Not with a ten foot pole (1 Viewer)

[identikit]

1. The premise of this list is dumb, IMO. There is nobody that's untouchable. It should be a "not-anywhere-near-their-ADP-so-I-highly-doubt-I'll-end-up-with-them" list.

2. I was surprised to see Maroney mentioned. I think he and Forsett will be two of the best guys to get this year, allowing you to go STUD RB if you're in the top 6 or so (AD/CJ/RR/MJD/Gore/Turner) then load up on WRs and a top QB before taking both relatively late.

3. Devin Thomas probably goes way too high to get. Although he could also be going low. He's a big gamble this year. I don't think I'll have Randy Moss unless he falls quite a ways.

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

5. Santonio Holmes is a guy I won't have anymore. And I had been the biggest guy on Santonio for a year and a half or so before the trade to New York. Just don't think that's a good place for him this year. Perhaps next year, or 2012.

more to come later...

I'm not huge on saying past stats are 100% indicative of future stats, but that's an amazing stat right there on Ryan. Wow. No QB has ever done this? Have any come close, i.e. came in 11th? I'd love to see more details on this one.....

That statement is not accurate. Kerry Collins, Steve DeBerg, Vinny Testaverde are examples.

Thanks David....Sounded unbelievable.

 

[Instinctive]

1. The premise of this list is dumb, IMO. There is nobody that's untouchable. It should be a "not-anywhere-near-their-ADP-so-I-highly-doubt-I'll-end-up-with-them" list.

2. I was surprised to see Maroney mentioned. I think he and Forsett will be two of the best guys to get this year, allowing you to go STUD RB if you're in the top 6 or so (AD/CJ/RR/MJD/Gore/Turner) then load up on WRs and a top QB before taking both relatively late.

3. Devin Thomas probably goes way too high to get. Although he could also be going low. He's a big gamble this year. I don't think I'll have Randy Moss unless he falls quite a ways.

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

5. Santonio Holmes is a guy I won't have anymore. And I had been the biggest guy on Santonio for a year and a half or so before the trade to New York. Just don't think that's a good place for him this year. Perhaps next year, or 2012.

more to come later...

I'm not huge on saying past stats are 100% indicative of future stats, but that's an amazing stat right there on Ryan. Wow. No QB has ever done this? Have any come close, i.e. came in 11th? I'd love to see more details on this one.....

That statement is not accurate. Kerry Collins, Steve DeBerg, Vinny Testaverde are examples.

Thanks David....Sounded unbelievable.

Here's a link to the study, I suppose I should have said last decade, or "since the widespread advant of FF"http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...=522475&hl=

#3- No QB who played two "full" seasons (14+ games) without a top-10 finish ever went on to finish in the top 10 at any point during the entire last decade. Remember- a top-10 finish isn't particularly impressive when you play a full 16 games. In any given season, you might only have 20 QBs play 14+ games (this year, only 23 QBs managed the feat), so a top 10 finish is merely "top 50%".

 

[FUBAR]

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

I'm not huge on saying past stats are 100% indicative of future stats, but that's an amazing stat right there on Ryan. Wow. No QB has ever done this? Have any come close, i.e. came in 11th? I'd love to see more details on this one.....

That statement is not accurate. Kerry Collins, Steve DeBerg, Vinny Testaverde are examples.

Thanks David....Sounded unbelievable.

Even more so as one of the guys who did it is already mentioned in this thread - Roethlisberger.

 

[FUBAR]

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

#3- No QB who played two "full" seasons (14+ games) without a top-10 finish ever went on to finish in the top 10 at any point during the entire last decade. Remember- a top-10 finish isn't particularly impressive when you play a full 16 games. In any given season, you might only have 20 QBs play 14+ games (this year, only 23 QBs managed the feat), so a top 10 finish is merely "top 50%".

So which is it? ETA: Ryan did play 14 and 16, so he fits in the true stat but I'm still not knocking a guy for starting a lot of games as a rookie.

