Notes regarding Buy Low / Sell High: Grossman/Berrian (1 Viewer)

[CravenM]

Regarding the thought of selling Grossman and Berrian at a high value now:

I think if you made a comparison of those two talents to Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson 2 years ago, you might find it noteworthy.

Chad Johnson was picked as the 8th WR in the 2nd round in 2001 behind David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Santana Moss, Freddie Mitchell, Reggie Wayne and Quincy Morgan.

Berrian was picked 10th in the 3rd round in 2004 behind Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Darius Watts, Keary Colbert adn Derrick Hamilton

Both CJ and BB came from West Coast pro-style passing teams and are about about 6'1", 190. Since then, both have shown to been able to make great catches, stay healthy and get open in traffic.

CPalmer was labeled as overrated coming out of college (and a possible bust on the scale of Ryan Leaf) and Grossman wasn't highly regarded because of his height and Gator/Spurrier history. Rex was the runner up for the Heisman as a sophomore and probably should have won except for the sentiment to Eric Crouch - hindsight would tell people different.

I'm certainly a biased Gator (UF '85) but I think Rex Grossman was one of the best college QBs in history. He has a great arm, reads defenses, shrewd decision maker in the mold of Spurrier and always has a positive attitude (a' la Favre prior to this season). I doubted Palmer when he came into the league but he is every bit as studly as Peyton when it comes to NFL QBs

Grossman and Berrian have developed a HUGE groove much like Palmer and CJohnson for the last two years of not only completing long passes but intermediate passes as well. I think Berrian has the skill and opportunity to become a top 10 WR in the FFL due to opportunity, skill, defensive prowess, and proclivity of his QB (and coach) to throw deep.

Lastly, the Bengals have had a history of losing and sucking in every way possible and the same issues have been attributed to the Bears since Ditka left. I think the Bears could soon develop a different reputation as a good team with a great defense to a great team with a great offense and defense. They seem to currently be deep at every position and momentum on every front.

 

[Rushmore]

Regarding the thought of selling Grossman and Berrian at a high value now:I think if you made a comparison of those two talents to Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson 2 years ago, you might find it noteworthy.Chad Johnson was picked as the 8th WR in the 2nd round in 2001 behind David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Santana Moss, Freddie Mitchell, Reggie Wayne and Quincy Morgan.Berrian was picked 10th in the 3rd round in 2004 behind Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Darius Watts, Keary Colbert adn Derrick HamiltonBoth CJ and BB came from West Coast pro-style passing teams and are about about 6'1", 190. Since then, both have shown to been able to make great catches, stay healthy and get open in traffic.CPalmer was labeled as overrated coming out of college (and a possible bust on the scale of Ryan Leaf) and Grossman wasn't highly regarded because of his height and Gator/Spurrier history. Rex was the runner up for the Heisman as a sophomore and probably should have won except for the sentiment to Eric Crouch - hindsight would tell people different.I'm certainly a biased Gator (UF '85) but I think Rex Grossman was one of the best college QBs in history. He has a great arm, reads defenses, shrewd decision maker in the mold of Spurrier and always has a positive attitude (a' la Favre prior to this season). I doubted Palmer when he came into the league but he is every bit as studly as Peyton when it comes to NFL QBsGrossman and Berrian have developed a HUGE groove much like Palmer and CJohnson for the last two years of not only completing long passes but intermediate passes as well. I think Berrian has the skill and opportunity to become a top 10 WR in the FFL due to opportunity, skill, defensive prowess, and proclivity of his QB (and coach) to throw deep.Lastly, the Bengals have had a history of losing and sucking in every way possible and the same issues have been attributed to the Bears since Ditka left. I think the Bears could soon develop a different reputation as a good team with a great defense to a great team with a great offense and defense. They seem to currently be deep at every position and momentum on every front.

I happen to agree with Bloom on this but you make some interesting points. YOu see this happen all of the time where you keep expecting a guy that came out of nowhere and expect him to regress only to find that it doesn't happen. The cold weather argument could be valid though, regarding the Bears offense. I think their rb's are good targets right now.

