DSchuler’s QB Change Probability: 4 new starters, more on the way? Packers accumulate draft assets, Cardinals back in play for #1 pick (1 Viewer)

[dschuler]

Team QB change probability (No particular order)

Top 2024 QB Draft Prospects:
Caleb Williams - USC
Drake Maye - UNC
Quinn Ewers - Texas
Shedeur Sanders - Colorado
Jordan Travis - FSU
KJ Jefferson - Arkansas
Michael Penix Jr. - Washington
Riley Leonard - Duke
JJ McCarthy - Michigan
Bo Nix - Oregon
Jayden Daniels - LSU
Spencer Rattler - South Carolina
Joe Milton - Tennessee
Tyler Van Dyke - Miami
More prospects will be added soon

For those that do not watch college football, the current NFL QB class for the draft next season could be deeper than any other season and by a long shot. As of now, there is a potential for 8-9 QBs to get selected in the first round. There is even more talent than that, and several other players grade out very highly and will get drafted on day 2 or later due to the depth of the QB class. Although 8-9 QBs is highly unlikely in the first round, it shows you how much talent is about to come into the NFL. To give you an idea of just how deep this class is, CBS just did a mock draft this week and had 6 QBs going in the first round. Of the six, they did not include the former #1 recruit in the nation that’s ranked #3 overall on NFLDraftBuzz in Quinn Ewers. Last year’s draft class had 10 QBs ranked 80 or higher, 18 QBs rank higher than 80 for the incoming class so far with a whole season to improve and six rank as high as #4 overall pick Anthony Richardson. This is so unique that it will absolutely have a waterfall effect and I think you could easily see more than 1/3 of NFL teams that will make a move to potentially have a different starting QB from their current one by either drafting a QB, signing a free agent, making a trade as QBs switch places or putting in a new QB they’ve already drafted this past season. For some NFL organizations, they’ve likely anticipated this draft class and have already made preparations for it (unloading other QBs, avoiding high QB salaries, draft pick stocking, etc).

I’ve made 8 different categories to put each NFL team with a chance that would associate them with a QB change. Some may surprise you, others not so much. To define a QB change, it will be having a different starter than the current one or drafting a QB in one of the first three rounds next season in anticipation of a change. These projections will continue to change in real time as teams win and lose games, players declare for the draft, and circumstances play out. I will continue to update this list periodically.

0 - No real chance (<2%)
1 - 3-7% probability
2 - 8-24% probability
3 - 25-40% probability
4 - 41-55% probability
5 - 56-75% probability
6 - >76% probability
7 - QB has changed



*Number in parentheses is where they started week 1.*
Group 0 - No substantial chance
Kansas City Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes 0
Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence 0
Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow 0
Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Hurts 0
Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen 0
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert 0
Houston Texans - CJ Stroud (1)
Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Richardson (1)
Carolina Panthers - Bryce Young (1)
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson (1)

Group 1 - Highly Unlikely
Cleveland Browns - DeShaun Watson (2)
Detroit Lions - Jared Goff (2)
Dallas Cowboys - Dak Prescott (2)

Group 2 - Low
Miami Dolphins - Tua (3)
San Francisco 49ers - Brock Purdy (4)

Group 3
Pittsburgh Steelers - Kenny Pickett (3)

Group 4 - Coin Flip
New Orleans Saints - Derek Carr (4)
Arizona Cardinals - Kyler Murray (6)
Washington Commanders - Sam Howell (6)
Denver Broncos - Russell Wilson (4)
Seattle Seahawks - Geno Smith (4)

Group 5 - Some Heat on the seat
Los Angeles Rams - Matt Stafford (5)
New England Patriots - Mac Jones (4)
Chicago Bears - Justin Fields (5)

Group 6 - Highly Likely
New York Giants - Daniel Jones (3)
New York Jets - Zach Wilson (6)
Tampa Bay Bucs - Baker Mayfield (6)
Green Bay Packers - Jordan Love (2)

Group 7 - Team has made QB change or drafted QB replacement
1. Atlanta Falcons - Taylor Heinicke over Desmond Ridder (5)
2. Las Vegas Raiders - Aidan O’Connell over Jimmy G (6)
3. Minnesota Vikings - Josh Dobbs over Kirk Cousins (5) (Injury into free agency)
4. Tennessee Titans - Will Levis over Ryan Tannehill (6) Not official but I’ll call it now

 

[Anarchy99]

I think contract situation has to be a pretty big consideration here. For example, the Browns guaranteed all of Watson's contract . . . even past this season they still owe him $200M and have to pay him through 2026. I would put the chances of them burning another 1st round pick on a QB as "no real chance."

