NFL playoff picks against the spread (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Make your picks in the poll and in the thread. Here are my thoughts.

Houston -3

This is a brutal game to get any read on. Houston is down to their third-string QB and lost their last three games. The Bengals went 1-6 against teams with winning records, with the only win coming against Tennessee. Both teams have rookie QBs and ended the season in poor fashion: the Bengals lost 5 of their last 8.

One thing I do know: I don't trust Marvin Lewis at all. I figure there's a 10% chance he costs his team the game outright, and another 10% chance he costs them the game indirectly. Figure otherwise, it's a 50/50 game, so I'll go with the Texans. The 3 points is purely for home field, which means the line says these teams are even. Cincinnati's offense might even be worse than Houston's, and we know their defense isn't as good. For obvious reasons, no one wants to bet on Houston, but I think this line is just too low.

Detroit +10.5

In the playoffs, one meme always seems to run way too far. This year it's "New Orleans at home zomg." Yes, New Orleans was 8-0 at home this year and outscored opponents by 186 points. But that's a product of a small sample size. NO went 17-7 at home the prior three years with the same crazy offense. And the Lions are well equipped for this game for two reasons. One, they're a dome team, and dome teams can handle domes well. Two, they just played in NO. One of the biggest reasons HFA is an advantage is unfamiliarity with the environment, but that's not the case here. I've seen research which indicate HFA is minimized when a team plays a second game in the location in the season, and that's doubly true here.

To me, that half-point hook is pretty key. 9.5 would be pretty scary, but I really like this line at 10.5. I know New Orleans is so hot and everything, but let's not forget: the Lions can do just fine in a shootout and the Saints D isn't all that good. New Orleans is the favorite for a reason, but HFA isn't worth nearly enough to make this line 10.5.

Atlanta +3

Consider this more an anti-Giants pick than anything. New York just isn't that good: swept by Washington, looked ugly in wins over three mediocre AFC East teams, got lucky in a win over Arizona, lost at home to Seattle, looked ugly in a win over St. Louis, lost to a Vince Young-led Philly, got murdered by the Saints. They swept the Cowboys, looked good in losses to GB and SF, beat NE and beat Philly. To me, this is a Giants team that shows up less than half the time. And I think the rallying cry has been to make the playoffs for so long that there's a sense of relief and not opportunity.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is hungry, coming off an ugly post-season loss last year. I think they have a lot to prove, and the offense to shred the Giants secondary. Ryan, Jones, White, Gonzalez? The Giants have no answer at all. I worry about the cold and the wind, but Ryan saw it all at BC. But I can't get behind a Giants team that has little chance of stopping the Falcons offense.

Pittsburgh -anything

Denver has one of the worst offenses in the league. Pittsburgh's defense is suffocating. **** LeBeau is old enough to have coached against the single wing. Denver has scored 17 points on offense while giving up 14 points and 5 turnovers the last 2 games. Against defenses much worse than Pittsburgh. I'd be tempted to take the under, but who knows how far Pittsburgh runs this thing up. Pit could win 13-0, or 27-0, or 42-0. Tough to say.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Houston easily covers and wins the game.

Detroit loses but covers the spread.

Atlanta wins outright to cover.

Pittsburgh covers handily - easiest pick of the bunch.

 

[cdwood]

Cincinnati +3

Houston has the better running game and better defense, but I don't trust the Houston quarterback play and passing game. TJ Yates is inexperienced, and Delhomme may put up nice stats, but he can cost you the game, which is what I see happening. Houston may control the game by running the ball, but I think ultimately the quarterbacking will lose the game for them. It certainly hasn't won them many if any games since Schaub went down to injury.

New Orleans -10.5

As Chase mentioned, that 0.5 pt hook could be key. But I see another game like yesterdays Detroit-Green Bay game where the teams trade touchdowns. The difference being Detroit ends up getting a field goal instead of a touchdown early in the game. That provides a 4 point difference through most of the game. It will be late in the game when Detroit needs to make a play, they don't execute and New Orleans turns that into another touchdown and thus comes in late with a cover and wins by 11 points.

Atlanta +3

This one is as simple as taking the better team, and the fact that you get points to do so is bonus.

Pittsburgh -9

Don't remember the exact line, but as Chase indicates, Pittsburgh minus anything is the play. If Denver plays at home to KC with a win and get in scenario, and can only come up with 3 points at home, I just don't see how they can win this game. With the way Pittsburgh is right now, I think they can do a minimum and still cover, something along the lines of 14-3. My worry would be if Denver manages to score 10+ points because I could see Pittsburgh doing just enough to win 17-10, and not covering.

