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No consensus #1 ROOKIE pick in 2009? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
Blackjacks
Footballguy
I love the NFL draft and rookie draft time for fantasy players and dynasty players however I have learned there is no reason to start talking about who is going where in drafts until we know what team they are going t
ne guy I do like alot is McCoy out of Pittsburgh but it all depends where he goes. If he went to Houston to challenge for the job with Slaton he would have upside of a top 5 pick. If he went to Cleveland to be the starter he would be a #1 or #2 and if he went to Dallas where he would be #3 on the depth chart he would be a #10-#15 pick.That's why there is no reason to talk about it yet
the Jag Zone
Footballguy
I watch a lot of College Football..and as always the success of most Rookies depends on the Teams they are Drafted by..
but to list one I would have an eye on personally...
it'll be James Davis.. RB Clemson.. 5'11 215..
and can run with power getting tough between the tackle yards..
obviously this year most will say not a chance because of Clemsons' team failures..
I'll beg to differ..
if this guy is chosen by the right team and gets an opportunity to perform on the field I'm confident he'll be one of the top Rookie RBs..
but as always.. the situation he falls into and opportunity he gets or doesn't get will factor in..
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BoulderBob
Footballguy
Pretty much...if you have the rookie draft before the actual NFL draft, it may warrant some discussion. I don't think you can go wrong with Wells, Moreno, McCoy, S. Green, or Spiller, assuming they all declare. But Wells is still the sure-fire #1 RB, I'll be shocked if that changes come draft day...I love the NFL draft and rookie draft time for fantasy players and dynasty players however I have learned there is no reason to start talking about who is going where in drafts until we know what team they are going t
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gianmarco
Footballguy
I completely understand that things will change, esp. as we get closer.
However, last year, McFadden was pretty much the consensus #1 (for those who ignored BMI).
The year before, AP was the consensus #1
The year before, Bush was the consensus #1
Usually by this point, we have at least an idea of who the favorite is and others can move up or drop down as time passes. However, there is a pretty large # of guys you can make an argument for as going #1 overall AND there isn't one guy that is appearing at the top of most lists of discussion at this point. I find that interesting and can have potential fantasy impact for those looking to move 1st round picks now that draft orders for this coming year are clearer. Not sure owning the 1.1 this year is a good thing in relation to recent years in terms of value.
However, last year, McFadden was pretty much the consensus #1 (for those who ignored BMI).
The year before, AP was the consensus #1
The year before, Bush was the consensus #1
Usually by this point, we have at least an idea of who the favorite is and others can move up or drop down as time passes. However, there is a pretty large # of guys you can make an argument for as going #1 overall AND there isn't one guy that is appearing at the top of most lists of discussion at this point. I find that interesting and can have potential fantasy impact for those looking to move 1st round picks now that draft orders for this coming year are clearer. Not sure owning the 1.1 this year is a good thing in relation to recent years in terms of value.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Trading down is usually a good idea, especially this year.This could be like the SJax/KJones/JJones/Bell class where there was a good amount of disagreement. Even more like that class, the WR might be the better pick. We'll find some people really liking Wells, others like Moreno, some who take a "safer" approach will take Greene, while some will take Crabtree.gianmarco said:
IMO, we're going to find this is a deep class, and while it might lack a consensus #1, it will not be devoid of star power.
EBF
Footballguy
I've been participating in rookie drafts for several years now. One of the things I've learned is that the players with the most hype aren't always the guys who pan out. Look at last year's class. Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson are putting up much better numbers than Limas Sweed and Devin Thomas. Chris Johnson and Matt Forte are easily outscoring Darren McFadden and Jonathan Stewart.
We know that some high-drafted rookies from any given class will succeed, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly who those players will be. Draft position is a rough indicator, but it's hardly flawless. Darren McFadden was picked ahead of Chris Johnson. Kevin Dyson was picked ahead of Randy Moss. Freddie Mitchell was picked ahead of Reggie Wayne. Troy Williamson was picked ahead of Roddy White. It's true that higher picks perform better than lower picks on average, but that doesn't make your decision any easier when you're on the clock trying to decide between Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, and Chris Johnson.
With that in mind, I'm increasingly buying into the idea that drawing a distinction between tiers of players is more important than drawing a distinction between individual players. You can say with confidence that LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene, Chris Wells, Knowshon Moreno, and CJ Spiller are the elite backs in this class, but can you really say who from this group will succeed and who will fail? It's difficult. Often times the ones who pan out aren't the most obvious selections.
Unless you're on the clock staring at a stone-cold lock like Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson, it's probably smarter to trade down within the tier and pick up an extra high selection. Then pick the top guy on your board and cross your fingers. I don't see that obvious Peterson, Fitzgerald, or Bush type of impact player this year. You can make a case for Crabtree, but the presence of Harvin/DHB/Maclin means there's a whole cluster of wideouts who offer comparable risk and reward.
