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Just checked over there. Here's his post from last year: http://www.kffl.com/forums/showthread.php?t=200611He said that he hopes to have his numbers run for this year by the end of February, about a month before the actual comp picks come out.
I think it must involve losing a player to another team.I don't expect the Pats get one for Marquise Hill nor will the Broncos for NashBTW The morbidity of NFL talk this year is mind numbing isn't it?
If I were a betting man, it would say it the top teams in the 3rd round for compensatory picks could be the following teams:1. Buffalo Bills (Nate Clement - 49ers)2. Cincinnati Bengals (Eric Steinberg - Browns)3. Baltimore Ravens (Adalius Thomas - Patriots)4. Philadelphia Eagles (Donte Stallworth - Patriots)5. Indianapolis Colts (Cato June - Buccanneers)I could be wrong, as Im a little tipsy.
Can Spikes or McGahee be included in that as well?
Good rule post, Here's a list of UFAs on new teams1) 126 UNRESTRICTED free agents signed with NEW teams:TEAM PLAYER FORMER TEAM DATE REPORTEDARIZONA DE Rodney Bailey Pittsburgh 4/13CB Ralph Brown Cleveland 4/13T Mike Gandy Buffalo 4/3S Terrence Holt Detroit 3/8CB Roderick Hood Philadelphia 3/13C Al Johnson Dallas 3/6NT Ross Kolodziej Minnesota 4/11WR Sean Morey Pittsburgh 3/15DE Joe Tafoya Seattle 4/13ATLANTA K Billy Cundiff New Orleans 5/7G Toniu Fonoti Miami 3/15T Leander Jordan San Diego 5/9FB Ovie Mughelli Baltimore 3/2CB Lewis Sanders Houston 3/7LB Marcus Wilkins Cincinnati 3/3BUFFALO G Derrick Dockery Washington 3/3RB Josh Scobey Seattle 5/3T Langston Walker Oakland 3/3C Jason Whittle Minnesota 3/3CAROLINA S Deke Cooper San Francisco 3/26CHICAGO DT Anthony Adams San Francisco 3/30CINCINNATI DT Kenderick Allen Green Bay 5/14DT Michael Myers Denver 4/20CLEVELAND DE Antwan Peek Houston 3/5DT Robaire Smith Tennessee 3/16G Eric Steinbach Cincinnati 3/3CB Kenny Wright Washington 3/6DALLAS T Leonard Davis Arizona 3/5S Ken Hamlin Seattle 3/26DENVER TE Daniel Graham New England 3/9LB Warrick Holdman Washington 4/26G Montrae Holland New Orleans 3/5LB D.D. Lewis Seattle 4/26DT Alvin McKinley Cleveland 3/21P Todd Sauerbrun New England 4/20RB Paul Smith St. Louis 3/6DETROIT RB T.J. Duckett Washington 3/16CB Travis Fisher St. Louis 3/13WR Shaun McDonald St. Louis 3/19WR Troy Walters Arizona 6/1DE DeWayne White Tampa Bay 3/5GREEN BAY CB Frank Walker NY Giants 3/15HOUSTON LB Shawn Barber Philadelphia 3/21T Jordan Black Kansas City 3/9WR Andre Davis Buffalo 4/12RB Ahman Green Green Bay 3/5LB Danny Clark New Orleans 3/7CB Jamar Fletcher Detroit 4/5DT Jeff Zgonina Miami 3/15INDIANAPOLIS G Rick DeMulling Detroit 3/30TE Mike Seidman Carolina 5/8JACKSONVILLE WR Dennis Northcutt Cleveland 3/5T Tony Pashos Baltimore 3/3KANSAS CITY DT Alfonso Boone Chicago 3/20LS J.P. Darche Seattle 3/8LB Donnie Edwards San Diego 3/19LB Napoleon Harris Minnesota 3/6S Jon McGraw Detroit 3/28G Damion McIntosh Miami 3/3MIAMI K Jay Feely NY Giants 3/8WR Az-Zahir Hakim San Diego 3/22G Chris Liwienski Arizona 3/22TE David Martin Green Bay 3/5FB Cory Schlesinger Detroit 3/15S Cameron Worrell Chicago 3/8MINNESOTA LB Vinny Ciurciu Carolina 3/3S Mike Doss Indianapolis 4/4WR Cortez Hankton Jacksonville 4/16TE Visanthe Shiancoe N.Y. Giants 3/5WR Bobby Wade Tennessee 3/7NEW ENGLAND TE Kyle Brady Jacksonville 3/3CB Tory James Cincinnati 4/24RB Sammy Morris Miami 3/3WR Donte’ Stallworth Philadelphia 3/13LB Adalius Thomas Baltimore 3/3WR Kelley Washington Cincinnati 3/13NEW ORLEANS LB Troy Evans Houston 4/10TE Eric Johnson San Francisco 3/8S Kevin Kaesviharn Cincinnati 3/15NEW YORK GIANTS LB Kawika Mitchell Kansas City 3/27CB Michael Stone Houston 4/16QB Anthony Wright Cincinnati 4/18NEW YORK JETS FB Darian Barnes Miami 3/8DE David Bowens Miami 4/2DE Kenyon Coleman Dallas 3/6QB Marques Tuiasosopo Oakland 3/23OAKLAND G Cooper Carlisle Denver 4/13T Cornell Green Tampa Bay 3/30FB Justin Griffith Atlanta 3/12C Jeremy Newberry San Francisco 3/7RB Dominic Rhodes Indianapolis 3/9TE Tony Stewart Cincinnati 3/12WR Travis Taylor Minnesota 5/22TE Fred Wakefield Arizona 3/9PHILADELPHIA WR Kevin Curtis St. Louis 3/19WR Bethel Johnson Minnesota 3/15DT Ian Scott Chicago 5/3PITTSBURGH DE Nick Eason Cleveland 4/16C Sean Mahan Tampa Bay 3/12ST. LOUIS WR Drew Bennett Tennessee 3/3LB Chris Draft Carolina 4/2S Todd Johnson Chicago 3/12RB Travis Minor Miami 3/9CB Lenny Walls Kansas City 4/4SAN FRANCISCO LB Tully Banta-Cain New England 3/7DB Nate Clements Buffalo 3/3NT Aubrayo Franklin Baltimore 3/3WR Ashley Lelie Atlanta 3/6S Michael Lewis Philadelphia 3/3SEATTLE S Deon Grant Jacksonville 3/13DE Brandon Green St. Louis 4/25DE Patrick Kerney Atlanta 3/7S Brian Russell Cleveland 3/12TAMPA BAY RB B.J. Askew N.Y. Jets 3/5LB Patrick Chukwura Denver 3/3QB Jeff Garcia Philadelphia 3/3LB Cato June Indianapolis 3/19DE Lance Legree San Francisco 3/8TE Jerramy Stevens Seattle 4/30TENNESSEE WR Justin Gage Chicago 3/23CB Nicholas Harper Indianapolis 3/16QB Tim Rattay Tampa Bay 5/11CB Bryan Scott New Orleans 3/26WASHINGTON LB London Fletcher Buffalo 3/3CB David Macklin Arizona 4/6S Omar Stoutmire New Orleans 3/22