 

[The_U]

Well thought out argument/presentation Craven. While I lean toward Bloom's side of the fence you did an excellent job stating your case.

U

 

[Cowboys#1]

i dont think there is much shot of berrian keeping up his present pace, hes the #1 wr in standard (non-ppr) leagues, he has a good shot of finishing in the top 7-10 but who knows what the cold weather (and the bears dominance) will do for him

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Regarding the thought of selling Grossman and Berrian at a high value now:I think if you made a comparison of those two talents to Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson 2 years ago, you might find it noteworthy.Chad Johnson was picked as the 8th WR in the 2nd round in 2001 behind David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner, Santana Moss, Freddie Mitchell, Reggie Wayne and Quincy Morgan.Berrian was picked 10th in the 3rd round in 2004 behind Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, Reggie Williams, Lee Evans, Michael Clayton, Michael Jenkins, Darius Watts, Keary Colbert adn Derrick HamiltonBoth CJ and BB came from West Coast pro-style passing teams and are about about 6'1", 190. Since then, both have shown to been able to make great catches, stay healthy and get open in traffic.CPalmer was labeled as overrated coming out of college (and a possible bust on the scale of Ryan Leaf) and Grossman wasn't highly regarded because of his height and Gator/Spurrier history. Rex was the runner up for the Heisman as a sophomore and probably should have won except for the sentiment to Eric Crouch - hindsight would tell people different.I'm certainly a biased Gator (UF '85) but I think Rex Grossman was one of the best college QBs in history. He has a great arm, reads defenses, shrewd decision maker in the mold of Spurrier and always has a positive attitude (a' la Favre prior to this season). I doubted Palmer when he came into the league but he is every bit as studly as Peyton when it comes to NFL QBsGrossman and Berrian have developed a HUGE groove much like Palmer and CJohnson for the last two years of not only completing long passes but intermediate passes as well. I think Berrian has the skill and opportunity to become a top 10 WR in the FFL due to opportunity, skill, defensive prowess, and proclivity of his QB (and coach) to throw deep.Lastly, the Bengals have had a history of losing and sucking in every way possible and the same issues have been attributed to the Bears since Ditka left. I think the Bears could soon develop a different reputation as a good team with a great defense to a great team with a great offense and defense. They seem to currently be deep at every position and momentum on every front.

All prognosticating is perception, which is in the eye of the beholder. Most situations contain the ingredients for more than one outcome. Berrian's speed is undeniable, and so is Grossman's arm. Grossman can just heave it up there and Berrian effortlessly runs under it. Grossman has been mostly putting the ball right where he wants to, and not having to face much pressure.If the Bears success as a team continues, I'll probably look bad for advising a sell high. I've already prematurely recommended it - I might just have a big blind spot here. They do have an astoundingly weak schedule that Grossman/Berrian could ride to some sickening production.

 

[My Hope Street Alias]

You make some good points. I'll add my voice to the crowd that says the cold weather will impact the Chicago air game in a significant way. Also, a minor point: I don't remember much, if any, of this feeling at the time that Palmer was overrated and that he was a potential Leaf-type bust. That's not my recollection at all.

 

[pantagrapher]

You make some good points. I'll add my voice to the crowd that says the cold weather will impact the Chicago air game in a significant way. Also, a minor point: I don't remember much, if any, of this feeling at the time that Palmer was overrated and that he was a potential Leaf-type bust. That's not my recollection at all.

I've heard this cold-weather argument a few times. I really don't think it will be the factor everyone thinks it will be. The Bears play two of their last four in domes, and I don't think December weather in Chicago is really that much worse than that in any other city above the Mason-Dixon line. Time will tell, but I'll go on record now as saying the weather's affect on the Bears offense vs. the weather's affect on other offenses in other cities will be negligible.

 

[el-gato-grande]

You make some good points. I'll add my voice to the crowd that says the cold weather will impact the Chicago air game in a significant way. Also, a minor point: I don't remember much, if any, of this feeling at the time that Palmer was overrated and that he was a potential Leaf-type bust. That's not my recollection at all.