If things don't work out in DAL, the Cowboys can move off of Dak and save $34M against the cap next year. I', not sure if that makes him a candidate to be one rung lower. As for the Jets, they still have Rodgers (if that puts them in another group, who knows).

 

[dschuler]

I think contract situation has to be a pretty big consideration here. For example, the Browns guaranteed all of Watson's contract . . . even past this season they still owe him $200M and have to pay him through 2026. I would put the chances of them burning another 1st round pick on a QB as "no real chance."

If things don't work out in DAL, the Cowboys can move off of Dak and save $34M against the cap next year. I', not sure if that makes him a candidate to be one rung lower. As for the Jets, they still have Rodgers (if that puts them in another group, who knows).

Contracts have a huge implication. For Watson, I ranked him low (11-25%). Keep in mind that the Browns already drafted a QB this past season in Dorian Thompson-Robinson that played great in preseason. For this reason, I slightly elevated him. I think there isn’t a real chance they are going to be drafting a QB this upcoming season though.

For Dak, the Cowboys grabbed Trey Lance in the offseason. They haven’t renegotiated Dak’s deal yet and a major injury or another late season struggle could trigger a move of some kind, although still pretty unlikely.

​

 

[Long Ball Larry]

What makes you think that Howell is highly likely? Seems like they like him enough to at least make him a coin flip. I'm sure they would be interested in upgrading, but feels like he could also show them enough to make them stick with him another year.

edit: good thread idea.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Good topic and good overall groupings although I will disagree with Sam Howell in group 6. Brock Purdy can move up a tier as well imo.

 

[dschuler]

Good topic and good overall groupings although I will disagree with Sam Howell in group 6. Brock Purdy can move up a tier as well imo.

I don’t disagree about Purdy. Brock Purdy and Russell Wilson were the two hardest for me to rank.

 

[dschuler]

What makes you think that Howell is highly likely? Seems like they like him enough to at least make him a coin flip. I'm sure they would be interested in upgrading, but feels like he could also show them enough to make them stick with him another year.

edit: good thread idea.

I think Howell is highly likely because I think it’s highly likely the Commanders select a QB early in the draft next year. The NFC East is tough and chances are they finish third or fourth in the division. They have a new owner, likely to have a new head coach and may want a fresh start. Sam Howell doesn’t really cost them anything from a cap perspective which increases this chance as well. The talent pool from college at QB will allow them to take a first round talent regardless of their draft pick. All in all there are a lot of factors outside of Sam’s play that don’t bode well for him. If Sam keeps playing well and they team continues to win this will lower my probability ranking.

 

[Da Franchise]

I will take the under on all of this. By a lot.

 

[dschuler]

I will take the under on all of this. By a lot.

Do you realize there are 11 permanent different starting QBs this year from start of last year?

Jets - Aaron Rodgers
Colts - A Richardson
Texans - CJ Stroud
Bucs - Baker
Commanders - Sam Howell
Packers - Jordan Love
Falcons - Desmond Ridder
Panthers - Bryce Young
Steelers - Kenny Pickett
Saints - Carr
Raiders - Jimmy G

 

[Da Franchise]

I will take the under on all of this. By a lot.

Do you realize there are 11 permanent different starting QBs this year from start of last year?

Jets - Aaron Rodgers
Colts - A Richardson
Texans - CJ Stroud
Bucs - Baker
Commanders - Sam Howell
Packers - Jordan Love
Falcons - Desmond Ridder
Panthers - Bryce Young
Steelers - Kenny Pickett
Saints - Carr
Raiders - Jimmy G

Yes, I’m aware of the turnover of the position. No, I don’t see this many QBs going near high enough in the draft for teams to enter the season with them in mind as the starter. Seems extremely dubious to me.

 

[Jacob's Ladder]

Tua?

 

[dschuler]

Tua?

Tua has some things working against him which is why he’s a 3 (26-45%) probably. A lot of it is his injury risk. He has the highest score on an injury risk rating. He also has a high risk score for his salary. His last contract year would be next year with his 5th year option and wouldn’t cost money for the Dolphins to let him walk. I also slightly factored in that I’m not sold on ownership liking Tua, I feel like they’ve never really believed in him long term (Brady rumors). His probability will slowly drop every healthy week he plays into the season.

 

[dschuler]

Making my first move of the year, and changing Fields from hot seat to very likely. The Bears will have great draft capital this year and Fields isn’t under a big contract. Watched the Week 2 game this morning, and it was disappointing. Several options were consistently open and he was too hesitant to pull the trigger. Ran or moved into the pressure on several occasions in the pocket. He has everyone open on this play with a great pocket and plenty of time to throw. He doesn’t throw to anyone, steps up into the line, and runs directly into the DL. To me this is worse than the butt fumble. Fields greatest achievement might be getting the Bears Caleb Williams or Drake Maye.

