Nutty 3-way tie scenario ATL-PHIL-CHIC (1 Viewer)

[QuizGuy66]

Ugh, made a mistake and forgot a Carolina win Fixed below:

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So if there's a 3-way tie with Atlanta, Chicago and Philly all at 12-4 as division winners (NO either loses to or ties with TB) it goes to strength of victory, right?

Nobody has a head-to-head sweep (for or against) so that's out.

They all would have the same conference record (9-3).

They don't have enough common games between the 3 of them, so that's out.

Strength of Victory would be next.

Now to get to the above scenario the things have to happen would be:

Week 16

Phil d Minn

NO d Atl

Week 17

Car d Atl

Chic d GB

Phil d Dal

TB d NO or TB t NO

based on the the above and adding in games where the above teams have beaten both teams that are playing and automatically get 1 'win' I get the following.

Atlanta willl have 89 SOV wins (88 1/2 if NO-TB tie) and could get 1 more if Cleveland d. Pitt

Philly will have 86 SOV wins and could get up to 3 more if Indy d Ten, Giants d Wash, and SF d Arizona

Chicago will have 81 SOV wins and could get 1 more if Mia d NE

So...

If Philly doesn't get enough good results out of Indy/Giants/SF/Pitt, Atlanta would win the tiebreaker at this step and Atlanta would be seed #1. They would then revert to Step 1 to break the Philly/Chicago tie and Chicago would be #2, Philly would be #3.

If 4 of Indy/Giants/SF/Pitt/TB win and the other ties, then Philly would have 89 SOV wins vs 88 1/2 SOV wins for Atlanta and therefore Philly would be the #1 seed.

They would revert to Step 1 to break the Atlanta/Chicago tie and Chicago would be #2 based on common opponents. Atlanta would be #3.

If Atlanta and Philly end up tied with 89 (or 88 1/2) SOV wins, Chicago drops out at that tiebraker step. Atlanta and Philly would go back to step #1 which would give Philly the #1 seed based on H-2-H win. Atlanta/Chicago revert to step 1 which again makes Chicago #2 based on common opponents. Atlanta would be #3.

So as nutty as it sounds, a situation could arise where all the 4pm games are done except for SF-Arizona, those teams could go to overtime and the fate of Atlanta or Philly being the #1 or #3 seed could be riding on that game

Have to admit I'm kinda rooting for NO and Philly to win this week so this nutty scenario has to get published

-QG

 

[LokiKx]

Wouldn't Atlanta have to lose 2 games for this to happen? If I recall the last game they play is versus the Panthers. Just don't see this happening.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Wouldn't Atlanta have to lose 2 games for this to happen? If I recall the last game they play is versus the Panthers. Just don't see this happening.

Actually probability of things happening has nothing to do with scenarios -QG

 

[Hack Attack]

Wouldn't Atlanta have to lose 2 games for this to happen? If I recall the last game they play is versus the Panthers. Just don't see this happening.

Shouldn't but...1. Division game2. Atlanta coming off a short week playing tonight3. Carolina coming off a long week after playing Thursday night.4 more days to prepare could be huge, Atlanta is fortunate this game is at their place.

 

[MDSkinner]

So if there's a 3-way tie with Atlanta, Chicago and Philly all at 12-4 as division winners (NO either loses to or ties with TB) it goes to strength of victory, right?

Nobody has a head-to-head sweep (for or against) so that's out.

-QG

Chicago beat Philly and Philly beat ATL. Surely that plays into this somewhere. Am I wrong on that one?ETA: Just saw this in the other thread.

Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

So in this case it would not mean anything which seems nuts. I can't fathom it coming down to this three way tie but if it did this would be interesting for sure.

 

[QuizGuy66]

So if there's a 3-way tie with Atlanta, Chicago and Philly all at 12-4 as division winners (NO either loses to or ties with TB) it goes to strength of victory, right?

Nobody has a head-to-head sweep (for or against) so that's out.