I've heard this cold-weather argument a few times. I really don't think it will be the factor everyone thinks it will be. The Bears play two of their last four in domes, and I don't think December weather in Chicago is really that much worse than that in any other city above the Mason-Dixon line. Time will tell, but I'll go on record now as saying the weather's affect on the Bears offense vs. the weather's affect on other offenses in other cities will be negligible.

Spoken like a Chicagoland native. Come on now, you can get accustomed to the weather here over time, but don't kid yourself. There is a reason why Detroit and Minnesota both play in domes. The weather up here can be brutal late in the season. We just treat it as part of Soldier Fields unique charm. LOL.

 

[gman8343]

You make some good points. I'll add my voice to the crowd that says the cold weather will impact the Chicago air game in a significant way. Also, a minor point: I don't remember much, if any, of this feeling at the time that Palmer was overrated and that he was a potential Leaf-type bust. That's not my recollection at all.

I've heard this cold-weather argument a few times. I really don't think it will be the factor everyone thinks it will be. The Bears play two of their last four in domes, and I don't think December weather in Chicago is really that much worse than that in any other city above the Mason-Dixon line. Time will tell, but I'll go on record now as saying the weather's affect on the Bears offense vs. the weather's affect on other offenses in other cities will be negligible.

Spoken like a Chicagoland native. Come on now, you can get accustomed to the weather here over time, but don't kid yourself. There is a reason why Detroit and Minnesota both play in domes. The weather up here can be brutal late in the season. We just treat it as part of Soldier Fields unique charm. LOL.

So Brett Favre's numbers take a big dip every December?

 

[Sigfawn]

You make some good points. I'll add my voice to the crowd that says the cold weather will impact the Chicago air game in a significant way. Also, a minor point: I don't remember much, if any, of this feeling at the time that Palmer was overrated and that he was a potential Leaf-type bust. That's not my recollection at all.

I've heard this cold-weather argument a few times. I really don't think it will be the factor everyone thinks it will be. The Bears play two of their last four in domes, and I don't think December weather in Chicago is really that much worse than that in any other city above the Mason-Dixon line. Time will tell, but I'll go on record now as saying the weather's affect on the Bears offense vs. the weather's affect on other offenses in other cities will be negligible.

Spoken like a Chicagoland native. Come on now, you can get accustomed to the weather here over time, but don't kid yourself. There is a reason why Detroit and Minnesota both play in domes. The weather up here can be brutal late in the season. We just treat it as part of Soldier Fields unique charm. LOL.

So Brett Favre's numbers take a big dip every December?

Rex is the next Favre?

 

[MLBrandow]

You make some good points. I'll add my voice to the crowd that says the cold weather will impact the Chicago air game in a significant way. Also, a minor point: I don't remember much, if any, of this feeling at the time that Palmer was overrated and that he was a potential Leaf-type bust. That's not my recollection at all.

I've heard this cold-weather argument a few times. I really don't think it will be the factor everyone thinks it will be. The Bears play two of their last four in domes, and I don't think December weather in Chicago is really that much worse than that in any other city above the Mason-Dixon line. Time will tell, but I'll go on record now as saying the weather's affect on the Bears offense vs. the weather's affect on other offenses in other cities will be negligible.

Spoken like a Chicagoland native. Come on now, you can get accustomed to the weather here over time, but don't kid yourself. There is a reason why Detroit and Minnesota both play in domes. The weather up here can be brutal late in the season. We just treat it as part of Soldier Fields unique charm. LOL.

So Brett Favre's numbers take a big dip every December?

