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NCAA HOOPS THREAD! -- K petitions to get Maui Jim Maui Invitational moved to Transylvania (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Good Posting Judge
- Start date
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I love how they keep telling us that these sh-t teams "just won an NCAA game."
Whatever.
Whatever.
Premier
Footballguy
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Vicktimized
Footballguy
I've got:
SF Austin over VCU
Dayton over tOSU
NM State over SD State
NC State over St. Louis
Harvard over Cincinnati
Tenn over U Mass (pending)
Zona State over Texas
Baylor over Creighton
Tenn over Duke
Tenn over Mich
I use KenPom but not just by straight differential ... I tend to fade teams that really struggle either offensively or defensively, since I think they historically are DOA come tourney time (especially teams that can defend but can't score at all). There are a bunch of one-way teams this year so I'm thinking we'll see a lot of upper-seeds teams hit the skids early.
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shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
They are allowed to play in them, yes, but like someone theorized, the committee probably won't put them in one.
The fact that Dayton, Ohio, is the perpetual host of the First Four games is so perfectly ironic as to almost defy description.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Oof. That is a terrible call.
Dickie Dunn
Footballguy
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
To me, the biggest ? is Iowa St....I love them as a team, but they arent getting regional help after the first weekend, and they lose on the road to good teams compared to almost never at home.
So torn. Have them in the F4 in 1 and MSU in my other but wish I had room for UVA. Theyre easily the sneakiest surprise #1. I dont think the have the offense to hang though.
So torn. Have them in the F4 in 1 and MSU in my other but wish I had room for UVA. Theyre easily the sneakiest surprise #1. I dont think the have the offense to hang though.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Iowa State is going to be one of the teams that decides a ton of brackets. F4 possibility who could lose R1.
UVA/MSU game would be a hell of a game. Not sure either team has much of a mismatch in that game. I guess MSU doesn't have a true PF so maybe they can go small and force UVA to go likewise but Mitchell can guard smaller guys. Or can Mitchell guard Payne? Game would likely be a toss up.
Tusken Raider
Footballguy
Memphis homer here. While I can't say too much about UVA or GW, I can give the breakdown of Memphis.
Pros: As usual, very athletic team. Four senior guards, including Mizzou transfer Michael Dixon, who has been the Tigers' rock the past few games. Joe Jackson can sprint coast to coast with the ball in transition, Crawford is a streaky 3pt shooter who is the Tigers' only consistent outside threat. Geron Johnson typically draws the toughest defense assignments, & looks to apply on-ball pressure every time. All guards have quick hands on D in hopes of creating TOs & scores in transition (fast break play of the year candidate here). Inside, Soph Shaq Goodwin is has good moves around the basket & looks to get Fr Austin Nichols involved early every game with high-low & inside passes. Nichols has fantastic hands & can score with either hand. Both are good rebounders & shot blockers. Reserves Nick King & GW transfer David Pellom are the only two frontcourt reserves who get significant minutes, and get their points on stickbacks.
Cons: Disciplined defense. Gambling, reaching style of defense often leads to easy buckets for opposing teams, and help defense often leads to fouls on bigs who have to switch to help in the lane. Coach Josh Pastner insists on face guarding EVERYONE who leaks outside of the three point line, including bigs who can't shoot. That being said, the Tigers still don't defend against the 3pt very well, and a team with a good shooter will light them up. Memphis is not a good 3pt shooting team themselves & defenses who sag can bait the Tigers into taking wide-open threes that they haven't proven to hit with any consistency. Memphis is also below average in team FT%.
Overall: Memphis matches up well against teams that want to push the tempo, but poorly against half-court offenses that also play smart defense. They are at their best when they get a lead & force teams into missing jumpers that lead to transition points, but struggle when they have to take jumpshots themselves. Good wins against Ok.St, Gonzaga, Louisville (twice), & SMU. Played Florida to a two point loss in a game that could have gone either way. Bad losses to Cincy (twice), UConn (three times), SMU, Houston & Ok.St.
sporthenry
Footballguy
sporthenry
Footballguy
How are they against presses and zones? GW uses a 1-3-1 trapping defense that if exploited, can lead to easy baskets. GW probably won't take too many dumb shots to lead to fast break opportunities.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Cal Poly needs to be known for something other than computer science, engineering, and hot chicks.Raider Nation said:
MAC_32
Footballguy
end of the Tennessee game
strykerpks
Footballguy
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Im sticking with Iowa St, but damn they are starting to smell like Mizzou a few years back to me who I was also high on and then lost as a 15 seeded Norfolk State.
All offense, no defense. I think this ISU team is better all around besides at PG, but ooh wee. ISU is better coached as well, which is something Im buying this year especially.
