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Week 5 DFs (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter FatNate
- Start date
FatNate
Footballguy
I am glad the Rams/Seahawks and Bills/Chiefs are not on the main slate.
I believe the Packers/Bengals game will be a shootout. I do not expect Mixon to play, so it is a perfect opporttunity for the Bengals to turn the offense over Burrow for a 50 pass attempt game. Also, assuming Mixon sits, it will open up value with the Bengals RBs (Perine and Evans -- I prefer attacking this game with QB and WR, but if I have to pick one give me Evans). I am expecting Tee Higgins to be back this week, which just adds another WR weapon for the Bengals. I think the Packers are always easy to target, since we know Rodgers, Jones, and Adams are such a focus on their offense. Packers defense is average and statistically the Bengals defense is very good, but in a larger sample size I think they will prove to be average, and not the kind of defense capable of stopping Rodgers.
The injury report will need to be monitored. I am not sure how ownership will come in on this one either. My early week, first impression, is that this is a good game to target.
I believe the Packers/Bengals game will be a shootout. I do not expect Mixon to play, so it is a perfect opporttunity for the Bengals to turn the offense over Burrow for a 50 pass attempt game. Also, assuming Mixon sits, it will open up value with the Bengals RBs (Perine and Evans -- I prefer attacking this game with QB and WR, but if I have to pick one give me Evans). I am expecting Tee Higgins to be back this week, which just adds another WR weapon for the Bengals. I think the Packers are always easy to target, since we know Rodgers, Jones, and Adams are such a focus on their offense. Packers defense is average and statistically the Bengals defense is very good, but in a larger sample size I think they will prove to be average, and not the kind of defense capable of stopping Rodgers.
The injury report will need to be monitored. I am not sure how ownership will come in on this one either. My early week, first impression, is that this is a good game to target.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I'm getting my ### handed to me this year. The bolded was one of my first thoughts too, especially Bills/Chiefs. I think this evens out the odds for an odd team to go off. I'm also tired of C.Patterson destroying every week, and that isn't on the main slate either.FatNate said:
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
I'm down on FD for the year... lost money last year too... not sure what my problem is with this site, lol
I'm actually up at DK so far this year but I got lucky by entering the milly maker with crowns and winning $50. Also turned an $8 free ticket into $30. Basically break even on the rest of the entries.
I also just missed (possibly) winning $1000 on Monday night. Entered $1 Showdown contest and came in like ~250th place or whatever but only 5 points out of first. I also had a unique lineup so if Brate had scored TB's TD instead of Jones I would have had more points than the winner. I say possibly because I didn't look at 250 entries above me to see if any of them had Brate
I'm actually up at DK so far this year but I got lucky by entering the milly maker with crowns and winning $50. Also turned an $8 free ticket into $30. Basically break even on the rest of the entries.
I also just missed (possibly) winning $1000 on Monday night. Entered $1 Showdown contest and came in like ~250th place or whatever but only 5 points out of first. I also had a unique lineup so if Brate had scored TB's TD instead of Jones I would have had more points than the winner. I say possibly because I didn't look at 250 entries above me to see if any of them had Brate
FatNate
Footballguy
I reviewed the most FanDuel points allowed by position, per team, to create a top ten list. Then I reviewed plus matchups, per team, to create a top ten list. I combined the list and this is I learned:
QBs from these teams fit both criterea: New Orleans, NY Giants, New England, Miami, and Dallas.
RBs from these teams fit both criterea: Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, New England, and Dallas.
WRs from these teams fit both criterea: Miami, Jacksonville, NY Giants, New Orleans, and Washington.
TEs from these teams fit both criterea: New England, Dallas, Miami, NY Giants, and Tennessee.
The bolded teams are projected in the top ten for most points this week. I am not sure how helpful this information will be, but I needed to try something different.
QBs from these teams fit both criterea: New Orleans, NY Giants, New England, Miami, and Dallas.
RBs from these teams fit both criterea: Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, New England, and Dallas.
