DSchuler’s QB Change Probability: 4 new starters, more on the way? Packers accumulate draft assets, Cardinals back in play for #1 pick (1 Viewer)

[dschuler]

It would be tough for Purdy to go to a 0 based on his rookie contract and draft capital in the way I determine a probability in my calculator but I expect him to go to a solid 1 if he keeps playing well. He’s just too easily expendable and we are still only 5 weeks in but he looks amazing

Great stuff across the board. But this take is off IMO. Maybe your method can be improved? (Not an insult by any stretch, this is good stuff and the discussion is appreciated)
The guy has never lost a game he finished. He’s playing extremely well, his coach and teammates seem to really like the guy. Yes he’s cheap, but that cost allows the owner to pay the rest of the team. There’s no reason to replace him and he’s definitely earned the right to start for the foreseeable future. It will be hard for him to get MVP votes but he’s playing much closer to MVP caliber than any threat of losing his job. Barring catastrophic injury he’s not being replaced.

I don’t disagree with anything you just said. But we are only 5 weeks in. My probability equation accounts for rookie contract/draft capital that bump him a little, that’s all. His cheap deal is very helpful to the team but not the security of his job. Also, if you argument about his contract is availability to getting more players, he’s not going to be cheap much longer and by that logic the Niners would be looking for a replacement soon. I imagine him wanting to get paid next year. Keep in mind his contract is basically a year shorter since he was a 7th round pick. On the next update he’s solidly a grade 1. I don’t really want to debate on 3-5 percent change versus a less than 2 percent change as that is kinda splitting hairs. There is also a tremendous amount of win pressure now on that franchise to win the Super Bowl now, so his margin for error is much slimmer so I have a small adjustment graded for that. Obviously he’s playing amazing but we are 5 weeks in. Dallas looked like the best team in the league after week 2 and now looks mediocre. The league changes quickly.

 

[-OZ-]

we are 5 weeks in.

This year sure. But he also has 7+ games before this season.
I get what you’re saying though.

 

[Tau837]

It would be tough for Purdy to go to a 0 based on his rookie contract and draft capital in the way I determine a probability in my calculator but I expect him to go to a solid 1 if he keeps playing well. He’s just too easily expendable and we are still only 5 weeks in but he looks amazing

Great stuff across the board. But this take is off IMO. Maybe your method can be improved? (Not an insult by any stretch, this is good stuff and the discussion is appreciated)
The guy has never lost a game he finished. He’s playing extremely well, his coach and teammates seem to really like the guy. Yes he’s cheap, but that cost allows the owner to pay the rest of the team. There’s no reason to replace him and he’s definitely earned the right to start for the foreseeable future. It will be hard for him to get MVP votes but he’s playing much closer to MVP caliber than any threat of losing his job. Barring catastrophic injury he’s not being replaced.

I was going to respond to this quote by @dschuler but now can just reply to this.

Purdy is 12-0 in games he started and didn't get hurt in. He is leading the league in passer rating, QBR, and a few other advanced metrics. Shanahan raves about him. He has Sam freaking Darnold as his backup, and the team traded away Lance despite all the draft capital they expended on him... because of Purdy.

If your methodology doesn't have him as a Group 0 right now, then I respectfully suggest that your methodology has room for improvement. There is zero chance Purdy is not starting for SF in game 1 of 2024 unless he suffers a catastrophic injury, which is unlikely and cannot be predicted, and I think there is no virtually no chance the 49ers draft a QB within the first 2 rounds in the 2024 draft. You don't even have him in Group 1, saying here that he will "go to a solid 1 if he keeps playing well."

BTW I am a Chargers fan, not a 49ers fan. I have no Purdy bias, but IMO this is obvious.

 

[Tau837]

I don’t really want to debate on 3-5 percent change versus a less than 2 percent change as that is kinda splitting hairs.

Fair enough. But you are the one who created two different groups that you now refer to as "splitting hairs." Furthermore, you defined group 1 as 3-10%, not 3-5%. IMO up to 10% vs. less than 2% is not splitting hairs.

His cheap deal is very helpful to the team but not the security of his job. Also, if you argument about his contract is availability to getting more players, he’s not going to be cheap much longer and by that logic the Niners would be looking for a replacement soon. I imagine him wanting to get paid next year. Keep in mind his contract is basically a year shorter since he was a 7th round pick.

You are looking at this the wrong way IMO. You seem to be assuming that the reason a contract helps a QB's job security is solely about the amount of the contract and the dead money that would be incurred by replacing the QB.

Purdy's contract is the most valuable contract in the NFL right now. Read that again, it's true.

You say you imagine him wanting to get paid next year. Like all rookies, he cannot renegotiate or extend his current rookie contract until after his third season. This is his second season. He absolutely will be playing on his current contract in 2024, so this is a non-issue.

You point out that his contract is "basically a year shorter." That isn't true. His rookie contract is 4 years in duration, like all rookie contracts, and he is under contract through 2025. What I assume you are getting at is that the 49ers will not be able to exercise a 5th year option for him since he wasn't a first round pick. But it doesn't really matter. All of the first round QBs who pan out as franchise QBs (e.g., Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, et al.) have their 5th year option exercised and then get a contract extension in the same offseason. The only exception I can think of is Lamar Jackson, but that was by his choice, not his team's choice. Again, this is a non-issue for your focus here, which is on game 1 of 2024 and 2024 draft capital.

