthews and Moreno should be borderline Tier 1/Tier 2 because they have little competition for touches with Sproles likely to be out of SD in 2011. Michael Bush and R.Bush should not be in the same tier because Reggie will never be a 2-down RB in the NFL - he didn't even beat out J.Jones for the playoff game last week...S.Greene should move up, Spiller down some and Starks up because he has a legitimate shot at being a 2-down back in GB next year.

 

[gpthatsme]

Curious to hear an explanation behind your rankings of Spiller (26) and Choice (31), as well as your rankings of the Jets backfield with Greene (27) and LT2 (59). All four of those seem a little off to me but curious to hear another take on it.

 

[I was in the pool]

Does that mean you think Spiller should be higher than 26?

 

[madd futher]

I really don't see a problem with Spiller at 26 and Choice at 31. While Spiller is immensely talented esp in PPR, he hasn't flashed that talent much as yet. He's still early on the learning curve as an NFL RB - he needs to learn to run with more patience. For now, and probably for even 2012, Fred Jackson is likely to take a chunk of Spiller's playing time, but i forsee a high ceiling for Spiller at some point.

Choice at 31 is about the same deal, only a different situation and a different style for runner. He's flashed when given opportunity, but Dallas has not ever really committed to either him or their running game.

Regarding Greene at 26, I weighed his limitations in PPR against his significant talent as a power runner. (And his receiving abilty just might improve with more reps).

LT won't be effective too much longer, so I classify him as a "rental". If you are in "win now" mode, LT has some value, but for dynasty, he represents a very poor investment.

 

[plyka]

My QB rankings generated a nice discussion, so I thought I'd post my very early 2011 veteran RB dynasty rankings (PPR) without commentary. Again, I'm not as interested in the exact ranking within the tiers as I am in getting the tiers right.Tier 11. Adrian Peterson 2. Chris Johnson 3. Maurice Jones Drew 4. Ray Rice 5. Jamaal Charles 6. Arian Foster 7. Rashard Mendenhall 8. Darren McFadden9. LeSean McCoyTier 210. Jonathon Stewart 11. Frank Gore 12. Ahman Bradshaw 13. Deangelo Williams 14. Jahvid Best 15. Steven Jackson16. Michael Turner 17. Matt Forte 18. Ryan Matthews 19. Felix Jones 20. Peyton Hillis21. Knowshon Moreno 22. LeGarrette Blount Tier 323. Michael Bush24. Ryan Grant25. Beanie Wells 26. C J Spiller 27. Shonn Greene 28. Pierre Thomas 29. Joseph Addai30. Cedric Benson31. Tashard Choice 32. Reggie Bush Tier 4 33. Danny Woodhead 34. Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis35. Marion Barber36. Ryan Torain37. Ronnie Brown38. Brandon Jacobs39. Mike Tolbert 40. Willis McGahee41. Marshawn Lynch 42. Tim HightowerTier 543. Chris Ivory 44. Fred Jackson45. Donald Brown 46. Darren Sproles47. Jason Snelling 48. Bernard Scott 49. Mike Goodson 50. Jerome Harrison51. Rashard Jennings52. Toby Gerhart53. Brandon Jackson54. James Starks55. Kareem Huggins56. Justin Forsett57. Montario Hardesty 58. Leon WashingtonRentals59. LaDanian Tomlinson60. Ricky Williams/Thomas Jones So let the discussion begin!

Yeah, your 4th and 5th tier is a bit of a mess. I would throw a bunch of those names out as i don't think you can put together a coherent list with so many names. For instance, James Starks and Brandon Jackson are right next to each other, but i can't see why they would even be close. Bjax has no chance of ever being a productive RB in the NFL. This year was the best chance he was ever going to get and he showed he was a drop candidate, while Starks is a rookie and showed plenty. Not sure how Mchahee and Brandon Jacobs can be in a higher tier, in dynasty, that LT for instance, but especially Chris Ivory, Snelling, Bernard Scott, Mike Goodson, Starks, etc.My tier 4 would be (in no particular order):HardestyLaw FirmTorainTolbertIvoryDonald BrownSnellingScottGoodsonJenningsGerhartStarksForsettLynchThen i would put the rest of your names in tier 5 or just throw them out all together.

 

[I was in the pool]

How are Lynch and Forsett close together? Lynch showed what he can do against NO. With less injuries on the O-line in 2011, Lynch could be a top 15 or 20 back. I never see that potential from Forsett. Lynch was great his first 2 years and then fell into some problems, but no one questioned his talent.