WRs from these teams fit both criterea: Miami, Jacksonville, NY Giants, New Orleans, and Washington.
TEs from these teams fit both criterea: New England, Dallas, Miami, NY Giants, and Tennessee.
The bolded teams are projected in the top ten for most points this week. I am not sure how helpful this information will be, but I needed to try something different.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I think I am just doing gpp this week. Not good overall at this, but it seems like I am especially bad at the 2x games.
Anyway, awesemo's initial stuff seemed to be in line a bit with what I just quick wrote down on impulse after looking at initial ownership stuff:
Qb: Hurts and Murray were at the top of the list
RB: Fournette and D.Harris might be my 2 most owned RB gpp plays. I also like using the RBs in the NYG/Dallas game as I think that will be the most stacked game for QBs/WRs.
WR: As usual, mostly for stacking here but for leverage/lower % I like the idea of pairing a Mia pass catcher with Fournette since nobody even tries to run on TB. I also like J.Meyers. Ton of volume, and has yet to score an NFL TD I believe. AJ green way too low owned again.
TE: again, NE and Mia guys are low owned. I like sprinkling in Henry in LUs and using Gesicki with Fournette.
Anyway, awesemo's initial stuff seemed to be in line a bit with what I just quick wrote down on impulse after looking at initial ownership stuff:
Qb: Hurts and Murray were at the top of the list
RB: Fournette and D.Harris might be my 2 most owned RB gpp plays. I also like using the RBs in the NYG/Dallas game as I think that will be the most stacked game for QBs/WRs.
WR: As usual, mostly for stacking here but for leverage/lower % I like the idea of pairing a Mia pass catcher with Fournette since nobody even tries to run on TB. I also like J.Meyers. Ton of volume, and has yet to score an NFL TD I believe. AJ green way too low owned again.
TE: again, NE and Mia guys are low owned. I like sprinkling in Henry in LUs and using Gesicki with Fournette.
FatNate
Footballguy
Week Five Contest -- 10 person -- Main Slate -- $5 -- Pay Top Two
https://www.fanduel.com/entry/64897-249570669?invitedBy=fatnate&cnl=ba
https://www.fanduel.com/entry/64897-249570669?invitedBy=fatnate&cnl=ba
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Fwiw, here was their top leverage teams/stacks for the main slate (listed in order of leverage %) for gpp consideration:
DK = TB, GB, LaC, AZ, Car (NYG, Jax, Det were the bottom)
FD = TB, GB, Pitt, LaC, Car (NYG, Jax, Philly were the bottom)
DK = TB, GB, LaC, AZ, Car (NYG, Jax, Det were the bottom)
FD = TB, GB, Pitt, LaC, Car (NYG, Jax, Philly were the bottom)
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Here were their top individual leverage plays:
DK = Fournette, Ricky Seals-Jones, K.Murray, J.Robinson, Mixon, Cooks, T.Patrick (bottom = Adams, Lance, Henry, Barkley, Ekeler, Kamara)
FD = K.Murray, Waller, D.Johnson, AJ Brown, Dam Williams, Fournette, J.Meyers (bottom = Henry, Cook, Ekeler, Lance, Brady, Hubbard)
DK = Fournette, Ricky Seals-Jones, K.Murray, J.Robinson, Mixon, Cooks, T.Patrick (bottom = Adams, Lance, Henry, Barkley, Ekeler, Kamara)
FD = K.Murray, Waller, D.Johnson, AJ Brown, Dam Williams, Fournette, J.Meyers (bottom = Henry, Cook, Ekeler, Lance, Brady, Hubbard)
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I think I said it in the past, but specifically with those lists, what that leverage means is they look at their projected % of that player being in the optimal LU vs. their ownership. It also closely looks follows their boom % odds (chance of being qb1, top 2RBs, top 3 WRs, etc..) .
IE - on FD on they have Henry at about 25% owned, but only 17% odds of being in the optimal. K.Murray is the opposite 12% owned, but about 20% odds of being in the optimal.
