Week Six DFS (1 Viewer)

[FatNate]

Hou  16.5  @  Ind  27
GB  24.75  @  Chi  20.25
KC  31  @  Was  24.5
Min  22.25  @  Car  23.75
LAC  23.5  @  Bal  27
Cin  25  @  Det  22.5
LAR  29  @  NYG  18.5
Ari  24  @  Cle  26.5
LVR  20.25  @  Den  23.75
Dal  26.75  @  NE  22.75
 

 

[FatNate]

I assume everyone will be game stacking KC/Was, LAC/Bal, and Ari/Cle.  I also assume pieces from LAR and Dal will be popular.  I expct the pieces from Ind to be lower owner, compared to the other higher total teams.  I like the Min/Car game.  I think it has shootout potential.  I am expecting CMC to be back.  Surely, Anderson gets one...right...maybe?  Dalvin should be healthier or Mattison, plus they have some nice WRs to target.  Darnold and Cousins have been fairly priced most of the year.  I will go back to the well with Cincinnati this week, against a bad defense.  I expect them to continue to run ball, with Mixon being limited again.  Burrow and the right WR should still have a solid week.  I have no interest in Hou, Chi, Det, NYG, LVR, Den, or NE this week -- not even in run backs.

It is early.  These are first impressions.  Plus, I have not looked at any pricing, which is the key to finding value.  I am looking forward to week six!

 

[FatNate]

Early week placeholder:

Burrow-Henderson/Taylor/Williams(KC)-Jefferson/Chase/Anderson-Andrews-Rams

 

[FatNate]

I have been seeing talk about types of contests that everyone plays.  I usually enter the Milly Maker with about 70% of my weekly allowance.  I use about 15% of my weekly allowance on the large feild single entry contests.  The last 15% are for a few private league contests and head to heads.  I never build a 'cash' lineup.  I also try to balance uniqueness, because in the past I feel I have tried to be too contrarian or too unique -- or as I like to put it, I have to often tried to get cute and be the smartest one in the room.  I try to key on QBs, from games I like, then correlate accordingly.  I often play a low owned Defense and/or one player at less than 5% ownership.  Nothing revolutionary here, but I saw others pulling the curtain back, so i figured I would share some of my methodology.

 

[KarmaPolice]

First smaller slate, so I will be curious what the leverage plays will be as far as team stacks on awesemo.  They were pretty accurate last week as I think it was TB, GB, Lac were in the top 4-5 and you would have done well focusing on those games.   

Less games to look at, but that also means more focused and higher ownership on a couple games I'd assume.  

Gonna throttle it back - I have about $25 in gpps saved on DK, and going to build 4 teams.  Right now I have each entered in a $3 3max or SE, a $1 3max or SE, a 25cent 2000player gpp then a 5x and 3x.  So $6.25 for each LU? 

 

[KarmaPolice]

Hit for $23 on FD last night so I have about $25 to play with there.   Might do 10 in the $2 20max contest.   Overall, I don't like FD's gpp styles and it seems like that one at least has a decent payout structure.   

Up on Yahoo and have about $10 in credit to use there, so I will also have a bit going on that site.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

It's early, so I will update on Sat if people like this.   

Their top team stack % odds were (in order):  KC, LaR, Balt, Cinc, Car    FWIW they have KC as 2-3x more likely than LaR to be top stack.  

Leverage stack for DK = KC, GB, Cinci, Az, LaR

Leverage for FD = KC, GB, Cin, Car, Az

 

[daddo39]

I'm seriously thinking of doing an Indy stack in a couple tournies this week, they're playing Houston, Taylor seems to be in stride, and I really like Pittman at 5800 on FD.

 

[Steeler]

It's early, so I will update on Sat if people like this.   

Their top team stack % odds were (in order):  KC, LaR, Balt, Cinc, Car    FWIW they have KC as 2-3x more likely than LaR to be top stack.  

