NFL.com QB Prospect Grades Since 2014 (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

There is some decent discussion in a bunch of threads discussing incoming QBs vs. other recent draftees, so I figured I would list where these guys all stack up if they were all in a bucket. Clearly not all of them worked out as evaluated, but they were all evaluated none the less. The ratings all come from NFL.com.

Trevor Lawrence - 7.40
Sam Darnold - 7.10
Joe Burrow - 7.07
Mitchell Trubisky - 7.00
Jared Goff - 7.00
Jameis Winston - 7.00
Bryce Young - 6.82
Kyler Murray - 6.80
Deshaun Watson - 6.80
Paxton Lynch - 6.80
Marcus Mariota - 6.80
Blake Bortles - 6.80
Teddy Bridgewater - 6.80
Tua Tagovailoa - 6.77
C.J. Stroud - 6.70
Dwayne Haskins - 6.70
Baked Mayfield - 6.70
Josh Rosen - 6.70
Carson Wentz - 6.70
Zach Wilson - 6.50
Trey Lance - 6.47
Justin Fields 6.45
Justin Herbert - 6.45
Malik Willis - 6.41
Anthony Richardson - 6.40
Kenny Pickett - 6.40
Matt Corral - 6.40
Drew Lock - 6.40
Lamar Jackson - 6.40
Josh Allen - 6.40
Johnny Manziel - 6.40
Desmond Ridder - 6.36
Jordan Love - 6.36
Will Levis - 6.34
Mac Jones - 6.33
Daniel Jones - 6.30
DeShone Kizer - 6.30
Patrick Mahomes - 6.30
Derek Carr - 6.30
Jalen Hurts - 6.14
Jimmy Garoppolo - 5.80

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Looks almost random vs performance

 

[ChiefD]

Just goes to show you that it's a total crapshoot.

 

[Birdie048]

Patrick Mahomes - 6.30
Derek Carr - 6.30
Jalen Hurts - 6.14
Jimmy Garoppolo - 5.80

The bottom 4 make the whole list invalid. I wonder what tools or analytics they are using to determine the value?

 

[-OZ-]

Looks almost random vs performance

Just goes to show you that it's a total crapshoot.

Patrick Mahomes - 6.30
Derek Carr - 6.30
Jalen Hurts - 6.14
Jimmy Garoppolo - 5.80

The bottom 4 make the whole list invalid. I wonder what tools or analytics they are using to determine the value?

Take a 100 sided die and roll.
Seriously a random number generator might have better success.

 

[Hafuxd002020]

Patrick Mahomes - 6.30
Derek Carr - 6.30
Jalen Hurts - 6.14
Jimmy Garoppolo - 5.80

The bottom 4 make the whole list invalid. I wonder what tools or analytics they are using to determine the value?

Had to look it up, but I guess Derek Carr ran a 4.69 40 and Mahomes a 4.8. Apparently ability to extend plays and process reads quickly aren't factored into these ratings.

 

[travdogg]

QB is the toughest position to scout for a reason. That Paxton Lynch ranking especially stands out, as I recall thinking very little of him at the time, but that was before I started doing my own ranks. Speaking of which, for comparisons sake my QB ranks since 2017 are:

Tier 1 can't miss:
Bryce Young
Trevor Lawrence
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Baker Mayfield

Tier 2 elite prospects:
Zach Wilson (oof)
Tua Tagovailoa
Sam Darnold
Justin Fields

Tier 3 great prospects with flaws:
Will Levis (I may be on an island on this board with him)
CJ Stroud
Anthony Richardson
Josh Rosen (double oof)
Trey Lance
Dwayne Haskins

Tier 4 very good prospects:
Mitchell Trubisky
Mac Jones
Deshaun Watson
Lamar Jackson
Mason Rudolph (man was I out on a limb with him)

Tier 5 good prospects that need seasoning:
Will Grier (probably my biggest miss regardless of position)
Patrick Mahomes
Malik Willis
Justin Herbert

Tier 6 decent prospects I don't have strong feelings about:
Sam Howell
Josh Allen
Tanner McKee
Drew Lock
Desmond Ridder
Kenny Pickett
Kyle Lauletta
Matt Corral
Kyle Trask

Tier 7 I'm not a big fan
Jalen Hurts (I grossly overrated him losing his job in college)
DeShone Kizer
Carson Strong
Jake Fromm
Daniel Jones
Jordan Love
Mike White
Davis Mills
Hendon Hooker
Anthony Gordon
Kellen Mond
Ryan Finley

QB is maybe my worst position, but it seems I still hit a little better than NFL.com did.