They all would have the same conference record (9-3).

They don't have enough common games between the 3 of them, so that's out.

Strength of Victory would be next.

Now to get to the above scenario the things have to happen would be:

Week 16

Phil d Minn

NO d Atl

Week 17

Car d Atl

Chic d GB

Phil d Dal

TB d NO or TB t NO

based on the the above and adding in games where the above teams have beaten both teams that are playing and automatically get 1 'win' I get the following.

Atlanta willl have 88 SOV wins (87 1/2 if NO-TB tie) and could get 1 more if Cleveland d. Pitt

Philly will have 86 SOV wins and could get up to 3 more if Indy d Ten, Giants d Wash, and SF d Arizona

Chicago will have 81 SOV wins and could get 1 more if Mia d NE

So...

If Philly doesn't get enough good results out of Indy/Giants/SF/Pitt, Atlanta would win the tiebreaker at this step and Atlanta would be seed #1. They would then revert to Step 1 to break the Philly/Chicago tie and Chicago would be #2, Philly would be #3.

If all of Indy/Giants/SF/Pitt win, then Philly would have 89 SOV wins vs 88 SOV wins for Atlanta and therefore Philly would be the #1 seed.

They would revert to Step 1 to break the Atlanta/Chicago tie and Chicago would be #2 based on common opponents. Atlanta would be #3.

If Atlanta and Philly end up tied with 88 (or 87 1/2) SOV wins, Chicago drops out at that tiebraker step. Atlanta and Philly would go back to step #1 which would give Philly the #1 seed based on H-2-H win. Atlanta/Chicago revert to step 1 which again makes Chicago #2 based on common opponents. Atlanta would be #3.

So as nutty as it sounds, a situation could arise where all the 4pm games are done except for SF-Arizona, those teams could go to overtime and the fate of Atlanta or Philly being the #1 or #3 seed could be riding on that game

Have to admit I'm kinda rooting for NO and Philly to win this week so this nutty scenario has to get published

-QG

Chicago beat Philly and Philly beat ATL. Surely that plays into this somewhere. Am I wrong on that one?

Doesn't play. Needs to be a head-to-head sweep. Either one team beats the other two, or one team loses to the other two.

-QG

 

[Saint]

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

[*]Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

[*]Strength of victory.

[*]Strength of schedule.

[*]Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

[*]Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

[*]Best net points in conference games.

[*]Best net points in all games.

[*]Best net touchdowns in all games.

[*]Coin toss

NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

Edit to add: Sorry, I posted Division tiebreaker rules earlier.

So you're spot on QG... #1-#3 not applicable. According to About.com, Strength of Victory is defined as "A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten."

Therefore, ATL SV = .496 win %, PHI SV = .473 win %, and CHI SV = .461 win % (Assuming my picks are right) Of course this is moot if NO wins out... they would take #1 seed with a conference record of 10-2 and ATL falls to #5 wildcard... which means PHI-CHI is head-2-head and PHI becomes the #3 seed.

 

[AB in DC]

I don't think the NYG-Washington game matters since Philly beat both of them and Atlanta played neither.

But your calculations seem to correct according to Yahoo; click the link and then switch the SF-Ariz game to see.

 

[AB in DC]

Wouldn't Atlanta have to lose 2 games for this to happen? If I recall the last game they play is versus the Panthers. Just don't see this happening.

I think it needs Cleveland to beat Pittsburgh and for Tennessee to win at Indy, too.

 

[Saint]

I don't think the NYG-Washington game matters since Philly beat both of them and Atlanta played neither.

But your calculations seem to correct according to Yahoo; click the link and then switch the SF-Ariz game to see.

You can use the ESPN Generator and get different results for the seeding. Should be interesting.

 

[Insein]

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

[*]Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).

[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

[*]Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

[*]Strength of victory.

[*]Strength of schedule.

[*]Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

[*]Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

[*]Best net points in common games.

[*]Best net points in all games.

[*]Best net touchdowns in all games.

