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New Tool: Impact of Receiver Drops (1 Viewer)

ebzded

Footballguy
In the early season I'm trying to give y'all 1-2 new tools per week to complement the excellent stats tools at FBG.

So far it looks like Target Sorter and Target Analyzer are the faves, followed by QB Sortable Stats and Passing Dashboard.

Today's new tool is Impact of Drops.  I suspect it won't be quite as fantasy relevant but maybe I'm wrong about that?  I've been wrong before.

Some observations and trivia from said tool:

  • Pre-injury, Big Ben was suffering from the highest drop rate in the league.
  • Of currently active QB's, Josh Rosen is now the "leader" in this category.
  • Prescott is 2nd, and therefore has suffered about as bad or worse than Wentz (3rd place), a fact which is driving a lot of saltiness on twitter between Cowboys/Eagles fans.
  • On the flip side, Wentz leads the league in absolute number of receiver errors (11), minimum yards lost on drops (179), and drops on deep throws (21+ air yards) with 4.
  • Both of these NFC east rivals have had 7 (!) receiver errors occur where the ball was thrown beyond the line to gain.
  • 7 of Wentz's 11 drops (and 135 of his 179 lost yds) happened in the 4th qtr of LAST WEEK, perhaps explaining the salience of the narrative.
  • So far this year, no one in the NFL has dropped a pass in OT.
  • Of all people, Derrick Henry leads the Titans in drops.  Must be all those deep routes he runs? ;)
  • Pittsburgh pass catchers don't play favorites, as Mason Rudolph is next up after Wentz, placing TWO Steelers QB's in the top 5 of drop/error rate.
  • Before going to the bench, Cam had the lowest drop rate in the NFL - probably in part due to the fact that he was throwing so many inaccurate passes?
  • Of high-volume passing attacks, the Falcons and Chiefs have the lowest drop rates.
Anyway, if there's a fantasy angle here, it's probably separating trend from noise:  ex: will Pitt's pass catchers continue to suck all year, or will they experience positive regression? 

Also, given that Wentz lost his two best wideouts for week 3, we can probably expect PHI to regress positively.  Buy low on Philly offense?

As always, plz feel free to ask questions, make suggestions, etc.  AND PLZ SHARE anything you find that's interesting!

MODS:  as I said in other threads, this is a side project/hobby, and I never intend to charge for it.  It's (hopefully) good advertising for my company's business data consulting services, but there's no intention to make money off the football crowd.  I'm a longtime subscriber (rcollie, look me up) and in all seriousness owe my career in data to Joe Bryant's VBD article many years ago. Much love.

 
The Unicorn is looking like he has a unihand. Preston Williams. And the moment I pick up Marquez Valdes-Scantling, I realize he has three drops. Great.

 
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Another interesting piece is that while Dak has similar numbers, only one of his drops were on 3rd down so it doesn't seem to have as large of an impact.  The 4 drops on 3rd down for Wentz equate to a lot more.  Surprising data though!

Yes, I'm an Eagles homer.

 

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