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NFL Strength of Schedule (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
We rate each team's Strength of Schedule.

www.footballguys.com

2025 NFL Strength of Schedule By Team

The team-by-team strength of schedule for the 2025 NFL season.
www.footballguys.com www.footballguys.com

Lots of people have lots of different opinions on how much Strength of Schedule matters. If at all.

What do you think?

Below is the strength of schedule based on each team's odds to reach Super Bowl LX.

The easiest schedule (New England) is listed first, down to the most difficult (sorry, Giants' fans).

I couldn't get it to format on the post but if you click on the link, you'll see the number of games each team has against opponents in the top 8 and the bottom 8 of those Super Bowl odds.


New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
Atlanta Falcons
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Rams
Arizona Cardinals
Seattle Seahawks
Cincinnati Bengals
Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys
Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Commanders
Baltimore Ravens
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles
Cleveland Browns
Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
New York Giants

​
 
I do prefer something like this over the standard ones that only look at last year's records. Schedules change every year so some of last years records may be inflated or deflated because of that.

Of course even the most up to date odds are based on now and not where teams will be by playoff time.
 
I made a thread last week basically comparing last year's pre-season SoS (based on anlytics and vegas wim totals) and end of season actual SoS.

The results were not pretty. The analysis really makes you realize everything that goes into NFL team success and how it is so hard to predict SoS.
 
Looking at the most egregious example of pre-season vs final SoS from last year.

New England was projected to have the hardest schedule, but ended up with the 7th easiest.

This was their schedule.

@ Bengals
Seahawks
@ Jets
49ers
Dolphins
Texans
@ Jaguars
Jets
@ Titans
@ Bears
Rams
@ Dolphins
Colts
@ Cardinals
@ Bills
Chargers
Bills

The Dolphins and 49ers were both teams that greatly underperformed pre-season expectations. The Jets, Bengals, and Colts maybe a little less so. Not sure if that was enough for that large a swing, but this makes it clear that for SoS to be accurate, the 13 unique teams everyone has to face has to at least be close to pre-season expectations. That just doesn't happen.

Maybe a better way to look at SoS is to look at schedule volatility and come up with a confidence factor. As in, for each team, identify on their schedule how many teams they play that have a chance to regress or be difficult to predict. So questions like can Dallas and San Francisco come back and become contenders? What will the Bears do? Was Tampa Bay a one year wonder? On the other hand, outside of catastrophic injuries, we have pretty good confidence in teams like Philly, Baltimore, and Buffalo being good again.
 
Terpman22 said:
I found this one to be a bit more compelling, basing the strength of schedule off of CURRENT 2025 Super Bowl odds for team opponents.
Click to expand...

Agreed!

That's what we're doing as well. And our results are similar to what you linked.

I would guess the slight differences in results were due to the following factors:
  • Using an average of several sites' Super Bowl odds.
  • Using the actual odds rather than ranks to preserve spreads between teams. The difference between #7 and #8 is the same as between #17 and #18. However, those two pairs of teams could have close odds or a wide gap in odds.
  • Accounting for home and away as well as the international, neutral-site games.
 
Clayton Gray said:
Terpman22 said:
I found this one to be a bit more compelling, basing the strength of schedule off of CURRENT 2025 Super Bowl odds for team opponents.
Click to expand...

Agreed!

That's what we're doing as well. And our results are similar to what you linked.

I would guess the slight differences in results were due to the following factors:
  • Using an average of several sites' Super Bowl odds.
  • Using the actual odds rather than ranks to preserve spreads between teams. The difference between #7 and #8 is the same as between #17 and #18. However, those two pairs of teams could have close odds or a wide gap in odds.
  • Accounting for home and away as well as the international, neutral-site games.
Click to expand...

Thanks @Clayton Gray. I love how you did this using current Super Bowl odds. This to me is the best way to measure something like this. (That's really hard to measure).
 