I'll agree to disagree about it, and, again, I appreciate the thread and the effort you are putting in.

 

[dschuler]

Purdy's contract is the most valuable contract in the NFL right now. Read that again, it's true.

I appreciate the input and I do adjust my inputs accordingly from good arguments. Let’s just take out the odds of him getting replaced since we all think it’s very low. You are right about his contract being the most valuable and I completely agree. However, if something is too good to be true, it probably is. We rarely see a situation like this (Dak) a low draft pick QB turned franchise QB on rookie deal since the rookie contracts and salary cap was restructured. Let’s compare the Tua and Purdy rookie deal. Tua will get paid $53 million over five years and $30 million in his first four. Purdy, on the other hand with his “valuable” contract, is only going to be paid $3.7 million over four years, less than $1 million per year. So although they are both on their rookie deal, Tua’s rookie deal is $50 million more than Purdy’s, over 1400% higher. If Purdy continues to play this well, he’s certainly not going to want to be playing next season on lunch money. From a Niner perspective, their window is basically this year and maybe next year. After that, Purdy will need to get paid and CMC is probably gone or very average due to his age plus a slew of others they will have to decide to keep or not.

 

[Tau837]

If Purdy continues to play this well, he’s certainly not going to want to be playing next season on lunch money.

He literally has no choice unless he prefers to retire. He knows he will get a huge payday after next season. He isn't going to do anything stupid to jeopardize that.

From a Niner perspective, their window is basically this year and maybe next year.

Purdy's big money will start in 2026, the first year of his extension. The 49ers have a 3 season window before that happens.

 

[renesauz]

It would be tough for Purdy to go to a 0 based on his rookie contract and draft capital in the way I determine a probability in my calculator but I expect him to go to a solid 1 if he keeps playing well. He’s just too easily expendable and we are still only 5 weeks in but he looks amazing

Great stuff across the board. But this take is off IMO. Maybe your method can be improved? (Not an insult by any stretch, this is good stuff and the discussion is appreciated)
The guy has never lost a game he finished. He’s playing extremely well, his coach and teammates seem to really like the guy. Yes he’s cheap, but that cost allows the owner to pay the rest of the team. There’s no reason to replace him and he’s definitely earned the right to start for the foreseeable future. It will be hard for him to get MVP votes but he’s playing much closer to MVP caliber than any threat of losing his job. Barring catastrophic injury he’s not being replaced.

I've been a Purdy doubter, but he's one of the more glaring errors here. Team (and fans) love him and he's playing well. Several others are laughable rankings also. I applaud the thread and the idea, just not your rankings

 

[Tau837]

If Purdy continues to play this well, he’s certainly not going to want to be playing next season on lunch money.

He literally has no choice unless he prefers to retire. He knows he will get a huge payday after next season. He isn't going to do anything stupid to jeopardize that.

From a Niner perspective, their window is basically this year and maybe next year.

Purdy's big money will start in 2026, the first year of his extension. The 49ers have a 3 season window before that happens.

You posted a laughing emoji because... what, you think something I wrote here is wrong? It's not.

 

[dschuler]

If Purdy continues to play this well, he’s certainly not going to want to be playing next season on lunch money.

He literally has no choice unless he prefers to retire. He knows he will get a huge payday after next season. He isn't going to do anything stupid to jeopardize that.

From a Niner perspective, their window is basically this year and maybe next year.

Purdy's big money will start in 2026, the first year of his extension. The 49ers have a 3 season window before that happens.

You posted a laughing emoji because... what, you think something I wrote here is wrong? It's not.

On one hand you say Brock Purdy is an amazing QB. Then in the same breath you say Brock Purdy is going to play another 3 YEARS MAKING LESS MONEY THAN THE NINERS 3RD ROUND ROOKIE KICKER. Think about how ridiculous that sounds, then report back.

He literally has no choice unless he prefers to retire. He knows he will get a huge payday after next season. He isn't going to do anything stupid to jeopardize that

Tell that to Jalen Hurts, 2026 is a long ways away.

 

[dschuler]

Purdy makes the biggest leap so far in the calculator going from a 4 to a 1. He’s played phenomenal and looks to be a long term solution.

Watson played much better as of late and the haters looking to see the Browns backup QB were quickly disappointed.

Mac Jones has quickly progressed from a coin flip to high probability. While I don’t blame it all on him and think he will play somewhere else, he seems like a fall guy for BB.

With JJ going out, I really want to move Kirk to zone 6 but I’ll wait and see how the next couple of weeks go. I took a lot of heat for having him so high in the beginning of the year, but I knew the Vikings were going to be rebuilding and this scenario was probable.

Kyler Murray goes from a 6 to a 5. The Texans keep playing well and so do the Cardinals. There is a good chance those picks are outside of the top 5, so Caleb and Drake Maye would already be off the board. Plus, the Cardinals HC has really been talking very positive about Kyler all season long and I’m starting to believe there is a scenario where they keep him around.