Unless Garcia signed a contract in the range of a franchised player, then they will not be getting a 3rd round pick for him.
Sounds wacky but....Think the Giants get a 3rd for Visanthe? I still can't believe he's making as much as he is
No. Each year the bar gets raised for what a 3rd round pick is worth. IIRC, last year it was for contracts worth like $8 million.Here is a breakdown from last year . . . LINK
I thought Visanthe was amongst the top paid TEs now though and thinking of top 10 (or so) paid players is helpful here. You think it's a dollar amount?I always forget that formula exists.
IIRC, just being higher paid at your position doesn't also translate into higher comp picks, as TE is still not as highly regarded as other positions. Daniel Graham signed a 5 year, $30 million deal also, so I am not sure that they are worth high picks like Brees or Edge were last year. The draft before there was only 1 3rd round pick awarded, so they keep reconfiguring what the baseline is.
From what I've read, it's primarily based on average annual salary, then a minor amount is based on playing time and then performance. Here's a link with UFA changes and some salaries (though it is far from a comprehensive list): http://www.kffl.com/article.php/69992/115 Top ones based on that KFFL link are in order of most per year:
You can take that one to the bank.Mr. Peterson said:
I would guess a 4th.PennState-JD said:
Yes . . . two picks could cancel each other out if they are valued at the same level.GordonGekko said:
My understanding that is that one of the key measures is the overall number free agents that team signs. In other words if a team signs more (number) free agents than it losses, then that is a negative in what ever the actual "secret" formula used by the NFL.GordonGekko said:
Ah. So then maybe Buffalo get nothing because of Dockery. And thanks for answering my question earlier.
They should get a #1 for taking Mahan off the Bucs roster.
McGahee was traded and is not in comp pick consideration.
Since I've given up hope of a team using him as a receiving TE....One's a receiver, one's a blocker. Adrian would have done better I guess but Tavaris(if possible) would have done worse
I think they may get one for Joey Porter. He signed a decent-sized contract last season with Miami.
I know I'm late on this, sorry....but we cut him -- he didn't leave in FA. No comp pick.I think they may get one for Joey Porter. He signed a decent-sized contract last season with Miami.
Quite correct. My mistake.I know I'm late on this, sorry....but we cut him -- he didn't leave in FA. No comp pick.I think they may get one for Joey Porter. He signed a decent-sized contract last season with Miami.
I attempted this in 05 when I was blogging the draft. I put my projection out about a week before Adam's. He schooled me. I'll never try that again.
Drew Bennett 6 yrs $30mil s/b included....
I have suspected for a long time that Adam is actually a supercomputer built by some MIT football fans.
May I ask what you did wrong? Where you were "off"? Do you remember?I always mean to do this but knowing that the first year is probably a year spent trying to figure out where I went wrong and that I won't be close....just never have.
There is some mystery to the formula. The NFL admits it. My most common error was picking the right rounds -- valuing the compensation properly. I disagreed with Adam on 7 or 8 of the rounds, and he nailed all but one of them. It was mostly rounds 3-5 where I didn't get it right, and I was thoroughly confused by some the results. The size of the free agent contract and the performance of the player are both considered in compensating the former team. I think I was too impressed with performance and not impressed enough by money. As I recall, there were also some quirky rules that caused me to erroneously give or not give a team a pick in the 6-7 round trash.
The best way to go about predicting this is to use $$$ as the main element and performance/awards only as a tie breaker. That's pretty much how things have worked out in the past.
Ha, that didn't take long!
