2022 Draft Class Quarterbacks (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

I really don't watch college football all that often, and the narrative I keep hearing is that this draft class is light on QB talent, especially compared to last year (and potentially next year). For comparison purposes, here are all the pre-draft grades from NFL.com from the past 5 drafts for QBs that were selected in the first or second round . . . with guys from this draft blended in. (These grades were easy to find, and I wasn't looking to search for more sources or more prospect grades.)

Trevor Lawrence - 7.40
Sam Darnold - 7.10
Joe Burrow - 7.07
Mitchell Trubisky - 7.00
Deshaun Watson - 6.80
Tua Tagovailoa - 6.77
Dwayne Haskins - 6.70
Baker Mayfield - 6.70
Kyler Murray - 6.80
Zach Wilson - 6.50
Trey Lance - 6.47
Justin Herbert - 6.45
Justin Fields - 6.45
Malik Willis - 6.41
Kenny Pickett - 6.40
Matt Corral - 6.40
Drew Lock - 6.40
Josh Allen - 6.40
Lamar Jackson - 6.40
Jordan Love - 6.36
Desmond Ridder - 6.36
Mac Jones - 6.33
Daniel Jones - 6.30
Patrick Mahomes - 6.30
DeShone Kizer - 6.30
Sam Howell - 6.22
Kyle Trask - 6.19
Jalen Hurts - 6.14

Draft evaluation isn't an exact science, and players will perform better or worse than they were projected. It doesn't appear that there are any can't miss guys (who often miss once they get to the NFL), but there are still guys in this draft rated higher than Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes. Can the well informed and peeps that follow the college game check in and give an overview about the talent and skill level of the guys coming out this year?

 

[wlwiles]

Years like this make me very glad I don't play SF leagues so I can just ignore the position altogether for draft purposes.  None of them stood out to me in their college days. 

Willis is insanely athletic and may very well hit the league like RG3 did his rookie year, but I don't see it happening.  I think Pickett and Howell are on par with Trubisky and Rosen - avg college QBs who get pushed up the draft board but never amount to anything above journeyman/backups.  Corral would get the nod from me as for "best in this class" but I think his ceiling is Baker Mayfield with more rushing. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

One of these guys had like a 6:1 ratio of TDs to Int and did it at a place not known for terrific passing. Add in there isn't an NFL WR prospect I can find anywhere at WR or TE, who was this guy throwing the ball to when he racked up all these numbers? 

Keep bashing Kenny Pickett

He Sucks!  Rolls to his left, throws across for a TD, fakes a slide and breaks one off running it to the house as mobility seems to be a factor in the NFL now, avoids pass rushes so he isn't working behind the best OL, he throws on the run to his right side as they roll the pocket again compensating for being behind an avg at best OL in college. 

Oh yeah his hands are the size of dwarfs we hear. 

 

[Faust]

Dov Kleiman @NFL_Kleiman

The 2022 #NFL Draft is 18 days away.

Here's Larry David to remind you that even for NFL general managers, the Draft is a crapshoot.

https://twitter.com/nfl_dovkleiman/status/1513146026378604550?s=21
 

Brent Soblesky @brentsobleski

Larry David isn't wrong. Just because certain people have been afforded an opportunity to work in the NFL, this doesn't mean they know exactly what they're doing. Player evaluation is an inexact science. Always has been. Always will be. Why? Because every individual is different.

https://twitter.com/brentsobleski/status/1513148055628881923?s=21

 

[Faust]

NFL analyst Greg Cosell said he "wouldn't be surprised" if five quarterbacks are taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. 

In such a scenario, most -- or all -- of the NFL's quarterback-hungry teams would burn their first-round pick on a signal caller. That would presumably include teams like the Panthers, Lions, Falcons, Steelers, and Seahawks. A handful of QBs flying off the draft board that early would be quite the development in a quarterback draft class widely considered to be ordinary, with no clearcut elite quarterback prospects. Certainly Kenny Pickett -- who has been linked to Carolina in recent weeks -- would be among the first-round quarterbacks, along with dual-threat Liberty QB Malik Willis, Ole' Miss' Matt Corral, and Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder. NBC Sports' Chris Simms has Corral as his top quarterback in the 2022 class. “Corral really excites me,” Simms told NBC Sports' Peter King. “He’s got the quickest release I’ve seen in a while.”

RELATED: 

Malik Willis

, Desmond Ridder

, Pittsburgh Steelers

, Carolina Panthers

, Seattle Seahawks

, Atlanta Falcons

, Detroit Lions

SOURCE: FMIA 

Apr 11, 2022, 9:20 AM ET

 

[Faust]

2022 NFL Draft: Sorting 13 teams by likelihood of taking a QB early, with Panthers, Steelers leading the pack

 

[Obie Wan]

One of these guys had like a 6:1 ratio of TDs to Int and did it at a place not known for terrific passing. Add in there isn't an NFL WR prospect I can find anywhere at WR or TE, who was this guy throwing the ball to when he racked up all these numbers? 

