Next Years Draft strategy (1 Viewer)

[baronson]

this year, i did an experiment in my redraft league, and went WR/WR/WR/WR/QB/RB with some good success. we start only 1RB and 3 flex, so i have a bit more wiggle room than most, i realize. no PPR, btw.

anyway, i did this because i saw a LOT of risk with limited upside in many of the backs after the first 5 or so. i'm wondering if we're witnessing a paradigm shift in the way people either will, or should, approach a redraft next year. is it now wise to go after top WRs early rather than to stack your RB stable because nearly all teams have some sort of RBBC going on?? i mean, everyone needs their RBs, so maybe you still go RB in round 1, but move to stacking stud WRs for the next 2-3 rounds thereafter?

i know this is waaay too early, but thought it was an interesting discussion. seems this year you can succeed with the right amount of talent/depth at WR. plus, you can always land a RB who you actually know is producing through a trade if you do well at WR in the draft.... like i did this year. it seems like a sound, albeit contrarian theory.

 

[AcerFC]

I defnitely think it is viable especially in a 1ppr for WR and .5 or none for RBs.

 

[mggoilers]

I'm in 2 (12 team) re-draft leagues, I decided to go RB-WR-WR-BPA

In both those leagues, I'm in first place and leading the league in total points.

League 1 (4 spot)

Tiki

Steve Smith

Torry Holt

Gates

Bush

Droughns

Addai

League 2 (3 spot)

LT

CJ

Marvin

Willis

Shockey

Bulger

Evans

Gore

This strategy worked well this year in redraft, but you still have to draft the right player.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I'm in 2 (12 team) re-draft leagues, I decided to go RB-WR-WR-BPAIn both those leagues, I'm in first place and leading the league in total points.League 1 (4 spot)TikiSteve SmithTorry HoltGatesBushDroughnsAddai

The fact you were able to get Steve Smith AND Torry Holt AND Gates in Round 2 & 3 & 4 shows me that it may not have been your strategy which is why you are in first place, but the fact that your league seems to be lacking in skill.Steve Smith ADP of 12...you got him at 21Torry Holt ADP of 19...you got him at 28Gates ADP of 27...you got him at 45Bush ADP of 32...you got him at 52Droughns ADP of 30...you got him at 69In an average league, you wouldn't get a roster like that

 

[george]

ADP doesn't mean that is where they SHOULD be drafted. It just tells where the masses are drafting.

Scoring and lineup considerations (1RB starter) have considerable effect on when players should be drafted. Don't question the type of league that the guys plays in just because it's not like your league. I guess if you are in an AVERAGE league, then that's where they were all drafted. Eh?

Some of us like to play in above average leagues. I can't think of one league I played in where Gates or SSmith went nearly as high as the ADP you list.

 

[Nugget]

I will have two WR's in the first three rounds next season. It will depend on my initial draft position wheter it is RB-WR-WR, or WR-WR-RB. The only exception I could see is where Calvin Johnson's ADP is and who drafts him. There is a good chance he'll be my WR2 from the beginning if he is not a Raider.

 

[dwarfboy]

One of our playoff teams last year was pulling zero or close to it every week from his two rbs. I recognized this and drafted rb, wr, te, wr, wr, qb, wr, rb, wr, rb. I'm 9-1 despite drafting Cadillac with my first pick and Chad Johnson with my second pick. I've since traded BEdwards and JStevans for TJones, and traded away CJohnson for SA. It helped that those middle round RBs were Maroney and Barber. They basically carried me until I could make a trade. I thought I could get some value laterat rb because so many 2nd round rbs put of some very low scoring weeks. I figured half of a good running game could match a Droughns type back.

 

[Z-Dog]

Dumb luck always beats smart strategy. However, drafting is about selecting the best possible basket of risks vs. rewards, not about selecting the right players. This sounds counterintuitive, but it's true. We're not very good at predicting who exactly will do well and who will do poorly, but we're pretty decent at assigning how risky players are relative to one another. Now it's true that some high-risk players will turn out to be high reward, and some low risk players will disappoint, but if you select the right mix of high-risk and low-risk guys (and the right mix will depend heavily on your league rules), you will put yourself in position to win.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Some of us like to play in above average leagues. I can't think of one league I played in where Gates or SSmith went nearly as high as the ADP you list.

If you played in ABOVE average leagues, those two would probably be taken sooner than their ADP....not later.