Joe Bryant said:
Clayton Gray said:
Terpman22 said:
I found this one to be a bit more compelling, basing the strength of schedule off of CURRENT 2025 Super Bowl odds for team opponents.
Click to expand...

Agreed!

That's what we're doing as well. And our results are similar to what you linked.

I would guess the slight differences in results were due to the following factors:
  • Using an average of several sites' Super Bowl odds.
  • Using the actual odds rather than ranks to preserve spreads between teams. The difference between #7 and #8 is the same as between #17 and #18. However, those two pairs of teams could have close odds or a wide gap in odds.
  • Accounting for home and away as well as the international, neutral-site games.
Click to expand...

Thanks @Clayton Gray. I love how you did this using current Super Bowl odds. This to me is the best way to measure something like this. (That's really hard to measure).
Click to expand...
This makes the most sense to me, especially if you update the SOS week by week to reflect any changes in the odds going forward.
 
I don't think it matters at all really, once a few players get hurt all those stats get thrown away. Okay, so let me rephrase that, it sets a great baseline but in the longterm is useless. At the start of last season, if you played the Redskins you would have been viewed to have an "easy" opponent.

Turns out the Redskins were really a playoff caliber team who made it all the way to the NFC Championship. I think the concept itself is overconfident in its prospects and does not take into account the wide array of potential outcomes. If everyone stayed healthy and the valuation of every player was 100% accurate, then sure, tell me all about strength of schedule. But as a longterm football fan, since I know neither of those variables are accurate, I put very little credence into data like this.
 
SHH said:
I don't think it matters at all really, once a few players get hurt all those stats get thrown away. Okay, so let me rephrase that, it sets a great baseline but in the longterm is useless. At the start of last season, if you played the Redskins you would have been viewed to have an "easy" opponent.

Turns out the Redskins were really a playoff caliber team who made it all the way to the NFC Championship. I think the concept itself is overconfident in its prospects and does not take into account the wide array of potential outcomes. If everyone stayed healthy and the valuation of every player was 100% accurate, then sure, tell me all about strength of schedule. But as a longterm football fan, since I know neither of those variables are accurate, I put very little credence into data like this.
Click to expand...

This is what I was saying. Each team plays 13 unique teams and for SoS to be right, the projected records or odds for all of their opponents have to be right, which is a tall order. And if one of the 4 teams you play twice did not maintain the same odds, that really tips the scale.

I'll look at huge projected SoS swings from last year to this year, but still not weigh it too much. Like how the 49ers ended up with the hardest schedule last year and are projected with one of the easiest this year.
 
I would focus on the Dolphins, Bills, and Patriots for a couple reasons
They're schedules will overlap with you getting the easier opponents not just once but several times depending on how many you take
Perhaps an Achane-Cook combo at RB is the way to go.
Maybe you back up Allen with Drake Maye from the Patriots so you can feast on easier teams multiple times

Try to overlook Hill and Waddle last year, Miami has brought in reinforcements for the OL, also lost Armstead at Left Tackle
Look to the AFC East for some of your picks when it's between one player or another from the same tier. Maybe pick the team with an easier schedule.
Injuries happen so a couple lottery picks like Ollie Gordon for Miami, Ray Davis for Buffalo, Rhamondre is going to be cheap, everyone will take Henderson

The other teams in the Top 5...San Fran has had a very mediocre off season and draft, just my opinion. They went 6-11 last year
The Saints are on a one way ticket right now for a QB in '26, I would stay away mostly
 
Falcons, Bucs and Panthers all have easier schedules although not Top 5 but Top 10 is still pretty good

A team with all Bills, Phins, Pats, Falcons, Bucs and Panthers will likely net you some juicy match ups most weeks.
I wouldn't only draft from these 5 or 6 teams but I would factor in the schedule when I am looking at tiers and current ADP, you have to weigh those things before you get to draft night
 
Leroy Hoard said:
Joe Bryant said:
Clayton Gray said:
Terpman22 said:
I found this one to be a bit more compelling, basing the strength of schedule off of CURRENT 2025 Super Bowl odds for team opponents.
Click to expand...

