Not Kicking to Hester is the Wrong Strategy (1 Viewer)

[tombonneau]

Seems to me that teams would be better off kicking to Hester and actually, you know, working on their special teams coverage and tackling, than sacrificing field position on every single kick.As bad as the Bears O is, you start them at their own 40 every play, they'll probably score more often than not.In fact, both games where teams kicked away from Hester (GB, PHI) the opposing team lost.Found this piece that sort of supports this:

1. No returnIf Devin Hester would like to see the football again, he might need to ask a court for visitation rights. Nobody wants to kick it to him anymore.Hester scored six times on returns as a rookie last year, helping power the Chicago Bears to the Super Bowl, where he brought back the opening kickoff for a touchdown. He has three touchdowns (two on punt returns, one on a kickoff) this year, and opposing teams appear no longer willing to tempt fate and risk the big play. They kick away from him, they kick out of bounds, they make a point of not giving up points by allowing the ball to come to him.“That’s something we’re just going to have to live with,” coach Lovie Smith said.It could be worse.A 27-yard punt out of bounds set up a go-ahead field goal for the Bears against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, and the Eagles netted an average of 28 yards on their four punts. They also had a kickoff go out of bounds, handing the Bears possession at the 40. Hester didn’t touch the ball on a kick or a punt and was held without a return yard for the first time. Still, the directed (or misdirected) kicking had some benefit.”It gave our offense good field position. I’ll take that any day,” Hester said.There’s nothing the Bears can do to make anyone boot the ball down the middle of the field. But if Hester works less on returns, he can perhaps do more lining up at wide receiver. He had three catches for 41 yards against the Eagles, including two for 30 on the 97-yard drive that won the game with nine seconds left. Entering Sunday, he’d had two receptions as his conversion to receiver continues.The Bears can set immediate and modest goals and then aim higher if warranted. They host the Detroit Lions on Sunday, and a victory would let them go into their bye at 4-4.

Honestly. You'd rather be averaging 28 yards per punt and kicking the ball out of bounds than risking a Hester return?I saw the stat for Hester, and it's pretty silly, something like 8-9% of returns for TDs.However, I'd wager that a team starting with the ball at the 40 yard line has a higher percentage chance of a TD than that. In fact, I'd wager that a team has a 35-40% chance if not greater of scoring (either FG or TD) from that spot on the field.So teams can keep kicking away from Hester, but it's only going to increase the Bears chances of beating them.

 

[seatownfavorite]

Interesting strategy. I might throw in there, for the sake of argument, to go ahead and kick to him if the Bears defense has been on the field a lot because if he does return one they go right back out there without a real breather.

 

[Pipes]

Seems to me that teams would be better off kicking to Hester and actually, you know, working on their special teams coverage and tackling, than sacrificing field position on every single kick.As bad as the Bears O is, you start them at their own 40 every play, they'll probably score more often than not.In fact, both games where teams kicked away from Hester (GB, PHI) the opposing team lost.Found this piece that sort of supports this:

1. No returnIf Devin Hester would like to see the football again, he might need to ask a court for visitation rights. Nobody wants to kick it to him anymore.Hester scored six times on returns as a rookie last year, helping power the Chicago Bears to the Super Bowl, where he brought back the opening kickoff for a touchdown. He has three touchdowns (two on punt returns, one on a kickoff) this year, and opposing teams appear no longer willing to tempt fate and risk the big play. They kick away from him, they kick out of bounds, they make a point of not giving up points by allowing the ball to come to him.“That’s something we’re just going to have to live with,” coach Lovie Smith said.It could be worse.A 27-yard punt out of bounds set up a go-ahead field goal for the Bears against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, and the Eagles netted an average of 28 yards on their four punts. They also had a kickoff go out of bounds, handing the Bears possession at the 40. Hester didn’t touch the ball on a kick or a punt and was held without a return yard for the first time. Still, the directed (or misdirected) kicking had some benefit.”It gave our offense good field position. I’ll take that any day,” Hester said.There’s nothing the Bears can do to make anyone boot the ball down the middle of the field. But if Hester works less on returns, he can perhaps do more lining up at wide receiver. He had three catches for 41 yards against the Eagles, including two for 30 on the 97-yard drive that won the game with nine seconds left. Entering Sunday, he’d had two receptions as his conversion to receiver continues.The Bears can set immediate and modest goals and then aim higher if warranted. They host the Detroit Lions on Sunday, and a victory would let them go into their bye at 4-4.