As the Lions continue to win, Goff’s benching probability for 2024 will continue to decrease. The Sportsbook having them at about a 10-15% chance to NOT make the playoffs, which safely puts him in grade 2 or borderline grade 1. The Lions missing the playoffs could result in a QB change next season, though highly unlikely.

Tua’s probability has revolved around his health along with him in the last year of his contract. As each week progresses a season ending injury risk goes down. It’s similar to a stock option decaying closer to OPEX. He will be grade 2 then 1 as we get closer to mid and end of season barring health.

Really having a tough time with Dak and Jordan Love. The Packers will have a first round pick with several elite QB options available in the draft, and Love’s performances have been hit or miss. He’s very expendable from a contract scenario so it makes his departure much easier.

Dak looks slower and less elusive by the week. He seems to have disappeared in big moments and the Cowboys made a statement trading for Lance. PFF had him graded as the 15th best QB before the SF game, and I’m starting to feel that is closer to his ceiling than floor. The Cowboys will likely not be bad enough to get a top pick, but the depth of this QB class will be unique enough to give them plenty of options in the first two rounds. It’s worth keeping an eye on.

The contract of Russell Wilson has a lot of leverage to hold the team at ransom and historically give him job security, but this wasn’t Sean Payton’s guy. The media talking heads seem to think it’s more and more likely Russell is on is way out, and I tend to agree. Their poor record will give them lots of rookie QB options, and no way would they pass on Caleb or Drake, but probably not the 3rd or 4th option in the draft either. They played the Chiefs 2 out of the next 3 games followed by the Bills,Lions, and Chargers shortly afterwards. The Vikings Broncos matchup coming up with be interesting to watch from a draft scenario.

Although Fields has played better, the Bears are projected to have the #1 pick and likely two of the top 5. Can’t see them passing on Caleb or Drake Maye. Will not move his ranking regardless of play unless this changes.

 

[Tau837]

On one hand you say Brock Purdy is an amazing QB. Then in the same breath you say Brock Purdy is going to play another 3 YEARS MAKING LESS MONEY THAN THE NINERS 3RD ROUND ROOKIE KICKER. Think about how ridiculous that sounds, then report back.

That is not exactly what I wrote, don't misrepresent it. Purdy is going to play the first 3 years of his career (2022-2024) under the terms of his rookie contract. He has no choice, that is dictated by the Collective Bargaining Agreement (maybe you've heard of that?).

Then, assuming no catastrophic injury and no massive dropoff in his play, and assuming he doesn't go the Lamar Jackson route and refuse to sign it, he will execute a contract extension with the 49ers after the 2024 season. However many years the extension covers will be added after year 4 of his contract (2025). So if he signs a 5 year extension, that will put him under contract to the 49ers through 2030.

His compensation will go up in 2025, the 4th year of his rookie deal, because of the signing bonus associated with his extension. But typically the bigger jump doesn't occur until the first year of the extension, which in this case would be 2026. This is a pattern that has held for every QB who has signed big extensions in recent years.

Tell that to Jalen Hurts, 2026 is a long ways away.

Jalen Hurts is a great comp, since he was not drafted in the first round and thus also had no 5th year option. He was drafted in 2020 and signed a 5 year $255M contract extension after his 3rd season (2022). Here are his cap hits by year:

2020 - $1.1M
2021 - $1.4M
2022 - $1.6M
2023 - $6.2M - 4th season jumped but not by much; his cap hit is #27 among QBs
2024 - $13.6M - first year of extension, another jump but not by much
2025 - $21.8M
2026 - $31.8M
2027 - $41.8M
2028 - $47.1M
2029-2032 - $85M+ in cap hits for void years, but Hurts not currently under contract beyond 2028

Maybe you should learn a bit more about how NFL contracts work before you attempt to ridicule other people's takes about them.

What's more, the identified purpose of this thread is to focus on the probability of QB change by game 1 in 2024, or use of 1st/2nd round pick on QB in the 2024 draft. None of this Purdy contract stuff has anything to do with that. Glad to see you at least moved him to Group 1.

 

[dschuler]

On one hand you say Brock Purdy is an amazing QB. Then in the same breath you say Brock Purdy is going to play another 3 YEARS MAKING LESS MONEY THAN THE NINERS 3RD ROUND ROOKIE KICKER. Think about how ridiculous that sounds, then report back.

That is not exactly what I wrote, don't misrepresent it. Purdy is going to play the first 3 years of his career (2022-2024) under the terms of his rookie contract. He has no choice, that is dictated by the Collective Bargaining Agreement (maybe you've heard of that?).

That’s actually exactly what you wrote. See below. You either misspoke then or are misspoken now.

Purdy's big money will start in 2026, the first year of his extension. The 49ers have a 3 season window before that happens.

Jalen Hurts got paid after his third year going into his fourth year in the league. For Brock Purdy, that would be after the 2024 season going into 2025. Not 2026.

There’s plenty of other incorrect things you brought up, but I’ll leave it at bay.

Next time you claim to someone they don’t know how contracts work, at least know how to count first.

 

[Tau837]

On one hand you say Brock Purdy is an amazing QB. Then in the same breath you say Brock Purdy is going to play another 3 YEARS MAKING LESS MONEY THAN THE NINERS 3RD ROUND ROOKIE KICKER. Think about how ridiculous that sounds, then report back.