 

[smackdaddies]

take Houston. There playing the Bungles. 'nuff said. 7pt win

take Aint's. Detroit has zero running game. Stafford gets knocked out of the game by half time. It's a 21 point win.

Hotlanta in a walk. Giants are putrid. 14 pt win

Tebow. BELIEVE! Denver wins by 1

 

[Ghost Rider]

Pittsburgh -9

Don't remember the exact line, but as Chase indicates, Pittsburgh minus anything is the play. If Denver plays at home to KC with a win and get in scenario, and can only come up with 3 points at home, I just don't see how they can win this game. With the way Pittsburgh is right now, I think they can do a minimum and still cover, something along the lines of 14-3. My worry would be if Denver manages to score 10+ points because I could see Pittsburgh doing just enough to win 17-10, and not covering.

Pittsburgh only won 13-9 against a Cleveland team that is much worse than the Chiefs, and the Steelers were still potentially playing for a division title and first round bye. I think what you said at the end is what happens. The Steelers hit a few big plays on offense with Wallace and/or Brown, while the Broncos stay within striking distance, but don't get enough consistent QB play out of Tebow to win the game. I'll say 17-12 Steelers.

I also like the Giants at home minus the points against a dome Falcons team that doesn't play that well outside, especially in the NY cold. I think NYG is definitely the play right now.

 

[jon_mx]

1. Detroit. Easy money. Detroit has too much offense and will be a shootout. But it will be a close shootout.

2. Denver. Denver's defense will keep it close.

3. Atlanta. Atlanta is much better than the Giants. Atlanta by a TD.

4. Houston. Toughest pick of the bunch.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I am starting to get a little worried about Pittsburgh's offense. Maybe the under is the better play here?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I also like the Giants at home minus the points against a dome Falcons team that doesn't play that well outside, especially in the NY cold. I think NYG is definitely the play right now.

This would be my best bet.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Make your picks in the poll and in the thread. Here are my thoughts.

Houston -3

This is a brutal game to get any read on. Houston is down to their third-string QB and lost their last three games. The Bengals went 1-6 against teams with winning records, with the only win coming against Tennessee. Both teams have rookie QBs and ended the season in poor fashion: the Bengals lost 5 of their last 8.

One thing I do know: I don't trust Marvin Lewis at all. I figure there's a 10% chance he costs his team the game outright, and another 10% chance he costs them the game indirectly. Figure otherwise, it's a 50/50 game, so I'll go with the Texans. The 3 points is purely for home field, which means the line says these teams are even. Cincinnati's offense might even be worse than Houston's, and we know their defense isn't as good. For obvious reasons, no one wants to bet on Houston, but I think this line is just too low.

Detroit +10.5

In the playoffs, one meme always seems to run way too far. This year it's "New Orleans at home zomg." Yes, New Orleans was 8-0 at home this year and outscored opponents by 186 points. But that's a product of a small sample size. NO went 17-7 at home the prior three years with the same crazy offense. And the Lions are well equipped for this game for two reasons. One, they're a dome team, and dome teams can handle domes well. Two, they just played in NO. One of the biggest reasons HFA is an advantage is unfamiliarity with the environment, but that's not the case here. I've seen research which indicate HFA is minimized when a team plays a second game in the location in the season, and that's doubly true here.

To me, that half-point hook is pretty key. 9.5 would be pretty scary, but I really like this line at 10.5. I know New Orleans is so hot and everything, but let's not forget: the Lions can do just fine in a shootout and the Saints D isn't all that good. New Orleans is the favorite for a reason, but HFA isn't worth nearly enough to make this line 10.5.

Atlanta +3

Consider this more an anti-Giants pick than anything. New York just isn't that good: swept by Washington, looked ugly in wins over three mediocre AFC East teams, got lucky in a win over Arizona, lost at home to Seattle, looked ugly in a win over St. Louis, lost to a Vince Young-led Philly, got murdered by the Saints. They swept the Cowboys, looked good in losses to GB and SF, beat NE and beat Philly. To me, this is a Giants team that shows up less than half the time. And I think the rallying cry has been to make the playoffs for so long that there's a sense of relief and not opportunity.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is hungry, coming off an ugly post-season loss last year. I think they have a lot to prove, and the offense to shred the Giants secondary. Ryan, Jones, White, Gonzalez? The Giants have no answer at all. I worry about the cold and the wind, but Ryan saw it all at BC. But I can't get behind a Giants team that has little chance of stopping the Falcons offense.

