Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
New Orleans at Atlanta (-3.5)
-The Saints had a tough time last week but the reality is they gift wrapped 14 points to SF and lost 28-21. Would this spread be 3.5 if New Orleans had won the game last week? I want to focus on keys to the game so let's focus on the Saints LT Jermon Bushrod vs DRE for Atlanta John Abraham. Some of you have already dozed off and are saying "MOP, what about Julio Jones?" This right here is the key to the game. If Brees has time to sit back and throw the football then things are going to be mighty interesting tonight. I look at Bushrod who had his hands full last week but before that he had not yielded an actual sack since week 1 when the Saints had no idea what to do without their HC. I look at the Saints like in Rocky III(uh oh movie analogy) where Stallone is going to the ring and all the sudden Clubber Lang(played by Roger Goodell of course) takes out Micky and Stallone gets his ### kicked much like the Saints. Enter Apollo Creed(Joe Vitt) who has had the Saints running wind sprints along the Mississippi and chasing chickens thru the French Quarter and has them lean, mean, and a fightin' machine.
The Haters: "MOP, you better have more than this."
Sit down and listen cause I got all kinds of goodies for tonight.
-John Abraham is a terrific DE and he has 9 sacks on the season but that stat can be very misleading. Now he doesn't have to record a bunch of sacks tonight to make his presence felt but he has feasted on terrible OLines. Look where most of his sacks came...SD, CAR, OAK, AZ, PHI(those are mostly bottom dwellers), all of them minus 1 in week 1 against KC. These two teams faced off a couple weeks ago and Abraham had a couple of QB pressures but he was pretty much a non factor and I look for Bushrod to win this challenge.
That is key match up #1 because as long as they handle Abraham, there isn't a lot of other spots for Atlanta to generate a big pass rush. Weatherspoon is back from injury but he is not dominant. I don't think Atlanta is going to want to blitz all that much as Brees can find the one on one match up and exploit it should that happen.
-We're going to continue this theme and move on to the Atlanta secondary which has been decent this year but they could have some issues tonight. Assante Samuel is far from 100%, but he's a warrior and will try to give it a go. Dunta Robinson has been getting some praise in the media but his Qb Rating allowed is 107. These are not shut down corners. Thomas DeCoud has 4 interceptions on the season but its been weeks, like early October since he picked off a pass and his tackling is up and down. SS-Moore has allowed almost a 100 QB passer rating so look for the Saints to try and exploit him a couple times.
That was key match up #2 and assuming NO can exploit the Falcons as they did a few weeks back, that means the Falcons will have to take to the air a lot.
So overall I feel the Falcons are ripe for the Saints to get things done and atone for their mistakes last week. Now some of you are saying big deal and when are we gonna focus on the skill position players. I understand but reading up on both the OL/DL play of both teams, trends in the secondary, that is where you are gonna find the real meat for these match ups. You can flip thru the stats at P-F-R, NFL, FBG...but you gotta dig deeper sometimes. Let's shift over to the Atlanta offense and the reason I do that now is I already feel even on a short week that Brees should have a strong game(300/3), must win situation if they have any hope of the playoffs. Imagine the Saints put up 30 tonight...what do you think Atlanta is going to do in return? Run Michael Turner?
The Falcons have Clabo and Baker who have combined for 43 QB rushes, 10 sacks allowed, 10 more QB hits, pretty avg IMO, the you have Justin Blalock at LG who leads the league in QB rushes allowed form that position(18), not good. I expect the Saints to blitz throughout the night and try to force Matt Ryan into making some bad decisions. Cameron Jordan and Will Smith must play up to the Falcons level tonight and get pressure even if they don't get sacks.
So on offense for the Saints I would start the usual suspects and at RB your guess is as good as mine. So much inconsistency but I do love watching Chris Ivory run the football and believe he could start some places.
For Atlanta I would assume if the Saints score 30+, they will be trying to shoot the lights out as well. How can you afford to sit JJ, White, or Gonzo? The bad news for Roddy White owners is that when Julio Jones has one of these 20-25 point nights, White is usually pretty quiet. The good news though is that Julio doesn't usually score 20-25 back to back weeks, in fact he is all over the map which is why he sits at #13 overall for WRs...that and he gets hurt causing him to miss time. I actually like the Saints tonight on a short week, I'll take the points in one of the rare offensive explosions on Thursday Night.