That is not exactly what I wrote, don't misrepresent it. Purdy is going to play the first 3 years of his career (2022-2024) under the terms of his rookie contract. He has no choice, that is dictated by the Collective Bargaining Agreement (maybe you've heard of that?).

That’s actually exactly what you wrote. See below. You either misspoke then or are misspoken now.

Purdy's big money will start in 2026, the first year of his extension. The 49ers have a 3 season window before that happens.

Jalen Hurts got paid after his third year going into his fourth year in the league. For Brock Purdy, that would be after the 2024 season going into 2025. Not 2026.

There’s plenty of other incorrect things you brought up, but I’ll leave it at bay.

Next time you claim to someone they don’t know how contracts work, at least know how to count first.

You were talking about window for 49ers, which is about cap hits. I correctly pointed out that his cap hit will not increase substantially until 2026. I also did not say he would get paid less than the rookie kicker for another 3 years, to include the 4th year.

Yes, as I just pointed out in my last post, Purdy will get a signing bonus after his third season, but his cap hit will grow by a relatively small amount, assuming his extension follows the same pattern as Hurts' extension.

More importantly, this entire tangent began when you said this:

If Purdy continues to play this well, he’s certainly not going to want to be playing next season on lunch money. From a Niner perspective, their window is basically this year and maybe next year.

Both of these sentences are wrong, as I pointed out.

Forget it, you clearly aren't open to the facts in this discussion. You can have the last word and carry on.

 

[dschuler]

Last year out of the five most likely QBs to get benched, only one survived to be the starter the following year.

2022 Bench Candidates From pre-season 2022. The five most likely QBs to get benched were:

1. Marcus Mariota - Atl
2. Matt Ryan - Ind
3. Geno Smith - Sea
4. Baker Mayfield - Car
5. Mitchell Trubisky - Pit

2023 Bench Candidates Leaving out the rookies this season, the top 5 heading into the year this season were

1. Baker Mayfield
2. Sam Howell
3. Ryan Tannehill
4. Mac Jones
5. Desmond Ridder

Could Baker Mayfield be this years Geno Smith?

 

[Donnybrook]

The potential 2024 QB draft class absolutely put up NUMBERS yet again in week four.

Caleb Williams (USC): 20/31 (65%), 322 yards, 5 total TD’s, 69.7 QBR

Drake Maye (UNC): 22/30 (73%), 296 yards, 3 total TD’s, 94.2 QBR

Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): 23/33 (70%), 159 yards, 1 total TD, 28.2 QBR

Michael Penix Jr. (UW): 19/25 (76%), 304 yards, 4 total TD’s, 92.9 QBR

Quinn Ewers (Texas): 18/23 (78%), 293 yards, 2 total TD’s, 96.2 QBR

JJ McCarthy (Michigan): 15/21 (71%), 214 yards, 51 rushing yards, 1 TD, 96.8 QBR

Bo Nix (Oregon): 28/33 (85%), 276 yards, 4 total TD’s, 1 INT, 75.7 QBR

Riley Leonard (Duke): 23/34 (68%), 248 yards, 2 total TD’s, 52.5 QBR

Spencer Rattler (SC): 18/20 (90%), 288 yards, 43 rushing yards, 3 total TD’s, 96.7 QBR

Joe Milton (Tennessee): 18/31 (58%), 209 yards, 89 rushing yards, 3 total TD’s, 86.0 QBR

Jordan Travis (FSU): 21/37 (57%), 289 yards, 3 total TD’s, 87.2 QBR

Jayden Daniels (LSU): 20/29 (69%), 320 yards, 4 total TD’s, 1 INT, 85.4 QBR

Carson Beck (Georgia): 22/32 (69%), 338 yards, 4 total TD’s, 83.9 QBR

Cameron Ward (WSU): 28/34 (82%), 404 yards, 5 total TD’s, 93.0 QBR

Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma): 26/38 (68%), 322 yards, 2 total TD’s, 70.3 QBR

I would take Michael Pratt over most QBs listed here.

 

[dschuler]

Colt McCoy works out with Vikings, backup QB Mullens is hurt. Could it mean something else?

https://x.com/fieldyates/status/1711847368318951541?s=46&t=vWQC476i2umrR_orSxFhtA

 

[babydemon90]

Washington benching Howell is pretty unlikely unless his play goes way downhill - AND the team wins some games from the defense. That said, if they're in playoff contention and Howell is stinking up the joint, I could see them giving Jacoby Brisset a shot.

Atlanta SHOULD bench Ridder for Heinicke though.

 

[dschuler]

With the trade deadline approaching, we may start the see the first QBs change hands.

The Titans are already making moves on their roster to signify a rebuild and Levis/Willis may start rest of year regardless of Tannehill’s recovery.

The Cardinals have the Texans 2024 1st round pick but they already have 3 wins and it won’t be a top 3 pick that many projected before the season. Kyler is now off the injury list and has a very favorable fantasy schedule rest of year. Since the Cardinals won’t have the pick to take either Caleb or Drake Maye without making trades and Murray is now healthy, I’ve moved Murray to less likely than before.