Pittsburgh -anything

Denver has one of the worst offenses in the league. Pittsburgh's defense is suffocating. **** LeBeau is old enough to have coached against the single wing. Denver has scored 17 points on offense while giving up 14 points and 5 turnovers the last 2 games. Against defenses much worse than Pittsburgh. I'd be tempted to take the under, but who knows how far Pittsburgh runs this thing up. Pit could win 13-0, or 27-0, or 42-0. Tough to say.

Made my picks before reading this and agreed on all 4. After reading it, my reasoning is damn near identical. I can't find a single thing to take issue with in this post.That said, if you do wager these games, you'll go 2-2 because I go 2-2 every playoff weekend, every year, without fail.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I am starting to get a little worried about Pittsburgh's offense. Maybe the under is the better play here?

I wouldn't worry too much. Yes, they only scored 13 on Cleveland, but Ben will be a week further along and was finally beginning to look like himself last week, in terms of mobility. Redman fumbled the ball away twice, they missed a FG, had to settle for a chip shot FG on a drive that almost surely would have yielded a TD because they ran out of time in the half. They would have scored 20 under even slightly better circumstances, and that's not counting the fumbles. I have little doubt they can score at least 20 against Denver. Of course, Denver probably won't score more than 10, so the under is still a good play, but I see the final being something along the lines of 21-6.

 

[daveR]

I agree with Chase on the first two. I go with Hou over Cinci -- they're a better team at every position. I go with Det to stay with NO, if not win outright. The mitigating factor is their youth.

ATL / NYG is interesting. The Falcons are relying on their passing game & Matt Ryan more than ever these days, and he has responded very well! They're getting exciting to watch offensively. The Giants, however, are getting healthy at the right time. Their RBs and DL (the hallmarks of this team) have returned from injury and are looking good. And, it looks like Eli has turned the corner, though like everyone else I'm a little gun-shy at saying that. As long as they're healthy, I gotta go with the G-men.

Pit at Den. If the Browns can keep it close against the Steelers, so can Denver. I'll take the points and the Broncos defense at home in the playoffs -- the Steelers are just too beat up to pick to cover in that scenario.

 

[Stewy]

Houston -3

The Texans beat the Bengals in Cinci, in TJ Yates' first start, without Andre Johnson. Johnson's back now and the Texans are at home. I don't think this is nearly as tough to call as most others do.

Detroit +10.5

I expect a shootout and a NO win, but I think the Lions are more than capable of keeping this game within 10 points.

Giants -3

The Giants reek of "team of destiny" to me. Plus, Ryan struggles against a pass rush and the Giants can bring the heat. I think NYG wins this one going away.

Broncos +9

I'll eat my hat if this game doesn't go under. The Broncos' smaller, quicker edge rushers are going to cause fits for the Steelers. The Broncos offense will struggle for obvious reasons. I envision a 13-6 sort of game.

 

[Ilov80s]

The Lions defense should be better than it was against GB and NO. Schwartz said Saturday will be the healthiest the team has been in over a month with the return of Delmas, Corey Williams, Aaron Berry, Lawrence Jackson, and hopefully a closer to full strength Chris Houston and Willie Young. Also, Suh was suspended for the Saints game.

 

[pricklypete]

The Lions defense should be better than it was against GB and NO. Schwartz said Saturday will be the healthiest the team has been in over a month with the return of Delmas, Corey Williams, Aaron Berry, Lawrence Jackson, and hopefully a closer to full strength Chris Houston and Willie Young. Also, Suh was suspended for the Saints game.

More excuses from Schwartz. They just lost to the Packers backups. They are a young and very immature team which becomes rattled a lot. They lose this one big (14+). Great, great young offensive talent. But it is not enough.

 

[Ilov80s]

The Lions defense should be better than it was against GB and NO. Schwartz said Saturday will be the healthiest the team has been in over a month with the return of Delmas, Corey Williams, Aaron Berry, Lawrence Jackson, and hopefully a closer to full strength Chris Houston and Willie Young. Also, Suh was suspended for the Saints game.

More excuses from Schwartz. They just lost to the Packers backups. They are a young and very immature team which becomes rattled a lot. They lose this one big (14+). Great, great young offensive talent. But it is not enough.

They lost to a few Packer back-ups. Green Bay had more back-ups in when they won the Super Bowl than they did Sunday.