Fields misses everyone open

 

[Snotbubbles]

I don't know who will go where, but I know, 8 QBs aren't going in round 1.

 

[dschuler]

I don't know who will go where, but I know, 8 QBs aren't going in round 1.

That’s true. But there are about 8-9 and maybe more QBs who “could” go in the first round. Expect lots of QB turbulence for teams that disappoint after this season.

Example, last season Will Levis could have gone in the first round as many people thought he might. Instead he went in the second round. There are 11 QBs this year rated as high as Levis and many more just under that.

 

[Fat Nick]

What makes you think that Howell is highly likely? Seems like they like him enough to at least make him a coin flip. I'm sure they would be interested in upgrading, but feels like he could also show them enough to make them stick with him another year.

edit: good thread idea.

I think Howell is highly likely because I think it’s highly likely the Commanders select a QB early in the draft next year. The NFC East is tough and chances are they finish third or fourth in the division. They have a new owner, likely to have a new head coach and may want a fresh start. Sam Howell doesn’t really cost them anything from a cap perspective which increases this chance as well. The talent pool from college at QB will allow them to take a first round talent regardless of their draft pick. All in all there are a lot of factors outside of Sam’s play that don’t bode well for him. If Sam keeps playing well and they team continues to win this will lower my probability ranking.

Howell is good enough (or at least has played well enough thus far) that I think the Commanders at least won't REACH for a QB in next year's draft. Would they take Williams? For sure. But Howell - in my eyes as a Commanders fan - is the most poised QB we've had since Alex Smith - and he's about to start his 4th game. I don't get the sense that Josh Harris and Co are the "change for the sake of change" type of crew. He's at least on-par with Desmond Ridder - and I think a case could be made for Group 4 - coin flip. I totally get your opinion and ranking - and really cool idea. Just my $0.02 on Mr. Howell.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Group 5 - Some Heat on the seat
Minnesota Vikings - Kirk Cousins
Los Angeles Rams - Matt Stafford

Kirk? He's over 700 yds with 6 TDs and only 1 INT. The team's struggles are not his fault.
Stafford looks much better than last year. One or two bad turnovers but they blasted the Hawks and were competitive with the 9ers.

Not sure I'm seeing the heat here and/or I don't understand what you're saying with these tiers.

 

[dschuler]

Group 5 - Some Heat on the seat
Minnesota Vikings - Kirk Cousins
Los Angeles Rams - Matt Stafford

Kirk? He's over 700 yds with 6 TDs and only 1 INT. The team's struggles are not his fault.
Stafford looks much better than last year. One or two bad turnovers but they blasted the Hawks and were competitive with the 9ers.

Not sure I'm seeing the heat here and/or I don't understand what you're saying with these tiers.

Kirk has nothing to do with his play. He’s played great. Kirk has a lot of things working against him.
He’s in the last year of his contract, very easy to move on.
He’s 35 on a team with a terrible defense and going into a rebuild.
Team was unwilling to resign him long term for multiple years.
The Vikings are already 0-2, and will have a draft pick to support drafting an elite rookie QB.
They already drafted a QB last year in Jaren Hall.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kirk sign a one year deal or play somewhere else for a team a QB away.

Vikings Owner


For Stafford, he’s got a long injury history. He will be 36 at the end of the year.
The Rams can get rid of a lot of his cap money after the 2024 season if they chose to.
Already had retirement rumors (were some generated from the team)
First year in forever Rams get a first round pick.
Rams drafted a QB last year.
Rams are in a rebuild.
If the Rams get out of the running this year, I would be surprised to not shut it down. No way they pass up on Penix Jr or Shadeur Sanders (assuming Williams and Maye are gone) and Ewers has a play type similar to Stafford.

 

[dschuler]

What makes you think that Howell is highly likely? Seems like they like him enough to at least make him a coin flip. I'm sure they would be interested in upgrading, but feels like he could also show them enough to make them stick with him another year.

edit: good thread idea.

I think Howell is highly likely because I think it’s highly likely the Commanders select a QB early in the draft next year. The NFC East is tough and chances are they finish third or fourth in the division. They have a new owner, likely to have a new head coach and may want a fresh start. Sam Howell doesn’t really cost them anything from a cap perspective which increases this chance as well. The talent pool from college at QB will allow them to take a first round talent regardless of their draft pick. All in all there are a lot of factors outside of Sam’s play that don’t bode well for him. If Sam keeps playing well and they team continues to win this will lower my probability ranking.