After a colorful discussion about not putting Purdy at the same probability as Mahomes, he laid two eggs over the last two weeks and looked like a young QB at times on a win now team. Although it’s highly unlikely SF finds another QB, a small opportunity still exists. Is there a 3% Cousins decides to play a year at a cost friendly deal to win a ring? Sure.

Jordan Love has struggled considerably as of late and doesn’t cost the Packers much in the foreseeable future. They will have the draft capital to select another first round talent next year if this trend continues.



Mac Jones moves to category 5 after a great win last week. The Patriots have several winnable games rest of year to include the Jets, Broncos, Commanders, Giants, Colts, and Steelers.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

With the trade deadline approaching, we may start the see the first QBs change hands.

The Titans are already making moves on their roster to signify a rebuild and Levis/Willis may start rest of year regardless of Tannehill’s recovery.

The Cardinals have the Texans 2024 1st round pick but they already have 3 wins and it won’t be a top 3 pick that many projected before the season. Kyler is now off the injury list and has a very favorable fantasy schedule rest of year. Since the Cardinals won’t have the pick to take either Caleb or Drake Maye without making trades and Murray is now healthy, I’ve moved Murray to less likely than before.

After a colorful discussion about not putting Purdy at the same probability as Mahomes, he laid two eggs over the last two weeks and looked like a young QB at times on a win now team. Although it’s highly unlikely SF finds another QB, a small opportunity still exists. Is there a 3% Cousins decides to play a year at a cost friendly deal to win a ring? Sure.

Jordan Love has struggled considerably as of late and doesn’t cost the Packers much in the foreseeable future. They will have the draft capital to select another first round talent next year if this trend continues.



Mac Jones moves to category 5 after a great win last week. The Patriots have several winnable games rest of year to include the Jets, Broncos, Commanders, Giants, Colts, and Steelers.

Houston has a crazy easy schedule. I agree at this point a top 3 pick seems out. I wouldn't expect it to be top 10. The Cardinals also have their pick, which might be number 1.

 

[Biabreakable]

In regards to Cousins I did not know he had a no trade clause in his new contract. He had this before but it was waived in the 2022 season, so last time we touched on this I thought that no trade clause was gone.

Maybe you already knew this, but just sharing in case you didn't.

Cousins is still a free agent in 2024. With the way he is playing the Vikings may be more inclined to giving Cousins a new deal and Cousins has stated pretty clearly he wants to stay with the Vikings as well. So this seems more likely to happen than it did a month ago to me.

 

[Tau837]

After a colorful discussion about not putting Purdy at the same probability as Mahomes, he laid two eggs over the last two weeks and looked like a young QB at times on a win now team. Although it’s highly unlikely SF finds another QB, a small opportunity still exists. Is there a 3% Cousins decides to play a year at a cost friendly deal to win a ring? Sure.

It seems you are suggesting here that Cousins could get traded to SF to supplant Purdy for a Super Bowl push this season. If so, it was already reported that Cousins will not waive his no trade clause and will not be traded, when there was speculation that the Jets could try to trade for him. It also wouldn't require a "cost friendly" deal, because the 49ers have a huge amount of available cap space ($43M), most in the league. I think it is very possible the 49ers will make a trade or two, just not for a QB.

 

[-OZ-]

before.

After a colorful discussion about not putting Purdy at the same probability as Mahomes, he laid two eggs over the last two weeks and looked like a young QB at times on a win now team. Although it’s highly unlikely SF finds another QB, a small opportunity still exists. Is there a 3% Cousins decides to play a year at a cost friendly deal to win a ring? Sure.

I think Darnold will show that they don’t need to make a trade. If Brock sits this week.

 

[dschuler]

After a colorful discussion about not putting Purdy at the same probability as Mahomes, he laid two eggs over the last two weeks and looked like a young QB at times on a win now team. Although it’s highly unlikely SF finds another QB, a small opportunity still exists. Is there a 3% Cousins decides to play a year at a cost friendly deal to win a ring? Sure.

It seems you are suggesting here that Cousins could get traded to SF to supplant Purdy for a Super Bowl push this season. If so, it was already reported that Cousins will not waive his no trade clause and will not be traded, when there was speculation that the Jets could try to trade for him. It also wouldn't require a "cost friendly" deal, because the 49ers have a huge amount of available cap space ($43M), most in the league. I think it is very possible the 49ers will make a trade or two, just not for a QB.

Off-season. This entire thread is forward thinking for next season. Highly unlikely but if Purdy keeps struggling they could target a veteran in the off-season.

 

[dschuler]

Levis makes history in NFL debut

 

[dschuler]

Dobbs to start week 9

Good week for Arizona first round picks. Cardinals lose. The big game was Houston vs Carolina. Bears have the Panthers 1st round pick and Cardinals have the Texans 1st round pick. With the Panthers finally winning a game, it matches the Cardinals for worst record. Now Dobbs is starting again next week after Murray went off the injury report last week, what the hell is going on? Are the Cardinals back to tank mode for Caleb?

 

[spurs44]

I think contract situation has to be a pretty big consideration here. For example, the Browns guaranteed all of Watson's contract . . . even past this season they still owe him $200M and have to pay him through 2026. I would put the chances of them burning another 1st round pick on a QB as "no real chance."