Honestly. You'd rather be averaging 28 yards per punt and kicking the ball out of bounds than risking a Hester return?I saw the stat for Hester, and it's pretty silly, something like 8-9% of returns for TDs.However, I'd wager that a team starting with the ball at the 40 yard line has a higher percentage chance of a TD than that. In fact, I'd wager that a team has a 35-40% chance if not greater of scoring (either FG or TD) from that spot on the field.So teams can keep kicking away from Hester, but it's only going to increase the Bears chances of beating them.

And how many times did Hester get the ball to the 40 on returns? I hear what you're saying but I'd still rather make the Bears go 60 yards than give someone like Hester a chance not only to score a TD, but to change the momentum of the game.The Bears beat the Packers because of Favre's interception, Woodson's fumbled punt return and James Jones 2 fumbles. Turnovers won that game for the Bears not the fact the Packers kicked away from Hester.

 

[John Mamula]

they're not kicking away from Hester. they're kicking away from spiders on the field.

 

[JaxBill]

As an Eagles fan, I applauded the strategy. The execution of said strategy, especially in the directional punting, was lacking.

 

[turleyfan]

Lost in all this discussion about Hester always taking it to the house is the fact that he is also quite a fumbler. Kicking it out of bounds denies you the chance of recovering his fumbled returns.

 

[tombonneau]

And how many times did Hester get the ball to the 40 on returns?

Just checked and Hester is only averaging 24 yd per KR. Ranking him like 39 in the league. And that's with a long TD thrown in there. Punts, I agree, he's a lot more dangerous and if you are in the situation to directionally punt out of bounds without setting the Bears up with great field position you do it.But to kick away on KRs is idiotic.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I was angry that the Packers didn't kick to Hester and believe it was one of the primary reasons they lost the game. With Griese making his first start at Lambeau field I think there's no question you kick away and tell your coverage team to do its job. The lame pooch kickoffs send the wrong message, especially at home.

 

[CrossEyed]

Interesting strategy. I might throw in there, for the sake of argument, to go ahead and kick to him if the Bears defense has been on the field a lot because if he does return one they go right back out there without a real breather.

Yeah, this is excellent strategy.

 

[timintey]

And how many times did Hester get the ball to the 40 on returns?

Just checked and Hester is only averaging 24 yd per KR. Ranking him like 39 in the league. And that's with a long TD thrown in there. Punts, I agree, he's a lot more dangerous and if you are in the situation to directionally punt out of bounds without setting the Bears up with great field position you do it.But to kick away on KRs is idiotic.

No reason for a punter not to be able to punt the ball 40 yard OB. I'd still KO to him though...

 

[greedygoat]

Will Marinelli choose to kick to him this weekend after Hester returned a KO 94 yards for a TD on them less than a month ago?

 

[Torque666]

I was angry that the Packers didn't kick to Hester and believe it was one of the primary reasons they lost the game. With Griese making his first start at Lambeau field I think there's no question you kick away and tell your coverage team to do its job. The lame pooch kickoffs send the wrong message, especially at home.

Your nuts, its almost laughable hearing you say that. Try 4 Fumbles a really really BAD Pick by favre and really bad second half play calling. The kick away from hester worked great for them.

 

[GroveDiesel]

And how many times did Hester get the ball to the 40 on returns?

Just checked and Hester is only averaging 24 yd per KR. Ranking him like 39 in the league. And that's with a long TD thrown in there. Punts, I agree, he's a lot more dangerous and if you are in the situation to directionally punt out of bounds without setting the Bears up with great field position you do it.But to kick away on KRs is idiotic.

I've been pointing this out for a while. He's MUCH more dangerous returning punts than kickoffs. And either way, he fumbles so often that good special teams units can take advantage of that. I'm not sure that anyone has done this, but I'd be interested to see where the teams that Hester has returned kicks for TDs against rank in special teams coverage. My guess is that he takes advantage of the bad coverage teams.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I was angry that the Packers didn't kick to Hester and believe it was one of the primary reasons they lost the game. With Griese making his first start at Lambeau field I think there's no question you kick away and tell your coverage team to do its job. The lame pooch kickoffs send the wrong message, especially at home.

Your nuts, its almost laughable hearing you say that. Try 4 Fumbles a really really BAD Pick by favre and really bad second half play calling. The kick away from hester worked great for them.

Field position was huge in that game, which is why the pooch kickoffs were "one of the primary reasons they lost the game". Kicking short consistently gave the Bears the ball near the 40 yd line to start their drives. Obviously not suggesting it was the only reason or the most important factor. No reasonable fan would criticize the play calling in the Bear game after seeing McCarthy's press conference the following day.