 

[I was in the pool]

Goodson is undervalued at this point as well. If D.Williams leaves town, he is a Stewart injury away from being a bell cow on a weekly basis in 2011 - and he did well in that role when given the opportunity in 2010.

 

[ratbast]

Tier 2 is a little shaky and Hillis is way too low. There are just too many injury prone potential guys clouding that tier.

 

[Concept Coop]

How are Lynch and Forsett close together? Lynch showed what he can do against NO. With less injuries on the O-line in 2011, Lynch could be a top 15 or 20 back. I never see that potential from Forsett. Lynch was great his first 2 years and then fell into some problems, but no one questioned his talent.

Forsett did more per carry than Marshawn Lynch. Marshawn Lynch is not top 15-20, based on one game - he had a poor season. Those who never questioned his talent should have starting doing so when he was beat out and out performed by Fred Jackson.

 

[J-Dawg]

Good discussion going on here. I was actually working on my own rankings the last week or so and made a few minor adjustments over the weekend. Rather than post a new thread or go over every thing that I both agree and disagree with regarding this list I figured I'd just post what I've been working on instead.

Tier 1

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Chris Johnson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Arian Foster

5. Jamaal Charles

Tier 2

6. Ray Rice

7. Rashard Mendenhall

8. Frank Gore

9. Darren McFadden

10. LeSean McCoy

11. Jonathan Stewart

Tier 3

12. Matt Forte

13. Michael Turner

14. Ahmad Bradshaw

15. DeAngelo Williams

16. Knowshon Moreno

17. Ryan Mathews

18. Peyton Hillis

19. Steven Jackson

Tier 4

20. LeGarrette Blount

21. Jahvid Best

22. Felix Jones

23. Beanie Wells

24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

25. Shonn Greene

26. Joseph Addai

Tier 5

27. Ryan Grant

28. Michael Bush

29. Marshawn Lynch

30. Fred Jackson

31. James Starks

32. Pierre Thomas

Tier 6

33. Brandon Jacobs

34. Cedric Benson

35. Chris Ivory

36. Montario Hardesty

37. Ryan Torain

38. C.J. Spiller

39. Tashard Choice

Tier 7

40. Mike Goodson

41. Mike Tolbert

42. Rashard Jennings

43. Derrick Ward

44. Willis McGahee

45. Tim Hightower

Tier 8

46. LaDainian Tomlinson

47. Danny Woodhead

48. Jerome Harrison

49. Joe McKnight

50. Ronnie Brown

 

[I was in the pool]

I think he is young enough to give him a pass in a season where Okung missed a bunch of time. Lynch was in the doghouse in Buffalo and then got traded to Seattle. It's not easy to transition to another team mid-season. I give him a pass in 2010 and will see what they do to upgrade the offense for 2011.

 

[madd futher]

Take away one long run with some VERY sloppy tackling and what did he show? Up until this last game, Lych as been a disappointment for two consecutive years now.

 

[madd futher]

Good discussion going on here. I was actually working on my own rankings the last week or so and made a few minor adjustments over the weekend. Rather than post a new thread or go over every thing that I both agree and disagree with regarding this list I figured I'd just post what I've been working on instead.

Tier 1

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Chris Johnson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Arian Foster

5. Jamaal Charles

Tier 2

6. Ray Rice

7. Rashard Mendenhall

8. Frank Gore

9. Darren McFadden

10. LeSean McCoy

11. Jonathan Stewart

Tier 3

12. Matt Forte

13. Michael Turner

14. Ahmad Bradshaw

15. DeAngelo Williams

16. Knowshon Moreno

17. Ryan Mathews

18. Peyton Hillis

19. Steven Jackson

Tier 4

20. LeGarrette Blount

21. Jahvid Best

22. Felix Jones

etc, etc

While we have a number of differences in the lower tiers - which i would expect in any list of rankings - the guys we ranked in the top 3+ tiers are amazingly close - in fact, almost identical lists. Beyond that, you appear to have been more influenced by Sunday's games than i am, but I also appreciate the rest of your efforts here. Thanks for your contribution.One thing to point is how 'fluid' either of our rankings are at this time of year - for example, Reggie Bush AND Pierre Thomas have significant medical problems right now, and just might never be the same RBs we have seen in the past.

 

[SproutDaddy]

It is hard enough making some sense out of ranking the veteran RBs at this stage. Layering in rookies pre-everything is an almost meaningless exercise IMO.

Meaningless exercise? It's everything to know where Ingram and Williams and the others will fall.

Not when you have rookie drafts.