If things don't work out in DAL, the Cowboys can move off of Dak and save $34M against the cap next year. I', not sure if that makes him a candidate to be one rung lower. As for the Jets, they still have Rodgers (if that puts them in another group, who knows).

I think the Jets is absolutely going to draft a qb in the 1st rd. Rodgers maybe one year left. Zack Wilson is a clipboard carry back up for one team other than the Jets.

 

[Mitchie]

I think contract situation has to be a pretty big consideration here. For example, the Browns guaranteed all of Watson's contract . . . even past this season they still owe him $200M and have to pay him through 2026. I would put the chances of them burning another 1st round pick on a QB as "no real chance."

If things don't work out in DAL, the Cowboys can move off of Dak and save $34M against the cap next year. I', not sure if that makes him a candidate to be one rung lower. As for the Jets, they still have Rodgers (if that puts them in another group, who knows).

I think the Jets is absolutely going to draft a qb in the 1st rd. Rodgers maybe one year left. Zack Wilson is a clipboard carry back up for one team other than the Jets.

i'd be surprised by this, they could do this if Rodgers told them definitively he was playing 1 more season and then retire but he's way too flaky for that to ever happen

 

[dschuler]

https://x.com/taylorlewan77/status/1719118808621715497?s=46&t=vWQC476i2umrR_orSxFhtA

Taylor Lewan says Brock Purdy won’t be starter in San Fran long term

I was skeptical to put him at a 1, probably a lot more risk than people realize

 

[Tau837]

https://x.com/taylorlewan77/status/1719118808621715497?s=46&t=vWQC476i2umrR_orSxFhtA

Taylor Lewan says Brock Purdy won’t be starter in San Fran long term

I was skeptical to put him at a 1, probably a lot more risk than people realize

Is Lewan viewed as a credible source nowadays? I'm skeptical.

 

[Runkle]

Dobbs to start week 9

Good week for Arizona first round picks. Cardinals lose. The big game was Houston vs Carolina. Bears have the Panthers 1st round pick and Cardinals have the Texans 1st round pick. With the Panthers finally winning a game, it matches the Cardinals for worst record. Now Dobbs is starting again next week after Murray went off the injury report last week, what the hell is going on? Are the Cardinals back to tank mode for Caleb?

Reversed! Dobbs to the bench. If Murray's not ready for week 9, Clayton Tune will start.

 

[dschuler]

Lots of changes this week like we expected after the trade line.

1. Jimmy Grandpa benched rest of season for Aidan O’Connell
2. Desmond Ridder benched for Taylor Heinicke
3. Brutal injury to Kirk Cousins that will last until he is a free agent and is no longer on the team. Josh Dobbs traded from Arizona to Minnesota and they have rookie Jaren Hall.
4. Will Levis had a historically great first game as starter. Titans are already 3 games out of first place in AFC South. Hard to imagine a scenario where Tannehill gets another start. If Levis loses them games they will all but be out of contention. If he wins games they stick with him as he already has a much better performance than any game Tannehill has had all season. Kinda a lose lose situation for Tannehill.
5. Packers accumulated another 3rd round pick at the trade deadline. GB now has a 1st, two 2nds, and two 3rds going into the draft and likely a top ten 1st round pick. They have built a war chest of draft picks to get a top 3 QB in the upcoming NFL draft. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where GB doesn’t draft a QB at this point.
6. Commanders trade to get a top 2nd round pick and 3rd round pick before the trade deadline. Similar to Packers acquiring draft assets plus new owner and likely going to want a new coach and QB.

 

[massraider]

Jimmy Grandpa benched rest of season for Aidan O’Connell

Who said this?

 

[dschuler]

Jimmy Grandpa benched rest of season for Aidan O’Connell

Who said this?

The NFL

Aidan starter this week and moving forward

 

[dschuler]

“With $11.25 million in injury guarantees for 2024, it makes plenty of sense for the Raiders to cut benched QB Jimmy Garoppolo, before he gets injured in the weight room or at practice.”

Is Jimmy G going to be cut midseason?

 

[dschuler]

Bo Nix’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.3%

JJ McCarthy’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.1%

For reference, these are the three highest completion percentages in a season in FBS history:

• Mac Jones (77.4%, 2020)
• Colt McCoy (76.7%, 2008)
• Joe Burrow (76.3%, 2019)

 

[N Zone]

Justin Fields is and will remain the Chicago Bears QB.
Jordan Love is and will remain the Green Bay Packers QB.
in my opinion

 

[-OZ-]

Off-season. This entire thread is forward thinking for next season. Highly unlikely but if Purdy keeps struggling they could target a veteran in the off-season.

Not sure how much they’ll want to spend on the position. But really if they wanted to and could spend the money, tannehill wouldn’t be a bad option.

Bo Nix’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.3%

JJ McCarthy’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.1%

For reference, these are the three highest completion percentages in a season in FBS history:

• Mac Jones (77.4%, 2020)
• Colt McCoy (76.7%, 2008)
• Joe Burrow (76.3%, 2019)

McCarthy hasn’t really played anyone yet.
They should able to do well against penn state but OSU and the playoffs will test him and provide opportunity to lock himself as a top 10 or top 5 pick. I don’t think he goes above Caleb or Maye but there will be at least a handful of rookie QBs as full time starters this time next year.