 

[Devine Intervention]

I have to disagree about the Giants. I know they have looked ugly but this really reminds me of the 07 Giants. Coming on at the right time, they have Tuck playing good, Osi back, JPP is a beast and all this is making their secondary look better. I think Eli is as clutch as any QB out there. Bradshaw is back with Jacobs and looking good and Victor Cruz is the real deal. I think they make a serious run this postseason. I think they beat up ATL and take a close one in G.B. Teams like GB, NE and NO have a hard time with teams that can get pressure with 4 and still drop back in coverage. Thats what the Giants can do, I think they shake up the playoffs with a run.

NYG - 27

ATL - 17

NYG - 34

GB - 31

NYG - 41

NO - 31

NYG in the SUPERBOWL!

 

[beef]

Atlanta +3.0

Atlanta at NY Giants (Over/Under) Over +47.5

Denver +8.0

Pittsburgh at Denver (Over/Under) Under +34.5

Detroit +11.0

Detroit at New Orleans (Over/Under) Over +59.0

Houston -3.0

Cincinnati at Houston (Over/Under) Under +38.0

 

[pricklypete]

The Lions defense should be better than it was against GB and NO. Schwartz said Saturday will be the healthiest the team has been in over a month with the return of Delmas, Corey Williams, Aaron Berry, Lawrence Jackson, and hopefully a closer to full strength Chris Houston and Willie Young. Also, Suh was suspended for the Saints game.

More excuses from Schwartz. They just lost to the Packers backups. They are a young and very immature team which becomes rattled a lot. They lose this one big (14+). Great, great young offensive talent. But it is not enough.

They lost to a few Packer back-ups. Green Bay had more back-ups in when they won the Super Bowl than they did Sunday.

That's a bit misleading. Last year's injured players happened throughout the year beginning with week 1. By the time the playoffs began those backups had been playing together for a number of games.Sunday they held out their QB, best WR, #1 RB, and starting Tackle on offense. They held out their best two defensive players, Woodson and Matthews, and their kick returner Cobb.By the 3rd quarter they were holding RB Grant out in favor of Saine. Zombo and Jones played a ton at LB. They pretty much treated that game like a preseason game. It truly wasn't a case of a "few backups" as you stated.

 

[beef]

think i'm gonna switch to NO -11 for that game. det's defense is horrendous. brees should carve them up for 35 by half time.

 

[Banemorth]

I have to disagree about the Giants. I know they have looked ugly but this really reminds me of the 07 Giants. Coming on at the right time, they have Tuck playing good, Osi back, JPP is a beast and all this is making their secondary look better. I think Eli is as clutch as any QB out there. Bradshaw is back with Jacobs and looking good and Victor Cruz is the real deal. I think they make a serious run this postseason. I think they beat up ATL and take a close one in G.B. Teams like GB, NE and NO have a hard time with teams that can get pressure with 4 and still drop back in coverage. Thats what the Giants can do, I think they shake up the playoffs with a run.NYG - 27ATL - 17NYG - 34GB - 31NYG - 41NO - 31NYG in the SUPERBOWL!

I hope you're right! I have $20 on NY this weekend to beat Atlanta (no points.) I think the Giants can beat Green Bay too. (They would have if not for the blown Ballard TD call and a few others...)

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm starting to waver on the Giants game. As bad as I think the Giants have played at times, Tuck, Umenyiora and JPP haven't really played together much this season. All are healthy, as are Joseph, Kiwanuka and Boley. Ryan isn't very good under pressure.

I still think the Giants can't cover Jones/White/Gonzo, but maybe they're better equipped to stop the ATL offense than vice versa. Throw in the conditions, and I may switch my pick.

 

[gmbacm]

 

[AB in DC]

Anyone tempted to lay the wood on Pittsburgh should know that Pittsburgh hasn't won a road game by more than 12 points all year.

Lost by 28 @ Baltimore

Won by 3 @ Indianapolis

Lost by 7 @ Houston

Won by 12 @ Arizona

Won by 7 @ Cincinnati

Won by 4 @ Kansas City

Lost by 17 @ San Fran

Won by 4 @ Cleveland

With that kind of history, plus all their injuries, I don't see how Pittsburgh can cover a 9 point spread @ Denver.

 

[Modog814]

Hous -3

Think this line is too low, should be closer to -6. Houston is a team that has been decimated by injuries but still continued to win. And because of this, they are vastly overlooked by the media. Alot of people are writing this team off because of the 3rd string rookie QB, but the gap isn't as wide compared to Dalton. Yates is completing a higher % of passes, for a higher ypa average, and has a higher (slightly) QB rating. Also the 3 game losing streak shouldn't be considered too much (imo) if you look at it. The Carolina game was a classic let down game for a team that had for the first time in its history won the division and made the playoffs. They didn't play well against Indy the next week, but there was some absolutely horrid officiating in that game. And the last week meant absolutely nothing to them, no Foster, easing AJ back in. Plus they went for 2 for the win after tying the game because they had no reason to try and win the game in OT. So you have 3 games that meant absolutely nothing, and they still came close to winning two. IMO, Cincy is a year away from really competing, but they've had their share of injuries too, and I think they are more critical with Hall and Sims out. I think Houston wins 24-14.