 

[thayman]

Since the start of 2006 Season Event/Win Percentage is

Interception Return for TD (79%)

Returned Punt for TD (64%)

Fumble Return for TD (64%)

Blocked FG (49%)

Return Kickoff for TD (41%)

This was the stat they put up during the Skins Cards game that I found interesting. It really changes the game, I'd rather give you a shorter field.

 

[PainTrain]

Since the start of 2006 Season Event/Win Percentage is

Interception Return for TD (79%)

Returned Punt for TD (64%)

Fumble Return for TD (64%)

Blocked FG (49%)

Return Kickoff for TD (41%)

This was the stat they put up during the Skins Cards game that I found interesting. It really changes the game, I'd rather give you a shorter field.

Wait... so if I'm reading this right, you're actually LESS likely to win games in which you block a field goal or return a kickoff?

 

[tombonneau]

Since the start of 2006 Season Event/Win Percentage is

Interception Return for TD (79%)

Returned Punt for TD (64%)

Fumble Return for TD (64%)

Blocked FG (49%)

Return Kickoff for TD (41%)

This was the stat they put up during the Skins Cards game that I found interesting. It really changes the game, I'd rather give you a shorter field.

Wait... so if I'm reading this right, you're actually LESS likely to win games in which you block a field goal or return a kickoff?

Exactly. The fact that there is a 59% chance you will lose the game by scoring a KO for a TD should tell you it's dumb to not kickoff to somebody.Of course, I have no idea how they broke down this data and if it's only based on 1.5 seasons of data probably not all that conclusive.

Either way, I'm sure the reason you have <50% chance of winning when you return a KO is because it would indicate the other team keeps scoring and kicking off. Potentially ...

 

[PsychoMan]

Since the start of 2006 Season Event/Win Percentage is

Interception Return for TD (79%)

Returned Punt for TD (64%)

Fumble Return for TD (64%)

Blocked FG (49%)

Return Kickoff for TD (41%)

This was the stat they put up during the Skins Cards game that I found interesting. It really changes the game, I'd rather give you a shorter field.

I'd be hesitant to draw many conclusions from this data.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Since the start of 2006 Season Event/Win Percentage is

Interception Return for TD (79%)

Returned Punt for TD (64%)

Fumble Return for TD (64%)

Blocked FG (49%)

Return Kickoff for TD (41%)

This was the stat they put up during the Skins Cards game that I found interesting. It really changes the game, I'd rather give you a shorter field.

Wait... so if I'm reading this right, you're actually LESS likely to win games in which you block a field goal or return a kickoff?

That actually makes a lot of sense when you think about it, that teams who did one of the two are more likely to lose the game.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Since the start of 2006 Season Event/Win Percentage is

Interception Return for TD (79%)

Returned Punt for TD (64%)

Fumble Return for TD (64%)

Blocked FG (49%)

Return Kickoff for TD (41%)

This was the stat they put up during the Skins Cards game that I found interesting. It really changes the game, I'd rather give you a shorter field.

Wait... so if I'm reading this right, you're actually LESS likely to win games in which you block a field goal or return a kickoff?

This makes sense actually. returning kickoff is the lowest win percentage at 41%. If you're kicking off, you just scored a TD or FG (unless its start of game or start of 2nd half) Therefore when the opposing team returns the kickoff for TD it just balances out the scoreboard. An INT for TD is the worst...it can be a 14 point swing on the scoreboard (your team drives down inside the redzone, then a pick goes the other way for 7...that is a killer thus the 79% win rate for the team who has a DB that can "take it to the house"!!!!I'd like to see the % win rate for a team who blocks a FG and scores a TD. I'd bet that's up there with INT for TD since its an instantaneous 10 point scoreboard swing (assuming the FG was a chipshot).

 

[NatronIsMean]

I agree with this post. As a Bears fan, I was LOVING them kicking away. I'll start at the 40 all day ANYtime. Field position (both 40 for us and pinning the opponent deep) is much worse than the risk of a Hester TD, IMO.

 

[jagerbomb]

I think people put too much emphasis on the fact that your own 40 is "really good field position". This probably stems from the fact that touchbacks used to be a given and teams would normally have to start from the 20. Since they moved kickoffs back 10 yards and introduced the k ball, average starting position on kickoffs is a lot better than the 20, probably closer to the 30, so letting the other team start on the 40 isn't as big of a penalty as it used to be.

I'd be interested in seeing the average points scored per drive when starting on the 30 compared to the same info for starting on the 40. My guess that it's much less than 1 point.