Keep bashing Kenny Pickett

He Sucks!  Rolls to his left, throws across for a TD, fakes a slide and breaks one off running it to the house as mobility seems to be a factor in the NFL now, avoids pass rushes so he isn't working behind the best OL, he throws on the run to his right side as they roll the pocket again compensating for being behind an avg at best OL in college. 

Oh yeah his hands are the size of dwarfs we hear. 

I do believe there is a concerted effort by some behind the scenes players influencing the narrative to get him to drop in the draft, to a spot a team can reach.

probably more than 1 team with a mid to late round pick who share this interest

 

[Sam Quentin]

I really don't watch college football all that often, and the narrative I keep hearing is that this draft class is light on QB talent, especially compared to last year (and potentially next year). For comparison purposes, here are all the pre-draft grades from NFL.com from the past 5 drafts for QBs that were selected in the first or second round . . . with guys from this draft blended in. (These grades were easy to find, and I wasn't looking to search for more sources or more prospect grades.)

Trevor Lawrence - 7.40
Sam Darnold - 7.10
Joe Burrow - 7.07
Mitchell Trubisky - 7.00
Deshaun Watson - 6.80
Tua Tagovailoa - 6.77
Dwayne Haskins - 6.70
Baker Mayfield - 6.70
Kyler Murray - 6.80
Zach Wilson - 6.50
Trey Lance - 6.47
Justin Herbert - 6.45
Justin Fields - 6.45
Malik Willis - 6.41
Kenny Pickett - 6.40
Matt Corral - 6.40
Drew Lock - 6.40
Josh Allen - 6.40
Lamar Jackson - 6.40
Jordan Love - 6.36
Desmond Ridder - 6.36
Mac Jones - 6.33
Daniel Jones - 6.30
Patrick Mahomes - 6.30
DeShone Kizer - 6.30
Sam Howell - 6.22
Kyle Trask - 6.19
Jalen Hurts - 6.14

Draft evaluation isn't an exact science, and players will perform better or worse than they were projected. It doesn't appear that there are any can't miss guys (who often miss once they get to the NFL), but there are still guys in this draft rated higher than Allen, Jackson, and Mahomes. Can the well informed and peeps that follow the college game check in and give an overview about the talent and skill level of the guys coming out this year?

These draft grades look incredibly unpredictive. 

 

[Obie Wan]

These draft grades look incredibly unpredictive. 

QBs, except for a few GMs who have discovered the secret recipe, have been incredibly hard to predict based on the most common metrics used to evaluate prospects

can you say completion %?

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

These draft grades look incredibly unpredictive. 

It is only a narrow part of the spectrum 

 

[Bracie Smathers]

For comparison purposes, here are all the pre-draft grades from NFL.com from the past 5 drafts

QBs top-six past TEN drafts

Note about quarterbacks picked in the top six recently, and Carolina picking sixth overall: In the last 10 drafts, 18 quarterbacks have been picked in the top six. It’s too early to know about the three from 2021—Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance. Of the other 15 passers picked in the top six since 2012, two and maybe three appear to be long-term answers for their teams: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and maybe Kyler Murray. Tua Tagovailoa might be one. But the others—Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones—are either long gone from the teams that drafted them or a long shot to be a 10-year starter there.

That’s a daunting thing, to pick a quarterback who’s not a sure thing with all the pressure to make it that has eaten alive some of the previous high picks.

 

[Obie Wan]

QBs top-six past TEN drafts

Note about quarterbacks picked in the top six recently, and Carolina picking sixth overall: In the last 10 drafts, 18 quarterbacks have been picked in the top six. It’s too early to know about the three from 2021—Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance. Of the other 15 passers picked in the top six since 2012, two and maybe three appear to be long-term answers for their teams: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and maybe Kyler Murray. Tua Tagovailoa might be one. But the others—Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones—are either long gone from the teams that drafted them or a long shot to be a 10-year starter there.

That’s a daunting thing, to pick a quarterback who’s not a sure thing with all the pressure to make it that has eaten alive some of the previous high picks.

always helpful to create an artificial cut-off to support your narrative

 

[Faust]

QBASE: Pickett, Corral Lead Lukewarm Quarterback Class

Excerpt:

Conclusion

Will a quarterback be drafted highly this year? Most likely yes, given that need and desperation have historically clouded teams' judgement. And hitting on a quarterback is so important that teams are understandably willing to take bigger risks than with other positions. But the warning signs this year are strong, with our model projecting that none of these quarterbacks will perform significantly above replacement value. In turn, these low projections mean that our model is less predictive than usual about the order in which these quarterbacks will be drafted, especially considering a team could fall in love with one of them as the New York Giants did with Daniel Jones. Ultimately, the story of this year's QBASE 2.0 is that buyers should beware.