For the team leverage, it's simply odds of being the top stack of the slate vs. the QB ownership. So TB was the top odds at 13% vs. 7% ownership for Brady. Dallas was 2nd at 11%, but they had Dak's ownership at 11% as well, so there is no advantage in your LU with that stack. Not saying to not play Dak stacks, but then you probably need a lower % play elsewhere.
IE - on FD on they have Henry at about 25% owned, but only 17% odds of being in the optimal. K.Murray is the opposite 12% owned, but about 20% odds of being in the optimal.
For the team leverage, it's simply odds of being the top stack of the slate vs. the QB ownership. So TB was the top odds at 13% vs. 7% ownership for Brady. Dallas was 2nd at 11%, but they had Dak's ownership at 11% as well, so there is no advantage in your LU with that stack. Not saying to not play Dak stacks, but then you probably need a lower % play elsewhere.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Have enough on FD for 6-7 $1 shots. Started there this am, and came up with this that I ended up really liking:
Murray - Kamara/A.Jones/D.Williams - D.Samuel/Green/Ruggs - Gesicki - Car
I started off looking at the top leverage players, and in the top 4 I saw that D.Williams/Ruggs correlation, and thought that was interesting that they showed up Ruggs is also really low owned, so that got that out of the way.
Then Murray keeps popping for top plays in a game that I like, so I plopped in that stack of him/Green and ran it back with Samuel.
No D.Adams in this LU, so that pointed me to put in A.Jones for my 2nd Rb as leverage off the 20% of LUs with Adams in them.
Car and Kamara had the highest boom % score at their postitions, so in they went.
That left 5.6K at TE which allowed a group of TEs that I like and can't decide between in: Gesicki, Henry, Cook, Brate. Honestly, I just might do 3-4 LUs of all of the above players, then do 1 with Gesicki, 1 Henry, 1 Cook, etc..
Murray - Kamara/A.Jones/D.Williams - D.Samuel/Green/Ruggs - Gesicki - Car
I started off looking at the top leverage players, and in the top 4 I saw that D.Williams/Ruggs correlation, and thought that was interesting that they showed up Ruggs is also really low owned, so that got that out of the way.
Then Murray keeps popping for top plays in a game that I like, so I plopped in that stack of him/Green and ran it back with Samuel.
No D.Adams in this LU, so that pointed me to put in A.Jones for my 2nd Rb as leverage off the 20% of LUs with Adams in them.
Car and Kamara had the highest boom % score at their postitions, so in they went.
That left 5.6K at TE which allowed a group of TEs that I like and can't decide between in: Gesicki, Henry, Cook, Brate. Honestly, I just might do 3-4 LUs of all of the above players, then do 1 with Gesicki, 1 Henry, 1 Cook, etc..
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
On DK right now I am just doing a 20max $1 gpp. Did similar process above, and for my placeholder I ended up with:
Murray - Fournette/J.rob - Adams/Samuel/Green/J.Meyers - R.Seals-Jones - Philly
Fournette and J.Rob were the top 2 leverage plays, and again Murray was sticking out, as was Samuel (top boom score).
RSJ was top leverage, Philly top boom %, both cheap so I stuck them in. Adams was the 2nd boom % play at WR so I stuck him in and that left 5.7K for last WR, and I had talked about Meyers before, so wtf. I will play around with this for a few variations and then look at their other top stacks/leverage teams like TB, Dallas, GB.
Murray - Fournette/J.rob - Adams/Samuel/Green/J.Meyers - R.Seals-Jones - Philly
Fournette and J.Rob were the top 2 leverage plays, and again Murray was sticking out, as was Samuel (top boom score).
RSJ was top leverage, Philly top boom %, both cheap so I stuck them in. Adams was the 2nd boom % play at WR so I stuck him in and that left 5.7K for last WR, and I had talked about Meyers before, so wtf. I will play around with this for a few variations and then look at their other top stacks/leverage teams like TB, Dallas, GB.
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I appreciate you doing all this work and sharing, particularly for FD as that's all I play. Is it working?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
NO!
