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NFL 2021 WEEK TWO DFS (1 Viewer)

FatNate

FatNate

Footballguy
I do not gurantee these are 100% accurate, but I think they are close enough to get the conversation started.

Cowboys 26 Chargers 29.5

Titans 24.25 Seahawks 29.75

Falcons 19.5 Buccaneers 32.5

Vikings 23.25 Cardinals 27.75

49ers 26.75 Eagles 23.25

Raiders 21 Steelers 27.5

Saints 25.75 Panthers 22.25

Texans 17.75 Browns 30.25

Bills 25.75 Dolphins 22.25

Rams 25.75 Colts 21.75

Broncos 25.75 Jaguars 19.75

Bengals 21 Bears 24

Patriots 24.5 Jets 18.5

 
I would assume lots of ATL/TB and DAL/LAC stacks this week.

As usual, I am sure it will be an interesting week, as more research and details are unearthed.

My current placeholder:

Herbert - CMC/Kamara/Edmonds - Lamb/Williams (LAC)/Brown (TB) - Pitts - Jaguars

Gets me into the ATL/TB and DAL/LAC games, as well as, corrolates the NOS/CAR game with two high volume RBs.

Jacksonville defense is cheap and will be low owned (I believe), but I am not sure they are a good choice.

Let's see how much it changes this week, once we get feel for ownership.

 
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FatNate said:
I would assume lots of ATL/TB and DAL/LAC stacks this week.

As usual, I am sure it will be an interesting week, as more research and details are unearthed.

My current placeholder:

Herbert - CMC/Kamara/Edmonds - Lamb/Williams (LAC)/Brown (TB) - Pitts - Jaguars

Gets me into the ATL/TB and DAL/LAC games, as well as, corrolates the NOS/CAR game with two high volume RBs.

Jacksonville defense is cheap and will be low owned (I believe), but I am not sure they are a good choice.

Let's see how much it changes this week, once we get feel for ownership.
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I assumed this as well.  I do love Az/min stacks too.  

for gpps Week 2, I love looking at people that underperformed week 1 and/or players that looked like they got a ton of targets/touches, but it didn't show up in the box scores.  

I have the next 2 days off, so I will be looking at all that (realizing small sample size) and post stuff later.  

 
Again, small sample alert, but I was still looking at stuff to get an idea of where I might be going.    I see FN posted the totals, so I looked up pace of play, and it looks like the top 3 games for pace are:

Buff/Mia, Atl/TB,  Dall/LaC       

2 of those are top games that people will be targeting already, but I found that 1st one interesting for gpps.   

There were 2 games I also wrote down b/c it was a fast paced team meeting a slower paced team.    LaR/Indy and Minn/Az     Minn did pick up the pace when they were down by a TD though.  

 
 In order of high pass attempts:  Dak, Carr, Allen, Lawrence, Brady (50+ attempts for those 5),  Cousins, Herbert.  

In order of rush attempts:  Allen, Hurts, Darnold, Murray, Wilson, Dak.     Allan also had 3 rushes inside the 10.  What I thought was interesting was that Herbert had 4 rushes inside the 10.   

I think this is at least a good place to start for Qbs, especially when a lot of them are in the pace games I listed above.  

 
Top teams on OL/DL rush potential list:  Clev, LaR, SF, Seat, Cinci, Az, LaC, TB, NE.     The bolded are home faves.   All but Cinci are faves for the week.  

RBs in order of touches:

Mixon, CMC, (30+) 

Cook, Ingram, D.Harris, J.Taylor, Henry   (20+)

Carson, E.Mitchell, Sanders, M.Davis, Chubb, N.Harris, Henderson, D.Mont, Connor, Edmonds (16+)

The bolded had 4 or more targets as well.   Again, a lot of overlap for the OL/DL matchups and team faves.  

 
WR targets:

14+ = Cooper, Lamb, Diggs, Godwin

12+ = K.Allen, Beasley, Chark, D.Samuel, M.Williams

10+ =  A.Rob, D.Johnson, Kupp, Thielen

8+ =  Jefferson,  Marvin Jones, Meyers, KJ Osborn, Renfroe, Shenault, AJ Brown, Hopkins, DJ Moore, Ridley, E.Sanders, D.Smith, JuJu 

The bolded also showed up as having multiple targets inside the RZ. 

