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*NBA THREAD* Abe will be missed (4 Viewers)

It's how the next pass at attempting to measure "clutchness" will be better than current efforts to quantify it.
I think fangraphs has a good start on this - measuring shifts in WPA (win probability added) but of course it's far easier to measure stuff like that in baseball.
And after that work, all that we are going to figure out is that "clutchness" is random. That has already been proven by baseball stat nerds.
If that's true, then why haven't all teams who subscribe to sabermetrics not gone to closers by committee?
There a few possible reasons that don't include any concept of handling the pressure of the 9th inning.1. Managers and GMs are afraid not to name a closer because it is that kind of out of the box thinking that gets you fired quick if it doesn't work.2. It is assumed players are more comfortable with defined roles. Naming a closer is the 1st time in defining those roles.3. Mitch Williams says hitters behave differently in the 9th and a specific type of pitcher is needed to get strike one and then get them to chase.4. I am sure they are even more non-clutch reasons.And lastly, I don't think clutch exists. If you use a pitcher for 1000 innings in non-clutch situations and use the same pitcher for 1000 innings in clutch situation, chances are he his performances will be similar. Same goes for any sport and any player. We fall in love with clutchness simply because small sample sizes fool us. Now, I do think that choking occurs (although probably on a much smaller scale than most). However, that doesn't prove clutchness since 90%+ of players are who they are in clutch situations. They are not being clutch, they are being normal.
 
It's how the next pass at attempting to measure "clutchness" will be better than current efforts to quantify it.
I think fangraphs has a good start on this - measuring shifts in WPA (win probability added) but of course it's far easier to measure stuff like that in baseball.
And after that work, all that we are going to figure out is that "clutchness" is random. That has already been proven by baseball stat nerds.
If that's true, then why haven't all teams who subscribe to sabermetrics not gone to closers by committee?
Partially the same reason that coaches let their offenses run hero ball- groupthink, job security, desire to avoid accountability in the media. If your designated "closer" blows a save now and then people blame the closer or just dismiss it as something that happens every once in a while. But if a patchwork approach fails, the manager is immediately on the hotseat and has to explain his actions.There's also the external pressure of the "save" category and the fact that financial compensation and to a lesser degree recognition often follow it. A manager or a front office might want to use closers by committee, but its best relievers will hate it. Bad for morale and for future rosters. Hard to attract an elite bullpen arm if he's only gonna get 20 save chances a year.
The Nasty Boys disagree
 
It's how the next pass at attempting to measure "clutchness" will be better than current efforts to quantify it.
I think fangraphs has a good start on this - measuring shifts in WPA (win probability added) but of course it's far easier to measure stuff like that in baseball.
And after that work, all that we are going to figure out is that "clutchness" is random. That has already been proven by baseball stat nerds.
If that's true, then why haven't all teams who subscribe to sabermetrics not gone to closers by committee?
Partially the same reason that coaches let their offenses run hero ball- groupthink, job security, desire to avoid accountability in the media. If your designated "closer" blows a save now and then people blame the closer or just dismiss it as something that happens every once in a while. But if a patchwork approach fails, the manager is immediately on the hotseat and has to explain his actions.There's also the external pressure of the "save" category and the fact that financial compensation and to a lesser degree recognition often follow it. A manager or a front office might want to use closers by committee, but its best relievers will hate it. Bad for morale and for future rosters. Hard to attract an elite bullpen arm if he's only gonna get 20 save chances a year.
Not if it's an organizational philosophy. Unless you're of the belief that Bill James himself believes that the Red Sox are literally giving wins away every year by adhering to groupthink instead of attempting to optimize outcomes. I just think that's too tin-foil hatish. :shrug: I'm not saying "clutchness" as defined by the average fan ("Jordan ALWAYS made those game winners!!!") isn't overrated, but I'm not willing to dismiss the arguement that some players perform better under pressure situations than others either.