I will keep at it though. Seems like my seasons are mostly crap with 2-3 great weeks.
ETA: mostly it's just me liking to look at stats, talking out loud, trying to figure this out, and hoping that one of these weeks one of us in here every week will knock it out of the park and hit big.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
FWIW, I just double checked and the top stack/leverage was updated. I am guessing more are looking to the SF/Az game, so those two were at the bottom of the leverage grades and now the top teams for gpp leverage were Car, TB, GB, LV, and Minn. I already did them earlier and like them, so I am keeping those 3 Murray LUs b/c I think the odd low% play of Ruggs will offset that popular stack, but for the other 4 I did 2 Car, 1 GB, and now deciding on the last one.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Here's my advice to those of you doing GPP this week.
Step 1. Make your best lineup, the one you think gives you the greatest chance of success. You feel this lineup will most certainly smash.
Step 2. Make your second and third best lineups. These are very different from #1. But you feel pretty confident about these as well.
Step 3. The most important step. Delete all three lineups above. Pick all new players, none from above. Make this your GPP team.
Step 4. Profit
Step 1. Make your best lineup, the one you think gives you the greatest chance of success. You feel this lineup will most certainly smash.
Step 2. Make your second and third best lineups. These are very different from #1. But you feel pretty confident about these as well.
Step 3. The most important step. Delete all three lineups above. Pick all new players, none from above. Make this your GPP team.
Step 4. Profit
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AquaBliss
Footballguy
I like this! I’m going to try this but play all 4 lineups in a GPP. Will let you know how it goes.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I hope you smash it at some point.NO!
I will keep at it though. Seems like my seasons are mostly crap with 2-3 great weeks.
ETA: mostly it's just me liking to look at stats, talking out loud, trying to figure this out, and hoping that one of these weeks one of us in here every week will knock it out of the park and hit big.
It's interesting that you're approaching it from the ownership/leverage perspective whereas I have tried in the past to approach it from the value/regression perspective.
I saw a guy on rotogrinders forum posting that he was having more success with parlays than with GPPs. I wanted to tell him of course you are because the optimal lineup in a GPP is the equivalent of a 1000 line parlay.
Not sure if you are serious about the site but I have been wondering the same thing myself. I am off to my worst start ever in daily. I am a low volume player with about 3-4 lineups a week. I have cashed in only one of them. The optimizer has been worthless.I'm down on FD for the year... lost money last year too... not sure what my problem is with this site, lol
I'm actually up at DK so far this year but I got lucky by entering the milly maker with crowns and winning $50. Also turned an $8 free ticket into $30. Basically break even on the rest of the entries.
I also just missed (possibly) winning $1000 on Monday night. Entered $1 Showdown contest and came in like ~250th place or whatever but only 5 points out of first. I also had a unique lineup so if Brate had scored TB's TD instead of Jones I would have had more points than the winner. I say possibly because I didn't look at 250 entries above me to see if any of them had Brate
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I also really like Burrow/Chase/Higgins stacks this week with D.Adams. Which means I should probably delete them and start over. But love this stack so much this week.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
#### I hate cash games!!!
I had a gpp that was sitting at almost 150 after the first games on DK with 4 spots left to play.
Those 4 spots haven't cleared 10combined points yet 
I had a gpp that was sitting at almost 150 after the first games on DK with 4 spots left to play.
Those 4 spots haven't cleared 10combined points yet 
Solomon Grundy
Footballguy
Another crappy week...$205 in, $80 out. UGH.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
$93 in $82 out. Getting better lol. At this rate, I'll turn a 5% profit next week, omg!
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Across all 3 sites I was about 20 down. Getting cleaned out, and haven't had a + week this season yet. Brutal year.
I REALLY need to stop with the cash games. Those piss me off 10x more than gpps for whatever reason. I guess that wtf attitude for gpps helps. Mostly I just feel like I miss the memo on what the "correct" LU build for cash is for the week. In most of the 200 entry 2x contests I was in Henry and Adams were both 85%+ owned. I didn't have Adams, which really hurt, and of course D.Jones was my Qb which really hurt.