 
Defenses that showed up on the DL/OL  sack potential list:

Seat, Phil, NE, Min, LaR, Tenn, Az, LV, Buff

Bolded were in the top 10 for pressure rate too.  

 
I used the optimizer this morning.  Set it for two stacks:  QB+RB/WR/TE (same team) with RB/WR/TE (opposing team) and RB/WR/TE with RB/WR/TE (opposing team).  I eliminated some of the lower total games.  I keyed on QBs from the higher total games.  It built me 80 lineups.  Optimizers are only as good as the program and the information provided, but I still thought it was worth sharing.

RB:  Najee was in 100% of the lineups.  Henderson 66%.  Carson 45%.  CMC 38%

WR:  Lamb was in 68% of the lineups.  Kupp 58%.  Ridley 56%

TE:  Waller was in 95% of the lineups.

DEF:  Carolina was in 45%.  Cleveland 21%.  NYJ 15%.

 
KarmaPolice said:
Again, small sample alert, but I was still looking at stuff to get an idea of where I might be going.    I see FN posted the totals, so I looked up pace of play, and it looks like the top 3 games for pace are:

Buff/Mia, Atl/TB,  Dall/LaC       

2 of those are top games that people will be targeting already, but I found that 1st one interesting for gpps.   

There were 2 games I also wrote down b/c it was a fast paced team meeting a slower paced team.    LaR/Indy and Minn/Az     Minn did pick up the pace when they were down by a TD though.  
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I think the Buf/Mia might be a good one to go after this week.  Personally, I do not love it, but I can see it going under owned, based on last week's results.  People often react to the quickly to poor performance, without truly investigating it.

 
KarmaPolice said:
TE targets:

Waller (19 ??!!)

8 targets = Cook, Fant, Gronk, O'Shaunessey, Pitts

7 = Kmet

6 = Higbee
Click to expand...


Waller's numbers were huge in week one.  I believe he will be immensely popular this week.  I believe I am going to take a stand against him and the field.  I will be under compared to most.  I believe I will be focusing most of my TE plays on Pitts and Kittle.  This is my early week lean, so it could change, but right now that is my feeling.

 
FatNate said:
I think the Buf/Mia might be a good one to go after this week.  Personally, I do not love it, but I can see it going under owned, based on last week's results.  People often react to the quickly to poor performance, without truly investigating it.
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I am not sure about an all out game stack or anything, but something like Allen/WR + Waddle  or using Diggs/Waddle for a 2nd correlation.   

Honestly looking at all the stuff and the target info, I am not sure how I get off that LAC/Dall game too much.    I guess that's what everybody is thinking, so I am sure I will have some LUs that take Zeke or Ekeler from that game and stack another game.  

 
FatNate said:
I used the optimizer this morning.  Set it for two stacks:  QB+RB/WR/TE (same team) with RB/WR/TE (opposing team) and RB/WR/TE with RB/WR/TE (opposing team).  I eliminated some of the lower total games.  I keyed on QBs from the higher total games.  It built me 80 lineups.  Optimizers are only as good as the program and the information provided, but I still thought it was worth sharing.

RB:  Najee was in 100% of the lineups.  Henderson 66%.  Carson 45%.  CMC 38%

WR:  Lamb was in 68% of the lineups.  Kupp 58%.  Ridley 56%

TE:  Waller was in 95% of the lineups.

DEF:  Carolina was in 45%.  Cleveland 21%.  NYJ 15%.
Click to expand...
Nice info - thanks!   A lot of players correlating here to what I posted above, which is always good to see.     Early pods were gushing about N.Harris and how much he was on the field, and that it would be a good week to pounce on him since he underperformed.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
I am not sure about an all out game stack or anything, but something like Allen/WR + Waddle  or using Diggs/Waddle for a 2nd correlation.   

Honestly looking at all the stuff and the target info, I am not sure how I get off that LAC/Dall game too much.    I guess that's what everybody is thinking, so I am sure I will have some LUs that take Zeke or Ekeler from that game and stack another game.  
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Agree on both points.  It is hard to get away from the LAC/DAL game.  I also agree that I only want Allen with BUF WR and the run back with a MIA WR/TE.  I have no interest any other pieces from that game.