 

[Donnybrook]

The nfl rating of Sam Darnell kind of surprises me. I recall that Sam had a terrible bowl game. Many thought that he would be a turn-over machine in the NFL - hardly a can’t miss product. Was this a consensus or just Lance Zuerlein or whoever was doing their ratings at the time?

 

[Anarchy99]

The nfl rating of Sam Darnell kind of surprises me. I recall that Sam had a terrible bowl game. Many thought that he would be a turn-over machine in the NFL - hardly a can’t miss product. Was this a consensus or just Lance Zuerlein or whoever was doing their ratings at the time?

That's part of the problem. Some years it was mostly Lance Zierlein, other years it was split among other raters. That would tend to muddy the waters when the same evaluator isn't making all the grades.

 

[eighsse2]

Take a 100 sided die and roll.

Seriously a random number generator might have better success.

Conversely, bring the list to your next D&D campaign and you don't even need the dice.

(Also e*f the quoting system.)

 

[-OZ-]

Patrick Mahomes - 6.30
Derek Carr - 6.30
Jalen Hurts - 6.14
Jimmy Garoppolo - 5.80

The bottom 4 make the whole list invalid. I wonder what tools or analytics they are using to determine the value?

Had to look it up, but I guess Derek Carr ran a 4.69 40 and Mahomes a 4.8. Apparently ability to extend plays and process reads quickly aren't factored into these ratings.

Do the scouts consider peripheral vision and reaction? I might be wrong but it sure seems like Mahomes has both better than most.

 

[Deamon]

Patrick Mahomes - 6.30
Derek Carr - 6.30
Jalen Hurts - 6.14
Jimmy Garoppolo - 5.80

The bottom 4 make the whole list invalid. I wonder what tools or analytics they are using to determine the value?

Good looks and/or running ability.

 

[JohnnyU]

Patrick Mahomes - 6.30
Derek Carr - 6.30
Jalen Hurts - 6.14
Jimmy Garoppolo - 5.80

The bottom 4 make the whole list invalid. I wonder what tools or analytics they are using to determine the value?

Good looks and/or running ability.

Draft QBs on projected endorsements

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Bring a dartboard.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

Just goes to show you that it's a total crapshoot.

Which is why these bad teams should draft one or more every year until you luck into a top 15 QB. I remain completely confused by teams snagging a discarded mid tier QB in free agency and thinking it will fix their problems. Draft 2 and hope one stands out in camp. If not, they'll be drafting higher the next year and get better odds. Other positions are always easy to find in free agency. Bottom 15 discarded starting QBs cost a lot for what a team gets from them.

For instance, my Redskins. Great, we got Brisett. He can be what, a 15-20 ranked QB. And we have a prospect in Howell. That's no mans land. Should have drafted another prospect. Hopefully they still will. in like round 4-6. Like Haener, Duggan or McKee. Odds are that QB won't be an NFL starter, but it's worth the shot rather than getting a 3rd string LB.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Just goes to show you that it's a total crapshoot.

Which is why these bad teams should draft one or more every year until you luck into a top 15 QB. I remain completely confused by teams snagging a discarded mid tier QB in free agency and thinking it will fix their problems. Draft 2 and hope one stands out in camp. If not, they'll be drafting higher the next year and get better odds. Other positions are always easy to find in free agency. Bottom 15 discarded starting QBs cost a lot for what a team gets from them.

For instance, my Redskins. Great, we got Brisett. He can be what, a 15-20 ranked QB. And we have a prospect in Howell. That's no mans land. Should have drafted another prospect. Hopefully they still will. in like round 4-6. Like Haener, Duggan or McKee. Odds are that QB won't be an NFL starter, but it's worth the shot rather than getting a 3rd string LB.

I think teams place way more value on going 8-8 than we do