Agreed!

That's what we're doing as well. And our results are similar to what you linked.

I would guess the slight differences in results were due to the following factors:
  • Using an average of several sites' Super Bowl odds.
  • Using the actual odds rather than ranks to preserve spreads between teams. The difference between #7 and #8 is the same as between #17 and #18. However, those two pairs of teams could have close odds or a wide gap in odds.
  • Accounting for home and away as well as the international, neutral-site games.
Click to expand...

Thanks @Clayton Gray. I love how you did this using current Super Bowl odds. This to me is the best way to measure something like this. (That's really hard to measure).
Click to expand...
This makes the most sense to me, especially if you update the SOS week by week to reflect any changes in the odds going forward.
Click to expand...

That's a fun idea. Thanks. @Clayton Gray we should look at something like this updated weekly.
 
Is anyone else ready to make the Buffalo Bills the odds on favorite to win the AFC in 2025?
Easy schedule, strong off season including a makeover on defense especially the DL which got a lot of love in the draft.
Good offense not spectacular but they have enough to manufacture 21-24+ a game with josh Allen at QB, that might be enough most weeks.
Cook could follow a career year with another career year before he cashes in
He can't leverage a holdout IMO, that's the only draw back with him right now, 4th year of his rookie deal, not getting paid much
Buffalo is going 13-4 and either a 1 or 2 seed.
 
Terpman22 said:
I found this one to be a bit more compelling, basing the strength of schedule off of CURRENT 2025 Super Bowl odds for team opponents.

Click to expand...
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Ministry of Pain said:
I would focus on the Dolphins, Bills, and Patriots for a couple reasons
They're schedules will overlap with you getting the easier opponents not just once but several times depending on how many you take
Perhaps an Achane-Cook combo at RB is the way to go.
Maybe you back up Allen with Drake Maye from the Patriots so you can feast on easier teams multiple times

Try to overlook Hill and Waddle last year, Miami has brought in reinforcements for the OL, also lost Armstead at Left Tackle
Look to the AFC East for some of your picks when it's between one player or another from the same tier. Maybe pick the team with an easier schedule.
Injuries happen so a couple lottery picks like Ollie Gordon for Miami, Ray Davis for Buffalo, Rhamondre is going to be cheap, everyone will take Henderson

The other teams in the Top 5...San Fran has had a very mediocre off season and draft, just my opinion. They went 6-11 last year
The Saints are on a one way ticket right now for a QB in '26, I would stay away mostly
Click to expand...

I agree with a lot of what you say, but I still think SoS shouldn't factor much into drafting decisions.

Last year Miami ended up having the easiest schedule and couldn't do anything with it. Tua's concussion, the OL and other factors played in. Schedule was irrelevant to the team and players' success or in this case the lack of.

Also, for SF, they had the hardest schedule last year and are projected to have the easiest this year. That might raise an eyebrow for many, but this alone does not mean a turnaround is in store for them. I agree with you about their offseason and that a drastic improvement may not be in the cards for them.
 
Scoresman said:
Ministry of Pain said:
I would focus on the Dolphins, Bills, and Patriots for a couple reasons
They're schedules will overlap with you getting the easier opponents not just once but several times depending on how many you take
Perhaps an Achane-Cook combo at RB is the way to go.
Maybe you back up Allen with Drake Maye from the Patriots so you can feast on easier teams multiple times

Try to overlook Hill and Waddle last year, Miami has brought in reinforcements for the OL, also lost Armstead at Left Tackle
Look to the AFC East for some of your picks when it's between one player or another from the same tier. Maybe pick the team with an easier schedule.
Injuries happen so a couple lottery picks like Ollie Gordon for Miami, Ray Davis for Buffalo, Rhamondre is going to be cheap, everyone will take Henderson

The other teams in the Top 5...San Fran has had a very mediocre off season and draft, just my opinion. They went 6-11 last year
The Saints are on a one way ticket right now for a QB in '26, I would stay away mostly
Click to expand...