 

[Buckle]

I don't think the days are over for going RB-RB in the first two rounds. Really depends on the talent from year to year and where they go. I think this year was probably the weakest class of RBs in the first round in a long time. As a reminder, a lot of these guys had question marks to start with anyways.

LJ and LT were certainly worth their high picks. Tiki is okay this year, really depends on your scoring because he's only getting by on yards alone. SJax is doing well so far. A guy like Rudi is doing well, but I think he's was picked high as being a safe pick.

Guys like Alexander, Portis, Edge, R Brown (underachieving offense), Jordan, and Caddy definitely didn't live up to their first round expectations (source Antsports).

In a situation like this year, unless you didn't have a top 3 pick, you were better off trading down your first round pick for more later picks.

 

[Reagan]

this year, i did an experiment in my redraft league, and went WR/WR/WR/WR/QB/RB with some good success. we start only 1RB and 3 flex, so i have a bit more wiggle room than most, i realize. no PPR, btw.anyway, i did this because i saw a LOT of risk with limited upside in many of the backs after the first 5 or so. i'm wondering if we're witnessing a paradigm shift in the way people either will, or should, approach a redraft next year. is it now wise to go after top WRs early rather than to stack your RB stable because nearly all teams have some sort of RBBC going on?? i mean, everyone needs their RBs, so maybe you still go RB in round 1, but move to stacking stud WRs for the next 2-3 rounds thereafter?i know this is waaay too early, but thought it was an interesting discussion. seems this year you can succeed with the right amount of talent/depth at WR. plus, you can always land a RB who you actually know is producing through a trade if you do well at WR in the draft.... like i did this year. it seems like a sound, albeit contrarian theory.

In our PPR league, I went LT/CJ/Fitz/Gore.....almost everyone else had RBs in 1/2. CJ and Fitz were the first two WRs chosen and for many weeks that has really hurt me. I almost chose Holt/Smith...it was a coin toss among the top 4 and I chose poorly. On your point...I think it will depend on the year, but in a PPR format (which we switched to this year) and with relatively few can't miss RBs, I think RB/WR/WR could be a pretty good play. You have to get lucky with your RB2 and RB3 in rounds 4-6, though.

 

[mggoilers]

The fact you were able to get Steve Smith AND Torry Holt AND Gates in Round 2 & 3 & 4 shows me that it may not have been your strategy which is why you are in first place, but the fact that your league seems to be lacking in skill.Steve Smith ADP of 12...you got him at 21Torry Holt ADP of 19...you got him at 28Gates ADP of 27...you got him at 45Bush ADP of 32...you got him at 52Droughns ADP of 30...you got him at 69In an average league, you wouldn't get a roster like that

Steve Smith was fighting hamstring issues throughout preseason, and the draft was 3 days before the season started. Holt was also fighting lower leg injuries. Lav Coles was stellar the first few weeks waiting for Smith. Gates was a question mark due to Rivers. All in all, most people went crazy for RB's early and some QB's went in the first 3 rounds...Manning, Palmer, Manning, McNabb, Brady.I made a point to stick the strategy early, but I can only draft who is there...

 

[Buckna]

I'm in 2 (12 team) re-draft leagues, I decided to go RB-WR-WR-BPAIn both those leagues, I'm in first place and leading the league in total points.League 1 (4 spot)TikiSteve SmithTorry HoltGatesBushDroughnsAddai

The fact you were able to get Steve Smith AND Torry Holt AND Gates in Round 2 & 3 & 4 shows me that it may not have been your strategy which is why you are in first place, but the fact that your league seems to be lacking in skill.Steve Smith ADP of 12...you got him at 21Torry Holt ADP of 19...you got him at 28Gates ADP of 27...you got him at 45Bush ADP of 32...you got him at 52Droughns ADP of 30...you got him at 69In an average league, you wouldn't get a roster like that

I disagree. All those players (except maybe Bush) are within their standard deviations on antsports. I would look at the type of players, not the individual names. RB, stud WR, stud WR was certainly a possible way to draft this year, I've been doing it for years.This says nothing of how ineffective ADP is as a drafting tool when comparing to individual leagues. The average league does not draft where it is tracked by a service like antsports or other site specializing in fantasy football. My personal belief is the vast majority of the leauges tracked that make up ADP statistics are indeed "shark" drafts, not at all average or "guppy" leagues.