Brett Favre 3-yr average:Games 1-8 : 62.8%, 254.6ypg, 36TD/28INT

Games 9-16: 60.3% 243.6ypg, 21TD/23INT

Sept: 62.6%, 260.3ypg, 17TD/12INT

Oct: 63.4%, 253.5ypg, 19TD/15INT

Nov: 61.8%, 242.6ypg, 12TD/8INT

Dec: 58.9%, 244.9ypg, 6TD/15INT

 

[gman8343]

You make some good points. I'll add my voice to the crowd that says the cold weather will impact the Chicago air game in a significant way. Also, a minor point: I don't remember much, if any, of this feeling at the time that Palmer was overrated and that he was a potential Leaf-type bust. That's not my recollection at all.

I've heard this cold-weather argument a few times. I really don't think it will be the factor everyone thinks it will be. The Bears play two of their last four in domes, and I don't think December weather in Chicago is really that much worse than that in any other city above the Mason-Dixon line. Time will tell, but I'll go on record now as saying the weather's affect on the Bears offense vs. the weather's affect on other offenses in other cities will be negligible.

Spoken like a Chicagoland native. Come on now, you can get accustomed to the weather here over time, but don't kid yourself. There is a reason why Detroit and Minnesota both play in domes. The weather up here can be brutal late in the season. We just treat it as part of Soldier Fields unique charm. LOL.

So Brett Favre's numbers take a big dip every December?

Rex is the next Favre?

Who said that?If you believe the cold weather theory, then you don't want any QB on your fantasy team playing in Buffalo, NY, Denver, Green Bay, New England, etc. in December.

 

[boubucarow]

You make some good points. I'll add my voice to the crowd that says the cold weather will impact the Chicago air game in a significant way. Also, a minor point: I don't remember much, if any, of this feeling at the time that Palmer was overrated and that he was a potential Leaf-type bust. That's not my recollection at all.

I've heard this cold-weather argument a few times. I really don't think it will be the factor everyone thinks it will be. The Bears play two of their last four in domes, and I don't think December weather in Chicago is really that much worse than that in any other city above the Mason-Dixon line. Time will tell, but I'll go on record now as saying the weather's affect on the Bears offense vs. the weather's affect on other offenses in other cities will be negligible.

Spoken like a Chicagoland native. Come on now, you can get accustomed to the weather here over time, but don't kid yourself. There is a reason why Detroit and Minnesota both play in domes. The weather up here can be brutal late in the season. We just treat it as part of Soldier Fields unique charm. LOL.

So Brett Favre's numbers take a big dip every December?

Rex is the next Favre?

Who said that?If you believe the cold weather theory, then you don't want any QB on your fantasy team playing in Buffalo, NY, Denver, Green Bay, New England, etc. in December.

For real, because Jim Kelly, Vinny Testaverde, John Elway, Brett Favre, Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady, Bernie Kosar, or Carson Palmer haven't had great fantasy years in cold weather cities before.Next argument please.

 

[boubucarow]

Let's add Sterling Sharpe, Derrick Alexander, Santana Moss, Chad Johnson, Javon Walker, Hines Ward, Eric Moulds, etc... to the list of playes that shouldn't have been top 10 receivers because of cold weather.

 

[Golden]

Bernard Berian is not exactly a sleeper that came out of nowhere. His junior year of college was superb even though he was often overshadowed by David Carr at Fresno State. He was slated to be a late first round draft pick, but he hurt his knee in the bowl game and had to return hobbled for much of his senior year.

At the time, he set the NCAA record for all-purpose yards from scrimmage in a single season his junior year. It is safe to mention him in the same breath with Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson, at least in terms of collegiate excellence. Those were the two previous Western Athletic Conference record holders for all-purpose yardage, something Berrian eclipsed them in his junior season when he totaled 2,591 yards. Even more impressive when you consider he but he had far fewer touches per game at wideout than those two did at running back.

That being said, even though the bears might run more in the future, especially with the emergence of Cedric Benson, their schedule is ridiculously easy, and Berrian should be able to dominate.

 

[LuckyOne]

A couple of years ago Muhsin was a sell high this time of year. We all saw how that turned out.

 

[Marc Levin]

Good posting, CravenM.

The Bears schedule is ridiculously easy - I'd be looking to buy Grossman if possible.