I agree with a lot of what you say, but I still think SoS shouldn't factor much into drafting decisions.

Last year Miami ended up having the easiest schedule and couldn't do anything with it. Tua's concussion, the OL and other factors played in. Schedule was irrelevant to the team and players' success or in this case the lack of.

Also, for SF, they had the hardest schedule last year and are projected to have the easiest this year. That might raise an eyebrow for many, but this alone does not mean a turnaround is in store for them. I agree with you about their offseason and that a drastic improvement may not be in the cards for them.
Click to expand...
Achane racked up 1500 total yds, 12 TDs and 78 receptions to boot so not all the Miami Dolphins missed out
I agree, wouldn't draft strictly off soft schedule
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Is anyone else ready to make the Buffalo Bills the odds on favorite to win the AFC in 2025?
Easy schedule, strong off season including a makeover on defense especially the DL which got a lot of love in the draft.
Good offense not spectacular but they have enough to manufacture 21-24+ a game with josh Allen at QB, that might be enough most weeks.
Cook could follow a career year with another career year before he cashes in
He can't leverage a holdout IMO, that's the only draw back with him right now, 4th year of his rookie deal, not getting paid much
Buffalo is going 13-4 and either a 1 or 2 seed.
Click to expand...
maybe. its hard to give anyone strong odds with KC, Buf, Bal being as good as they all are each season
 
IHEARTFF said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Is anyone else ready to make the Buffalo Bills the odds on favorite to win the AFC in 2025?
Easy schedule, strong off season including a makeover on defense especially the DL which got a lot of love in the draft.
Good offense not spectacular but they have enough to manufacture 21-24+ a game with josh Allen at QB, that might be enough most weeks.
Cook could follow a career year with another career year before he cashes in
He can't leverage a holdout IMO, that's the only draw back with him right now, 4th year of his rookie deal, not getting paid much
Buffalo is going 13-4 and either a 1 or 2 seed.
Click to expand...
maybe. its hard to give anyone strong odds with KC, Buf, Bal being as good as they all are each season
Click to expand...
Ravens lost one of their starting Cornerbacks already for the season and we haven't even hit June yet
There's not many teams on the Bills level. Chiefs are going to be in for some actual competition this year in the West
Just my opinion but I feel strongly Buffalo will be in the AFCC this year
I don't take anyone in the North or South seriously at the moment.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
Is anyone else ready to make the Buffalo Bills the odds on favorite to win the AFC in 2025?
Easy schedule, strong off season including a makeover on defense especially the DL which got a lot of love in the draft.
Good offense not spectacular but they have enough to manufacture 21-24+ a game with josh Allen at QB, that might be enough most weeks.
Cook could follow a career year with another career year before he cashes in
He can't leverage a holdout IMO, that's the only draw back with him right now, 4th year of his rookie deal, not getting paid much
Buffalo is going 13-4 and either a 1 or 2 seed.
Click to expand...
I have Buffalo winning the AFC as of today.

NFC a bit harder right now. The top three teams play each other a lot and have overall brutal looking schedules as of today. Love my Eagles but see the Rams with a much easier path to a #1 seed

Just a thought experiment right now though. Far too early with far too much speculative data
 
Zeppelin said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Is anyone else ready to make the Buffalo Bills the odds on favorite to win the AFC in 2025?
Click to expand...
It's the middle of May and there are other great teams in the AFC. Also the Bills have to prove they can beat the Chiefs when it matters. Regardless, it's way too early.
Click to expand...
Gonna go on record now and say KC will be hard pressed to win their own division this year, let alone the conference. KC had a ton of luck last year, pulling out one hotly contested game after another, often in dramatic last second fashion. They were a great team, but still over-rated...and they won't be any better this year
 
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