New Orleans 31...Atlanta 28
Good luck to everyone, and no I am not going to be doing every game this week so rest easy
-The Saints had a tough time last week but the reality is they gift wrapped 14 points to SF and lost 28-21. Would this spread be 3.5 if New Orleans had won the game last week? I want to focus on keys to the game so let's focus on the Saints LT Jermon Bushrod vs DRE for Atlanta John Abraham. Some of you have already dozed off and are saying "MOP, what about Julio Jones?" This right here is the key to the game. If Brees has time to sit back and throw the football then things are going to be mighty interesting tonight. I look at Bushrod who had his hands full last week but before that he had not yielded an actual sack since week 1 when the Saints had no idea what to do without their HC. I look at the Saints like in Rocky III(uh oh movie analogy) where Stallone is going to the ring and all the sudden Clubber Lang(played by Roger Goodell of course) takes out Micky and Stallone gets his ### kicked much like the Saints. Enter Apollo Creed(Joe Vitt) who has had the Saints running wind sprints along the Mississippi and chasing chickens thru the French Quarter and has them lean, mean, and a fightin' machine.
The Haters: "MOP, you better have more than this."
Sit down and listen cause I got all kinds of goodies for tonight. -John Abraham is a terrific DE and he has 9 sacks on the season but that stat can be very misleading. Now he doesn't have to record a bunch of sacks tonight to make his presence felt but he has feasted on terrible OLines. Look where most of his sacks came...SD, CAR, OAK, AZ, PHI(those are mostly bottom dwellers), all of them minus 1 in week 1 against KC. These two teams faced off a couple weeks ago and Abraham had a couple of QB pressures but he was pretty much a non factor and I look for Bushrod to win this challenge.
That is key match up #1 because as long as they handle Abraham, there isn't a lot of other spots for Atlanta to generate a big pass rush. Weatherspoon is back from injury but he is not dominant. I don't think Atlanta is going to want to blitz all that much as Brees can find the one on one match up and exploit it should that happen.
-We're going to continue this theme and move on to the Atlanta secondary which has been decent this year but they could have some issues tonight. Assante Samuel is far from 100%, but he's a warrior and will try to give it a go. Dunta Robinson has been getting some praise in the media but his Qb Rating allowed is 107. These are not shut down corners. Thomas DeCoud has 4 interceptions on the season but its been weeks, like early October since he picked off a pass and his tackling is up and down. SS-Moore has allowed almost a 100 QB passer rating so look for the Saints to try and exploit him a couple times.
That was key match up #2 and assuming NO can exploit the Falcons as they did a few weeks back, that means the Falcons will have to take to the air a lot.
So overall I feel the Falcons are ripe for the Saints to get things done and atone for their mistakes last week. Now some of you are saying big deal and when are we gonna focus on the skill position players. I understand but reading up on both the OL/DL play of both teams, trends in the secondary, that is where you are gonna find the real meat for these match ups. You can flip thru the stats at P-F-R, NFL, FBG...but you gotta dig deeper sometimes. Let's shift over to the Atlanta offense and the reason I do that now is I already feel even on a short week that Brees should have a strong game(300/3), must win situation if they have any hope of the playoffs. Imagine the Saints put up 30 tonight...what do you think Atlanta is going to do in return? Run Michael Turner?
The Falcons have Clabo and Baker who have combined for 43 QB rushes, 10 sacks allowed, 10 more QB hits, pretty avg IMO, the you have Justin Blalock at LG who leads the league in QB rushes allowed form that position(18), not good. I expect the Saints to blitz throughout the night and try to force Matt Ryan into making some bad decisions. Cameron Jordan and Will Smith must play up to the Falcons level tonight and get pressure even if they don't get sacks.
So on offense for the Saints I would start the usual suspects and at RB your guess is as good as mine. So much inconsistency but I do love watching Chris Ivory run the football and believe he could start some places.
For Atlanta I would assume if the Saints score 30+, they will be trying to shoot the lights out as well. How can you afford to sit JJ, White, or Gonzo? The bad news for Roddy White owners is that when Julio Jones has one of these 20-25 point nights, White is usually pretty quiet. The good news though is that Julio doesn't usually score 20-25 back to back weeks, in fact he is all over the map which is why he sits at #13 overall for WRs...that and he gets hurt causing him to miss time. I actually like the Saints tonight on a short week, I'll take the points in one of the rare offensive explosions on Thursday Night.
New Orleans 31...Atlanta 28
Good luck to everyone, and no I am not going to be doing every game this week so rest easy
Could have used a more standard FF friendly exploit/avoid with red/green fonts. But I understand. You want to change it up a bit. Thanks anyways for doing this. We needed some discussion started for tonights game.