Leverage stack for DK = KC, GB, Cinci, Az, LaR

I just put this placeholder lineup together for DK before seeing this post and it has a lot of the teams listed here.  Since this is my first lineup of the week, I should nuke it and forget all these players  

M. Stafford -- LAR stack
J. Mixon 
D. Williams KC -- leverage against Mahomes/Hill/Kelce (although I haven't seen any percentages yet)
C. Kupp -- LAR stack
K. Toney  -- run it back in LAR stack
T. McLaurin
M. Allie-Cox -- HOU gives up points to TE
C. Kirk -- deep threat WR has smashed CLE all year
Cowboys -- best D that fit with remaining $$$

 

[KarmaPolice]

I just put this placeholder lineup together for DK before seeing this post and it has a lot of the teams listed here.  Since this is my first lineup of the week, I should nuke it and forget all these players  

M. Stafford -- LAR stack
J. Mixon 
D. Williams KC -- leverage against Mahomes/Hill/Kelce (although I haven't seen any percentages yet)
C. Kupp -- LAR stack
K. Toney  -- run it back in LAR stack
T. McLaurin
M. Allie-Cox -- HOU gives up points to TE
C. Kirk -- deep threat WR has smashed CLE all year
Cowboys -- best D that fit with remaining $$$

I like thinking and LU.    I was going to take a few shots at the Milly Maker on FD, and before posting that and looking at stuff, here was my placeholder:

Heinicke - Taylor/Mixon/Henderson - McLaurin/Humphries/St.Brown - Kelce - Indy

Thoughts were using the cheaper side of the KC/Wash game, then correlation with Mixon/St.Brown and Taylor/Indy D.   I haven't done much digging into stats and injuries, so I doubt this one will stick.  

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I have been seeing talk about types of contests that everyone plays.  I usually enter the Milly Maker with about 70% of my weekly allowance.  I use about 15% of my weekly allowance on the large feild single entry contests.  The last 15% are for a few private league contests and head to heads.  I never build a 'cash' lineup.  I also try to balance uniqueness, because in the past I feel I have tried to be too contrarian or too unique -- or as I like to put it, I have to often tried to get cute and be the smartest one in the room.  I try to key on QBs, from games I like, then correlate accordingly.  I often play a low owned Defense and/or one player at less than 5% ownership.  Nothing revolutionary here, but I saw others pulling the curtain back, so i figured I would share some of my methodology.

Up until recently I did the same thing.  I don't think its flawed on the surface, but what I realized I was doing was....after deciding how to stack and run back, I was being very haphazard in filling in the remainder of the skill position slots.  Establishing my RB/WR/TE priorities (and sticking to them!) followed by targetting games / game stacks seems to be giving (MILDLY) better results and I feel better about the process.  It also motivates me to do a little bit more research, not doing which is my major flaw as a casual player.

 

[FatNate]

I started with the teams that are matched up against teams that have given up the most fantasy points by position.  I compared that list to those teams in a plus matchup.  Lastly, I considered the total points the teams were projected (and those highest projected point teams are bolded).  The information is not revolutionary and it mostly confirms teams that we were already targeting players from.  It does have me intrigued to consider the Texans as an option for a few plays this week.  At the beginning of the week, I had eliminated them totally because of the low point projection, but after seeing the matchup I think I will do one lineup Mills/Cooks w/Taylor.  More realistically, it means I would consider Cooks/Taylor as a secondary correlation in a lineup.

QBs from these teams fit both criteria and should be considered 'good' plays this week:  KC, LAR, WAS, & NE.

RBs from these teams fit both criteria and should be considered 'good' plays this week:  BAL, LAR, CIN, DEN, & WAS. 

WRs from these teams fit both criteria and should be considered 'good' plays this week:  KC, HOU, & WAS.

TEs from these teams fit both criteria and should be considered 'good' plays this week:  IND, WAS, & HOU.

 

[FatNate]

The Bengal running back position will be one that needs to be followed all week.  Perine on the Covid list and I am not sure he will clear protocols in time for Sunday (and more importantly, be healthy to play).  Looks like Joe Mixon is going to be popular this week.  Based on watching the game last week, I do not expect him to be 100%.  I expect them to limit his touches.  Treat him as decoy.  Pull him out on passing downs.  We all like the matchup and the volume he gets, but I want to caution everyone to follow the injury/practice reports closely this week.  I fully expect him to play, but I also expect a reduced workload and risk of re-injury.  I do like Chris Evans, at $4600, I think he gets more opportunities this week and is dirt cheap.