 
FatNate said:
Waller's numbers were huge in week one.  I believe he will be immensely popular this week.  I believe I am going to take a stand against him and the field.  I will be under compared to most.  I believe I will be focusing most of my TE plays on Pitts and Kittle.  This is my early week lean, so it could change, but right now that is my feeling.
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My gut reaction is that he is way too cheap on FD.    I think I might do the opposite and go way over - 75-100%.   I think the only times I will get off him might be in LUs where I am stacking LaC and using Cook or TB and using Gronk.   I get that 19 targets isn't happening every week, but IMO he is the only one on the slate that has 10+ target upside.    I will have to think about this though.  

 
FatNate said:
I used the optimizer this morning.  Set it for two stacks:  QB+RB/WR/TE (same team) with RB/WR/TE (opposing team) and RB/WR/TE with RB/WR/TE (opposing team).  I eliminated some of the lower total games.  I keyed on QBs from the higher total games.  It built me 80 lineups.  Optimizers are only as good as the program and the information provided, but I still thought it was worth sharing.

RB:  Najee was in 100% of the lineups.  Henderson 66%.  Carson 45%.  CMC 38%

WR:  Lamb was in 68% of the lineups.  Kupp 58%.  Ridley 56%

TE:  Waller was in 95% of the lineups.

DEF:  Carolina was in 45%.  Cleveland 21%.  NYJ 15%.
Click to expand...


This research developed the following the lineup:

Herbert-Henderson/Najee/CMC-Williams (LAC)/Kupp/Lamb-Waller-Cleveland

 
I'm going with Mahomes and Murray as QB stacks, And then game stacks for DAL-LAC and TEN-SEA. 40 entries into the Sunday Millions.

Obviously I missed that the KC game is the Sunday late game, so swapping out Mahomes for Josh Allen...

QBs (number of LUs in paren): Allen (8), Murray (8), Herbert (8), Wilson (8), Dak (4), Tannehill (4). Will stack each with at least one of the WR/TE (Kelce) and the opposing WR1 (trying it again).

RBs I like: CMC, Dalvin, Chubb, Carson, Henry, Mixon, Najee, Zeke. Will use ONLY them throughout my 40 LUs.

I'll let the builder do the rest.

So, OBJ already ruled out for Sunday so....

For our league (I finished 2nd place in week 1 and likely would have won if not for Mostert's injury): Brady - Fournette, Zeke - Ridley, Keenan, Landry, Antonio Brown  - Pitts - Denver D

 
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I realize a lot of this stuff is general DFS information, but are you guys talking about Fan Duel when you discuss lineups?

 
Steeler said:
I realize a lot of this stuff is general DFS information, but are you guys talking about Fan Duel when you discuss lineups?
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My LU above was FD.   

The give away for me is I always have RB in flex on FD, and WR in flex on DK when I am posting gpp LUs.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
My gut reaction is that he is way too cheap on FD.    I think I might do the opposite and go way over - 75-100%.   I think the only times I will get off him might be in LUs where I am stacking LaC and using Cook or TB and using Gronk.   I get that 19 targets isn't happening every week, but IMO he is the only one on the slate that has 10+ target upside.    I will have to think about this though.  
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Not that you are wrong, but Pittsburg has ridiculous defensive performance against TEs.  Something like 3 TDs allowed dating back to 2019.  Now waller is more like a wide receiver but its a tough matchup, and Baltimore currently has secondary issues that Pittsburg does not.  Speaking of Baltimore, Kelce gets them this week.  Speaking of the Falcons (ok, nobody did) Gronk gets the Falcons this week.  :D

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Not that you are wrong, but Pittsburg has ridiculous defensive performance against TEs.  Something like 3 TDs allowed dating back to 2019.  Now waller is more like a wide receiver but its a tough matchup, and Baltimore currently has secondary issues that Pittsburg does not.  Speaking of Baltimore, Kelce gets them this week.  Speaking of the Falcons (ok, nobody did) Gronk gets the Falcons this week.  :D
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I realized I made a couple mistakes when I was writing players down.   1 was forgetting Kittle in the TEs, so I thought it was Waller and then everybody else.   The other was for some reason I didn't include Kamara in the Rbs.  

 
I haven't seen ownership yet, so maybe he will be more popular when that comes out, but I was curious if anybody watched the Atl/Az game last week, and had a reason why Pitts didn't score much.   I was looking at the target and air yards market share that finally updated, and he was near 30% each for the stats which is awesome for a TE.   I was just curious if it was a Ryan or a Pitts thing.    Also since he was popular and dudded last week, he might be lower owned this week.