Detriot +10.5

Line is way too high. I believe it should be closer to 5.5 or 6. Both teams can score. We know that. Detroit lacks a running game, but who care's when you're facing the #30 team in pass ypg allowed. They're also the worst in the league in completion %, Int %, and #28 in sack%. Stafford should have all day to find his recievers. Not that Brees won't either. Both it should be a shootout and the game will come down to 2 things: 1) Turnover battle (edge Detroit) and 2) Remaining Penalty Free (edge Saints). I think it should be close and will come down to the final minutes, and if Detroit can keep from giving the Saints extra opportunities (via poor penalties that keep/stop drives or turnovers) they actually have a solid shot to win this outright. I'll say 41-35 Saints.

NYG -3

I think the line is probably just about right, but would lean NYG here for a variety of reasons: 1) Atlantas record is inflated. Their only quality win this year was against Detroit is week 7.

2) NYG are a team that plays to the level of their competition. This makes me hesitant to lay any points with them since the game will likely be close, however, laying only 3 isn't bad. The hook would be important. 3) NYG have quality wins. They've beaten NE, they beat the Jets, the beat Philly, they beat Dallas 2x. They do have some unexplainable losses though, including the 2 to Washington. 4) They usually show up for the big games. Specifically I'm talking the 2 Dallas games with the division basically on the line for both games, the Jets game where they didn't play extraordinarily well, but pulled it out, and the game against GB, although they lost, they hung with them. 28-24 NYG.

Denver +9

Just too many points to be giving on the road in a playoff atmostphere. I think Pittsburgh has too many factors going against them, 1) on the road, 2) banged up roethlisberger, banged up woodley, no mendenhall, no clark. 4) Pitt generally has played pretty close games 5) Denver's Defense isn't terrible and could make the scoring low, which is exactly the type of game Denver needs to pull one out. Pitt will most likely win this game, but with low scoring the game could be close and Tebow has shown he has the ability to perform when needed in the 4th quarter, it wouldn't shock me to see the upset here. Pitt pulls it out by making a goal line stand at the end of the game 16-10.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think the line is probably just about right, but would lean NYG here for a variety of reasons: 1) Atlantas record is inflated. Their only quality win this year was against Detroit is week 7. 2) NYG are a team that plays to the level of their competition. This makes me hesitant to lay any points with them since the game will likely be close, however, laying only 3 isn't bad. The hook would be important. 3) NYG have quality wins. They've beaten NE, they beat the Jets, the beat Philly, they beat Dallas 2x. They do have some unexplainable losses though, including the 2 to Washington.

Atlanta beat Philly, too. And isn't winning in Seattle and beating Tennessee pretty good, too? Sweeping Carolina isn't easy, either. I think the Giants' schedule was a little harder, but it's not like they'd be 12-4 against Atlanta's schedule. They'd probably be 10-6.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Denver +9Just too many points to be giving on the road in a playoff atmostphere. I think Pittsburgh has too many factors going against them, 1) on the road, 2) banged up roethlisberger, banged up woodley, no mendenhall, no clark. 4) Pitt generally has played pretty close games 5) Denver's Defense isn't terrible and could make the scoring low, which is exactly the type of game Denver needs to pull one out. Pitt will most likely win this game, but with low scoring the game could be close and Tebow has shown he has the ability to perform when needed in the 4th quarter, it wouldn't shock me to see the upset here. Pitt pulls it out by making a goal line stand at the end of the game 16-10.

The NFL went to the 4-division format in 2002. Since then, there have been 36 WC games featuring a division champ and a WC team at the division champ's stadium. 10 of those times the road WC team won by 10+ points, including the AFC North runner up each of the last three seasons.

 

[dhockster]

I can't believe people are picking Cin. to cover by a 2 to 1 margin.

I think Houston is a solid bet because:

-Yates has seen the Bengals already and led a game winning drive in Cincinnati.

-Andre Johnson is back, he missed the regular season game against the Bengals.

-The Bengal linebackers struggle to cover TE's and the Texans, even with Yates, have been effective with Daniels and Dressen.

-The Texans shut down Benson in the 2nd half of their prior meeting.

-Arian Foster comes in fresh after sitting last week.