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Tusken Raider
Footballguy
A press doesn't bother Memphis much, as they've very good in transition, although tough pressure half-court defense can force them into lazy, telegraphed passes. A 1-3-1 won't give Memphis much trouble, if its attempt is to guard outside shooting (which is a Memphis weakness.) Memphis will try to penetrate & dish inside if allowed to. If GW doesn't do their homework, your description of GW would favor Memphis' style.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Michigan and OU play at the same time. 16 games and these two are on at the same time? 
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Hmmm. Last season, Pomeroy dug his heels in pretty deep on predictive value of scoring margin, so I'm surprised to hear he changed his mind about it so soon.Did he post a blog entry on why and how he tweaked his formula?
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Thanks! While he understandably didn't pop the hood, he does explain why the rankings from previous years suddenly changed.
If I'm reading that blog entry right, the tweak doesn't affect the impact of Tennessee's blowout win over Virginia, but might take a little off the power of Tennessee's blowout win over Tennessee State.
That probably makes the ratings more accurate for teams that played tough schedules, but inadvertently introduced more variance to mid-majors who steamrolled their competition like Wichita State and Louisville. Explains why 'Ville is his #1-ranked team right now.
sporthenry
Footballguy
Yeah, I think Louisville is also aided by the fact his system has a recency bias. Not that recency isn't important but few top teams get the benefit of beating up on mediocre teams this late. As you mention, Louisville is probably more similar to a mid-major in their schedule this year. And Louisville's press is probably able to beat up on decent teams much like Wicsonsin beat up on absolute horrid teams.
And I took the same thing from the Tennessee/UVA win. Granted it happened a while ago so some of its effect should have worn off in the system. But it makes sense to put a cap on a game like that or even just remove it to see what happens to Tennessee's rating. They'd still grade out well b/c they dominate in their wins and lose closely. Kenpom actually wrote an article about them. http://regressing.deadspin.com/is-a-no-11-seed-actually-among-the-best-teams-in-the-c-1547060812
Either way, Tennessee looks to be a tough match up for Duke, assuming they meet up.
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werdnoynek
Footballguy
if this all happens we may both be fighting for the top because I've picked those exact upsets too lol.Scoresman said:
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shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Extra credit for describing a player as streaky and consistent in the same sentence.
.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
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Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I'm hearing that the NCAA has found every player on each of the 64 teams ineligible for some reason or another. The entire tourney is canceled.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Our annual reminder for those participating in this thread... no need to update us on how y'all are doing in your bracket pool. PM your bracket to shuke. He will collect everyone's brackets and update us after each session, either in the thread or by posting the link to a Google Doc after each session. He said that even after the trauma of seeing his hero Aroldis Chapman take that header yesterday, he's still up his role in this FFA tradition.
Thank you, and enjoy MARCH MADNESS!!!
Thank you, and enjoy MARCH MADNESS!!!
timschochet
Footballguy
Scoresman, why do you think that if VCU beats UCLA, they are likely to upset Florida? And what would a UCLA- VCU matchup be like?
timschochet
Footballguy
Also curios how people think San Diego State will do.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I think VCU is a great fade. They have the high KenPom ranking and mid-major name recognition from previous runs under Smart pumping up their perceived value, but they have huge injury concerns, maybe bigger than anyone in the tournament other than Kansas with Embiid.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
More on VCU- their outstanding defensive efficiency numbers are predicated on three main things- turnovers/steals (#1 in the country), defending the 3 very well (10th), and lucking into a lot of missed free throws (28th). Those are the sort of things that tend to disappear when the level of competition ratchets up.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
Don't underestimate the importance of free throw defense.
GOB
Footballguy
I'm not sure UC will win easily, since they are so offensively challenged. But I think they match up very well with Harvard. I'm a little surprised they are such a trendy pick as an upset.
Scoresman
Footballguy
I've since changed my mind on the UCLA/VCU matchup. The numbers show this game as an absolute tossup and VCU has the edge in overall efficiency, but UCLA plays a very offensively efficient game and I see that being a problem for VCU's style of forcing turnovers and playing quick in transition.
As for VCU over Florida, that was a strict matchup comparison based on historical matchups between 1s and 5s in the Sweet 16. All of the 5 seeds that won this matchup had these 3 characteristics. Won more than half of their last 10 games, are high scoring, and rely on their guards (close to 80%) for a lot of their points. VCU fits the profile so I initially had that as a sweet 16 upset.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I'm tired of my Tar Heels constantly having to face the nation's best free throw defenses every game.
Nipsey
Footballguy
Anyone going to Alan Boston's house today?
alan boston @bostonred88 11h
I repeat for the visitors tomorrow. Shoes off. Pet the Great Dane. Then you can eat some bbq and hopefully enjoy the games.
alan boston @bostonred88 11h
I repeat for the visitors tomorrow. Shoes off. Pet the Great Dane. Then you can eat some bbq and hopefully enjoy the games.