 

[FatNate]

It's early, so I will update on Sat if people like this.   

Their top team stack % odds were (in order):  KC, LaR, Balt, Cinc, Car    FWIW they have KC as 2-3x more likely than LaR to be top stack.  

Leverage stack for DK = KC, GB, Cinci, Az, LaR

Leverage for FD = KC, GB, Cin, Car, Az

I think a lot people will go after the WAS side of the KC game.  It is so much cheaper and allows for more options with the rest of the build.  Heinicke ($7300), Gibson ($6700), McLaurin ($7400), and Seal-Jones ($5000) are priced low compared to the KC side and  they get most of the action.  I will have plenty of KC this week, but I will have more WAS.

 

[KarmaPolice]

The Bengal running back position will be one that needs to be followed all week.  Perine on the Covid list and I am not sure he will clear protocols in time for Sunday (and more importantly, be healthy to play).  Looks like Joe Mixon is going to be popular this week.  Based on watching the game last week, I do not expect him to be 100%.  I expect them to limit his touches.  Treat him as decoy.  Pull him out on passing downs.  We all like the matchup and the volume he gets, but I want to caution everyone to follow the injury/practice reports closely this week.  I fully expect him to play, but I also expect a reduced workload and risk of re-injury.  I do like Chris Evans, at $4600, I think he gets more opportunities this week and is dirt cheap.

I think there is a bit of this on the week as I dig deeper.  You brought up Evans (he's only 4K on Dk).   Are we sure that D.Williams is going to get the work or is McKinnon going to share with him?   Seems like Michel got more run than I liked last week.  Herbert was about 50/50 with D.Williams for Chicago.   Pollard/Zeke.  Dillon's touches increasing in GB.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but the 6 spots I circled for having the best OL/DL matchups and were on favored teams were:  Cinc, Clev, Dallas, LaR, GB, Indy.    So 4 of those spots are the situations that I talked about above, and one is Cleveland that is already a bit of a crap shoot.   

 

[FatNate]

Up until recently I did the same thing.  I don't think its flawed on the surface, but what I realized I was doing was....after deciding how to stack and run back, I was being very haphazard in filling in the remainder of the skill position slots.  Establishing my RB/WR/TE priorities (and sticking to them!) followed by targetting games / game stacks seems to be giving (MILDLY) better results and I feel better about the process.  It also motivates me to do a little bit more research, not doing which is my major flaw as a casual player.

I agree.  I think it is important to trust your research.  Your gut.  Your plan.  Stick with the guys you want and build around them.  Some weeks the results will be shi--, but you learn from those weeks and move on.  I usually try to build a few lineups that hedge against my plan, but that is only about 2-4 lineups of the 20 lineups I build.

 

[KarmaPolice]

I think a lot people will go after WAS side of the KC game.  It is so much cheaper and allows for more options with the rest of the build.  Heinicke ($7300), Gibson ($6700), McLaurin ($7400), and Seal-Jones ($5000) are priced low compared to the KC side and we they get most of the action.  I will have plenty of KC this week, but I will have more WAS.

Yep, for both sites Wash was their worst or 2nd worst leverage score for the reason you talked about.   They have them at being around 3-4% odds of being the top stack, but Heinicke is at 8-9% owned.  

Not telling people to not go this route, but that means you probably shouldn't do this and then throw in chalk Rbs.  

 

[FatNate]

I think there is a bit of this on the week as I dig deeper.  You brought up Evans (he's only 4K on Dk).   Are we sure that D.Williams is going to get the work or is McKinnon going to share with him?   Seems like Michel got more run than I liked last week.  Herbert was about 50/50 with D.Williams for Chicago.   Pollard/Zeke.  Dillon's touches increasing in GB.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but the 6 spots I circled for having the best OL/DL matchups and were on favored teams were:  Cinc, Clev, Dallas, LaR, GB, Indy.    So 4 of those spots are the situations that I talked about above, and one is Cleveland that is already a bit of a crap shoot.   