IMO we're looking at a group of 6-8 players who have a reasonable chance of becoming the top player from this class in PPR leagues. There are some guys I like more than others, but overall I see a big fat cluster of similar values.
We know that some high-drafted rookies from any given class will succeed, but it's hard to pinpoint exactly who those players will be. Draft position is a rough indicator, but it's hardly flawless. Darren McFadden was picked ahead of Chris Johnson. Kevin Dyson was picked ahead of Randy Moss. Freddie Mitchell was picked ahead of Reggie Wayne. Troy Williamson was picked ahead of Roddy White. It's true that higher picks perform better than lower picks on average, but that doesn't make your decision any easier when you're on the clock trying to decide between Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, and Chris Johnson.
With that in mind, I'm increasingly buying into the idea that drawing a distinction between tiers of players is more important than drawing a distinction between individual players. You can say with confidence that LeSean McCoy, Shonn Greene, Chris Wells, Knowshon Moreno, and CJ Spiller are the elite backs in this class, but can you really say who from this group will succeed and who will fail? It's difficult. Often times the ones who pan out aren't the most obvious selections.
Unless you're on the clock staring at a stone-cold lock like Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson, it's probably smarter to trade down within the tier and pick up an extra high selection. Then pick the top guy on your board and cross your fingers. I don't see that obvious Peterson, Fitzgerald, or Bush type of impact player this year. You can make a case for Crabtree, but the presence of Harvin/DHB/Maclin means there's a whole cluster of wideouts who offer comparable risk and reward.
IMO we're looking at a group of 6-8 players who have a reasonable chance of becoming the top player from this class in PPR leagues. There are some guys I like more than others, but overall I see a big fat cluster of similar values.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
A
awesomeness
Guest
Then you would be making a mistake...
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Of course there is, there are plenty of teams who look to acquire draft picks at the end of the season in an effort to rebuild. Getting an idea of what kind of players are going to be available in the draft can help quite a bit. You may not be able to pinpoint exactly who is going to go where, but to at least get an idea of where the tiers will be is beneficial when trading for picks.Also, threads like this are better than everyone trying to slip in ACF topics like "who are you starting over _____? Or, "I am starting ______ over _______".
doowain
Footballguy
A
awesomeness
Guest
This has been gone over numerous times. Nothing is official at this point.Last year both Kevin Smith and Steve Slaton said they were going to return to school, but went back on their word by the time of the draft.
doowain
Footballguy
That's why I said "for the time being". Read all the way to the end of the sentence please.
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A
awesomeness
Guest
If there's still a 50-75% chance of the guy declaring, why should i forget about him?
doowain
Footballguy
Are you serious right now? The guy I replied to asked if McCoy had "said" he was returning to school. I confirmed that and provided a link. NOW, whether McCoy goes back on that word or not......your guess is as good as mine. For the "time being", the kid is returning to school and for that reason alone, you can forget about him as the possible first pick in rookie drafts. If and when he changes his mind, then he returns to the conversation. Until that happens, it's pointless to include him in the conversation.I don't know why you are trying to make this difficult.
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A
awesomeness
Guest
"If there's still a 50-75% chance of the guy declaring, why should i forget about him?"
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Of course there is, there are plenty of teams who look to acquire draft picks at the end of the season in an effort to rebuild. Getting an idea of what kind of players are going to be available in the draft can help quite a bit. You may not be able to pinpoint exactly who is going to go where, but to at least get an idea of where the tiers will be is beneficial when trading for picks.Also, threads like this are better than everyone trying to slip in ACF topics like "who are you starting over _____? Or, "I am starting ______ over _______".I love the NFL draft and rookie draft time for fantasy players and dynasty players however I have learned there is no reason to start talking about who is going where in drafts until we know what team they are going t
That's why there is no reason to talk about it yet
Especially the bolded part.
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Weiner Dog
Footballguy
IMO, Wells has done nothing to lose his hold on being the #1 pick in most FF drafts next year. Even though stats do not tell the whole story, the guy averaged 5.7 yards/carry (...after averaging 5.9 yards/carry in '07) and has improved his receiving ability. All of this was accomplished while playing with a rookie QB having little relevance in the passing game.
Sure...I can see the arguments for Crabtree. The guy is a man-beast. However, to drop Wells to the 4, 5, 6, etc hole is merely over-analyzing the situation. As everybody knows, several message board posters are notorious for going "against the grain" in an effort to make repetitive bumps to their posts if their ranking succeeds. However, these same posters historically back-peddle when confronted about past failed picks.
1 - Wells
2 - Crabtree
3 - Moreno
Sure...I can see the arguments for Crabtree. The guy is a man-beast. However, to drop Wells to the 4, 5, 6, etc hole is merely over-analyzing the situation. As everybody knows, several message board posters are notorious for going "against the grain" in an effort to make repetitive bumps to their posts if their ranking succeeds. However, these same posters historically back-peddle when confronted about past failed picks.
