Paging Yudkin.................
Is there any value at all this year with Edelman? It seems like Welker is 100%, so how many plays would Edelman even see in a given week? Any chance he could become the punt and kick returner?
For starters, Welker is not 100%. He even said so yesterday, saying that his knee doesn't feel like it used to.
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From people that have seen him before and after the injury, I am hearing that he is slower, doesn't have the same burst, and hasn't been cutting like he used to. That should come back with time, but for know it sounds like his abilities are less than they were.
The other thing we don't know is how often he will be in games and how much they will use hi. He's only played a series or two in each preseason game. That's different than being in on all offensive plays.
I do think they will take it easy on Welker in the early going, so instead of him getting 8-10 catches a game like last year, I see maybe 4 or 5 to keep him fresh and ramping him up later in the year.
The question then becomes what happens to the the targets Welker was getting. Some will obviously go to Edelman, but the Pats have a lot more options than last year with Tate, Hernandez, and Gronkowski.
I think there will be only a few times where the Pats will use Edelman and Welker at the same time. Edelman has looked very good . . . running the same plays as Welker when Welker has been out. Last year, Edelman did play on the outside some with Welker and really didn't do a whole lot. It's hard to imagine formations and plays with Welker, Edelman, and tight ends all clogging the middle of the field and running short routes, but I suppose anything is possible.
As for Edelman, the rumor mill has him out with an ankle injury (which is why he hasn't practiced or played in two weeks). I have heard a wide range of speculation on how severe his injury could be, so I have no idea if his sitting is precautionary or if he has a longer term issue.
People I know saw him in person yesterday, but he did not answer questions on his injury. He was not in any protective gear, boots, or on crutches, so I guess that's a plus. It didn't sound like he was hobbled or had a severe limp either.
If both Welker and Edelman are healthy, I don't see Edelman getting much more than 2 or 3 short receptions a game. There are too many mouths to feed. Clearly he can put up Welker like numbers playing FOR Welker, but playing WITH Welker I have my doubts about how oftern he would be targeted.
As for returning kicks, the Pats have so many potential return guys that it's hard to really know who they will use. It could be Edleman. Or Price. Or Tate. Or McCourty. Or Maroney on kick offs. Or Slater. Or Welker later in the year. Or Faulk. Or Butler. A lot will depend on how much some of these guys are playing on offense or defense and how effective they are returning kicks.
Bottom line, I think Edelman's stock has taken a dip with Welker returning (even if he's not 100%), the rookie TEs coming on quickly, and Tate getting work opposite Moss. He's still worth having as Welker insurance, but at this point he would probably be a bench guy for fantasy purposes unless you play in very deep leagues or start a ton of players. (For example, I play in 16 team leagues that start 5-6 receiviers, so obviously he'd be in the mix). Obviously he has more value in PPR leagues. I think his numbers will be similar to last year, maybe 40-45 catches, 400-450 yards, and a couple TD.