FFG published this note on Henderson this week.  Helps explain a little more of the Henderson/Michel time share.

Los Angeles Rams: An injury sidelined Darrell Henderson for a single drive which explains an interesting blip in the box score. On the one drive Henderson missed, Sony Michel toted the football nine times. This led to a respectable 38% rushing market share day for Michel causing many fantasy managers to worry about Darrell Henderson's role in the offense. This rational explanation of the missed drive, however, solidifies the idea that Darrell Henderson is a locked-in RB1.

 

[KarmaPolice]

FFG published this note on Henderson this week.  Helps explain a little more of the Henderson/Michel time share.

Los Angeles Rams: An injury sidelined Darrell Henderson for a single drive which explains an interesting blip in the box score. On the one drive Henderson missed, Sony Michel toted the football nine times. This led to a respectable 38% rushing market share day for Michel causing many fantasy managers to worry about Darrell Henderson's role in the offense. This rational explanation of the missed drive, however, solidifies the idea that Darrell Henderson is a locked-in RB1.

Thanks, I was just sitting down to look at some of this stuff! 

 

[KarmaPolice]

I was sitting down and looking at initial ownership, and it feels like there are not a ton of low ownership plays I love (started with FD).  That's usually where I look first to see if there is a player on my lists that is 5% or less.  Looks like it's mostly TEs and the RB junk I listed above.  Here were the players I wrote down:

Rodgers, Wentz

Hunt, McKissic, Pollard, Dillon

Watkins, A.Rob, OBJ, R.Moore/Green

Hock, Schultz, Henry, Njoku, Higbee

Det, Cinc, Chic

Not a ton there, so I might lean even more into the the correlation and leverage stuff this week to try to separate in that Milly Maker.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

DK stuff painted a different picture.  Again, I will look again on Saturday, but there were more low % I liked.  On top of most of the same names from FD on DK these names popped out:

Dak, K.Murray, M.Williams, Hopkins

Then I looked at the position leverage scores, and names in the top 3 at their positions were:

Lamar, D.Swift, Chubb, J.Chase, Andrews.   

I thought that was really interesting and wondered if I should consider using the correlation of Swift/Chase in 2-3 of my 4 LUs and maybe near locking in Andrews.  At their prices it would probably be easy to build stacks around that core.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

Player leverage for FD were:

Lamar, Wentz, A.Jones, Zeke, Hines, Chase, Landry, Agholor, Fant, Higbee, Waller

 

[FatNate]

I was sitting down and looking at initial ownership, and it feels like there are not a ton of low ownership plays I love (started with FD).  That's usually where I look first to see if there is a player on my lists that is 5% or less.  Looks like it's mostly TEs and the RB junk I listed above.  Here were the players I wrote down:

Rodgers, Wentz

Hunt, McKissic, Pollard, Dillon

Watkins, A.Rob, OBJ, R.Moore/Green

Hock, Schultz, Henry, Njoku, Higbee

Det, Cinc, Chic

Not a ton there, so I might lean even more into the the correlation and leverage stuff this week to try to separate in that Milly Maker.  

Quick lookup on my end, for FanDuel.  I would consider some of the following at 'lower' ownership:

QB -  Burrow 6.6%, Herbert 5.1%, & Rodgers 2.3%

RB - Jones (GB) 5.9%, Hunt 2.4%, & McKissic 1% (my brother's GPP pick of the week - if that matters to anyone)

WR - Hopkins 5.3%, Anderson 5%, Boyd 4.8%, Williams (LAC) 4.2%, Moore (ARI) 1.7%, & Mooney 1.7%

TE - Cook 4.2% & Henry 1.5%

Some are more GPP only options, but I would consider several of them in 'cash' game builds.

Such as:  all three QBS.  Jones and Hunt at RBs.  Hopkins, Boyd, & Williams at WR.  Henry at TE.