Howell is good enough (or at least has played well enough thus far) that I think the Commanders at least won't REACH for a QB in next year's draft. Would they take Williams? For sure. But Howell - in my eyes as a Commanders fan - is the most poised QB we've had since Alex Smith - and he's about to start his 4th game. I don't get the sense that Josh Harris and Co are the "change for the sake of change" type of crew. He's at least on-par with Desmond Ridder - and I think a case could be made for Group 4 - coin flip. I totally get your opinion and ranking - and really cool idea. Just my $0.02 on Mr. Howell.

I appreciate your perspective and you bring up great points. Part of my original ranking and grading for Howell was that the Commanders would start the season out poorly, which they have not. If they keep winning games this will lower his score, although keep in mind some of the things working against him will remain. I’ve actually lowered him a grade for their record, but the season is early.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Group 5 - Some Heat on the seat
Minnesota Vikings - Kirk Cousins
Los Angeles Rams - Matt Stafford

Kirk? He's over 700 yds with 6 TDs and only 1 INT. The team's struggles are not his fault.
Stafford looks much better than last year. One or two bad turnovers but they blasted the Hawks and were competitive with the 9ers.

Not sure I'm seeing the heat here and/or I don't understand what you're saying with these tiers.

Kirk has nothing to do with his play. He’s played great. Kirk has a lot of things working against him.
He’s in the last year of his contract, very easy to move on.
He’s 35 on a team with a terrible defense and going into a rebuild.
Team was unwilling to resign him long term for multiple years.
The Vikings are already 0-2, and will have a draft pick to support drafting an elite rookie QB.
They already drafted a QB last year in Jaren Hall.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kirk sign a one year deal or play somewhere else for a team a QB away.

Vikings Owner


For Stafford, he’s got a long injury history. He will be 36 at the end of the year.
The Rams can get rid of a lot of his cap money after the 2024 season if they chose to.
Already had retirement rumors (were some generated from the team)
First year in forever Rams get a first round pick.
Rams drafted a QB last year.
Rams are in a rebuild.
If the Rams get out of the running this year, I would be surprised to not shut it down. No way they pass up on Penix Jr or Shadeur Sanders (assuming Williams and Maye are gone) and Ewers has a play type similar to Stafford.

Ah I see it's more of "will they finish the season as the team's QB". Thank you for clarifying. I was reading "replacement" as replaced due to play. Still not sure Kirk is in as hot a seat.

 

[dschuler]

Group 5 - Some Heat on the seat
Minnesota Vikings - Kirk Cousins
Los Angeles Rams - Matt Stafford

Kirk? He's over 700 yds with 6 TDs and only 1 INT. The team's struggles are not his fault.
Stafford looks much better than last year. One or two bad turnovers but they blasted the Hawks and were competitive with the 9ers.

Not sure I'm seeing the heat here and/or I don't understand what you're saying with these tiers.

Kirk has nothing to do with his play. He’s played great. Kirk has a lot of things working against him.
He’s in the last year of his contract, very easy to move on.
He’s 35 on a team with a terrible defense and going into a rebuild.
Team was unwilling to resign him long term for multiple years.
The Vikings are already 0-2, and will have a draft pick to support drafting an elite rookie QB.
They already drafted a QB last year in Jaren Hall.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kirk sign a one year deal or play somewhere else for a team a QB away.

Vikings Owner


For Stafford, he’s got a long injury history. He will be 36 at the end of the year.
The Rams can get rid of a lot of his cap money after the 2024 season if they chose to.
Already had retirement rumors (were some generated from the team)
First year in forever Rams get a first round pick.
Rams drafted a QB last year.
Rams are in a rebuild.
If the Rams get out of the running this year, I would be surprised to not shut it down. No way they pass up on Penix Jr or Shadeur Sanders (assuming Williams and Maye are gone) and Ewers has a play type similar to Stafford.

Ah I see it's more of "will they finish the season as the team's QB". Thank you for clarifying. I was reading "replacement" as replaced due to play. Still not sure Kirk is in as hot a seat.

Yeah up to the start of next season but I’m going to track this season. It’s kinda prelude to the 2024 NFL draft because the QB class is so deep. If there was ever a time to sell high on mediocre dynasty Superflex QBs, this might be the year.

 

[pinkstapler]

Nice post, lotta effort going in and def an intriguing topic. I'm with a few of the others I feel like if we are talking about an actual change at the starting QB position, the numbers feel a bit high to me. However, if we just lowered relative expectations to teams that still may draft a QB in the first round, just not immediately make them the incumbent starter, it starts to feel more on point IMO. Some may win out through camp battles against the weaker incumbent, while a good number may just be a backup with hopes of growth into an eventual starter. It certainly feels like an exciting year for SF is building. Especially start-ups.