 
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if they keep harden i could see a number of titles. he's going to need a max deal...i think they'll choose ibaka with a lesser contract.i think the guy is the most underrated player in the league (harden). his game is so beyond his years. he's a perfect complimentary player (1b player).id take him over wade as a complimentary player.
If they show Spo the door, I'd dangle Wade in trade talks.He's got to dominate the ball to be effective. He's not a guy that moves well w/o the ball, isn't a great shooter. Throw Nash on the Heat, Wade isn't going to be any more effective than someone like Jason Richardson. (I think Bosh and Lebron benefit much much more with a solid PG)He's 30 now. IMO We're going to see an Allen Iverson like decline in production when he's in incapable of athletically getting to the hoop at will. Guys like Wade are fun to have on your team when they're young, but their deficiencies become more and more apparent as they age.
 
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It's how the next pass at attempting to measure "clutchness" will be better than current efforts to quantify it.
I think fangraphs has a good start on this - measuring shifts in WPA (win probability added) but of course it's far easier to measure stuff like that in baseball.
And after that work, all that we are going to figure out is that "clutchness" is random. That has already been proven by baseball stat nerds.
If that's true, then why haven't all teams who subscribe to sabermetrics not gone to closers by committee?
There a few possible reasons that don't include any concept of handling the pressure of the 9th inning.1. Managers and GMs are afraid not to name a closer because it is that kind of out of the box thinking that gets you fired quick if it doesn't work.

2. It is assumed players are more comfortable with defined roles. Naming a closer is the 1st time in defining those roles.

3. Mitch Williams says hitters behave differently in the 9th and a specific type of pitcher is needed to get strike one and then get them to chase.

4. I am sure they are even more non-clutch reasons.

And lastly, I don't think clutch exists. If you use a pitcher for 1000 innings in non-clutch situations and use the same pitcher for 1000 innings in clutch situation, chances are he his performances will be similar. Same goes for any sport and any player. We fall in love with clutchness simply because small sample sizes fool us.

Now, I do think that choking occurs (although probably on a much smaller scale than most). However, that doesn't prove clutchness since 90%+ of players are who they are in clutch situations. They are not being clutch, they are being normal.
I agree with this. Every once in a while you see a pro athlete who just gets it stuck in his head when there's added pressure. But these cases are very few and far between.
 
It's how the next pass at attempting to measure "clutchness" will be better than current efforts to quantify it.
I think fangraphs has a good start on this - measuring shifts in WPA (win probability added) but of course it's far easier to measure stuff like that in baseball.
And after that work, all that we are going to figure out is that "clutchness" is random. That has already been proven by baseball stat nerds.
If that's true, then why haven't all teams who subscribe to sabermetrics not gone to closers by committee?
There a few possible reasons that don't include any concept of handling the pressure of the 9th inning.1. Managers and GMs are afraid not to name a closer because it is that kind of out of the box thinking that gets you fired quick if it doesn't work.

2. It is assumed players are more comfortable with defined roles. Naming a closer is the 1st time in defining those roles.

3. Mitch Williams says hitters behave differently in the 9th and a specific type of pitcher is needed to get strike one and then get them to chase.

4. I am sure they are even more non-clutch reasons.

And lastly, I don't think clutch exists. If you use a pitcher for 1000 innings in non-clutch situations and use the same pitcher for 1000 innings in clutch situation, chances are he his performances will be similar. Same goes for any sport and any player. We fall in love with clutchness simply because small sample sizes fool us.

Now, I do think that choking occurs (although probably on a much smaller scale than most). However, that doesn't prove clutchness since 90%+ of players are who they are in clutch situations. They are not being clutch, they are being normal.
I agree with this. Every once in a while you see a pro athlete who just gets it stuck in his head when there's added pressure. But these cases are very few and far between.
Not a golf fan?I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. The idea that the average professional athlete is immune to pressure seems preposterous to me.

 
If the Celtics and the Thunder close out these series and meet in the Finals, here is my WWE scenario.

Kevin Durant is warming up before the game. Suddendly, out of nowhere, Kendrick Perkins trips over his own feet right into KDs knee. KD hits the deck writhing in agony saying "Why, why why??"

Perkins stands up, rips off his warm up jacket to reveal a Celtics jersey underneath. Queue NWO music...

 
If the Celtics and the Thunder close out these series and meet in the Finals, here is my WWE scenario.

Kevin Durant is warming up before the game. Suddendly, out of nowhere, Kendrick Perkins trips over his own feet right into KDs knee. KD hits the deck writhing in agony saying "Why, why why??"