 

[KarmaPolice]

Quick lookup on my end, for FanDuel.  I would consider some of the following at 'lower' ownership:

QB -  Burrow 6.6%, Herbert 5.1%, & Rodgers 2.3%

RB - Jones (GB) 5.9%, Hunt 2.4%, & McKissic 1% (my brother's GPP pick of the week - if that matters to anyone)

WR - Hopkins 5.3%, Anderson 5%, Boyd 4.8%, Williams (LAC) 4.2%, Moore (ARI) 1.7%, & Mooney 1.7%

TE - Cook 4.2% & Henry 1.5%

Some are more GPP only options, but I would consider several of them in 'cash' game builds.

Such as:  all three QBS.  Jones and Hunt at RBs.  Hopkins, Boyd, & Williams at WR.  Henry at TE.

The sites always disagree a bit on ownership.   the one i was looking at have Hopkins and Williams higher, but not by much (6.5 and 8).   Those are exactly the types of stud pivots I look for in gpps, especially if it ties to a lower owned QB I like.   

It's usually thinner to dig too deep at RB and find the 5% guys there.  

 

[Steeler]

Not helpful for this week, but I found this blurb on about K. Hunt:  He is averaging about 14 touches per game and has scored in four of the first five games.

Anyone want to guess which week I had him in some GPP lineups?   

 

[KarmaPolice]

Not helpful for this week, but I found this blurb on about K. Hunt:  He is averaging about 14 touches per game and has scored in four of the first five games.

Anyone want to guess which week I had him in some GPP lineups?   

 

I seem to have the opposite problem - play a guy for 4-5 weeks, get frustrated at the duds and then don't play him when he pops off.   Then try hopping back on as he proceeds to post another string of duds..  

In other words - look for that J. Meyers gpp winning game this week!  

 

[TwinTurbo]

Anyone playing TNF showdown lineups tonight? 

 

[KarmaPolice]

Anyone playing TNF showdown lineups tonight? 

Yeah.   For the most part they haven't gone well this season for me.   I basically always just do it with games that have a great QB or two, and build more for a shootout.   Boring putting in 2 DTs, 2PKs, and 2Rbs.   

Tonight on DK tried mostly D.Smith and Ertz in cpt, and on FD just used the Qbs in cpt.  

 

[FatNate]

I am in for tonight.  I try to fade the most likely/popular game theory in the single gamer.  Two FanDuel lineups for me tonight.  No Brady.  Fournette as one MVP.  Smith as one MVP.  Three Phily and two TB for both.  Planning for ‘lower’ scoring, relatively close game — most importantly Fournette gets TDs.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

I am in for tonight.  I try to fade the most likely/popular game theory in the single gamer.  Two FanDuel lineups for me tonight.  No Brady.  Fournette as one MVP.  Smith as one MVP.  Three Phily and two TB for both.  Planning for ‘lower’ scoring, relatively close game — most importantly Fournette gets TDs.  

Probably a good way to attack a single game.  

on dk I usually go for the lowest $ pass catcher I like, and use that for cpt and that let's me fit both qbs and better players overall.  usually that cpt ends up lower owned too. 

hasn't worked well this season for sure, and going tge route of fading a qb has been more profitable. 

 

[FatNate]

Probably a good way to attack a single game.  

on dk I usually go for the lowest $ pass catcher I like, and use that for cpt and that let's me fit both qbs and better players overall.  usually that cpt ends up lower owned too. 

hasn't worked well this season for sure, and going tge route of fading a qb has been more profitable. 

I usually don’t have much luck, but I am also striving to not split the pot with many, if I ever do hit. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

I usually don’t have much luck, but I am also striving to not split the pot with many, if I ever do hit. 

Understand completely, and I think that is way more common on FD.   That happened last week with me.  Split 6th place with what looked like about 150 people.  

Just the structure of only 5 positions and not having 1.5x salary with the cpt lends to a lot more duplicate LUs.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

yup 0-9 on TNF entries.  Sounds about right for the year.      