 

[dschuler]

Justin Fields is and will remain the Chicago Bears QB.
Jordan Love is and will remain the Green Bay Packers QB.
in my opinion

I think it’s going to be very difficult to pass on Caleb or Drake Maye, both of whom would have been the #1 pick last year ahead of Young, Stroud, and Richardson. Not only is the Bears pick looking to be a top 5, but Carolina is as well. Good odds Chicago ends up with a top 2 pick between those two. I think it’s much more likely Chicago trades Fields for a day 2 pick somewhere or cuts bait all together.

As for Jordan Love, I initially had him ranked as low for a change probability. I thought he would perform well enough to keep the Packers around wildcard contention. However, he’s consistently struggled this season, missed open targets, and has a tendency to stare down WRs. Before last week, Jordan Love had the lowest completion percentage of any passer with at least 50 attempts.
35th out of 35, completing 55% of his attempts.
He will almost definitely be on the team next due to his friendly contract, but his team friendly contract doesn’t tie the team down like the Broncos or Browns and gives the Packers flexibility. That, along with now having a good war chest of draft assets and an extremely deep QB class makes it highly likely they draft a QB in the first few rounds. Jordan Love could very well be the starter week 1 of 2024, but it’s highly likely in my opinion he will have some young competition at a minimum.

 

[dschuler]

Off-season. This entire thread is forward thinking for next season. Highly unlikely but if Purdy keeps struggling they could target a veteran in the off-season.

Not sure how much they’ll want to spend on the position. But really if they wanted to and could spend the money, tannehill wouldn’t be a bad option.

Bo Nix’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.3%

JJ McCarthy’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.1%

For reference, these are the three highest completion percentages in a season in FBS history:

• Mac Jones (77.4%, 2020)
• Colt McCoy (76.7%, 2008)
• Joe Burrow (76.3%, 2019)

McCarthy hasn’t really played anyone yet.
They should able to do well against penn state but OSU and the playoffs will test him and provide opportunity to lock himself as a top 10 or top 5 pick. I don’t think he goes above Caleb or Maye but there will be at least a handful of rookie QBs as full time starters this time next year.

I agree. Just posting some information. If McCarthy goes ahead of Caleb or Drake Maye that would be an all time draft surprise. Then again teams like the Raiders are in the NFL with first round picks so anything is possible.

 

[Tau837]

Caleb or Drake Maye, both of whom would have been the #1 pick last year ahead of Young, Stroud, and Richardson

Is this really a given for Maye? UNC has had a couple big hype QBs who entered their final college seasons viewed as locks to be among the top few QBs in the next draft... Trubisky and Howell. I don't think UNC's schedule typically provides a strong test for their QBs, which could be part of what happened with those two.

 

[Biabreakable]

Bo Nix’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.3%

JJ McCarthy’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.1%

For reference, these are the three highest completion percentages in a season in FBS history:

• Mac Jones (77.4%, 2020)
• Colt McCoy (76.7%, 2008)
• Joe Burrow (76.3%, 2019)

Interesting.

Do you have access to a larger list that is sharable?

All of those QBs are more recent. I am curious about how much this has changed over the years.

 

[dschuler]

Caleb or Drake Maye, both of whom would have been the #1 pick last year ahead of Young, Stroud, and Richardson

Is this really a given for Maye? UNC has had a couple big hype QBs who entered their final college seasons viewed as locks to be among the top few QBs in the next draft... Trubisky and Howell. I don't think UNC's schedule typically provides a strong test for their QBs, which could be part of what happened with those two.

I think so. I’m really not sure if it’s warranted or not but he’s in a different category than Trubisky or Howell. He flings the ball effortlessly. Trubisky was like a 30-35 ranked prospect that flew up just prior to the draft and only started like 13 games or something if I recall. Maye has got a better chance of going #1 than being the third QB off the board, and I expect more combine draft workout hype to have some people debate him over Caleb.

 

[dschuler]

Bo Nix’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.3%

JJ McCarthy’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.1%

For reference, these are the three highest completion percentages in a season in FBS history:

• Mac Jones (77.4%, 2020)
• Colt McCoy (76.7%, 2008)
• Joe Burrow (76.3%, 2019)

Interesting.

Do you have access to a larger list that is sharable?

All of those QBs are more recent. I am curious about how much this has changed over the years.

NCAA Career Completion %

Joe Burrow at 11. Lots of current names between 27-50. Tim Couch only QB in the top 50 that played before the 2000s. Steve Young the only QB in the top 75 that played before 1990. Completion percentage has been trending up fairly consistently for several decades.

 

[-OZ-]

Caleb or Drake Maye, both of whom would have been the #1 pick last year ahead of Young, Stroud, and Richardson

Is this really a given for Maye? UNC has had a couple big hype QBs who entered their final college seasons viewed as locks to be among the top few QBs in the next draft... Trubisky and Howell. I don't think UNC's schedule typically provides a strong test for their QBs, which could be part of what happened with those two.

Trubisky went where many are projecting Maye to be drafted.