 

[tombonneau]

I'd be interested in seeing the average points scored per drive when starting on the 30 compared to the same info for starting on the 40. My guess that it's much less than 1 point.

I'd be interested in seeing this data as well. But being lazy and unintelligent, I am in a poor position to procure it.

 

[jagerbomb]

It's amazing to me how NFL coaches don't use stats to figure this stuff out more.

I remember seeing a study by a math professor that calculated whether teams should go for it or punt on 4th down. It took everything into account including the strength of the offense and defense involved.

The study concluded that above average offenses against average defenses should be going for it on 4th and 1 from almost any field position outside their own 20. When they told NFL coaches about it they refuted it with "that guy has never played football before so I'm not listening to him".

 

[tombonneau]

It's amazing to me how NFL coaches don't use stats to figure this stuff out more.I remember seeing a study by a math professor that calculated whether teams should go for it or punt on 4th down. It took everything into account including the strength of the offense and defense involved.The study concluded that above average offenses against average defenses should be going for it on 4th and 1 from almost any field position outside their own 20. When they told NFL coaches about it they refuted it with "that guy has never played football before so I'm not listening to him".

I remember this. It was a study by Stanford (?) I think. It's no mistake that some of the most successful coaches also go for it a lot on 4th down. I know Belichick goes for it a lot, as did Parcells. But you're right, it's all simple statistical cost/benefit risk vs. reward analysis for a lot of these scenarios.

 

[boubucarow]

And how many times did Hester get the ball to the 40 on returns?

Just checked and Hester is only averaging 24 yd per KR. Ranking him like 39 in the league. And that's with a long TD thrown in there. Punts, I agree, he's a lot more dangerous and if you are in the situation to directionally punt out of bounds without setting the Bears up with great field position you do it.

But to kick away on KRs is idiotic.

No reason for a punter not to be able to punt the ball 40 yard OB. I'd still KO to him though...

If every punter could do that, then almost every punter would do it every time they punt. A 40 yard net punt is a very good punt. But if any punter is trying to kick a ball out of bounds at a specific point, he will often be off by more than 5 yards. Of course, that also explains why so few punters can hit the coffin corner.

 

[GregR_2]

...Honestly. You'd rather be averaging 28 yards per punt and kicking the ball out of bounds than risking a Hester return?

Hester averages 19.4 yards per return. So to get the same 28 net yards as kicking it out of bounds you would have to have a punter who regularly kicks it 47.4 yards. Only 6 punters in the NFL this year have an average greater than that. That's also not taking into account that if you kick it out he has a near 0% chance of getting a TD on the play while he has the afforemented chance (7-8%?) of getting one if you kick to him.So yes, the numbers you gave say you shouldn't punt to him under most cases. If I have an excellent kick coverage unit maybe I do, but even then I try to pin him on the sideline and am fine if it goes out a little short.

 

[tombonneau]

...Honestly. You'd rather be averaging 28 yards per punt and kicking the ball out of bounds than risking a Hester return?

Hester averages 19.4 yards per return. So to get the same 28 net yards as kicking it out of bounds you would have to have a punter who regularly kicks it 47.4 yards. Only 6 punters in the NFL this year have an average greater than that. That's also not taking into account that if you kick it out he has a near 0% chance of getting a TD on the play while he has the afforemented chance (7-8%?) of getting one if you kick to him.So yes, the numbers you gave say you shouldn't punt to him under most cases. If I have an excellent kick coverage unit maybe I do, but even then I try to pin him on the sideline and am fine if it goes out a little short.

Through the course of the thread, I've come to the conclusion that you can justify not punting to him but should absolutely kick off to him.Also, I find it hard to believe if teams continued punting to him he would keep that specious 19 yd average. It would likely normalize to the low teens which is where it was last year (12.8). I simply don't believe you should never punt to someone who averages 12-13 yards a punt return.

 

[BoltBacker]

And how many times did Hester get the ball to the 40 on returns?

Just checked and Hester is only averaging 24 yd per KR. Ranking him like 39 in the league. And that's with a long TD thrown in there. Punts, I agree, he's a lot more dangerous and if you are in the situation to directionally punt out of bounds without setting the Bears up with great field position you do it.But to kick away on KRs is idiotic.

Did you also check his PR avg? He's averaging over 19y/r so if the average punt is 45 yards you're talking about 26 yards net with a strong possibility of a TD(2/20). I think the real story in all this is directional punting isn't just a dying art, it's a dead art. I'm not sure why. Maybe too many punters are being judged on average length of their punts and nothing else. It should be brought back. Never really understood why people make a huge deal when a punter puts special spin on the ball right on the one yard line...... if he puts the ball on the one yard line in the coffin corner you don't even have to count on a special team guy making a good play just to keep it out of the endzone.