 

[FatNate]

I am in for tonight.  I try to fade the most likely/popular game theory in the single gamer.  Two FanDuel lineups for me tonight.  No Brady.  Fournette as one MVP.  Smith as one MVP.  Three Phily and two TB for both.  Planning for ‘lower’ scoring, relatively close game — most importantly Fournette gets TDs.  

One min cash.  One no cash.  18 in and 15 out.  My Smith MVP lineup had Brown.  My Fournette MVP lineup had Evans.  IF, a very big IF, I could have had Brown with my Fournette MVP lineup, I think I could have actually turned a small profit.  But, instead I get my usual results, from the single gamer!

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

About $10 in FD showdown last night in a half dozen lineups.  Missed out on $625 win by having Reagor instead of Ertz in an otherwise perfect lineup.  :whoopsie:

 

[FatNate]

The RB situation in Chicago and KC provide a lot of value.  Using them both unlocks those high priced guys in the KC/WAS game.

 

[FatNate]

The Bengal running back position will be one that needs to be followed all week.  Perine on the Covid list and I am not sure he will clear protocols in time for Sunday (and more importantly, be healthy to play).  Looks like Joe Mixon is going to be popular this week.  Based on watching the game last week, I do not expect him to be 100%.  I expect them to limit his touches.  Treat him as decoy.  Pull him out on passing downs.  We all like the matchup and the volume he gets, but I want to caution everyone to follow the injury/practice reports closely this week.  I fully expect him to play, but I also expect a reduced workload and risk of re-injury.  I do like Chris Evans, at $4600, I think he gets more opportunities this week and is dirt cheap.

I am not sure what is being reported nationally.  Local reports are:  Mixon was 'limited' at practice on Wednesday and he did NOT practice on Thursday.  Coach was asked about it and gave a generic response that did not reveal anything, by saying "Mixon had good energy on Wednesday and moved pretty good."  Thursday 'off' was proably just to rest the ankle, but the team did not provide much detail or explanation.  We may learn more after today's practice, but I at this point, I think he will play and be limited Sunday.

 

[FatNate]

Week 6 Contest -- $5 -- Main Slate -- 10 Person League -- Top 2 Get Paid

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/65217-249889416?invitedBy=fatnate&cnl=ba

 

[FatNate]

I am not sure what is being reported nationally.  Local reports are:  Mixon was 'limited' at practice on Wednesday and he did NOT practice on Thursday.  Coach was asked about it and gave a generic response that did not reveal anything, by saying "Mixon had good energy on Wednesday and moved pretty good."  Thursday 'off' was proably just to rest the ankle, but the team did not provide much detail or explanation.  We may learn more after today's practice, but I at this point, I think he will play and be limited Sunday.

Zac Taylor says Mixon will get his normal workload week six against the Lions.  It has also been verifed that he participated in practice today, but I do not know to what level.

 

[TwinTurbo]

For DK gpp, I might go back to the Burrow/Chase/Higgins stack this week and bring it back with Swift or Amon-Ra. 

I also like the Cards D in gpp this week. Should be low owned and Chubb is out. 

 

[GreenNGold]

Zac Taylor says Mixon will get his normal workload week six against the Lions.  It has also been verifed that he participated in practice today, but I do not know to what level.

I wish we knew what Cincinnati considers to be a normal workload for Mixon.  Is it the workload we think he should be getting in a juicy matchup against Detroit, or a lesser workload similar to what the team has been giving him so far?   

I think there is too much other value at RB this week for me to take another chance with Mixon, which probably means he will get a full workload and blow up.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

I wish we knew what Cincinnati considers to be a normal workload for Mixon.  Is it the workload we think he should be getting in a juicy matchup against Detroit, or a lesser workload similar to what the team has been giving him so far?   

I think there is too much other value at RB this week for me to take another chance with Mixon, which probably means he will get a full workload and blow up.  

He's one of the higher touches/game RB this season despite the injuries the last couple weeks.   IMO normal workload = 20+ touches.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

The RB situation in Chicago and KC provide a lot of value.  Using them both unlocks those high priced guys in the KC/WAS game.

Value, sure.  We think they are able to have decent gpp scores though?