 

[dschuler]

Nice post, lotta effort going in and def an intriguing topic. I'm with a few of the others I feel like if we are talking about an actual change at the starting QB position, the numbers feel a bit high to me. However, if we just lowered relative expectations to teams that still may draft a QB in the first round, just not immediately make them the incumbent starter, it starts to feel more on point IMO. Some may win out through camp battles against the weaker incumbent, while a good number may just be a backup with hopes of growth into an eventual starter. It certainly feels like an exciting year for SF is building. Especially start-ups.

Yeah my probability is a QB change before week 1 of next year or that the team spends high draft capital (1st or 2nd) on a QB in the draft. Last year we have 11 teams change their starter YoY, I think we hit that number again before next year at a minimum. Even QBs that have a job now could start somewhere else if the team drafts a QB (Kyler Murray is the biggest one)

 

[Gatorman]

Tua?

Tua has some things working against him which is why he’s a 3 (26-45%) probably. A lot of it is his injury risk. He has the highest score on an injury risk rating. He also has a high risk score for his salary. His last contract year would be next year with his 5th year option and wouldn’t cost money for the Dolphins to let him walk. I also slightly factored in that I’m not sold on ownership liking Tua, I feel like they’ve never really believed in him long term (Brady rumors). His probability will slowly drop every healthy week he plays into the season.

About Tua: (and Sklar Thompson) If any injury happens to Tua, it likely means the dolphins go QB shopping. In my mind the logical choice with this roster is a guy like Cousins (Shanahans original QB choice) and then perhaps they draft a guy if the draft is as deep as you say. If Tua stays healthy, then Miami will likely extend him to a "cap friendly" deal with some insurances in place in case injuries strike again. If they go that route, then it depends on how McDaniel and complany feel about the rest of the QB room. Dolphins 2024 picks are 1, 2, then 5, 6, and 7 so ideally Miami would like to win the super bowl with Tua and then trade the 32nd pick for a team that wants whichever QB is left at the end to get some more picks as needs at a lot of positions will become evident as the cap needs to be navigated for Tua and Wilkins.

If they make a run in the playoffs but do not win it all (with Tua) then they likely take the value that falls to them as cetrain positions (LB, DE, Safety and O Line) need some "cheap" depth through the draft.

 

[dschuler]

Tua?

Tua has some things working against him which is why he’s a 3 (26-45%) probably. A lot of it is his injury risk. He has the highest score on an injury risk rating. He also has a high risk score for his salary. His last contract year would be next year with his 5th year option and wouldn’t cost money for the Dolphins to let him walk. I also slightly factored in that I’m not sold on ownership liking Tua, I feel like they’ve never really believed in him long term (Brady rumors). His probability will slowly drop every healthy week he plays into the season.

About Tua: (and Sklar Thompson) If any injury happens to Tua, it likely means the dolphins go QB shopping. In my mind the logical choice with this roster is a guy like Cousins (Shanahans original QB choice) and then perhaps they draft a guy if the draft is as deep as you say. If Tua stays healthy, then Miami will likely extend him to a "cap friendly" deal with some insurances in place in case injuries strike again. If they go that route, then it depends on how McDaniel and complany feel about the rest of the QB room. Dolphins 2024 picks are 1, 2, then 5, 6, and 7 so ideally Miami would like to win the super bowl with Tua and then trade the 32nd pick for a team that wants whichever QB is left at the end to get some more picks as needs at a lot of positions will become evident as the cap needs to be navigated for Tua and Wilkins.

If they make a run in the playoffs but do not win it all (with Tua) then they likely take the value that falls to them as cetrain positions (LB, DE, Safety and O Line) need some "cheap" depth through the draft.

Thanks for your response. I share your view but you were more detailed and elaborate. The Miami Tua situation is very tough. On one hand, they could win the Super Bowl with him. On another, he’s a little undersized and one hit away from maybe being done. There is a reason he hasn’t signed a long term deal.
As an owner or GM, is it even responsible to sign a player blindly to a long term deal? Absolutely not, and you’re right, I think something would have to be in his contract to keep him around long term. Not sure if they would roll the dice with Cousins or Kyler Murray, but I think the odds of them being available next year are high if Tua is hurt again. The fact that they are in win now mode with Tyreek would lean me to believe a veteran QB would be more likely.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Unless there's some catastrophe (life-altering injury or massive scandal), there is a 0% chance Lamar Jackson isn't Baltimore's QB next year.

 

[dschuler]

Unless there's some catastrophe (life-altering injury or massive scandal), there is a 0% chance Lamar Jackson isn't Baltimore's QB next year.