 

[avoiding injuries]

Next year my first four rounds will consist of 2 RB's and 2 Wr's in any order with the best available player dictating the position.

 

[Marc Levin]

Stud-RB = guppy.

Going RB-RB b/c that is the best value at each of your 1st two picks = shark.

 

[my man otis]

Chad J

Moss

Fitz

Boldin

Chambers

that's 5 out of the top 10 WRs that are not playing up to expectations so far (johnson's huge game is just that, one huge game and most of the rest stinkers).

It's not who you pick, it's when you pick them.

 

[Marc Levin]

It's not who you pick, it's when you pick them.

I don't think that's the answer - even if you got insane value on Lamont Jordan, Chambers, Edge and RMoss, you'd be in the toilet.That's why value through out your entire draft, not just the overanalyzed first two rounds, and smart waiver play, are HELLA more important than any first four rounds draft strategyYou pick with value and not with a comfort that your first four picks will pull you through and you have guys like McAllister, Grossman, Berrian, Donald Driver, FTaylor, etc. on your team.

 

[tandl71]

Frankly, I tend to wind up with better teams through waiver/FA pickups when I don't "love" my team after a draft. Could have had Colston, Travis Henry, etc. if I didn't fall in love with the likes of Troy Williamson, Matt Jones, etc....

Also, I will NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER draft a TE (like Antonio Gates) in the early 3rd or 4th round again. I passed too many studs like K. Jones, C. Taylor, Frank Gore, Anquan Boldin, et. al to acquire him, and we know where that's going this year.

 

[my man otis]

It's not who you pick, it's when you pick them.

I don't think that's the answer - even if you got insane value on Lamont Jordan, Chambers, Edge and RMoss, you'd be in the toilet.That's why value through out your entire draft, not just the overanalyzed first two rounds, and smart waiver play, are HELLA more important than any first four rounds draft strategyYou pick with value and not with a comfort that your first four picks will pull you through and you have guys like McAllister, Grossman, Berrian, Donald Driver, FTaylor, etc. on your team.

Not well phrased. It's both who you draft and where you draft them.

 

[maddawg2020]

I'm in a 10-team redraft league. It's all about BEST value. I prefer to go 2 RB's in rounds 1 & 2 but if value presents itself elsewhere I gotta go with that. this year I had the #2 pick:

1.02 Tomlinson

2.09 C. Johnson

3.02 R. Moss

4.09 D. Foster

5.02 F. Gore

Luckily I was able to get Colston and Des Clark on waivers and I've gotten a little luck with my schedule. I'm 7-3 with six of the nine other teams at 5-5.

 

[Marc Levin]

It's not who you pick, it's when you pick them.

I don't think that's the answer - even if you got insane value on Lamont Jordan, Chambers, Edge and RMoss, you'd be in the toilet.That's why value through out your entire draft, not just the overanalyzed first two rounds, and smart waiver play, are HELLA more important than any first four rounds draft strategyYou pick with value and not with a comfort that your first four picks will pull you through and you have guys like McAllister, Grossman, Berrian, Donald Driver, FTaylor, etc. on your team.

Not well phrased. It's both who you draft and where you draft them.

Once the season starts, where you drafted a player does not matter, but getting players for value throughout the draft is (generally) the best way to get a sufficient balance of backups with upside that a surprise from your backups can help offset an unforseen stumble early in the draft.

 

[TLEF316]

in PPR, i definetly think going WR in the one of the first 2 rounds is the way to go. My league is a keeper, so that may skew things, but my team is 7-3 without any RB production (Alexander injury, Willis pretty inneffective, Deangelo hasnt emerged, Leon has only given me a few decent weeks)

Now, my WR stable is pretty stacked (see sig) so that kinda skews things, but i think we are seing alot less inconsistency from 2nd tier guys. With the new illegal contact rules, its much harder to shut WR's down. In my league, 6 catches for 60 yards is the same as 60 yards and a TD. PPr makes it much easier to compete without a solid RB2, making going RB/WR a viable option.

 

[Rogi]

Next year my first four rounds will consist of 2 RB's and 2 Wr's in any order with the best available player dictating the position.