 

[TwinTurbo]

For what it's worth, I plan on fading Mixon this week and going with the Cincy passing game. So you should do the opposite. 

At RB, I really like J.Taylor and D.Booker this week

 

[FatNate]

Value, sure.  We think they are able to have decent gpp scores though?

I like CHI RB Herbert to hit value of around 15pts or more.  I am not as confident with KC RB Williams, being able to hit that same mark.   I will have some of each, but more Herbert.  I also believe they are good GPP fades, since they are expected to be owned around 25%.  I like several $7k RBs (Henderson, Taylor, Swift, Gibson, & Mixon) and will focus my builds around those more than the value RBs. 

 

[FatNate]

He's one of the higher touches/game RB this season despite the injuries the last couple weeks.   IMO normal workload = 20+ touches.  

My data backs this up.  Mixon hasn’t had the greatest per carry average and doesn’t always get the targets.  But, has gotten touches and volume running, so with a good matchup and thin group behind him, I think he gets 20 touches or more.  I believe the game plan and game script fits, assuming he is close to 100% healthy. 

 

[KarmaPolice]

I like CHI RB Herbert to hit value of around 15pts or more.  I am not as confident with KC RB Williams, being able to hit that same mark.   I will have some of each, but more Herbert.  I also believe they are good GPP fades, since they are expected to be owned around 25%.  I like several $7k RBs (Henderson, Taylor, Swift, Gibson, & Mixon) and will focus my builds around those more than the value RBs. 

Do I remember right that you are on RG?  It's always interesting to me the differences between the sites.   I wonder if there is ever ratings for how accurate some of these sites are with ownership projections like there seem to be with ratings for projection accuracy.   

Anyway, I see those 2 at about 10%, or RBs 9 and 10.   They were the top 2 RBs on their leverage chart for RBs on FD.   Basically the same on DK, but with just a tad more ownership at 10-12%.  

Looks like the update to the chart was 8hrs ago, so I will for sure look at that more tomorrow as I build LUs.  

 

[KarmaPolice]

My data backs this up.  Mixon hasn’t had the greatest per carry average and doesn’t always get the targets.  But, has gotten touches and volume running, so with a good matchup and thin group behind him, I think he gets 20 touches or more.  I believe the game plan and game script fits, assuming he is close to 100% healthy. 

Yep, and to be fair I will admit that his touches/game have decreased each week since his 33 Week 1, and like you said with those 3 WRs getting 20-25% target volume each, he doesn't get much work in the passing game.    I haven't decided what to do with him yet, but he does have a negative leverage score and with Hunt at the same price without Chubb I like him a bit more and Hunt has same ownership on the chart I saw.  

 

[FatNate]

Do I remember right that you are on RG?  It's always interesting to me the differences between the sites.   I wonder if there is ever ratings for how accurate some of these sites are with ownership projections like there seem to be with ratings for projection accuracy.   

Anyway, I see those 2 at about 10%, or RBs 9 and 10.   They were the top 2 RBs on their leverage chart for RBs on FD.   Basically the same on DK, but with just a tad more ownership at 10-12%.  

Looks like the update to the chart was 8hrs ago, so I will for sure look at that more tomorrow as I build LUs.  

RG will have a big update tomorrow.  Right now Williams is trending as RB1 ownership of 24%.Herbert is still showing at 1%, so I know that needs updated. FBG is showing them as RB7 & RB8 ownership at 17%.  Booker isn’t on my radar, but he shows as RB3 ownership of 21% on RG, but only shows as 13% projected ownership on FBG.  These numbers are for FanDuel. 

 

[FatNate]

Yep, and to be fair I will admit that his touches/game have decreased each week since his 33 Week 1, and like you said with those 3 WRs getting 20-25% target volume each, he doesn't get much work in the passing game.    I haven't decided what to do with him yet, but he does have a negative leverage score and with Hunt at the same price without Chubb I like him a bit more and Hunt has same ownership on the chart I saw.  

FBG are projecting Hunt to be the most owned player of the week at over 30%.  RG has not updated the projection, since the Chubb news broke.  FanDuel numbers also.