 

[Instinctive]

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

#3- No QB who played two "full" seasons (14+ games) without a top-10 finish ever went on to finish in the top 10 at any point during the entire last decade. Remember- a top-10 finish isn't particularly impressive when you play a full 16 games. In any given season, you might only have 20 QBs play 14+ games (this year, only 23 QBs managed the feat), so a top 10 finish is merely "top 50%".

So which is it? ETA: Ryan did play 14 and 16, so he fits in the true stat but I'm still not knocking a guy for starting a lot of games as a rookie.

It's 14. The study was just long enough ago that I didnt remember it correctly. aperbag:

 

[GoBears84]

Santana Moss -- as others have said, 2 great games and 14 dud games every year.Lee Evans -- same deal as Moss, but with a worse QB.Arizona QBs -- no reason to have to deal with that in a redraft.Washington RBs -- Skeletor + they're all old = do not want the headache.

Lee Evans is always tantalizing in the later rounds and never worth the pick...

 

[Stealthycat]

Washington RB's with Shannahan there.

JAX WR's ....... I know, Sim-Walker but I don't want to touch him with Garrard there

STL offense with the exception of SJax

 

[Tigerbot Hesh]

LenDale White is lurking in the middle of yahoo's default draft list. He'll be drafted by plenty of teams that use the yahoo autodrafter and don't exclude him from their lists.

Every mock draft I run with the draft dominator, it tries to give me Lee Evans. No thanks, DD.

 

[Sylira21]

QB - Eli Manning. Last year looked like a total outlier to his normal stats, and the Giants can't possibly be that bad running the ball and on defense again. Can they?

RB - Ronnie Brown. Too many times injured, no thanks.

WR - Hines Ward. The only Steeler I want any part of is Mendenhall

TE - Greg Olsen. Never draft a Martz TE.

 

[Truman]

1. The premise of this list is dumb, IMO. There is nobody that's untouchable. It should be a "not-anywhere-near-their-ADP-so-I-highly-doubt-I'll-end-up-with-them" list.

2. I was surprised to see Maroney mentioned. I think he and Forsett will be two of the best guys to get this year, allowing you to go STUD RB if you're in the top 6 or so (AD/CJ/RR/MJD/Gore/Turner) then load up on WRs and a top QB before taking both relatively late.

3. Devin Thomas probably goes way too high to get. Although he could also be going low. He's a big gamble this year. I don't think I'll have Randy Moss unless he falls quite a ways.

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

5. Santonio Holmes is a guy I won't have anymore. And I had been the biggest guy on Santonio for a year and a half or so before the trade to New York. Just don't think that's a good place for him this year. Perhaps next year, or 2012.

more to come later...

I'm not huge on saying past stats are 100% indicative of future stats, but that's an amazing stat right there on Ryan. Wow. No QB has ever done this? Have any come close, i.e. came in 11th? I'd love to see more details on this one.....

Not sure on that stat I am sure no QB in NFL history has put up as better numbers as a rookie and also sure his TD numbers went up in year 2 despite missing a couple games. May be an interesting case study to see if rookie starters who put up record numbers ever develop as well as those who lose their jobs and bench-warmers who step in (Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Romo, Schaub)

 

[SoopaCee]

Usually don't exclude any players potentially draftable if the price is right.

I agree in theory but for the purposes of discussion and this post.........Owen Daniels (I think he is done and once we get a long look at James Casey there could be no turning back.....*fingers crossed says the Casey owner*)Steven Jackson (I offloaded him in all of my dynasty leagues during the off season because I don't see him ever living up to his ADP again)Dwayne Bowe (perennially overrated and until he proves himself, I'm not going there)

nice....all guys im high on

 

[SoopaCee]

any wash rb's....unless i can get portis in the last round

any titans wr's/Te....unless scaife breaks his head and Cook is the main TE

any ne rb

julius jones

santana moss

lee evans

mendenhall (not at his current adp)

jamaal charles ^see above

kevin kolb

flacco

cedric benson

mcfadden

mike sims walker

vjax

 

[SoopaCee]

Santana Moss -- as others have said, 2 great games and 14 dud games every year.Lee Evans -- same deal as Moss, but with a worse QB.Arizona QBs -- no reason to have to deal with that in a redraft.Washington RBs -- Skeletor + they're all old = do not want the headache.