 
KarmaPolice said:
I haven't seen ownership yet, so maybe he will be more popular when that comes out, but I was curious if anybody watched the Atl/Az game last week, and had a reason why Pitts didn't score much.   I was looking at the target and air yards market share that finally updated, and he was near 30% each for the stats which is awesome for a TE.   I was just curious if it was a Ryan or a Pitts thing.    Also since he was popular and dudded last week, he might be lower owned this week.
Click to expand...


I did not follow the game, but I did notice the same stats you mentioned.  I am in Pitts this week.  I prefer him over Ridley as my run back in that TB/ATL game.  I also plan to use him regardless of coloration this week.  I am assuming, that a few people will stay away from him after he disappointed in week one, which is also a plus.  Looks like he trending at 12% ownership, in the early data, which makes him the fourth most popular TE option.

 
KarmaPolice said:
I haven't seen ownership yet, so maybe he will be more popular when that comes out, but I was curious if anybody watched the Atl/Az game last week, and had a reason why Pitts didn't score much.   I was looking at the target and air yards market share that finally updated, and he was near 30% each for the stats which is awesome for a TE.   I was just curious if it was a Ryan or a Pitts thing.    Also since he was popular and dudded last week, he might be lower owned this week.
Click to expand...
Do you pay for ownership?  I've had no luck finding a reliable free source for this.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Do you pay for ownership?  I've had no luck finding a reliable free source for this.
Click to expand...
@SeniorVBDStudent

Yes-ish?    I usually stumble across deals - ie deposit $10 in X site for a free year of X service sort of thing.   This year I found something for 4for4.    I think ownership and a decent LU generator is what most people pay the $ for, and usually ownership is what is behind the paywall.  

I did find THIS though, which is as good as anything.   Ownership projections are never 100%, and I worry less about the exact % and more of the "who are the most popular plays" type of big picture.   Also good to look at ownership and get an idea of what the popular build will be for the sites.   

 
FatNate said:
I did not follow the game, but I did notice the same stats you mentioned.  I am in Pitts this week.  I prefer him over Ridley as my run back in that TB/ATL game.  I also plan to use him regardless of coloration this week.  I am assuming, that a few people will stay away from him after he disappointed in week one, which is also a plus.  Looks like he trending at 12% ownership, in the early data, which makes him the fourth most popular TE option.
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Yeah, 4for4 has him at 3rd highest again, behind Waller and Kittle.   I am going to have to really think about this one.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
@SeniorVBDStudent

Yes-ish?    I usually stumble across deals - ie deposit $10 in X site for a free year of X service sort of thing.   This year I found something for 4for4.    I think ownership and a decent LU generator is what most people pay the $ for, and usually ownership is what is behind the paywall.  

I did find THIS though, which is as good as anything.   Ownership projections are never 100%, and I worry less about the exact % and more of the "who are the most popular plays" type of big picture.   Also good to look at ownership and get an idea of what the popular build will be for the sites.   
Click to expand...
Thanks.  I saw that free one and one other free one.  Have you compared the ownership projections on 4for4 with this free one?  Earlier in the week it looked like both the free sites had very questionable info about ownership so I hesitate to believe the data.  Rotogrinders has a weekly NFL DFS thread where a regular posts ownerships end of week, but its usually DK only and only once in a while FD.  I'm FD exclusively so sometimes out of luck.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Thanks.  I saw that free one and one other free one.  Have you compared the ownership projections on 4for4 with this free one?  Earlier in the week it looked like both the free sites had very questionable info about ownership so I hesitate to believe the data.  Rotogrinders has a weekly NFL DFS thread where a regular posts ownerships end of week, but its usually DK only and only once in a while FD.  I'm FD exclusively so sometimes out of luck.
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They are a bit different.   On 4 for 4 the top owned at each position are: (for FD)

Herbert, Dak, Wilson, Brady

Harris, Kamara, Ekeler, Cook, Chubb

Seattle 2 Wrs, Dall 2 WRs, AJ Brown, Kupp, Allen

Waller, Kittle, Pitts  

Clev, TB, Denv, NE

So it looks like the most they agreed on were the RBs.   