I REALLY need to stop with the cash games. Those piss me off 10x more than gpps for whatever reason. I guess that wtf attitude for gpps helps. Mostly I just feel like I miss the memo on what the "correct" LU build for cash is for the week. In most of the 200 entry 2x contests I was in Henry and Adams were both 85%+ owned. I didn't have Adams, which really hurt, and of course D.Jones was my Qb which really hurt.
Steeler
Footballguy
I agree 100% I stopped playing cash games several years ago and don't miss it at all. Cash just seems boring to me and is a totally different animal that GPP (obviously). I like searching for the unique/contrarian plays that could help you take down a GPP. It's not very exciting to me to ensure you have a player who is 85% owned in order to turn $1 into $2.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
From what I've read, the "pundits" say your participation in cash should focus on head to head versus double-ups which are more "gpp like".
I don't particularly care for either of them, just wasn't sure if when you say cash you're referring to one or both of them.
FatNate
Footballguy
My best week of the year. 100 in and 150 out. I feel like I just missed it this week. Swapping Mattison for Harris was a big key. I was very heavy on Henry and Adams. I was heavy on Burrow, who was just okay, but stacked with Boyd or Higgins was bad. The Burrow/Chase stack was solid though. I missed on all value (cheaper) WR/TE, which is why I feel like I was close to having a big week.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I was thinking about it more, and I know I say this every year, but I think what would benefit me is if I really looked harder into the contests I am doing.
I hear the same thing about H2H - theoretically a little more likely you make a little bit back. What I have been doing is if I have $20 in a cash LU - I will do about $18 of that in 2x, then put that LU in a 5x and 4 random 25cent entries just in case it goes off (micro boosters, gpps). It just gets a bit tedious trying to find 20-30 different people for cash games who don't have 50+ contests waiting out there for guppies like me. When I do 2x, I do always use the SE ones.
I have changed my gpp entries a little, and make sure I am in stuff I can max out - SE, 3max, 20max. So if I did just gpps, I wonder if the "pros" would suggest sticking to 4-5 Lus, but then entering them in a 3max, but also that same LU in a 20 entry, 100 entry, etc.. Basically - if I am doing $20 for week 6 which would be better: 20 Lus in the $1 20max gpp, or 4 LUs, but putting each one in a $1 3max, $1 5player, $1 5x, $1 20 player, and $1 100player ?
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I dont follow a formal process, but would guess about 2/3 of my spend is in $5 milly entries and 1/3 is in various single entry $1/2/3/5/10 entries. Having won a 100 team mini-gpp can say that was horribly unsatisfying...I have basically no interest in H2H or 2X/5X/etc. What I'm trying to do is buoy up my bankroll with small cash wins from the SE's to support my gpp fetish, plus a little showdown action (tonight for example I have 2 $2 and 1 $1 entry -> of this $3 is SE and $2 is ME).KarmaPolice said:
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I get that, and maybe I wasn't clear but I was saying that I was thinking about putting the same lineup in all of those -100player, 5x, and 3max gpp. SO, if it scores big, it would take down a gpp but if not, there is at least a shot at getting 3x/5x. Dunno. What always gets me thinking is just how hard it is to get to those multiplier numbers in gpps.
Looking at the $1 3max for main slate - you need to get to 515th out of 23,700 LUs to get 5x and $5. You need a 98th percentile lineup. 5x contest you need a 83rd percentile Lineup.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I had a few gpp lineups this week that cashed but nothing spectacular. I had a lot of Burrow/Chase/Adams and Brady/Brown stacks. But I had too much John Ross III at $3400. He was my scrub Giants WR pick and as it turned out, Kadariaus Toney at $4000 was the Giants WR we all should have selected instead. He was on the winning lineup, along with Brady/Brown.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I also stopped playing cash games years ago. GPP is much more interesting and also much more challenging.