 

[BoltBacker]

...Honestly. You'd rather be averaging 28 yards per punt and kicking the ball out of bounds than risking a Hester return?

Hester averages 19.4 yards per return. So to get the same 28 net yards as kicking it out of bounds you would have to have a punter who regularly kicks it 47.4 yards. Only 6 punters in the NFL this year have an average greater than that. That's also not taking into account that if you kick it out he has a near 0% chance of getting a TD on the play while he has the afforemented chance (7-8%?) of getting one if you kick to him.So yes, the numbers you gave say you shouldn't punt to him under most cases. If I have an excellent kick coverage unit maybe I do, but even then I try to pin him on the sideline and am fine if it goes out a little short.

Woops, missed this one posted while I was typing. I think Hester is 2/20 for TD's on PR so that makes the point even stronger.

 

[tombonneau]

Someone wrote into the TMQ mailbag with an excellent point in response to Easterbrook proposing no one ever kick to Hester. It points to % chance of a returner fumbling, a line of thought brought up by a previous poster on this thread:

I proposed that NFL teams should routinely punt out of bounds, not just against Devin Hester but against any returner -- trading a slightly lower net of field position for never allowing a touchdown return. Marissa Stupca of Philadelphia countered, "Punting out of bounds certainly appears to have its advantages as it removes the possibility for a touchdown return by the receiving team. Following Week 7 of the NFL season, there were seven TD returns, an average of one per week. Simply kicking the ball out of bounds would eliminate these seven touchdowns. However, by doing so, the kicking team also eliminates any possibility for the other side of the coin -- the seemingly inevitable muff or fumbled return. As of Week 7, there were 23 muffs or fumbles on returns, an average of three per week. The punting team recovered the ball on 10 of those occurrences, thus making recoveries 1.5 times more likely than touchdown returns. Only once did the recovery not lead to a score (the Falcons threw an interception deep in the opposing team's territory) and resulting drives tallied a total of 43 points with an average starting field position of the 34-yard line. Even the venerable Devin Hester has fumbled the ball twice this season on returns, though the Bears recovered on both instances."

 

[Torque666]

I was angry that the Packers didn't kick to Hester and believe it was one of the primary reasons they lost the game. With Griese making his first start at Lambeau field I think there's no question you kick away and tell your coverage team to do its job. The lame pooch kickoffs send the wrong message, especially at home.

Your nuts, its almost laughable hearing you say that. Try 4 Fumbles a really really BAD Pick by favre and really bad second half play calling. The kick away from hester worked great for them.

Field position was huge in that game, which is why the pooch kickoffs were "one of the primary reasons they lost the game". Kicking short consistently gave the Bears the ball near the 40 yd line to start their drives. Obviously not suggesting it was the only reason or the most important factor. No reasonable fan would criticize the play calling in the Bear game after seeing McCarthy's press conference the following day.

No way, if the 4 fumbles, 1 pick dont happen(one could even mention the blown call on the ill. formation on the bears FG) , its a done game. Field Position played a very minimul(if at all) role in GB losing that game.

 

[428143]

And how many times did Hester get the ball to the 40 on returns?

Just checked and Hester is only averaging 24 yd per KR. Ranking him like 39 in the league. And that's with a long TD thrown in there. Punts, I agree, he's a lot more dangerous and if you are in the situation to directionally punt out of bounds without setting the Bears up with great field position you do it.But to kick away on KRs is idiotic.

I've been pointing this out for a while. He's MUCH more dangerous returning punts than kickoffs. And either way, he fumbles so often that good special teams units can take advantage of that. I'm not sure that anyone has done this, but I'd be interested to see where the teams that Hester has returned kicks for TDs against rank in special teams coverage. My guess is that he takes advantage of the bad coverage teams.

Athletes like Hester can burn the best special teams unit/strategy. Fumbling may or may not be a problem in the future, but it comes with the territory with KR/PR'ers. I wouldn't kick to him, but if the Bears suddenly develop a potent offense, using the "avoid Hester" strategy may not be the best move.

 

[trader jake]

I don't want my team kicking to Devin Hester. I'd prefer that mediocre Bears offense go the length of the field to get their points. The math breakdown can't account for the emotional swing that occurs every time Hester takes one to the house (or even has a great return). The momentum of the entire game swings. Even if the punts only net 30 yards and/or the short kickoffs result in the offense starting at the 35.