Lamar is calculated as grade 1 (Low 3-10%). He recently signed a large contract and would be very difficult to move off of. It would take a massive injury or scandal combined with poor QB play. He’s had fairly consistent injuries, and I’ve calculated some risk of a scandal due to his questionable sitting out or “faking injury”. Credible people like Sean Payton were publicly stating this, so I slightly added that as a factor. From a play standpoint, he’s won an MVP. He’s also never average a super low bar of 200 yards passing per game averaged over a 16/17 game season. This season should tell us a lot more about his play for coming years.

Overall, very unlikely.

 

[dschuler]

For everyone asking why I ranked Cousins with such a high change probability, there were too many factors with his age, contract, team rebuild, etc. I never liked the team or defense prior to the season, and expect the losing to continue. It seems like more people are starting to agree.

Gronk Predicts Vikings Trade Cousins and tank

 

[Buckna]

I think contract situation has to be a pretty big consideration here. For example, the Browns guaranteed all of Watson's contract . . . even past this season they still owe him $200M and have to pay him through 2026. I would put the chances of them burning another 1st round pick on a QB as "no real chance."

If things don't work out in DAL, the Cowboys can move off of Dak and save $34M against the cap next year. I', not sure if that makes him a candidate to be one rung lower. As for the Jets, they still have Rodgers (if that puts them in another group, who knows).

Contracts have a huge implication. For Watson, I ranked him low (11-25%). Keep in mind that the Browns already drafted a QB this past season in Dorian Thompson-Robinson that played great in preseason. For this reason, I slightly elevated him. I think there isn’t a real chance they are going to be drafting a QB this upcoming season though.

For Dak, the Cowboys grabbed Trey Lance in the offseason. They haven’t renegotiated Dak’s deal yet and a major injury or another late season struggle could trigger a move of some kind, although still pretty unlikely.

​

Totally missed here is that Cleveland does not have a 1st round pick in 2024, they traded it to the Texans for Watson.

 

[dschuler]

I think contract situation has to be a pretty big consideration here. For example, the Browns guaranteed all of Watson's contract . . . even past this season they still owe him $200M and have to pay him through 2026. I would put the chances of them burning another 1st round pick on a QB as "no real chance."

If things don't work out in DAL, the Cowboys can move off of Dak and save $34M against the cap next year. I', not sure if that makes him a candidate to be one rung lower. As for the Jets, they still have Rodgers (if that puts them in another group, who knows).

Contracts have a huge implication. For Watson, I ranked him low (11-25%). Keep in mind that the Browns already drafted a QB this past season in Dorian Thompson-Robinson that played great in preseason. For this reason, I slightly elevated him. I think there isn’t a real chance they are going to be drafting a QB this upcoming season though.

For Dak, the Cowboys grabbed Trey Lance in the offseason. They haven’t renegotiated Dak’s deal yet and a major injury or another late season struggle could trigger a move of some kind, although still pretty unlikely.

​

Totally missed here is that Cleveland does not have a 1st round pick in 2024, they traded it to the Texans for Watson.

Not really missed but is another data point. Cleveland already drafted a QB last year with glowing reviews.

 

[Bri]

What about something like "future QB already on roster"

 

[dschuler]

What about something like "future QB already on roster"

For Cleveland, it’s tough for Dorian Thompkins-Robinson to be the future Browns QB. The Browns have to pay Watson a ransom through 2026. That will be the first four years of DTR contract and he can then be a free agent and go elsewhere. Maybe they give him to chance in the next year or two if Watson really struggles, but for the next year Watson’s job is pretty secure.

 

[need2know]

Sanders has looked really good but can we wait a few games before making him a high first round pick? He hasn't exactly played the toughest competition. I need to see more.

 

[dschuler]

Sanders has looked really good but can we wait a few games before making him a high first round pick? He hasn't exactly played the toughest competition. I need to see more.

I’m with you but I’m just the messenger. For Sanders and Colorado, they are coming into PAC 12 play starting this week and will play much tougher opponents. We will get a better sense of things in the coming weeks.

 

[dschuler]

Kenny Pickett watch: Only one #NFL team sent scouts to todays game between Colorado and Oregon…the #Steelers, per @MattPrehm

 

[IHEARTFF]

Hopefully scouting OL and OCs

 

[dschuler]

The potential 2024 QB draft class absolutely put up NUMBERS yet again in week four.