-The Texans are at home, so Dalton could easily be effected by the crowd if the Texans defense gets on a roll.

I see a 20-10 Texans win.

 

[Yankee23Fan]

CIN, NY, DET, DEN

 

[Yankee23Fan]

I'm starting to waver on the Giants game. As bad as I think the Giants have played at times, Tuck, Umenyiora and JPP haven't really played together much this season. All are healthy, as are Joseph, Kiwanuka and Boley. Ryan isn't very good under pressure.I still think the Giants can't cover Jones/White/Gonzo, but maybe they're better equipped to stop the ATL offense than vice versa. Throw in the conditions, and I may switch my pick.

I obviously have my Big Blue blinders on but if the D-line is now healthy and all they play well, especially JPP continuing to be out of his mind, I don't think Atlanta has a chance and I really think that they can beat the Packers as well.

 

[Modog814]

I think the line is probably just about right, but would lean NYG here for a variety of reasons: 1) Atlantas record is inflated. Their only quality win this year was against Detroit is week 7. 2) NYG are a team that plays to the level of their competition. This makes me hesitant to lay any points with them since the game will likely be close, however, laying only 3 isn't bad. The hook would be important. 3) NYG have quality wins. They've beaten NE, they beat the Jets, the beat Philly, they beat Dallas 2x. They do have some unexplainable losses though, including the 2 to Washington.

Atlanta beat Philly, too. And isn't winning in Seattle and beating Tennessee pretty good, too? Sweeping Carolina isn't easy, either. I think the Giants' schedule was a little harder, but it's not like they'd be 12-4 against Atlanta's schedule. They'd probably be 10-6.

True, and you're right, I don't think NYG would be 12-4, they'd probably be 10-6. Like I said, I think the line is about right (pretty even teams, both with question marks and 3 pts for home field). Not sure how much can be read into the Seattle games, all year they'd look great one week and terrible the next. I think this game is pretty even and for me it comes down to one thing, the Giants (and specifically Eli) have proven then can win big games. The Falcons (and specifically Ryan) have not.

 

[Modog814]

Denver +9Just too many points to be giving on the road in a playoff atmostphere. I think Pittsburgh has too many factors going against them, 1) on the road, 2) banged up roethlisberger, banged up woodley, no mendenhall, no clark. 4) Pitt generally has played pretty close games 5) Denver's Defense isn't terrible and could make the scoring low, which is exactly the type of game Denver needs to pull one out. Pitt will most likely win this game, but with low scoring the game could be close and Tebow has shown he has the ability to perform when needed in the 4th quarter, it wouldn't shock me to see the upset here. Pitt pulls it out by making a goal line stand at the end of the game 16-10.

The NFL went to the 4-division format in 2002. Since then, there have been 36 WC games featuring a division champ and a WC team at the division champ's stadium. 10 of those times the road WC team won by 10+ points, including the AFC North runner up each of the last three seasons.

I dont' know, I just don't understand these stats. Its like those "Trends" where the Over has hit in the last 10 times so and so did such and such over the last 10 years. I fail to see what they have to do with each other. I mean does the fact that Pittsburgh is the AFC North runner up really going to have an effect on the outcome? Even using your stats, 26 of the 36 times the road WC team didn't cover 10 points.

 

[TobiasFunke]

I'm starting to waver on the Giants game. As bad as I think the Giants have played at times, Tuck, Umenyiora and JPP haven't really played together much this season. All are healthy, as are Joseph, Kiwanuka and Boley. Ryan isn't very good under pressure.I still think the Giants can't cover Jones/White/Gonzo, but maybe they're better equipped to stop the ATL offense than vice versa. Throw in the conditions, and I may switch my pick.

I'm really down on the Giants. I think an unexpectedly horrendous NFC East and a schedule that also paired them it with the NFC West made them look a lot better than they are. They are 12th in the league in DVOA, 16th in weighted DVOA (so they are not improving as their defense gets healthy), and their home field advantage in the new stadium appears minimal. Atlanta is my top play this week.

 

[Modog814]

I'm starting to waver on the Giants game. As bad as I think the Giants have played at times, Tuck, Umenyiora and JPP haven't really played together much this season. All are healthy, as are Joseph, Kiwanuka and Boley. Ryan isn't very good under pressure.I still think the Giants can't cover Jones/White/Gonzo, but maybe they're better equipped to stop the ATL offense than vice versa. Throw in the conditions, and I may switch my pick.

I'm really down on the Giants. I think an unexpectedly horrendous NFC East and a schedule that also paired them it with the NFC West made them look a lot better than they are. They are 12th in the league in DVOA, 16th in weighted DVOA (so they are not improving as their defense gets healthy), and their home field advantage in the new stadium appears minimal. Atlanta is my top play this week.