Funny thing, could be by the same team.

 

[Tau837]

Caleb or Drake Maye, both of whom would have been the #1 pick last year ahead of Young, Stroud, and Richardson

Is this really a given for Maye? UNC has had a couple big hype QBs who entered their final college seasons viewed as locks to be among the top few QBs in the next draft... Trubisky and Howell. I don't think UNC's schedule typically provides a strong test for their QBs, which could be part of what happened with those two.

Trubisky went where many are projecting Maye to be drafted.

Funny thing, could be by the same team.

I was asking if it is a given that Maye is better than Young, Stroud, and Richardson.

 

[-OZ-]

I was asking if it is a given that Maye is better than Young, Stroud, and Richardson.

Thanks. Not a “given” but it sure seems like he’d have gone 1.02 last year after Caleb if both had been available.

 

[Biabreakable]

Bo Nix’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.3%

JJ McCarthy’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.1%

For reference, these are the three highest completion percentages in a season in FBS history:

• Mac Jones (77.4%, 2020)
• Colt McCoy (76.7%, 2008)
• Joe Burrow (76.3%, 2019)

Interesting.

Do you have access to a larger list that is sharable?

All of those QBs are more recent. I am curious about how much this has changed over the years.

NCAA Career Completion %

Joe Burrow at 11. Lots of current names between 27-50. Tim Couch only QB in the top 50 that played before the 2000s. Steve Young the only QB in the top 75 that played before 1990. Completion percentage has been trending up fairly consistently for several decades.

Thanks.

I think completion percentage is a good place to start as it's a somewhat objective measure of accuracy. Of course not all types of throws can be measured as the same in regards to this. Longer throws will be completed less often than shorter ones.

The change over time to higher overall completion % likely related to higher use of spread formations at the college and pro level combined with higher frequency of WR screens and other short passes.

For the data you linked this is career completion % which is lower than single season % that you are citing.

Bo Nix is at 65.2% career on this list right now. So pretty different than where he is at so far this season.

I think this and adjusted yards per attempt are some good metrics to look at. I wonder what stats have been found to be most predictive of NFL success?

 

[Tau837]

Bo Nix’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.3%

JJ McCarthy’s current completion percentage through 8 games:
• 78.1%

For reference, these are the three highest completion percentages in a season in FBS history:

• Mac Jones (77.4%, 2020)
• Colt McCoy (76.7%, 2008)
• Joe Burrow (76.3%, 2019)

Interesting.

Do you have access to a larger list that is sharable?

All of those QBs are more recent. I am curious about how much this has changed over the years.

NCAA Career Completion %

Joe Burrow at 11. Lots of current names between 27-50. Tim Couch only QB in the top 50 that played before the 2000s. Steve Young the only QB in the top 75 that played before 1990. Completion percentage has been trending up fairly consistently for several decades.

Thanks.

I think completion percentage is a good place to start as it's a somewhat objective measure of accuracy. Of course not all types of throws can be measured as the same in regards to this. Longer throws will be completed less often than shorter ones.

The change over time to higher overall completion % likely related to higher use of spread formations at the college and pro level combined with higher frequency of WR screens and other short passes.

For the data you linked this is career completion % which is lower than single season % that you are citing.

Bo Nix is at 65.2% career on this list right now. So pretty different than where he is at so far this season.

I think this and adjusted yards per attempt are some good metrics to look at. I wonder what stats have been found to be most predictive of NFL success?

There was a study some years back that identified completion percentage in college as one of the strongest indicators of NFL success. I don't remember the source, and I acknowledge that completion percentage has generally increased since then, so it may no longer hold.

 

[dschuler]

QB news for this week:

As expected since week 1, Ryan Tannehill officially benched. It was only a matter of time this season.

Giants have continued to lose and now have a bad QB to possibly finish the year. They currently have the #4 pick, and the Cardinals and Panthers (Bears) picks above them are certainly going to try and win some games. It’s very likely now the Giants end up with the #1 or #2 pick in which it would be a lock for them to take Caleb or Maye.


Thought this was interesting:

ODDs Pro Bowl QB Kyle Murray’s team if not #Cardinals 2024 Week 1:

1) #PATRIOTS, 5/1
2) #Titans , 11/2 WTF??
3) #Giants, 6/1
4) #Falcons, 7/1
5) #Commanders, 9/1
6) #Steelers, 9/1

(Via @betonline_ag)


Also this:

The NFL sent a memo to all 32 teams today, informing them that all college juniors who declare for the Draft now will be eligible to play in the Shrine Bowl, Senior Bowl or HBCU Legacy Bowl, per sources.

Last year, 69 juniors entered the draft but couldn’t play in an all-star game. This year they can.

 

[-OZ-]

ODDs Pro Bowl QB Kyle Murray’s team if not #Cardinals 2024 Week 1:

1) #PATRIOTS, 5/1
2) #Titans , 11/2 WTF??
3) #Giants, 6/1
4) #Falcons, 7/1
5) #Commanders, 9/1
6) #Steelers, 9/1

2 and 5 won’t happen. Can the giants afford him? I don’t see Pittsburgh giving up on Picket quite yet. Atlanta and NE make the most sense.