Lee Evans is always tantalizing in the later rounds and never worth the pick...

i know every year i can draft him as my #4 wr....and im like damn, he is a #1, should i, should i.....with t.o. there he will be open more blah blah, no one else there is proven, he has great speed.....#### lee evans!

 

[Grahamburn]

any wash rb's....unless i can get portis in the last round

any titans wr's/Te....unless scaife breaks his head and Cook is the main TE

any ne rb

julius jones

santana moss

lee evans

mendenhall (not at his current adp)

jamaal charles ^see above

kevin kolb

flacco

cedric benson

mcfadden

mike sims walker

vjax

I like all of the bolded at their ADPs. I guess that's why this hobby is so addictive?!Washington has obviously made several positive moves for their offense. Portis and Moss can improve significantly with the addition of McNabb, Shanahan, and the overhaul on the offensive line. Portis as a RB4 is gravy. You may not need him if he busts, and if he bounces back you're sitting on a fantasy goldmine.

I'll take Lee Evans' talent as a WR4 every single day of the week.

After the first 5 or 6 backs and Andre Johnson, who's left?! All of the players around that spot in the draft have question marks. Mendenhall is in line for a lot of carries, is a good receiver out of the backfield, and looks primed to be one of the few bell cow backs in the league.

Jamaal Charles as a RB2 is very nice. I've read alot of the threads around here discounting his end of year run in 2009 because he faced weak defenses. Well, he faces ALL of those weak defenses again in 2010 in addition to a few more cupcakes. Denver, Oakland, SD all twice, Cleveland, Buffalo, the AFC South, and NFC West. His schedule is a breeze and we could see him running wild again in 2010. 250 touches for him could turn into alot of fantasy points.

What's wrong with Benson? The guy is guaranteed 320+ carries, all the goalline looks, and can be had as a RB2 late 2nd or early 3rd. Pairing him up with a first tier RB and second tier WR1 is a nice start to any fantasy team.

MSW looked pretty beastly at times in 2009. He tailed off at the end of the year because of injuries. He's in a contract year, Garrard loves throwing to him, he seems to be very motivated, and he has been confirmed for Larry Fitzgerald's WR camp. Good WR2, great WR3.

 

[Instinctive]

Not sure on that stat I am sure no QB in NFL history has put up as better numbers as a rookie and also sure his TD numbers went up in year 2 despite missing a couple games. May be an interesting case study to see if rookie starters who put up record numbers ever develop as well as those who lose their jobs and bench-warmers who step in (Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Romo, Schaub)

I want to say that Marino had a better rookie year, with 20:6 in only 9 games started, back in 1983.Peyton Manning threw for 300 more yards and ten more TDs, but also more than twice as many interceptions as Ryan (28 to 11)I personally would consider both of those as "better" but it's incredibly subjective.

 

[ahill84006]

Brandon Jacobs...have had him on my roster 2 times in the last 3 years. Underachieved both times. Never again.

 

[steelcityman]

Is the loss of love for Randy Moss due to not having a proven WR2 to start the season? Moss, I believe, will be playing for a contract. I see him being near the best of the WRs this year.

Bowe, I have the chance to keep him or H Nicks this year. I cant decide this early, have to wait until camps start.

I dont think Matt Ryan is a top FFL QB because he is 1) a QB with a running team and 2) he really doesnt have the great WRs, White is solid but not a top tier WR IMO. Good, heady QB, but lacks the team style/players to be a star in FFL.

