Meachem returned a kick for 4 yards. What happened there?
Btw, I never read he was being held out for this game. I just think he is way way way down the depth chart. A beat writer said if not for the high draft pick, he'd be a practice squad player.
Classic local coverage with a flair for the dramatic.
Yes, but everything we've read and seen seems to validate the comment, no? Has he performed like someone who would typically make the roster?
You can't get too carried away with these guys this early in their careers. Devery was invisible as a rookie. And we all know how bad Burress was. Was anyone on the planet hyping Chad Johnson after his rookie season? Santana Moss? On the flipside, you have guys like Michael Clayton, Antonio Bryant, Koren Robinson, and Rod Gardner. They started hot and fizzled out.
I like to read training camp updates and I'm always encouraged by early returns, but it's important to acknowledge the fact that the first 1-2 seasons of a player's career don't always tell the whole story.
I don't rank Meachem significantly lower than where I would have two months ago. He's the same big, fast WR that the Saints took in the first round. If two years pass and he still stinks then I'll be more worried, but right now he's just another rookie for whom things may or may not ever "click."
I'm probably more patient with WRs than you are so this isn't about being carried away. As for you not moving Meachem significantly lower than you had him, you are on record not being very high on him to begin with. I said since before the draft, of the top receivers, Meachem was the most likely to bust. In your "two sides of rookies" example you didn't mention a third side of first rounders like David Terrell, Rashaun Woods, Freddie Mitchell, and Troy Edwards. Meachem could very well end up in that class. It's more likely he's a Bryant Johnson/Travis Taylor first rounder, but who knows? I'd be disappointed in his start if I owned him, but okay with hanging on for a couple years. What else can you do. Shop him? Maybe that's the best move since many don't seem to be tracking his struggles very closely. Still the value has taken a hit. Have you moved him below Laurent Robinson, James Jones, Craig Davis, and/or Jacoby Jones?
I have and that's significant to me. This WR class was loaded. I don't feel like being overly patient when some of these guys are off and running. Lesser classes make the patience less painful.
Young WRs come in several flavors. For our purposes, I think we can break them down into four basic classes:
The Instant Star - The Randy Moss/Anquan Boldin who rips up the league from day one and has the talent to last as an NFL star. These guys are very rare. Colston might be one. To a lesser extent, guys like Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, and Chris Chambers also fit this mold. They weren't 1,000 yard receivers as rookies, but they were instantly effective and they were able to sustain that success.
The Late Bloomer - This is the guy who has 1-3 quiet years before bursting onto the scene in a big way. Chad Johnson, Santana Moss, Javon Walker, and Plaxico Burress are some good recent examples. They looked like busts, but eventually became stars. Bernard Berrian could be headed in this direction.
The Fraud - This is the fluke player whose smooth transition to the NFL causes premature optimism that eventually proves to be misguided. Rod Gardner, Antonio Bryant, and Koren Robinson are good examples. Greg Jennings might eventually prove to be a fraud. Michael Clayton looks more and more like a fraud with each passing week.
The Bust - The total bust. Guys like Rashaun Woods, Freddie Mitchell, and Tyrone Calico are good examples. They never made any kind of impact at all. Their FF value dropped almost constantly throughout their NFL careers.
Now here's the problem: It's very difficult to tell which group a player belongs in if you only have 1-2 seasons of data to go by. Santana Moss and Javon Walker looked like busts after their first two seasons. They turned out to be late bloomers. Rod Gardner and Michael Clayton looked like instant stars after their rookie years. They turned out to be frauds.
So while I do think it's useful to consider on-field performance, you never really know about a player until you know about a player. Sometimes the early returns are indicative of future outcomes. Sometimes they're not. Sometimes inferior players develop faster than other players who actually have a lot more ability.
I'm not hearing much buzz about Ted Ginn, Robert Meachem, and Sidney Rice. None of them seem poised to make an impact as a rookie. Nevertheless, I'll be surprised if they all turn out to be busts.
On the flipside, I'm hearing a lot of buzz about Mike Walker, James Jones, Laurent Robinson, and Jacoby Jones. Nevertheless, I'll be surprised if they all turn out to be legit starters in the NFL.
The million dollar question is how do you figure out which guys are stars/late bloomers/frauds/busts. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be any one obvious answer.
This is probably the most wide open WR group I've ever seen. Almost every WR drafted on the first day seems to have a legitimate chance of eventually becoming an NFL starter. Only return specialist Yamon Figurs looks like a complete afterthought. At the same time, I can honestly say that none of the WRs in the draft outside of CJ look like mortal locks for success. They all have at least one major wart.
The only WR in this year's group that I have on more than two of my dynasty teams is Laurent Robinson, who I have on four out of my five dynasty squads. Certainly I saw something in his numbers, performance, and profile that led me to value him substantially higher than where the majority of my leaguemates valued him. So I'm more inclined to accept the early buzz on him as valid since it jives with what I already suspected of his skills.
On the flipside, I never thought much of James Jones and Mike Walker. Neither guy looks like a bum to me, but I didn't see anything about them that warranted extreme excitement. So while they're receiving a lot of attention right now, I would have a hard time bumping them up above the likes of Meachem, Bowe, Rice, Ginn, Davis, and Jarrett.
I'm still in wait-and-see mode with this year's rookie WRs. I'm not rushing out to acquire any of them, and I'm not trying to dump any of the ones that I've already drafted. As they continue to play football and provide us with data, I'll continue to evaluate them and try to decide which ones look like good buys at their price and which ones should be avoided.
But I'm not anointing James Jones the next Joe Horn just yet and I'm not ready to send Sidney Rice to the scrap heap. There's a lot of games left to be played.