Perkins stands up, rips off his warm up jacket to reveal a Celtics jersey underneath. Queue NWO music...
 
I agree with this. Every once in a while you see a pro athlete who just gets it stuck in his head when there's added pressure. But these cases are very few and far between.
Not a golf fan?I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. The idea that the average professional athlete is immune to pressure seems preposterous to me.
I actually watch quite a bit of golf. Enough that I've seen guys miss three footers on the 7th hole on Thursday morning before a crowd of ten just as often as it happens on Sunday afternoon before a crowd of thousands on national TV.I think there are some very specific situations where a small minority of guys do choke in a circumstance where they have a lot of time to think about what's at stake and where a very small muscle twitch or timing problem could change the result. Golf is one, pitching is another, free throws maybe, FG attempts maybe. But I think its a minority of pro athletes who are affected by it, and I think it's only in situation where everything is on the athlete and there's no reaction or flow to what they're doing.
 
Scott Van Pelt ‏@notthefakeSVP

Imagine MJ after a game 5 loss at home to fall behind 3-2 thinking...where are my fake glasses with no lenses...THERE THEY ARE...

 
Scott Van Pelt ‏@notthefakeSVP

Imagine MJ after a game 5 loss at home to fall behind 3-2 thinking...where are my fake glasses with no lenses...THERE THEY ARE...
Reminds me of my favorite Jordan postgame tidbit, after Chicago had lost Game 6 in Indiana.
Guy was an #######, but he was a leader.

 
It's how the next pass at attempting to measure "clutchness" will be better than current efforts to quantify it.
I think fangraphs has a good start on this - measuring shifts in WPA (win probability added) but of course it's far easier to measure stuff like that in baseball.
And after that work, all that we are going to figure out is that "clutchness" is random. That has already been proven by baseball stat nerds.
If that's true, then why haven't all teams who subscribe to sabermetrics not gone to closers by committee?
Partially the same reason that coaches let their offenses run hero ball- groupthink, job security, desire to avoid accountability in the media. If your designated "closer" blows a save now and then people blame the closer or just dismiss it as something that happens every once in a while. But if a patchwork approach fails, the manager is immediately on the hotseat and has to explain his actions.There's also the external pressure of the "save" category and the fact that financial compensation and to a lesser degree recognition often follow it. A manager or a front office might want to use closers by committee, but its best relievers will hate it. Bad for morale and for future rosters. Hard to attract an elite bullpen arm if he's only gonna get 20 save chances a year.
And lets throw in NFL coaches who don't go for it on 4th down. Mountains of statistical evidence that shows it is the correct play yet coaches are still scared to make the call.
 
If the Celtics and the Thunder close out these series and meet in the Finals, here is my WWE scenario.

Kevin Durant is warming up before the game. Suddendly, out of nowhere, Kendrick Perkins trips over his own feet right into KDs knee. KD hits the deck writhing in agony saying "Why, why why??"

Perkins stands up, rips off his warm up jacket to reveal a Celtics jersey underneath. Queue NWO music...
That's money...Can't believe I've never seen this before, but I haven't. Awesome...

 
If they show Spo the door, I'd dangle Wade in trade talks.He's got to dominate the ball to be effective. He's not a guy that moves well w/o the ball, isn't a great shooter. Throw Nash on the Heat, Wade isn't going to be any more effective than someone like Jason Richardson. (I think Bosh and Lebron benefit much much more with a solid PG)He's 30 now. IMO We're going to see an Allen Iverson like decline in production when he's in incapable of athletically getting to the hoop at will. Guys like Wade are fun to have on your team when they're young, but their deficiencies become more and more apparent as they age.
if spo is let go - and i think the only thing that could save his job is a championship this year - then a trade of any of the big three seems unlikely. moving wade/lebron/bosh admits the failure of the team goes beyond Spo. the new coach will have at least a year to work with these core players.hm,ETA - 26 ppg average in a 14 year career suggests the problem with iverson in the later years was not a decline in his production.
 
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This didn't take long. "Good Effort" T-shirt in Miami Heat font already available.