I am crossing S Holmes off my list now.

 

[rizzler]

I dont think Matt Ryan is a top FFL QB because he is 1) a QB with a running team and 2) he really doesnt have the great WRs, White is solid but not a top tier WR IMO.

1200+, 1300+ and 1100+ seasons coupled with 6, 7 and 11 TDs respectively... Roddy White isn't elite?one spot left in my pool...

 

[Team Canada]

Thanks for the chatter. I'll choose my words more carefully or add a definition. Not with a ten foot pole means not even a consideration with in a round of his ADP. Yes if Forsett, Spiller and Fred were available to me in the 12, 13 and 14th rounds I'd take em. Thanks for the input.

 

[zadok]

Is the loss of love for Randy Moss due to not having a proven WR2 to start the season?

I agree Moss is close to a sure thing, but I don't understand this "Welker is on the pup already" stuff. Sorry for the hijack...

 

[David Yudkin]

Is the loss of love for Randy Moss due to not having a proven WR2 to start the season?

I agree Moss is close to a sure thing, but I don't understand this "Welker is on the pup already" stuff. Sorry for the hijack...

Welker is a guy I would not recommend in a redraft. While he is not yet on the PUP list, that's his likely landing spot.While he has been a partial participant in practice in the early going, from what people tell me he's a long way from being himself. Basically, much slower, not as smooth, and rounding off corners and routes. He's got a ways to go before he will be able to take on actual contact.Once he comes back, if he's like all the other post ACL-tear skills guys, he will not be anywhere near as productive his first year back. Given that Welker's bread and butter is his quickness and elusiveness, those 4 year dump offs may end up 5 yards instead of 12.The last draft I was in (0 PPR redraft league), Welker was taken as the 30th WR off the board. If he does miss the first 6 weeks (and potentially more as NE would have a couple more weeks to activate him) and he did not play up to his normal level, taking him as the 30th WR would be a wasted pick.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Welker....too many questions to draft him where you have to draft him.

Welkers' ADP is the bottom of the 9th round.Depending on your starters he could be worth the price

Well at 9th round I don't have a problem drafting him, however I haven't seen him lasting past the 5th in drafts I have done.

went fifth in my money league draft.

 

[DoubleG]

Welker....too many questions to draft him where you have to draft him.

Welkers' ADP is the bottom of the 9th round.Depending on your starters he could be worth the price

Well at 9th round I don't have a problem drafting him, however I haven't seen him lasting past the 5th in drafts I have done.

went fifth in my money league draft.

For your sake I hope it was to someone else.

 

[zadok]

Is the loss of love for Randy Moss due to not having a proven WR2 to start the season?

I agree Moss is close to a sure thing, but I don't understand this "Welker is on the pup already" stuff. Sorry for the hijack...

Welker is a guy I would not recommend in a redraft. While he is not yet on the PUP list, that's his likely landing spot.While he has been a partial participant in practice in the early going, from what people tell me he's a long way from being himself. Basically, much slower, not as smooth, and rounding off corners and routes. He's got a ways to go before he will be able to take on actual contact.Once he comes back, if he's like all the other post ACL-tear skills guys, he will not be anywhere near as productive his first year back. Given that Welker's bread and butter is his quickness and elusiveness, those 4 year dump offs may end up 5 yards instead of 12.The last draft I was in (0 PPR redraft league), Welker was taken as the 30th WR off the board. If he does miss the first 6 weeks (and potentially more as NE would have a couple more weeks to activate him) and he did not play up to his normal level, taking him as the 30th WR would be a wasted pick.

Pre-season PUP is not the same as in-season, as you know...the speculation has been about the pre-season version. Not that I disagree about him not being 100% this year, but if he's running routes 2.5 months before the season starts, he is not missing any games barring a setback.

 

[David Yudkin]

Is the loss of love for Randy Moss due to not having a proven WR2 to start the season?