[*]Coin toss

NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

Based on that, for #1:

PHI would be 1-1, ATL 0-1, and CHI 1-0. So in essence wouldn't CHI become the #1 seed with 1.000, PHI #2 @ .500, and ATL at #3 with 0.000?

Edit to add... if that is not the case... then CHI would be #1 seed at 6-0 division, PHI #2 with 5-1 division, and ATL #3 with 4-2 division (as they would have to lose the last two games, which are both division games)

Division games do not matter for tie-breakers between teams in different divisions. As stated above, Head to Head only applies if 1 team swept the other 2 or 1 team lost to the other 2. So if the Eagles beat the bears, all would be moot.

 

[Saint]

Division games do not matter for tie-breakers between teams in different divisions. As stated above, Head to Head only applies if 1 team swept the other 2 or 1 team lost to the other 2. So if the Eagles beat the bears, all would be moot.

Good catch... I was editing as you posted to set it at Wildcard settings.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I don't think the NYG-Washington game matters since Philly beat both of them and Atlanta played neither.

But your calculations seem to correct according to Yahoo; click the link and then switch the SF-Ariz game to see.

It matters because Philly beat the Giants twice and beat Washington only once.Thanks for the link showing the yahoo generator backing up my post I had some trouble somehow doing that myself

-QG

 

[greenline]

Does anyone know when the NFL schedules the divisional round games? Do they wait until after the results if the Wild Card round to decide who plays on Saturday vs Sunday?

 

[QuizGuy66]

Does anyone know when the NFL schedules the divisional round games? Do they wait until after the results if the Wild Card round to decide who plays on Saturday vs Sunday?

I think they set those dates once the brackets are known. (Let's say the top 4 are NE, Baltimore, Atlanta, Chicago).They'll say: Baltimore will host the early saturday game, Atlanta will host the Saturday night game, Chicago will host the early sunday game, NE will host the late sunday game.-QG

 

[greenline]

Does anyone know when the NFL schedules the divisional round games? Do they wait until after the results if the Wild Card round to decide who plays on Saturday vs Sunday?

I think they set those dates once the brackets are known. (Let's say the top 4 are NE, Baltimore, Atlanta, Chicago).They'll say: Baltimore will host the early saturday game, Atlanta will host the Saturday night game, Chicago will host the early sunday game, NE will host the late sunday game.-QG

Not that anyone cares, but I am scheduling a 30th surprise party for my wife and it's on the 15th (Saturday) so if NE played Sunday night that would be perfect. Do you think that's the case or are you just giving an example? Thanks QG!!

 

[QuizGuy66]

Does anyone know when the NFL schedules the divisional round games? Do they wait until after the results if the Wild Card round to decide who plays on Saturday vs Sunday?

I think they set those dates once the brackets are known. (Let's say the top 4 are NE, Baltimore, Atlanta, Chicago).They'll say: Baltimore will host the early saturday game, Atlanta will host the Saturday night game, Chicago will host the early sunday game, NE will host the late sunday game.-QG

Not that anyone cares, but I am scheduling a 30th surprise party for my wife and it's on the 15th (Saturday) so if NE played Sunday night that would be perfect. Do you think that's the case or are you just giving an example? Thanks QG!!

Just an example The 2nd game on Sunday will start 4, not 8.-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

So quick summary.

A 3-way tie between Atlanta, Philly, and Chicago occurs if:

Week 16

Phil d. Minn

NO d. Atl

Week 17

Car d. Atl

Chic d. GB

Phil d. Dal

TB d. NO or TB t. NO

In this scenario, Chicago is #2 no matter what.

Atlanta will be #1 and Philly #3 unless:

(if TB d NO above):

Pitt d. Clev

Ind d. Ten

Giants d Wash

SF d Ariz

(if TB ties NO above):

and all 4 of Pitt/Ind/Giants/SF win

or 3 of Pitt/Ind/Giants/SF win and the other one of the 4 ties.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

-QG