And the AFC South made Atlanta look ?

 

[TobiasFunke]

I'm starting to waver on the Giants game. As bad as I think the Giants have played at times, Tuck, Umenyiora and JPP haven't really played together much this season. All are healthy, as are Joseph, Kiwanuka and Boley. Ryan isn't very good under pressure.I still think the Giants can't cover Jones/White/Gonzo, but maybe they're better equipped to stop the ATL offense than vice versa. Throw in the conditions, and I may switch my pick.

I'm really down on the Giants. I think an unexpectedly horrendous NFC East and a schedule that also paired them it with the NFC West made them look a lot better than they are. They are 12th in the league in DVOA, 16th in weighted DVOA (so they are not improving as their defense gets healthy), and their home field advantage in the new stadium appears minimal. Atlanta is my top play this week.

And the AFC South made Atlanta look ?

Good enough to be ranked 8th in DVOA, 6th in weighted DVOA.The better football team is getting 3 points at a stadium that doesn't seem to offer much in the way of home field advantage, either in my subjective view from watching the games or objectively looking at the Giants' home/road records over the last two years. That's an easy play in my book.When I talked about the NFC East, I was referring mostly to the high visibility of the division leading to a skewed public perception of the teams' quality. The DVOA rankings adjust for strength of schedule, so that analysis erases the SOS element.

 

[daveR]

Is Yates definitely starting for HOU?

 

[Modog814]

Is Yates definitely starting for HOU?

Last report I saw was that he practiced fully on Wed. Haven't seen anything about Thursday other than he was slated to practice fully again. So at this point, I'd say he's a go.

 

[cheese]

None of the spreads jump out at me. I may take Denver.

I will be taking the Saints/Lions over. I know its really high, but these teams have no chance of stopping each other. I will be shocked if either scores <28.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

None of the spreads jump out at me. I may take Denver.I will be taking the Saints/Lions over. I know its really high, but these teams have no chance of stopping each other. I will be shocked if either scores <28.

Not all books have them, but the team total on the lions will be around 24.

 

[Stewy]

Is Yates definitely starting for HOU?

Yes.

 

[smackdaddies]

Sat lesson is that you should bet against the consensus of people who post at FBG Forums.

 

[dhockster]

I can't believe people are picking Cin. to cover by a 2 to 1 margin.

I think Houston is a solid bet because:

-Yates has seen the Bengals already and led a game winning drive in Cincinnati.Solid game, no big mistakes

-Andre Johnson is back, he missed the regular season game against the Bengals.5-90-1

-The Bengal linebackers struggle to cover TE's and the Texans, even with Yates, have been effective with Daniels and Dressen. Daniels 2-29, missed on that one

-The Texans shut down Benson in the 2nd half of their prior meeting.7 carries, 14 yards

-Arian Foster comes in fresh after sitting last week. 182 total yards, 2 TD's

-The Texans are at home, so Dalton could easily be effected by the crowd if the Texans defense gets on a roll. 3 interceptions

I see a 20-10 Texans win.31-10. I didn't account for the Crazy legs Watt scoring

All in all, I am patting myself on the back.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Make your picks in the poll and in the thread. Here are my thoughts.

Houston -3

This is a brutal game to get any read on. Houston is down to their third-string QB and lost their last three games. The Bengals went 1-6 against teams with winning records, with the only win coming against Tennessee. Both teams have rookie QBs and ended the season in poor fashion: the Bengals lost 5 of their last 8.

One thing I do know: I don't trust Marvin Lewis at all. I figure there's a 10% chance he costs his team the game outright, and another 10% chance he costs them the game indirectly.

Nailed it. I stopped reading after this.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

3 out of 4, not too bad

 

[daveR]

I agree with Chase on the first two. I go with Hou over Cinci -- they're a better team at every position. I go with Det to stay with NO, if not win outright. The mitigating factor is their youth.

ATL / NYG is interesting. The Falcons are relying on their passing game & Matt Ryan more than ever these days, and he has responded very well! They're getting exciting to watch offensively. The Giants, however, are getting healthy at the right time. Their RBs and DL (the hallmarks of this team) have returned from injury and are looking good. And, it looks like Eli has turned the corner, though like everyone else I'm a little gun-shy at saying that. As long as they're healthy, I gotta go with the G-men.

Pit at Den. If the Browns can keep it close against the Steelers, so can Denver. I'll take the points and the Broncos defense at home in the playoffs -- the Steelers are just too beat up to pick to cover in that scenario.