That being said, each of the first five quarterbacks listed above has a 15% to 25% chance of becoming a high-quality starter. Which means that collectively, there is a very good chance one of these quarterbacks outperforms our projections. Specifically, there's a 28% chance that at least one of them becomes an elite starter and a 68% chance that at least one becomes an upper-tier starter. We just aren't willing to go bet on any of them to be the one.

 

[Obie Wan]

QBASE: Pickett, Corral Lead Lukewarm Quarterback Class

Excerpt:

"each of the first five quarterbacks listed above has a 15% to 25% chance of becoming a high-quality starter"

the unstated flip side is that there is 0% chance of upgrading at QB if you continu3e to wait for next year and the next sure thing

 

[Leroy Hoard]

"each of the first five quarterbacks listed above has a 15% to 25% chance of becoming a high-quality starter"

the unstated flip side is that there is 0% chance of upgrading at QB if you continu3e to wait for next year and the next sure thing

Wayne Gretzky: "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take".

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

"each of the first five quarterbacks listed above has a 15% to 25% chance of becoming a high-quality starter"

the unstated flip side is that there is 0% chance of upgrading at QB if you continu3e to wait for next year and the next sure thing

They are also ignoring that other players also bust frequently. 

 

[Anarchy99]

They are also ignoring that other players also bust frequently. 

Other players bust . . . but generally speaking those players aren't late first / second round prospects that are taken way earlier only because they are QBs.

 

[Gatorman]

This draft shakes out pretty interestingly because most teams have positioned themselves to wait a year for a QB.  The only exception in this case is likely Carolina, mainly bc the owner is being impatient.  Now you do have teams that likely would like more clarity for next year, so it becomes an interesting case of "do I take someone now to develop and see where we are next year" or "Just grab a guy".

Let's take a look:

Steelers, Panthers, Atlanta, Seahawks, have a need right now, but all have a placeholder there that may be their starter in 2023.

Houston, Miami, Philly, Washington, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, both new York teams, Indy, detroit, all are "locked and loaded" for 2022 but the 2023 draft class will matter to them (the first 3 teams if the guy they have there now doesn't improve. The rest is because they may likely be treading water at the position for now but have big decisions in 2023)

Arizona, the Rams, Denver, Dallas, the bills, Tennessee all have solid starters, but could use a "project backup" just in case.

 

[MAC_32]

This draft shakes out pretty interestingly because most teams have positioned themselves to wait a year for a QB.  The only exception in this case is likely Carolina, mainly bc the owner is being impatient.  Now you do have teams that likely would like more clarity for next year, so it becomes an interesting case of "do I take someone now to develop and see where we are next year" or "Just grab a guy".

Let's take a look:

Steelers, Panthers, Atlanta, Seahawks, have a need right now, but all have a placeholder there that may be their starter in 2023.

Houston, Miami, Philly, Washington, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, both new York teams, Indy, detroit, all are "locked and loaded" for 2022 but the 2023 draft class will matter to them (the first 3 teams if the guy they have there now doesn't improve. The rest is because they may likely be treading water at the position for now but have big decisions in 2023)

Arizona, the Rams, Denver, Dallas, the bills, Tennessee all have solid starters, but could use a "project backup" just in case.

I agree with your overall assessment, but picking a QB round 1 sacrifices a starter at another position. The question to ask one's self then becomes is that worth it? And that's where I think individual assessments trump all. A dart throw a la Jordan Love is not the answer, but a strategic decision a la Lamar Jackson is another story.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

I agree with your overall assessment, but picking a QB round 1 sacrifices a starter at another position. The question to ask one's self then becomes is that worth it? And that's where I think individual assessments trump all. A dart throw a la Jordan Love is not the answer, but a strategic decision a la Lamar Jackson is another story.

The only difference is you know the outcome. 

 

[Gatorman]

I agree with your overall assessment, but picking a QB round 1 sacrifices a starter at another position. The question to ask one's self then becomes is that worth it? And that's where I think individual assessments trump all. A dart throw a la Jordan Love is not the answer, but a strategic decision a la Lamar Jackson is another story.

totally with you there, and any sane FO type would likely "go with what they have" and let value fall to them, but jobs are on the line and getting a QB wrong is such a setback that when you fall in love with one you want them no matter what.

Most teams "should" punt this year but desperation is desperation.

 

[Anarchy99]

totally with you there, and any sane FO type would likely "go with what they have" and let value fall to them, but jobs are on the line and getting a QB wrong is such a setback that when you fall in love with one you want them no matter what.

Most teams "should" punt this year but desperation is desperation.