The Miami Heat ‘Good Effort’ T-shirt: Accentuate the positive by celebrating memes

The coolest thing about the shirt: All profits from its sales will reportedly be donated to the Penn State Hershey Cancer Institute, so hit Skreened.com if you want to help charity begin at your home, and maybe stick it to that special Heat fan in your life just a bit.

It seems like an especially sound strategy if you're a Boston backer; as the designer notes, "Don't forget Celtics fans, you can order it in green." Mass ordering and wearing of those would be light-years cooler than those Tim Donaghy masks, and it might actually help people. Total win-win, like your name was Giamatti.
That would be GOAT shtick if Boston had green versions of these draped over every seat for Game 6.
 
I'm just angry that the Celtics have a great chance to go to the finals again. They could lose every game they play from now until the end of the world and I'd still want them to lose more. :rant:PS. I can't believe some of you other "Laker fans" rooting for the Celtics here. Turn in your goggles and knee high tube socks at the L.A. Live clothes donation bin now.
No self-respecting Laker fan would be rooting for the Celtics. My wife, a huge Laker fan, is the biggest LeBron James fan on the planet right now.I don't like the Heat, but I hate the Celtics. I'm not "rooting for" the Heat as much as I am rooting against the Celtics.
 
I'm just angry that the Celtics have a great chance to go to the finals again. They could lose every game they play from now until the end of the world and I'd still want them to lose more. :rant:PS. I can't believe some of you other "Laker fans" rooting for the Celtics here. Turn in your goggles and knee high tube socks at the L.A. Live clothes donation bin now.
No self-respecting Laker fan would be rooting for the Celtics. My wife, a huge Laker fan, is the biggest LeBron James fan on the planet right now.I don't like the Heat, but I hate the Celtics. I'm not "rooting for" the Heat as much as I am rooting against the Celtics.
It goes to show you how deep the hatred for LeBron can get when Lakers fans are cheering for the Celtics.
 
I'm just angry that the Celtics have a great chance to go to the finals again. They could lose every game they play from now until the end of the world and I'd still want them to lose more. :rant:

PS. I can't believe some of you other "Laker fans" rooting for the Celtics here. Turn in your goggles and knee high tube socks at the L.A. Live clothes donation bin now.
No self-respecting Laker fan would be rooting for the Celtics. My wife, a huge Laker fan, is the biggest LeBron James fan on the planet right now.I don't like the Heat, but I hate the Celtics. I'm not "rooting for" the Heat as much as I am rooting against the Celtics.
It goes to show you how deep the hatred for LeBron can get when Lakers fans are cheering for the Celtics.
The Celtics have ZERO chance against whomever emerges from the West. If they did, I'd be pulling for Miami.ETA: It's also a lot easier to pull for this than this.

 
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I'm just angry that the Celtics have a great chance to go to the finals again. They could lose every game they play from now until the end of the world and I'd still want them to lose more. :rant:PS. I can't believe some of you other "Laker fans" rooting for the Celtics here. Turn in your goggles and knee high tube socks at the L.A. Live clothes donation bin now.
No self-respecting Laker fan would be rooting for the Celtics. My wife, a huge Laker fan, is the biggest LeBron James fan on the planet right now.I don't like the Heat, but I hate the Celtics. I'm not "rooting for" the Heat as much as I am rooting against the Celtics.
It goes to show you how deep the hatred for LeBron can get when Lakers fans are cheering for the Celtics.
The Celtics have ZERO chance against whomever emerges from the West. If they did, I'd be pulling for Miami.
I am not judging. It is simply fascinating.
 
I'm just angry that the Celtics have a great chance to go to the finals again. They could lose every game they play from now until the end of the world and I'd still want them to lose more. :rant:PS. I can't believe some of you other "Laker fans" rooting for the Celtics here. Turn in your goggles and knee high tube socks at the L.A. Live clothes donation bin now.
No self-respecting Laker fan would be rooting for the Celtics. My wife, a huge Laker fan, is the biggest LeBron James fan on the planet right now.I don't like the Heat, but I hate the Celtics. I'm not "rooting for" the Heat as much as I am rooting against the Celtics.
It goes to show you how deep the hatred for LeBron can get when Lakers fans are cheering for the Celtics.
The Celtics have ZERO chance against whomever emerges from the West. If they did, I'd be pulling for Miami.
I am not judging. It is simply fascinating.
I'll judge. That's one candy### "rivalry." I'd cheer for Germany against my own country's basketball team as long as USA Basketball has Coach K at the helm. That's a rivalry.
 