I agree Moss is close to a sure thing, but I don't understand this "Welker is on the pup already" stuff. Sorry for the hijack...

Welker is a guy I would not recommend in a redraft. While he is not yet on the PUP list, that's his likely landing spot.While he has been a partial participant in practice in the early going, from what people tell me he's a long way from being himself. Basically, much slower, not as smooth, and rounding off corners and routes. He's got a ways to go before he will be able to take on actual contact.Once he comes back, if he's like all the other post ACL-tear skills guys, he will not be anywhere near as productive his first year back. Given that Welker's bread and butter is his quickness and elusiveness, those 4 year dump offs may end up 5 yards instead of 12.The last draft I was in (0 PPR redraft league), Welker was taken as the 30th WR off the board. If he does miss the first 6 weeks (and potentially more as NE would have a couple more weeks to activate him) and he did not play up to his normal level, taking him as the 30th WR would be a wasted pick.

Pre-season PUP is not the same as in-season, as you know...the speculation has been about the pre-season version. Not that I disagree about him not being 100% this year, but if he's running routes 2.5 months before the season starts, he is not missing any games barring a setback.

I am talking about the regular season PUP list . . . the one where he would miss 6 games. I will have to check procedurally what he would be allowed to do or not do in order to qualify for that list, however.

 

[zadok]

Is the loss of love for Randy Moss due to not having a proven WR2 to start the season?

I agree Moss is close to a sure thing, but I don't understand this "Welker is on the pup already" stuff. Sorry for the hijack...

Welker is a guy I would not recommend in a redraft. While he is not yet on the PUP list, that's his likely landing spot.While he has been a partial participant in practice in the early going, from what people tell me he's a long way from being himself. Basically, much slower, not as smooth, and rounding off corners and routes. He's got a ways to go before he will be able to take on actual contact.Once he comes back, if he's like all the other post ACL-tear skills guys, he will not be anywhere near as productive his first year back. Given that Welker's bread and butter is his quickness and elusiveness, those 4 year dump offs may end up 5 yards instead of 12.The last draft I was in (0 PPR redraft league), Welker was taken as the 30th WR off the board. If he does miss the first 6 weeks (and potentially more as NE would have a couple more weeks to activate him) and he did not play up to his normal level, taking him as the 30th WR would be a wasted pick.

Pre-season PUP is not the same as in-season, as you know...the speculation has been about the pre-season version. Not that I disagree about him not being 100% this year, but if he's running routes 2.5 months before the season starts, he is not missing any games barring a setback.

I am talking about the regular season PUP list . . . the one where he would miss 6 games. I will have to check procedurally what he would be allowed to do or not do in order to qualify for that list, however.

Well he couldnt' be placed on it until the final roster cutdown I believe, so if it does happen it wont be until after drafts are long done. He also can't practice the entire preseason.

 

[rodgers65]

Washington RB's with Shannahan there.

If Shannahan is your reason, that's horrible thinking. I seem to remember a back or two doing fairly well in his tenure with Denver.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Welker....too many questions to draft him where you have to draft him.

Welkers' ADP is the bottom of the 9th round.Depending on your starters he could be worth the price

Well at 9th round I don't have a problem drafting him, however I haven't seen him lasting past the 5th in drafts I have done.

went fifth in my money league draft.

For your sake I hope it was to someone else.

yes. I would consider him starting around round 10 or 11.

 

[FavreCo]

WRs in Tennessee, Denver, Cleveland, Jax (not named Sims-Walker) and Washington.

 

[frogpond11]

Here's my list of players that I probably won't end up with this year because they're going too high for my taste:

Jamaal Charles - I think TJ steals too many TDs, but I do think JC gets some very good yardage numbers due to an easy schedule and ability to break big plays. If only they wouldn't have brought TJ in..I'd be all over some JC..