Would you pass on Manning or Palmer in the first four rounds just to fill your 2 RB and 2 WR requirement? Our league gives 6 points to QBs for each TD. Manning usually goes in the top five in our league. If I was at the 5th pick or lower and Manning was available, I would have to bite. Also, if you were at the 11th or 12th pick, would you take 2 WRs back to back? I noticed VBD values WRs quite a bit, but my intuition tells me not to wait until the third round to grab RB1.BTW, I just finished my worst season of FF and can't even qualify for the playoffs. This gives me a long nine months to think about next years draft.

 

[avoiding injuries]

Next year my first four rounds will consist of 2 RB's and 2 Wr's in any order with the best available player dictating the position.

Would you pass on Manning or Palmer in the first four rounds just to fill your 2 RB and 2 WR requirement? Our league gives 6 points to QBs for each TD. Manning usually goes in the top five in our league. If I was at the 5th pick or lower and Manning was available, I would have to bite. Also, if you were at the 11th or 12th pick, would you take 2 WRs back to back? I noticed VBD values WRs quite a bit, but my intuition tells me not to wait until the third round to grab RB1.BTW, I just finished my worst season of FF and can't even qualify for the playoffs. This gives me a long nine months to think about next years draft.

Yes, I will skip over Manning and Palmer and take a Brady, Brees, Rivers, Bulger later. Someone always takes those guys at their ADP and usually earlier.No, I would not go WR, WR at 11 and 12. You would have to wait 22 picks(34 overall) to get your RB1. That will end your season right there. I stand behind drafting 2 RB's and 2 WR's in my first 4 rounds. I'm also liking taking some rookie rb's in the mid-late rounds. They seem to be geting some good playing time later in the year after some good RB1-2's have gone down. Addia saved me yesterday and D Williams and Maroney and putting up some points.

 

[onionsack]

this year, i did an experiment in my redraft league, and went WR/WR/WR/WR/QB/RB with some good success. we start only 1RB and 3 flex, so i have a bit more wiggle room than most, i realize. no PPR, btw..............

at characterizing a 50% reduction in the number of required starting RBs as "a bit more wiggle room".

 

[coolnerd]

Your draft strategy should consist of :

1- Talent

2- Roster requirements

3- Scoring

4- Draft Position

5- Adjusting your pre-draft strategy to what actually happens.

I have had the best success as a fantasy player once I stopped trying to fit templates over the dynamic activity that a draft can be.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

It's not who you pick, it's when you pick them.

I don't think that's the answer - even if you got insane value on Lamont Jordan, Chambers, Edge and RMoss, you'd be in the toilet.That's why value through out your entire draft, not just the overanalyzed first two rounds, and smart waiver play, are HELLA more important than any first four rounds draft strategyYou pick with value and not with a comfort that your first four picks will pull you through and you have guys like McAllister, Grossman, Berrian, Donald Driver, FTaylor, etc. on your team.

Not well phrased. It's both who you draft and where you draft them.

Once the season starts, where you drafted a player does not matter, but getting players for value throughout the draft is (generally) the best way to get a sufficient balance of backups with upside that a surprise from your backups can help offset an unforseen stumble early in the draft.

I couldnt agree more with all of the above. Drafting value well throughout your draft is how you win your league. Deep drafts translate into trade bait later and positional depth. And as the season wears on RB depth should remain the key to any championship drive.Good luck counting on WRs to produce weekly after November - usually in Decemebr its the RBs that lead the way.Caveat: Unless the WR is one of the Top 5. But you can say that about every position.

 

[SwampDawg]

I tried something similiar this year, drafting #3 in a 12 team, I went in planning on going RB, WR then either WR, RB or RB, WR depending on value. But the way the draft was falling I ended up going RB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB and it has worked out nicely. The picks I got were LT, Fitz, Chambers (this has been the biggest disappointment but in a start 3WR league he has been a solid WR3), TJ, and then picked up Droughns (ughh) and Thomas Jones. Worked out pretty well as I'm 11-1 and already locked up the first round playoff bye. Of course LT's performance is a big part of that and the fact I had decent QB depth with Eli and Kitna allowed me to trade Eli and T. Jones a couple weeks ago at the deadline to a team desperate for QB help and an abbundance of RB's and get Willie Parker back.

 

[lions327]

Your draft strategy should consist of :1- Talent2- Roster requirements3- Scoring 4- Draft Position5- Adjusting your pre-draft strategy to what actually happens. I have had the best success as a fantasy player once I stopped trying to fit templates over the dynamic activity that a draft can be.