Not bad. If I quit listening to Chase, I might go 4-4.

 

[smackdaddies]

take Houston. There playing the Bungles. 'nuff said. 7pt wintake Aint's. Detroit has zero running game. Stafford gets knocked out of the game by half time. It's a 21 point win.Hotlanta in a walk. Giants are putrid. 14 pt winTebow. BELIEVE! Denver wins by 1

other than coldlanta blowing chow, 3-1 is good work

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Make your picks in the poll and in the thread. Here are my thoughts.

Houston -3

This is a brutal game to get any read on. Houston is down to their third-string QB and lost their last three games. The Bengals went 1-6 against teams with winning records, with the only win coming against Tennessee. Both teams have rookie QBs and ended the season in poor fashion: the Bengals lost 5 of their last 8.

One thing I do know: I don't trust Marvin Lewis at all. I figure there's a 10% chance he costs his team the game outright, and another 10% chance he costs them the game indirectly.

Nailed it. I stopped reading after this.

 

[Fensalk]

Make your picks in the poll and in the thread. Here are my thoughts.

Houston -3

This is a brutal game to get any read on. Houston is down to their third-string QB and lost their last three games. The Bengals went 1-6 against teams with winning records, with the only win coming against Tennessee. Both teams have rookie QBs and ended the season in poor fashion: the Bengals lost 5 of their last 8.

One thing I do know: I don't trust Marvin Lewis at all. I figure there's a 10% chance he costs his team the game outright, and another 10% chance he costs them the game indirectly. Figure otherwise, it's a 50/50 game, so I'll go with the Texans. The 3 points is purely for home field, which means the line says these teams are even. Cincinnati's offense might even be worse than Houston's, and we know their defense isn't as good. For obvious reasons, no one wants to bet on Houston, but I think this line is just too low.

Detroit +10.5

In the playoffs, one meme always seems to run way too far. This year it's "New Orleans at home zomg." Yes, New Orleans was 8-0 at home this year and outscored opponents by 186 points. But that's a product of a small sample size. NO went 17-7 at home the prior three years with the same crazy offense. And the Lions are well equipped for this game for two reasons. One, they're a dome team, and dome teams can handle domes well. Two, they just played in NO. One of the biggest reasons HFA is an advantage is unfamiliarity with the environment, but that's not the case here. I've seen research which indicate HFA is minimized when a team plays a second game in the location in the season, and that's doubly true here.

To me, that half-point hook is pretty key. 9.5 would be pretty scary, but I really like this line at 10.5. I know New Orleans is so hot and everything, but let's not forget: the Lions can do just fine in a shootout and the Saints D isn't all that good. New Orleans is the favorite for a reason, but HFA isn't worth nearly enough to make this line 10.5.

Atlanta +3

Consider this more an anti-Giants pick than anything. New York just isn't that good: swept by Washington, looked ugly in wins over three mediocre AFC East teams, got lucky in a win over Arizona, lost at home to Seattle, looked ugly in a win over St. Louis, lost to a Vince Young-led Philly, got murdered by the Saints. They swept the Cowboys, looked good in losses to GB and SF, beat NE and beat Philly. To me, this is a Giants team that shows up less than half the time. And I think the rallying cry has been to make the playoffs for so long that there's a sense of relief and not opportunity.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is hungry, coming off an ugly post-season loss last year. I think they have a lot to prove, and the offense to shred the Giants secondary. Ryan, Jones, White, Gonzalez? The Giants have no answer at all. I worry about the cold and the wind, but Ryan saw it all at BC. But I can't get behind a Giants team that has little chance of stopping the Falcons offense.

Pittsburgh -anything

Denver has one of the worst offenses in the league. Pittsburgh's defense is suffocating. **** LeBeau is old enough to have coached against the single wing. Denver has scored 17 points on offense while giving up 14 points and 5 turnovers the last 2 games. Against defenses much worse than Pittsburgh. I'd be tempted to take the under, but who knows how far Pittsburgh runs this thing up. Pit could win 13-0, or 27-0, or 42-0. Tough to say.

Made my picks before reading this and agreed on all 4. After reading it, my reasoning is damn near identical. I can't find a single thing to take issue with in this post.That said, if you do wager these games, you'll go 2-2 because I go 2-2 every playoff weekend, every year, without fail.

Oooof.

 

[Dave Larkin]

I was able to nail the first three games, but of course upsets always happen in the NFL and the Broncos victory ruined my accumulator bet. I've learned my lesson - God punishes you if you bet against Tebow.