 
Top ownership that I have access too:

QB:  13%-11%. Herbert>Allen>Murray>Dak

RB:  31%-21%. Najee>CMC>Kamara>Ekeler>Henderson>Carson

WR:  21%-17%. Lamb>Diggs>Brown>Hopkins>Chase

TE:  22%-12%. Kittle>Waller>Higbe>Pitts

DEF:  19%-11%. Browns>Bucs>Broncos

 
FatNate said:
Top ownership that I have access too:

QB:  13%-11%. Herbert>Allen>Murray>Dak

RB:  31%-21%. Najee>CMC>Kamara>Ekeler>Henderson>Carson

WR:  21%-17%. Lamb>Diggs>Brown>Hopkins>Chase

TE:  22%-12%. Kittle>Waller>Higbe>Pitts

DEF:  19%-11%. Browns>Bucs>Broncos
Click to expand...


A lot of similar names.    Maybe the sites disagree on order, but they seem to be pointing to the same games and top players that will be highly owned.   

 
Jacobs out.  We all in on Drake?  $5500. Probably see 15 touches.  Against a decent Steelers defense.  I need to study a bit more, on the surface I don’t expect to have any. 

 
Awesomeo has a podcast channel.  They have a quick one that lists their top 5 at each position for each site.  I like that they base it on % players hit 30pts + % they are in optimal lus.  

I will post them tonight when I get on the computer.  one thing that did stand out was the differences of their TES between the two sites.  

 
Here was the pods top 5s for FanDuel:

QB:  Herbert, Allen, Murray, Brady, Dak

RB:  N.Harris, Cook, Carson, Ekeler, Kamara

WR:  Diggs, Kupp, Lamb, K.Allen, Metcalf

TE:   Waller, Kittle, Pitts, Higbee, Fant

 
..and for DK:

QB:   Herbert, J.Allen, Brady, Dak, Hurts

RB:   N.Harris, Carson, Zeke, D.Mont, Cook

WR:  Kupp, Godwin, K.Allen, Cooper, Beasley

TE:   Higbee, Fant, Kittle, Cook, Pitts

 
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Reviewing lineups this morning.  I don’t have much Buf, specifically, Allen and Diggs.  It’s not that I don’t like them, I just like others better.  They don’t seem to fit my builds.  I have a couple Allen with Diggs, but not much compared to my total lineups built.  I have almost no Diggs as a one off.  Am I making a mistake?  How do we feel about Diggs this week?  

Also, I am all over the LAC/Dal game, but I am concerned that I am not using enough Elliott. He projects at 10% ownership in the highest total on the board.  He gets the snaps.  I think we might be making a mistake writing him off. Any thoughts on Zeke this week?

 
KarmaPolice said:
Here was the pods top 5s for FanDuel:

QB:  Herbert, Allen, Murray, Brady, Dak

RB:  N.Harris, Cook, Carson, Ekeler, Kamara

WR:  Diggs, Kupp, Lamb, K.Allen, Metcalf

TE:   Waller, Kittle, Pitts, Higbee, Fant
Click to expand...
My lineups and strategy may not be unique enough this week, but I am hammering everyone you have listed.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
Here was the pods top 5s for FanDuel:

QB:  Herbert, Allen, Murray, Brady, Dak

RB:  N.Harris, Cook, Carson, Ekeler, Kamara

WR:  Diggs, Kupp, Lamb, K.Allen, Metcalf

TE:   Waller, Kittle, Pitts, Higbee, Fant
Click to expand...
From this list I am probably under weight on Allen, Cook, and Diggs.  But, I do have a good amount of the others. 

 
Raging weasel said:
FD. Thurs-Mon lineup

Mahomes Chubb Williams(Den) Brown(TB)Kupp Renfrow Kelce Aaron Jones Cle
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Lamar-Najee/CEH/Henry-Metcalf/Lamb/Allen-Andrews-Packers for my Sun-Mon lineup.

I used Rodgers with Adams for Thu-Mon lineup. 

 
FatNate said:
My lineups and strategy may not be unique enough this week, but I am hammering everyone you have listed.  
Click to expand...
I wrote down ownership for each, and about the only ones that are lower owned on the list is Diggs, Fant, Higbee.   

I think this list is good for the core of a gpp, or for a cash/cash+ type of LU, but for bigger gpps we probably need to find a couple pivots.  

 
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