1 - Wells
2 - Crabtree
3 - Moreno
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Although i prefer Moreno to Wells, this is very
vikingsguy22
Footballguy
I love this time of the year...NFL playoffs and then the anticipation of the draft. I'm watching this rookie class very closely since I am rebuilding a dynasty team and have 4 picks in the top 14 or so picks.
If there was one prevailing theme I took away from last years draft class it's that the situation/team players fall into makes a HUGE impact.
Look at the consensus top 6-7 backs from last year - McFadden, Stewart, Mendy, K. Smith, Forte, Rice, C. Johnson...
McFadden went to a good situation but has fought injuries
Stewart knew he was going to be battling for carries with D. Williams
Mendy was behing W. Parker
K. Smith had very little to beat out
Forte very little to beat out
Rice had to contend with McGahee and McLain who came out of nowhere
C. Johnson had L. White to deal with, but it was a run-first team
The guys in the best situations (K. Smith, Forte, C. Johnson) outside of McFadden, are top producing rookie RB's.
Granted...McFadden, Stewart and Mendy could all still end up being VERY good backs...but the guys are producing are the guys who have the most opportunities to.
That being said...this years class looks to be about 7-8 deep with potential studs if you ask me and the WR talent this year is hands down better than last years.
Bring on the combine!
If there was one prevailing theme I took away from last years draft class it's that the situation/team players fall into makes a HUGE impact.
Look at the consensus top 6-7 backs from last year - McFadden, Stewart, Mendy, K. Smith, Forte, Rice, C. Johnson...
McFadden went to a good situation but has fought injuries
Stewart knew he was going to be battling for carries with D. Williams
Mendy was behing W. Parker
K. Smith had very little to beat out
Forte very little to beat out
Rice had to contend with McGahee and McLain who came out of nowhere
C. Johnson had L. White to deal with, but it was a run-first team
The guys in the best situations (K. Smith, Forte, C. Johnson) outside of McFadden, are top producing rookie RB's.
Granted...McFadden, Stewart and Mendy could all still end up being VERY good backs...but the guys are producing are the guys who have the most opportunities to.
That being said...this years class looks to be about 7-8 deep with potential studs if you ask me and the WR talent this year is hands down better than last years.
Bring on the combine!
We'll see once the combine rolls around.
There isn't always a consensus guy though, I think hindsight is coloring people's perception. Lots of people were down on Peterson due to his injuries and his questionable hands at the time. Many had Calvin ahead of him and drafted Calvin 1st overall. It was basically take your pick between Caddy, Ronnie or Benson that year. There was really nobody to chose from in 2002. Pick your poison: Willie Green, TJ Ducket, Foster, maybe the 2nd rounder Portis who had to contend with Olandis Gary?
There isn't always a consensus guy though, I think hindsight is coloring people's perception. Lots of people were down on Peterson due to his injuries and his questionable hands at the time. Many had Calvin ahead of him and drafted Calvin 1st overall. It was basically take your pick between Caddy, Ronnie or Benson that year. There was really nobody to chose from in 2002. Pick your poison: Willie Green, TJ Ducket, Foster, maybe the 2nd rounder Portis who had to contend with Olandis Gary?
broncofan13000
Footballguy
I think when all is said and done chris wells will be the #1 pick in most drafts. That doesn't mean that taking a moreno or crabtree over him is the wrong decision.
jurb26
Footballguy
Things are certainly not as clear at the top of this years class as they have been the past few years. Someone will more than likely surface however. There is a solid group of tier 1 RBs and once the combine rolls through and then everyone knows what team these guys will be playing for I think a somewhat clear #1 will emerge. My guess is that it will be Wells. The real trump card would be a tier 1 RB landing in a place like NYJ or Den. If both happen then all hell breaks loose again.
gianmarco
Footballguy
I don't think it's hindsight at all. People may have been worried about Peterson's health and Calvin was a legit #1 overall pick for those who went with him, but AP was still the consensus #1. The year before, it was Bush and then it was your choice of Maroney/DeWill/Addai. Last year, although there were Stewart and Mendenhall supporters, McFadden was the consensus #1 and there were posts trying to show why he shouldn't be.Right now, I just don't see that. It's closer to the Ronnie/Caddy/Benson group at this point and there aren't even 3 clear front-runners like then.Buckna said:
We'll have to agree to disagree on Peterson as it definitely wasn't as clear cut in PPR leagues. He was certainly the consensus #1 RB, but there were many, many threads and arguments with people who wanted Calvin instead. There were even some isolated arguments that Lynch was a safer option, but those crazy people were in the minority.I agree that this year is more like 2005 where these doesn't seem to be a clear frontrunner. I think that will likely change come combine/draft time. If I you're drafting in the 4~7 range in a PPR, those picks are looking like gold right now. Lots of equally good RB's & WR's to chose from instead of a clear dropoff after the first few picks like usual.