Beanie Wells - Hightower still too much of a drain and I don't think their offense will be as good with Leinart at QB(less scoring opportunities)

Pierre Garcon - After Wayne/Clark, I think it's too crowded for any of the other WRs to have a ton of value..Garcon, Collie, Anthony Gonzo, etc.

Larry Fitz - I still seeing him go as the 3rd-6th WR off the board and I just really don't see it with Leinart at QB. I think Fitz faces quadruple teams all year..and combine that with Leinart's ineffectiveness to get him the ball and the overall ineffectiveness of the offense and I'm staying away at that high of an ADP. Sounds weird, but I think I'd rather several of the guys(in redraft) going well behind Fitz like Sidney Rice, Roddy White, and maybe even Greg Jennings.

Philip Rivers - if VJAX holds out for significant time or goes elsewhere, that's a huge loss for that passing game. I know he'll still have Gates, Floyd, and a couple of talented receivers out of the backfield..but I just feel like losing VJAX would be a big blow to Rivers' numbers...and I see him going higher than I'm willing to draft him. I'd rather Romo.

Devin Aromashodu - I do feel the CHI passing game will be improved and it could very well be DA that has the big year, but it's just too big of a guessing game for me. I've heard that Hester and Knox are starting..so if I'm going to bank on anybody, it would probably be one of those two.

 

[DoubleG]

Washington RB's with Shannahan there.

If Shannahan is your reason, that's horrible thinking. I seem to remember a back or two doing fairly well in his tenure with Denver.

Ah yes, but the problem isn't that a Washington RB wont rush for 1k - it's which one? With Shanny you'd have to use 4-5 draft slots to make sure you got all the possibilities on your roster.

 

[purestrength]

Washington RB's with Shannahan there.

If Shannahan is your reason, that's horrible thinking. I seem to remember a back or two doing fairly well in his tenure with Denver.

Ah yes, but the problem isn't that a Washington RB wont rush for 1k - it's which one? With Shanny you'd have to use 4-5 draft slots to make sure you got all the possibilities on your roster.

No doubt, Shannahan likes to **** with fantasy owners. But Portis and LJ are falling pretty far in some drafts I've seen. It's almost worth taking a chance on one or both.Then again, I could be wrong.Anyway, it's not like that one year I was drafting Selvin Young in the fifth round and got burned.

 

[kurtrudder]

Welker is a guy I would not recommend in a redraft. While he is not yet on the PUP list, that's his likely landing spot.

While he has been a partial participant in practice in the early going, from what people tell me he's a long way from being himself. Basically, much slower, not as smooth, and rounding off corners and routes. He's got a ways to go before he will be able to take on actual contact.

Once he comes back, if he's like all the other post ACL-tear skills guys, he will not be anywhere near as productive his first year back. Given that Welker's bread and butter is his quickness and elusiveness, those 4 year dump offs may end up 5 yards instead of 12.

The last draft I was in (0 PPR redraft league), Welker was taken as the 30th WR off the board. If he does miss the first 6 weeks (and potentially more as NE would have a couple more weeks to activate him) and he did not play up to his normal level, taking him as the 30th WR would be a wasted pick.

This is good advice. All of the subsequent talk about PUP is a side issue for me. I'm letting someone else take the risk with Welker even without the in season PUP being an issue. He will work his tail off but this season he will not be the same WR we have come to rely on.

 

[DropKick]

David Boston - fool me once, shame on you, fool me 3 times...

THIS is the year.

I heard he was in the best shape of his life!

 

[kurtrudder]

Welker is a guy I would not recommend in a redraft. While he is not yet on the PUP list, that's his likely landing spot.

While he has been a partial participant in practice in the early going, from what people tell me he's a long way from being himself. Basically, much slower, not as smooth, and rounding off corners and routes. He's got a ways to go before he will be able to take on actual contact.