Caleb Williams (USC): 20/31 (65%), 322 yards, 5 total TD’s, 69.7 QBR

Drake Maye (UNC): 22/30 (73%), 296 yards, 3 total TD’s, 94.2 QBR

Shedeur Sanders (Colorado): 23/33 (70%), 159 yards, 1 total TD, 28.2 QBR

Michael Penix Jr. (UW): 19/25 (76%), 304 yards, 4 total TD’s, 92.9 QBR

Quinn Ewers (Texas): 18/23 (78%), 293 yards, 2 total TD’s, 96.2 QBR

JJ McCarthy (Michigan): 15/21 (71%), 214 yards, 51 rushing yards, 1 TD, 96.8 QBR

Bo Nix (Oregon): 28/33 (85%), 276 yards, 4 total TD’s, 1 INT, 75.7 QBR

Riley Leonard (Duke): 23/34 (68%), 248 yards, 2 total TD’s, 52.5 QBR

Spencer Rattler (SC): 18/20 (90%), 288 yards, 43 rushing yards, 3 total TD’s, 96.7 QBR

Joe Milton (Tennessee): 18/31 (58%), 209 yards, 89 rushing yards, 3 total TD’s, 86.0 QBR

Jordan Travis (FSU): 21/37 (57%), 289 yards, 3 total TD’s, 87.2 QBR

Jayden Daniels (LSU): 20/29 (69%), 320 yards, 4 total TD’s, 1 INT, 85.4 QBR

Carson Beck (Georgia): 22/32 (69%), 338 yards, 4 total TD’s, 83.9 QBR

Cameron Ward (WSU): 28/34 (82%), 404 yards, 5 total TD’s, 93.0 QBR

Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma): 26/38 (68%), 322 yards, 2 total TD’s, 70.3 QBR

 

[IHEARTFF]

He’s not quite a high end prospect, but Jalon Daniels at KU is another interesting dual threat qb. At Texas next week so we’ll see a tough matchup.

 

[dschuler]

I’d be surprised to see Tannehill make it past the Titans bye week in October. 13/25 passing for an hundo and he looks like a statue back there. Titans fans online calling for Malik Willis in the second quarter. Malik might be worth a WW pickup in a deep dynasty league.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Justin Fields looks like he cooked in Chicago.

 

[dschuler]

Pro Football Network latest mock draft:
1. Caleb Williams - Arizona
3. Drake Maye - Chicago
6. JJ McCarthy - Las Vegas
11. Shedeur Sanders - Tampa Bay
12. Quinn Ewers - Minnesota
13. Bo Nix - Denver
47. Jordan Travis - New England
48. Michael Penix Jr. - Pittsburgh
52. Spencer Rattler - Atlanta

PFN 2 Round mock draft

 

[Snotbubbles]

Pro Football Network latest mock draft:
1. Caleb Williams - Arizona
3. Drake Maye - Chicago
6. JJ McCarthy - Las Vegas
11. Shedeur Sanders - Tampa Bay
12. Quinn Ewers - Minnesota
13. Bo Nix - Denver
47. Jordan Travis - New England
48. Michael Penix Jr. - Pittsburgh
52. Spencer Rattler - Atlanta

PFN 2 Round mock draft

Drafttek latest 7 round mock draft:

1. Caleb Williams - Arizona
8. Drake Maye - Las Vegas
12. Quinn Ewers - Tampa Bay
48. Shedeur Sanders - Washington
55. Michael Penix Jr. - Seattle
99. Bo Nix - Chicago
111. Jordan Travis - Chargers
157. JJ McCarthy - Miami
168. Jayden Daniels - New England
181. KJ Jefferson - Atlanta
212. Tyler Van Dyke - Denver

 

[dschuler]

Bad weekend for some questionable QBs. Both of the Jones with terrible performances. Daniel Jones would easily be in the highest tier if not for his contract he signed but his performance is so bad I think there is a chance the Giants draft or look for another cheap QB next year.

Love has struggled and his completion percentage is low. Very easy financially for the Packers to move him. Same for Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett.

All the rookies were basically completely safe for year 2 already but their early play has sealed it for them next year especially with Carolina not having their first round pick.

One kinda interesting thing in the probability calculator is the play of the Texans and Cardinals. Murray had the highest probability category before the year but that also took into account the Cardinals having the number 1 or 2 overall pick. In a way, Dobbs and Stroud good QB play has slightly lowered the chances of Murray getting replaced due to a potentially worse draft pick than originally estimated. I still have him in the highest category but certainly something to watch.

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice topic and thanks for all the legwork here and updates. I look forward to following this.

I have heard some of these rumblings about the 2024 QB class being great but not with this level of detail.

Its great that the QB is so deep, that being said some of these QB will not come out in 2024 because of that as well. I would love to see that taken into consideration along with the QB prospect rankings, which are more likely to not declare than others?