 

[Marc Levin]

Good point LuckyONe - the overlooked receiver in that offense is Mush,

He's a decent buy LOW guy right now with thee emergence of Berrian and Davis.

 

[LuckyOne]

Good point LuckyONe - the overlooked receiver in that offense is Mush,He's a decent buy LOW guy right now with thee emergence of Berrian and Davis.

Mush is definately a buy low. He has been putting up good numbers, with great potential. However, I don't think Berrian will take a step back either. Grossman looks to him nearly every play. The Bears schedule is a insanely easy(ARI, SF, MIA, NYJ, MIN, STL, DET, GBP), with a few tough matchups (NYG, NEP, TBB). I just don't see a receiver that is making plays like Berrian is, who has his QB looking to him all the time, and is facing such easy competition, taking a step back, much lessing falling flat. Maybe I'm wrong, but the only argument I hear against Grossman/Berrian is "it's Grossman/Berrian". Isn't this the time of year to rely on what we are seeing instead of what we thought we would see.

 

[Marc Levin]

Good point LuckyONe - the overlooked receiver in that offense is Mush,

He's a decent buy LOW guy right now with thee emergence of Berrian and Davis.

Mush is definately a buy low. He has been putting up good numbers, with great potential. However, I don't think Berrian will take a step back either. Grossman looks to him nearly every play. The Bears schedule is a insanely easy(ARI, SF, MIA, NYJ, MIN, STL, DET, GBP), with a few tough matchups (NYG, NEP, TBB).

Both should be in the "easy" category for passing matchups:FP allowed per game to receivers - NFL overall pass yardage allowed rank:

NYG: 22 - 16th

NE: 22.2 - 25th

The only truly tough pass D that Chi will face is Tampa Bay.

 

[Torque666]

FFL playoff Schedual, dont see weather mattering much here

14 Mon, Dec 11 at St. Louis Tickets ESPN 8:30 PM

15 Sun, Dec 17 Tampa Bay Tickets FOX 1:00 PM

16 Sun, Dec 24 at Detroit Tickets FOX 1:00 PM

 

[LuckyOne]

Good point LuckyONe - the overlooked receiver in that offense is Mush,

He's a decent buy LOW guy right now with thee emergence of Berrian and Davis.

Mush is definately a buy low. He has been putting up good numbers, with great potential. However, I don't think Berrian will take a step back either. Grossman looks to him nearly every play. The Bears schedule is a insanely easy(ARI, SF, MIA, NYJ, MIN, STL, DET, GBP), with a few tough matchups (NYG, NEP, TBB).

Both should be in the "easy" category for passing matchups:FP allowed per game to receivers - NFL overall pass yardage allowed rank:

NYG: 22 - 16th

NE: 22.2 - 25th

The only truly tough pass D that Chi will face is Tampa Bay.

Even better. So, does anyone have a good reason why Berrian is a sell high?

 

[BlackHole]

Good point LuckyONe - the overlooked receiver in that offense is Mush,

He's a decent buy LOW guy right now with thee emergence of Berrian and Davis.

Mush is definately a buy low. He has been putting up good numbers, with great potential. However, I don't think Berrian will take a step back either. Grossman looks to him nearly every play. The Bears schedule is a insanely easy(ARI, SF, MIA, NYJ, MIN, STL, DET, GBP), with a few tough matchups (NYG, NEP, TBB).

Both should be in the "easy" category for passing matchups:FP allowed per game to receivers - NFL overall pass yardage allowed rank:

NYG: 22 - 16th

NE: 22.2 - 25th

The only truly tough pass D that Chi will face is Tampa Bay.

Even better. So, does anyone have a good reason why Berrian is a sell high?

Only if someone wants to sell me Alexander low or something ridiculous like that. We've got this year's Fitzgerald going, plug him in the line-up and sale your name WR's you drafted.

 

[cubbie5150]

Well, as Mushin owner, I only hope that all this attention Berrian is getting translates to more attention from D coordinators so Mushin can get lighter coverage...