I'm just angry that the Celtics have a great chance to go to the finals again. They could lose every game they play from now until the end of the world and I'd still want them to lose more. :rant:PS. I can't believe some of you other "Laker fans" rooting for the Celtics here. Turn in your goggles and knee high tube socks at the L.A. Live clothes donation bin now.
No self-respecting Laker fan would be rooting for the Celtics. My wife, a huge Laker fan, is the biggest LeBron James fan on the planet right now.I don't like the Heat, but I hate the Celtics. I'm not "rooting for" the Heat as much as I am rooting against the Celtics.
It goes to show you how deep the hatred for LeBron can get when Lakers fans are cheering for the Celtics.
The Celtics have ZERO chance against whomever emerges from the West. If they did, I'd be pulling for Miami.
I am not judging. It is simply fascinating.
I'll judge. That's one candy### "rivalry." I'd cheer for Germany against my own country's basketball team as long as USA Basketball has Coach K at the helm. That's a rivalry.
The coach doesn't even get a medal though. You were seriously rooting for Spain in 2008?
 
I'm just angry that the Celtics have a great chance to go to the finals again. They could lose every game they play from now until the end of the world and I'd still want them to lose more. :rant:PS. I can't believe some of you other "Laker fans" rooting for the Celtics here. Turn in your goggles and knee high tube socks at the L.A. Live clothes donation bin now.
No self-respecting Laker fan would be rooting for the Celtics. My wife, a huge Laker fan, is the biggest LeBron James fan on the planet right now.I don't like the Heat, but I hate the Celtics. I'm not "rooting for" the Heat as much as I am rooting against the Celtics.
It goes to show you how deep the hatred for LeBron can get when Lakers fans are cheering for the Celtics.
The Celtics have ZERO chance against whomever emerges from the West. If they did, I'd be pulling for Miami.
I am not judging. It is simply fascinating.
I'll judge. That's one candy### "rivalry." I'd cheer for Germany against my own country's basketball team as long as USA Basketball has Coach K at the helm. That's a rivalry.
The coach doesn't even get a medal though. You were seriously rooting for Spain in 2008?
Absolutely, without hesitation. (was just joking about Germany though, don't know how that one would break for me)
 
I'm just angry that the Celtics have a great chance to go to the finals again. They could lose every game they play from now until the end of the world and I'd still want them to lose more. :rant:PS. I can't believe some of you other "Laker fans" rooting for the Celtics here. Turn in your goggles and knee high tube socks at the L.A. Live clothes donation bin now.
No self-respecting Laker fan would be rooting for the Celtics. My wife, a huge Laker fan, is the biggest LeBron James fan on the planet right now.I don't like the Heat, but I hate the Celtics. I'm not "rooting for" the Heat as much as I am rooting against the Celtics.
It goes to show you how deep the hatred for LeBron can get when Lakers fans are cheering for the Celtics.
Must be a LOT of Laker fans in CLE.
 
I'm just angry that the Celtics have a great chance to go to the finals again. They could lose every game they play from now until the end of the world and I'd still want them to lose more. :rant:PS. I can't believe some of you other "Laker fans" rooting for the Celtics here. Turn in your goggles and knee high tube socks at the L.A. Live clothes donation bin now.
No self-respecting Laker fan would be rooting for the Celtics. My wife, a huge Laker fan, is the biggest LeBron James fan on the planet right now.I don't like the Heat, but I hate the Celtics. I'm not "rooting for" the Heat as much as I am rooting against the Celtics.
It goes to show you how deep the hatred for LeBron can get when Lakers fans are cheering for the Celtics.
The Celtics have ZERO chance against whomever emerges from the West. If they did, I'd be pulling for Miami.
I am not judging. It is simply fascinating.
I like Gunz and all, but I'm judging. Him rooting for the Celtics is not appropriate as a Laker fan. Diametrically opposed to the interests of the Lakers and the Laker-fandom. There are only a couple bright line rules of being a Laker fan. Root for the Lakers at all times and root against the Celtics at all times unless, of course, the Lakers would actually benefit from a Celtic victory. That's it. Each individual's Laker fandom is their own beyond that. If you cannot subscribe to those two, then I submit that you are not a true Laker fan.Root for the Heat in this series and then root for the Thunder or Spurs in the Finals. Both of those teams are more likeable than either of the Eastern Conference teams anyway.
 