Part of the issue these days is a bunch of QBs have played way longer than was the usual timeframe for QBs to keep playing . . . Brady, Brees, Rivers, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, etc. proved you can get a lot more out of a QB than ever before. For some QBs, burning a pick and grooming the next guy is a bone of contention, so having a succession plan can get uncomfortable. 

Another part of the issue is head coaches have to win now or be out of a job, and if they don't have a viable QB they are halfway out the door. Getting a good lineman or cornerback is not going to take a 5-12 team to a playoff contender. Many teams / coaches / GMs would rather swing for the fences for a QB. That can get even messier if the team invested multiple first round picks to move up to get "their guy." Leap frogging teams to vault higher in the draft carries the same risk factors. No way around it . . . making a bold move on draft day or burning an early draft pick on a QB can mess with a team for years (ask the Jets or Browns).

 

[Tau837]

always helpful to create an artificial cut-off to support your narrative

I suppose one could argue that top 6 is arbitrary, since top 5 or top 10 or first round seem like more common/intuitive cutoffs. I don't see anything arbitrary about using 10 years.

Wherever you choose to cut off the picks in a sample, the success rate of drafting first round QBs is poor.

I understand that it is a real challenge for teams without a franchise QB, because it is hard to get one. I assume that is why we have seen more movement of strong QBs via trades recently (e.g., Stafford, Wilson, Watson). I also recognize that players at other positions also bust, though I expect without taking the time to research it that the success rate for QB is lower than all other positions.

 

[Obie Wan]

I suppose one could argue that top 6 is arbitrary, since top 5 or top 10 or first round seem like more common/intuitive cutoffs. I don't see anything arbitrary about using 10 years.

Wherever you choose to cut off the picks in a sample, the success rate of drafting first round QBs is poor.

I understand that it is a real challenge for teams without a franchise QB, because it is hard to get one. I assume that is why we have seen more movement of strong QBs via trades recently (e.g., Stafford, Wilson, Watson). I also recognize that players at other positions also bust, though I expect without taking the time to research it that the success rate for QB is lower than all other positions.

using 6 to buttress your claim that top "6" 1st rd QBs are bad is bogus when Josh Allen went 7

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Three top QBs: Tiny child-like hands, off-field issues, & a 2-3 year project?  Count me out. 

 

[Tau837]

using 6 to buttress your claim that top "6" 1st rd QBs are bad is bogus when Josh Allen went 7

Clearly, you didn't actually read the article. The section of the article the quote was taken from is: ON CAROLINA WITH THE SIXTH OVERALL PICK

So, yeah, looking at top 6 made perfect sense without "creating an artificial cutoff to support a narrative."

In addition, King's quote was: "Of the other 15 passers picked in the top six since 2012, two and maybe three appear to be long-term answers for their teams: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and maybe Kyler Murray." Well, only 2 QBs in the sample were picked #6 -- Herbert and Daniel Jones.

So if he was really wanting to create a narrative, he could have used top 5, a more natural cutoff, and written: "Of the other 13 passers picked in the top six since 2012, Burrow is the only one who is clearly a long-term answer for his team, and maybe Kyler Murray will turn out to be as well." Clearly, that is better for the type of narrative you claimed he was writing, since 1-2 out of 13 is worse than 2-3 out of 15.

 

[-OZ-]

I also recognize that players at other positions also bust, though I expect without taking the time to research it that the success rate for QB is lower than all other positions.

A couple things going there imo. First, there’s only one QB per team at a time who could be considered successful. No other premier position has that limitation. It’s the most noticeable position by far. An edge rusher has a bad play or two, almost nobody notices. QB has a bad play, everyone knows. Kicker can be as noticeable but maybe a few times per game and their job is relatively easier. QB gets overdrafted for all the same reasons. Similar quality players at other positions go anywhere from a few picks to a round or more later. If QB wasn’t as important, none of these guys this year would be discussed as first round picks. That over reaching automatically makes a higher chance to bust. It’s easily the most complex and cerebral position while still being physical. Even the jump from SEC to the NFL is huge. The jump from small college to the NFL is virtually immeasurable. 

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Saw this and didn't see a thread that was a good fit so posting here.
Interesting ppg stats over first three years.
-----------
David Todd
@DavidMTodd

CIN Burrow's rookie yr: 19.4 pts/gm
2nd yr: 26.3 pts
3rd yr: 26.0

BUF Allen's rookie yr: 16.8 pts/gm
2nd yr: 19.6 pts
3rd yr: 29.9 pts

KC Mahomes' rookie yr (Smith QB): 25.6 pts/gm
2nd yr: 34.8 pts
3rd yr: 29.9 pts

LAC Herbert's rookie yr: 24.0 pts/gm
2nd yr: 27.9
3rd yr: 23.4