Once he comes back, if he's like all the other post ACL-tear skills guys, he will not be anywhere near as productive his first year back. Given that Welker's bread and butter is his quickness and elusiveness, those 4 year dump offs may end up 5 yards instead of 12.

The last draft I was in (0 PPR redraft league), Welker was taken as the 30th WR off the board. If he does miss the first 6 weeks (and potentially more as NE would have a couple more weeks to activate him) and he did not play up to his normal level, taking him as the 30th WR would be a wasted pick.

This is good advice. All of the subsequent talk about PUP is a side issue for me. I'm letting someone else take the risk with Welker even without the in season PUP being an issue. He will work his tail off but this season he will not be the same WR we have come to rely on.

An interesting article to back up what Yudkin said above.http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-ACL-factor.html

 

[David Yudkin]

Welker is a guy I would not recommend in a redraft. While he is not yet on the PUP list, that's his likely landing spot.

While he has been a partial participant in practice in the early going, from what people tell me he's a long way from being himself. Basically, much slower, not as smooth, and rounding off corners and routes. He's got a ways to go before he will be able to take on actual contact.

Once he comes back, if he's like all the other post ACL-tear skills guys, he will not be anywhere near as productive his first year back. Given that Welker's bread and butter is his quickness and elusiveness, those 4 year dump offs may end up 5 yards instead of 12.

The last draft I was in (0 PPR redraft league), Welker was taken as the 30th WR off the board. If he does miss the first 6 weeks (and potentially more as NE would have a couple more weeks to activate him) and he did not play up to his normal level, taking him as the 30th WR would be a wasted pick.

This is good advice. All of the subsequent talk about PUP is a side issue for me. I'm letting someone else take the risk with Welker even without the in season PUP being an issue. He will work his tail off but this season he will not be the same WR we have come to rely on.

An interesting article to back up what Yudkin said above.http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-ACL-factor.html

I saw an article (can't remember where) that mentioned guys coming back put up production at about 60-65% of their usual numbers once they returned (first year).

 

[Binky The Doormat]

1. The premise of this list is dumb, IMO. There is nobody that's untouchable. It should be a "not-anywhere-near-their-ADP-so-I-highly-doubt-I'll-end-up-with-them" list.

2. I was surprised to see Maroney mentioned. I think he and Forsett will be two of the best guys to get this year, allowing you to go STUD RB if you're in the top 6 or so (AD/CJ/RR/MJD/Gore/Turner) then load up on WRs and a top QB before taking both relatively late.

3. Devin Thomas probably goes way too high to get. Although he could also be going low. He's a big gamble this year. I don't think I'll have Randy Moss unless he falls quite a ways.

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

5. Santonio Holmes is a guy I won't have anymore. And I had been the biggest guy on Santonio for a year and a half or so before the trade to New York. Just don't think that's a good place for him this year. Perhaps next year, or 2012.

more to come later...

I'm not huge on saying past stats are 100% indicative of future stats, but that's an amazing stat right there on Ryan. Wow. No QB has ever done this? Have any come close, i.e. came in 11th? I'd love to see more details on this one.....

That statement is not accurate. Kerry Collins, Steve DeBerg, Vinny Testaverde are examples.

Different question DavidWhat is your take on these comments that Moss isn't likely to perform better than than 4-5 others going in his area. Sure that is always true of anyone at any spot. Do you think that he is the type of guy that will truly make a different kind of effort for his contract year?

...or Matt, I see that you are here in this thread.

 

[TitanicHornet]

Greg Olsen. Dude burnt me in nearly every league last year because I threw all my eggs into the Olsen basket for most leagues at TE. He may prove me wrong this year but I am not willing to draft him and find out.

 

[HITMANMVP96]

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

Ever heard of Troy Aikman.

Best season in 1992 3445/23/14The rest... never more than 3304 and 19 TD'sTroy Aikman was a winning QB... just not in the fantasy world.Matt Ryan 2009 stat line... 2916/22/14

 

[Kit Fisto]

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

Ever heard of Troy Aikman.

