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I figured the same but went back and looked. On Dec. 1, they were ranked 16th, then peaked at 14 around the beginning of January, but slid from there all the way to 27th in February before getting to where they are now at 21. So from December 1 to now they actually slipped a few spots in efficiency. Their defense went from 106th to 70th in the last 4 weeks or so, so there's that I guess.
Look at key player absences ...you’re only looking at results
When did missing players on Arizona return? Trier missed only two games, right? Who am I missing? It doesn't look like at any point from December to now that Arizona got significantly better. If they have players just now returning for the tournament that'd be a different story and obviously something to include.
Agree with Missouri, huge question mark.
I don't think we're really disagreeing much here and I'm not trying to downplay Arizona's chances. The stats do show them jumping up 5 spots in just this last week which substantiates what you are saying, but it's still not that far from where they were in December. I was originally surprised by this because I remember them being pretty bad at the beginning of the season so I assumed there would've been a big bump in their efficiency but it really hasn't happened.
Well they are already near the top in offensive efficiency so not a ton of room to improve there. D efficiency has catapulted 30ish spots but Kenpom Will continue to punish the overall Ranking due to the early season stuff. All of that being said the defense is just okay, but certainly not as bad as the year end efficiency metrics would lead one to believe. Particularly Trier and Cartwright are inconsistent on the perimeter. Ayton slowly realizing he can block everything.
If you're looking at KenPom, the efficiency numbers are adjusted for SOS, and UNC had the number 1 SOS this year. The four factors numbers are not adjusted for SOS while the efficiency numbers are. Further, they did have the 63rd best TO% this year on offense, which is pretty solid. They're not throwing away many chances and creating a lot of second chances on offense.Scoresman said:
Yeah I realized afterwards about the SoS affecting the overall. It's amazing how much it affects the various factors.
Are you talking about like regional futures, using those odds? As much of a degen as I am I should have thought of using those before, but I never have.Peyton Marino said:the odds posted offshore currently factor in all of the kenpom/t-rank/sagarin/etc efficiency metrics, as well as team events like injuries/missing players, and anything else you could think of. if you're trying to pick the "best" bracket, you're not going to do better than using those (as close to gametime as possible)
I see them at 136 in defensive eFG%. certainly not much better than average but not terrible either. their defensive 3P% was pretty bad (285th) which is primarily responsible for the discrepancy. def 3P% is one of the flukier stats and given that UNC teams aren't historically that bad in 3P defense, I'd be willing to bet on some regression there.
I was mostly thinking about the first round lines, but for later rounds I think the futures can be helpful as well.
You just proved my point. Money and bias. Pure and simple. Distance between Lexington to Memphis and Chapel hill to Memphis is nit picking. Peowers that be wanted that matchup. Money. The money that game generated for the city, alone, is probably difficult to truly understand.Or maybe it was because North Carolina was better this season than both Kentucky and Arizona this season by every reasonable measure (RPI, Ken Pom, Sagarin, Quadrant 1 wins, etc.) and thus earned the right to favorable geographic treatment in the early rounds?
Also, just last year UNC and Kentucky played a regional final in Memphis, Tennessee- more convenient for UK's fan base than UNC's, closer to Kentucky than NC and closer to Lexington than Chapel Hill ... despite UNC being the region's 1 seed and Kentucky being in line to be shipped out west to play Gonzaga instead.
7 man rotation now with Salt and Diakite picking up Hunter's minutes?Well UVa is probably not going far now. De'Andre Hunter has a broken wrist and done for tournament.
It's not about whether they "stunk" (you must be a Wildcat fan..only Wildcat fans agree that a top 25 team that won the SEC who got half their league in the tournament Stunk. I know, if UK isn't top 4 from start to finish and make the final 4 then they stunk...I get it). Anyway, not about whether they stunk. that wasn't the point. The point is certain teams with great followings always seem to find themselves in Kansas and Texas, etc while the darling teams in North Carolina wouldn't know what the Mississippi river looked like if they had to.
Wouldn't do it. The best player on the floor is no doubt on Bama's team and in one game, anything goes.
Great night for them.
Anyone but UCLA. Steve Alford is the biggest wank ever. Anyone who allowed the Ball family into their program should be fired and forced to sleep naked in Bill Walton's teepee.
I was more asking about the match up with Florida, but your logic is solid here.
2011 - VCU won a First Four game and went to the Final Four
I'm against 68 teams in general but I dont like the idea of only making 16's play in the play in game. They won their conference and deserve to be in the "real" tournament IMO. To me, the last 8 at large teams should have to earn their spots.