I feel the same way here in Toronto. No Toronto sports fan in their right mind should ever cheer for a Boston team (except maybe NFL because we don't have a team). Yet, at every bar that I've watched this series in, >90% of the crowd is pro Celtics. That's how bad the Lebron/big 3* hate is these days.

*I realize some people in Toronto hate the Heat because of Bosh, but let's be honest - Bosh made no promises about staying and had all the right in the world to leave. It's Colangelo and management's fault that they couldn't keep him or get any value from him in a mid season trade.

 
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I like Gunz and all, but I'm judging. Him rooting for the Celtics is not appropriate as a Laker fan. Diametrically opposed to the interests of the Lakers and the Laker-fandom. There are only a couple bright line rules of being a Laker fan. Root for the Lakers at all times and root against the Celtics at all times unless, of course, the Lakers would actually benefit from a Celtic victory. That's it. Each individual's Laker fandom is their own beyond that. If you cannot subscribe to those two, then I submit that you are not a true Laker fan.Root for the Heat in this series and then root for the Thunder or Spurs in the Finals. Both of those teams are more likeable than either of the Eastern Conference teams anyway.
I can't fault this logic. I can't get past my opinion that with a healthy Bosh, Miami has a decent shot against OKC or SA. I don't think the Celtics stand a chance against either.
 
I'll judge. That's one candy### "rivalry."

I'd cheer for Germany against my own country's basketball team as long as USA Basketball has Coach K at the helm. That's a rivalry.
The coach doesn't even get a medal though. You were seriously rooting for Spain in 2008?
Absolutely, without hesitation. (was just joking about Germany though, don't know how that one would break for me)
Well we actually did play Germany in 2008. It didn't go so well for the Germans. My link. Just so we're clear here, this summer you will not be rooting for Team USA to win the Gold Medal? You'd prefer Spain or France?
 
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Does Dwayne Wade need to be reminded again that a basketball game is four quarters? Sure, his 4th quarter was great last night, but once again he failed to show up for the bulk of the game. With the way LBJ is playing in the first 36 minutes of games, if Wade played well during those minutes as well, they'd be blowing Boston's doors off, as opposed to facing elimination tomorrow.

 
Ok who's wants action.The Heat win this series.
Even money? Sure. I'm your huckleberry.
Same here.
What's the min and max for both of you?Anyone else?
What's your max? I'll need to verify your address somehow just in case. Will scan you over a copy of my electric utility bill to make it fair.
Or we can all just use Rudnicki for escrow? :shrug:
 
Ok who's wants action.The Heat win this series.
Even money? Sure. I'm your huckleberry.
Same here.
What's the min and max for both of you?Anyone else?
What's your max? I'll need to verify your address somehow just in case. Will scan you over a copy of my electric utility bill to make it fair.
Or we can all just use Rudnicki for escrow? :shrug:
Down with that. I'd like to hedge out of my Heat Title future bet at this point. This is a win win for me either way. Or an even-even proposition
 
Ok who's wants action.The Heat win this series.
Even money? Sure. I'm your huckleberry.
Same here.
What's the min and max for both of you?Anyone else?
What's your max? I'll need to verify your address somehow just in case. Will scan you over a copy of my electric utility bill to make it fair.
Or we can all just use Rudnicki for escrow? :shrug:
I dont know man. He is kind of shady. I want someone that wont take our money and do something stupid with it. Someone like OTIS.
 
Ok who's wants action.The Heat win this series.
Even money? Sure. I'm your huckleberry.
Same here.
What's the min and max for both of you?Anyone else?
What's your max? I'll need to verify your address somehow just in case. Will scan you over a copy of my electric utility bill to make it fair.
Or we can all just use Rudnicki for escrow? :shrug:
I dont know man. He is kind of shady. I want someone that wont take our money and do something stupid with it. Someone like OTIS.
This is a solid point.
 

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