Best season in 1992 3445/23/14The rest... never more than 3304 and 19 TD'sTroy Aikman was a winning QB... just not in the fantasy world.Matt Ryan 2009 stat line... 2916/22/14

I'll agree that Aikman was never an "elite" fantasy QB. But I once won a league championship with him as my QB back in '92. Just sayin'...

 

[Tchula]

Tatum Bell (just cause I havent seen a Tatum Bell post in awhile) You know you love it!

 

[RTB1]

1. The premise of this list is dumb, IMO. There is nobody that's untouchable. It should be a "not-anywhere-near-their-ADP-so-I-highly-doubt-I'll-end-up-with-them" list.

2. I was surprised to see Maroney mentioned. I think he and Forsett will be two of the best guys to get this year, allowing you to go STUD RB if you're in the top 6 or so (AD/CJ/RR/MJD/Gore/Turner) then load up on WRs and a top QB before taking both relatively late.

3. Devin Thomas probably goes way too high to get. Although he could also be going low. He's a big gamble this year. I don't think I'll have Randy Moss unless he falls quite a ways.

4. Matt Ryan just isn't a good fantays QB, and nobody who has played at least two seasons of at least 12 games QB and not been in the top 10 at the position either year has EVER been in the top 10. So he won't be on any of my teams.

5. Santonio Holmes is a guy I won't have anymore. And I had been the biggest guy on Santonio for a year and a half or so before the trade to New York. Just don't think that's a good place for him this year. Perhaps next year, or 2012.

more to come later...

I'm not huge on saying past stats are 100% indicative of future stats, but that's an amazing stat right there on Ryan. Wow. No QB has ever done this? Have any come close, i.e. came in 11th? I'd love to see more details on this one.....

That statement is not accurate. Kerry Collins, Steve DeBerg, Vinny Testaverde are examples.

Tommy Maddox?

 

[Raymell McKigney]

Straight from the news feed.......the Our View sums it up perfectly for me why Bowe is at the top of my list.

Chiefs | Bowe struggles with conditioning on first day of Fitzgerald camp Thu Jul 8, 08:12 PMChip Scoggins, of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, reports that "struggled with his conditioning" as the players ran fourteen 100-yard sprints and then four 50-yard runs. "Can you imagine your first day coming back to 14 100s?" Bowe said. "Man, it was like college again. I've never done this intensive competing, conditioning and technique in one day."Our view: Hmmm, Bowe has never done this intensive of a workout in one day before? That quote is very revealing about the level of dedication Bowe has had up to this point in his career. The Fitzgerald camp could light a fire under him, just like it did for Sidney Rice, but this story just confirms some of the beliefs about what has been holding Bowe back.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Straight from the news feed.......the Our View sums it up perfectly for me why Bowe is at the top of my list.

Chiefs | Bowe struggles with conditioning on first day of Fitzgerald camp Thu Jul 8, 08:12 PMChip Scoggins, of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, reports that "struggled with his conditioning" as the players ran fourteen 100-yard sprints and then four 50-yard runs. "Can you imagine your first day coming back to 14 100s?" Bowe said. "Man, it was like college again. I've never done this intensive competing, conditioning and technique in one day."Our view: Hmmm, Bowe has never done this intensive of a workout in one day before? That quote is very revealing about the level of dedication Bowe has had up to this point in his career. The Fitzgerald camp could light a fire under him, just like it did for Sidney Rice, but this story just confirms some of the beliefs about what has been holding Bowe back.

He is at the camp though. Thats a big improvement for him, and it shows that he is trying to become more dedicated. We know he has the tools to succeed - the big question is does he have the heart. Attending Fitz' camp is a start in the right direction.

 

[Seymour Corn]

Don Majkowski

He's a 6 foot Pole.

:respect:

 

[Godsbrother]

I don't see me taking anyone from Cleveland's passing "attack".