As far as Cousins and the Vikings I also think this may be his last season in Minnesota and I think the coach and GM need to draft a QB to replace him. Its going to be a big deal as their jobs will likely be tied to how well they do with the new QB and developing whoever this ends up being.

I do see a possibility of another 1 year contract offered to Cousins by the Vikings, but Cousins may not accept that. He wants a long term contract and does not want to be looking over his shoulder at a replacement. For these reasons I dont see a deal getting done and it actualy may be in the GMs best interest to trade Cousins now while they could get something for him, as they surely know this lies ahead.

For now the coach has made nice with the team getting a win finally and trying to keep the team motivated, but I think it would be a mistake for them to stay the course here when changes seem very likely next season.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Mac Jones
Daniel Jones
Kenny Jones
Lamar Jones
Bryce Jones

 

[-OZ-]

Mac Jones
Daniel Jones
Kenny Jones
Lamar Jones
Bryce Jones

The league needs to keep up

 

[Tau837]

I just ran across this thread. Great topic and discussion here.

I know you haven't done an update for week 5 yet, but some views on several QBs in your list. IMO:

• Jackson belongs in Group 0 - contract and timing (just signed)
• Watson belongs in Group 0 - contract
• Purdy belongs in Group 0 - if you are going to put the 3 rookies in that group after 4 games, you have to put the guy who is 12-1 as a starter and currently leading the NFL in passer rating in there
• Goff belongs in Group 1 - Lions should be undefeated right now; expect them to use their high 2024 draft capital on defense
• Mac Jones belongs in Group 6 - he got benched yesterday

 

[Ministry of Pain]

same thing, don't want to lose track of this thread, excellent discussion and thanks for doing some heavy lifting

 

[dschuler]

I just ran across this thread. Great topic and discussion here.

I know you haven't done an update for week 5 yet, but some views on several QBs in your list. IMO:

• Jackson belongs in Group 0 - contract and timing (just signed)
• Watson belongs in Group 0 - contract
• Purdy belongs in Group 0 - if you are going to put the 3 rookies in that group after 4 games, you have to put the guy who is 12-1 as a starter and currently leading the NFL in passer rating in there
• Goff belongs in Group 1 - Lions should be undefeated right now; expect them to use their high 2024 draft capital on defense
• Mac Jones belongs in Group 6 - he got benched yesterday

Jackson can’t go to group zero based on the way I have him graded in a couple categories. I’ve talked about it a little in this thread and would really like to waste no more brain power on it, but the difference between a low 1 (about 3-4%) and a 0 (<2%) is really just semantics.

For Watson, we are just a couple weeks removed from a few people calling for his rookie backup to get some action after a couple bad outings early in the year but what a difference a few weeks makes. His contract was the only reason he wasn’t much higher. His backup playing terribly along with a good performance from Watson the week before obviously put those worries to bed. His history of personnel conduct and the wording in his contract could result in him getting benched or cut if he has another “incident”, which there is a non zero chance of. Russell Wilson has a comparably bad contract and many expect him to get replaced next year. Watson will probably stay in the 1 category from here on out.

It would be tough for Purdy to go to a 0 based on his rookie contract and draft capital in the way I determine a probability in my calculator but I expect him to go to a solid 1 if he keeps playing well. He’s just too easily expendable and we are still only 5 weeks in but he looks amazing.

For Goff, he should continue to be safer each week as the Lions are rolling. Keep in mind Detroit drafted one of the highest QBs in the draft last year early in the third round (Hooker), who would have been drafted even higher if not for an injury. One of the things I look at with Goff is the Sportsbook Lions playoff odds futures. If the Lions miss the playoffs, good chance Goff would get replaced. They were at about 80-90% depending on the Sportsbook, which would put him in the 1-2 category but still far from a zero percent chance.

Mac Jones started the year at a coin flip and will move to group 6 after I input all the new rankings.

 

[-OZ-]

It would be tough for Purdy to go to a 0 based on his rookie contract and draft capital in the way I determine a probability in my calculator but I expect him to go to a solid 1 if he keeps playing well. He’s just too easily expendable and we are still only 5 weeks in but he looks amazing

Great stuff across the board. But this take is off IMO. Maybe your method can be improved? (Not an insult by any stretch, this is good stuff and the discussion is appreciated)
The guy has never lost a game he finished. He’s playing extremely well, his coach and teammates seem to really like the guy. Yes he’s cheap, but that cost allows the owner to pay the rest of the team. There’s no reason to replace him and he’s definitely earned the right to start for the foreseeable future. It will be hard for him to get MVP votes but he’s playing much closer to MVP caliber than any threat of losing his job. Barring catastrophic injury he’s not being replaced.